Wednesday Service Plays

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Gator's NBA/CBB 70% Report

NBA

Wednesday: Play Over NBA home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 off 2 or more consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team 49-12 Over since 1996 (80.3%) PLAY: Seattle / Boston OVER 203

CBB:

Wednesday: Play Under CBB Neutral court teams against the total off 2 consecutive road losses of 10 or more, with a losing record on the year.28-5 Under since 1997 (84.8%) PLAY: Bowling Green / Toledo UNDER 122.5

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Josh Dean

500* Jazz -7

400* UNC Charlotte +1.5

200* Cleveland/Jersey Over 188

FREE B: Cal Poly-Slo

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Sports Investors

WVU
GS/Tor over

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Nick Parsons

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers
Pick: 1 unit Philadelphia Flyers -154

Member Pick: Play ON Philadelphia Flyers $ line (-) vs Toronto @ 7:05 ET The Flyers are coming off of a ridiculous loss last night. They led 3-0 early in the third period but allowed Toronto to rally back and win the game in overtime. That leaves the Flyers in a foul mood and they will most assuredly take advantage of this opportunity at quick revenge as they get the Maple Leafs in Philly for a rematch on the very next night. Last night, the Flyers simply made the mistake of counting the win before it was in the books and, ultimately, Toronto made them pay for this. Note that Philly is now 5-1-2 in their last eight games as, after a tough stretch, the Flyers have now earned points in 7 of their last 8 games. They wont let this opportunity pass them by tonight as its payback time!

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Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on San Antonio Spurs +1.5

The Spurs rebounded from back-to-back defeats with a big win over Denver Monday.  This is a big time division game tonight, and San Antonio will show the Hornets that it is still the team to beat in the Southwest.  The Spurs are 11-3 SU and 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games against the Hornets.  The Spurs are 4-1 SU and ATS at New Orleans the past 3 seasons.  The Road team is a staggering 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  With Parker being one of the few guards which can match Chris Paul's quickness, New Orleans' point guard is not going to be able to get anything easy tonight.  The Spurs have really kicked things in high gear, winning 16 of their last 19 games.  Take San Antonio to keep rolling here.

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Matt Fargo

Rhode Island vs. NC Charlotte
Play: Rhode Island   
 
We have a quick turnaround revenge spot for Rhode Island tonight. In the regular season finale, the 49ers went to Rhode Island and took out the Rams by 10 points and while it was a solid win, it was more fortunate than anything else. Charlotte shot just 38.3 percent from the floor but 48 percent from long range, nailing 12 three-pointers. The Rams only made three while shooting a dismal 14.3 percent. Charlotte is only shooting 35.1 percent for the season so if ever there was an aberration, that was it.

You can definitely make an argument that Charlotte comes in as the hotter teams as it has won three straight while Rhode Island has dropped six of its last seven games. The loss to the 49ers dropped Rhode Island off the bubble meaning it likely has to win this tournament to get an invite to the Big Dance. Charlotte’s only shot is similar so this is an equally big game for both sides but it comes down to matchups and that is where the Rams have the advantages.

Rhode Island has a rebounding margin of +2.9 rpg on the season compared to -0.8 rpg for the 49ers. Kahiem Seawright grabbed 15 rebounds in the loss on Saturday and that was his 5th straight games that he has recorded double-digit totals in rebounds. The team dominated down low in that final game and a similar effort this time around should propel the Rams to a win. The difference last game was second leading scorer Jimmy Baron, who went 1-9, including 0-8 from long range, and scored only two points.

The offense is better than what was on display against Charlotte. The Rams went eight minutes without a field goal against the 49ers down the stretch in the second half and that was obviously the difference as they were outscored by 13 points in the half. So far this year, the Rams are averaging 15.2 apg on 29.0 field goals per game which is an assist percentage of 52.4 percent. This year, in games with 14 or more assists, Rhode Island is 15-3. Charlotte allows 16 apg on the road this season.

That long range debacle in the last game actually sets the Rams up in a great situation here. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are shooting between 45 and 47.5 percent going up against a team allowing between 40 and 42.5 percent after 15 or more games, after a game where they made 20 percent or worse of their three-point shots. This situation is 39-17 ATS (69.6 percent) over the last five seasons. The Rams keep their slim hopes alive with a win tonight. Play Rhode Island Rams 1 Unit

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  Tony Karpinski
Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh   

Pittsburgh -8.5 It is obvious that this young Cincinnati team has packed things in for the season. They played with no intensity or emotion in their blowout loss at Connecticut. Now they have to face a Pittsburgh squad who thrives in the Big East tournament. The Panthers played for a big part of the season without starting point guard, Levance Fields. He is the key to their offense. Pittsburgh has begun to show signs of the team from earlier in the season. The Panthers also need this game to solidify their place in the NCAA tournament in addition to getting a better seed. Pittsburgh is too talented, and they need this game too much for Cincinnati to keep it close. Pittsburgh has made it to six of the last seven Big East tournament championships. Head coach Jamie Dixon knows how to get through this tournament, and Cincinnati will be their first victim. The Panthers will destroy the Bearcats, winning by close to 20 points. 

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John Ryan

Tulane vs. Marshall
Play: Under   

Ai Simulator 3* graded play UNDER Tulane/Marshall – AiS shows a 72% probability that 130 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 42-10 UNDER since 1997. Play under with neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points in a game involving 2 slow-down teams attempting <=55 shots/game after 15+ games and in a game involving two average rebounding teams sporting a +/-3 rpg differential on the season. This system is already a perfect 6-0 on the season and my research clearly shows this will be win #7. Tulane had lost 8 straight games until they defeated East Carolina by just 2 points and were installed as a 9.5 point favorite. These losing ways actually place them into several solid roles for the UNDER to win the money. Tulane is 13-4 UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season; 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 UNDER in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Take the UNDER

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Erik Scheponik

Colorado State vs. Wyoming
Play: Wyoming   

Long season marred by offseason attrition, youth, and injuries comes to end for the Rams today. They have to play this one without big C Creason in the middle, and quite frankly the Cowboys, even with their poor outside shooting (29% 3FG in conf. play) own every other advantage in the game. Wyoming won both meetings by double digits during the regular season and that was with Creason in the lineup for CSU. They are off of a loss, and that's a nice little starting angle when laying points in conference tourney openers. Price looks just a bit short, especially when the Rams backup C, Aguilar is limited due to injury as well. Cowboys will own the boards here. Wyoming by 10 

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Rocketman Sports

Long Beach State vs. Cal Irvine
Play: Long Beach State   

Long Beach State is 7-1 ATS last 3 years when playing on Wednesday. Cal Irvine is 1-8 ATS last 3 years in neutral court games. Cal Irvine is 7-18 ATS since 1997 and 1-8 ATS last 3 years in all tournament games. 49ers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Anteaters are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Anteaters are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite. Anteaters are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. We'll recommend a small play on Long Beach State tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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Black Widow Sports


1* on Atlanta Hawks +6

The Atlanta Hawks are 8-2 straight up in their last 10 home meetings with the Houston Rockets.  The Hawks have won 3 straight home games over Houston as well.  This is a scary game for the Rockets as they try to extend their winning streak to 19 games.  This will be Houston’s toughest test in 8 games where they have played 7 of their last 8 contests at home.  Now they hit the road against a very hungry Hawks’ squad that is fighting for their playoff lives in the Eastern Conference.  Houston is 4-14 ATS after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 3 seasons.  Atlanta is great defensively and will limit the open 3-point looks the Rockets have become accustomed to.  The 19-game winning streak ends tonight.  Take Atlanta and the points.

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Priceless Picks

1 Unit on New York Knicks -2

With the Heat shutting Wade down for the year, it's going to get even worse for Miami.  Miami is 6-25 SU in home games this season and just 8-22-1 ATS.  NY is an incredible 24-10 ATS at Miami since 1996.  The Heat are 9-22 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons, 0-8 ATS in home games against Atlantic division opponents this season, and 1-11 ATS in a home game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season.  The Knicks have been struggling, but they will take advantage of a golden opportunity to get back in the win column against a down and out Heat squad.

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Info Plays

3* on Sonics/Celtics UNDER 203

The Sonics and Celtics will play tonight in a low scoring affair with a combined score of UNDER 200 points.  Boston is giving up just 88.7 points per game at home.  The Celtics are yielding just 86.8 points per game over their last 5 games.  Seattle just played Indiana last night and we don’t expect the Sonics to post more than 80 points in their second game of a back-to-back.  Especially against the league’s best defense in Boston.  Seattle is 23-13 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season.  Seattle is 15-5 UNDER versus good foul drawing teams - attempting more than 27 free throws/game this season.  Boston is 50-27 UNDER in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.  Bet the UNDER 203 points.

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Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Seattle +17.5

I think the oddsmakers have gotten a little carried away here with this line.  With Boston taking on the Jazz Friday, I expect them to get caught looking ahead here and come out a little flat.  The Sonics are 39-19 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.  Boston is just 3-13 ATS in home games after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.  The SuperSonics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.  The Celtics are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater.  The Underdog is an impressive 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take the points.

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Black Magic Sports

1 Unit on Rhode Island -1.5

Rhode Island has hit a wall to end the season, but they know they still have one last shot at making the NCAA Tournament by running the table in the A-10 conference tournament starting tonight.  This is a very talented team that knows they are capable of winning the whole thing.  Rhode Island just lost to Charlotte to end their regular season.  Now it’s revenge time where Rhode Island is 34-15 ATS in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread since 1997.  Charlotte is 5-13 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.  Charlotte is 6-16 ATS in road games in all tournament games since 1997.  Look for a revived Rhode Island team on the court tonight.  Cash in with Rhode Island as the favorite.

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Moneylockoftheday

Junior's Pick
West Virginia -7.5

Digger's Pick
Wyoming -6.5

Hawker's Pick
Ball St / E Michigan Under 120
Cleveland/ New Jersey Over 188

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Drew Gordon

1. 400,000* Charlotte
2. 50,000* Duquesne
3. 50,000* Pittsburgh
4. 50,000* 76ers

1. Charlotte- Talk about two teams headed in opposite directions, as the Rams face-off with the 49ers for the second time in less than a week tonight in the First Round of the A-10 Tourney tonight.

We learned several things from their most recent meeting, a 74-64 Charlotte outright win at Rhode Island as a 6-point dog Saturday. First and foremost, the Rams have decided that playing defense isn't important, getting torched by Leemire Goldwire for 34 points in that contest. But what else is new? Rhode Island's defense has been terrible of late, allowing a mind-boggling 86 ppg on 46% shooting over their last 5 games (no surprise they're 1-4 SUATS over that span).

Herein lies the problem for Rhode Island, as the 49ers have shored up their offense, averaging 80 ppg over their last 3 games - all wins and covers! They're led by Goldwire, but Lamont Mack has been hot from outside, while forwards Coley and Wilderness have been solid defensively and on the boards. Point guard Dijuan Harris has a great assist:turnover ratio (95 to 36), and was critcal in the 49ers win over the Rams 4 days ago (9 points, 4 assists, 6 boards, ZERO turnovers).

Finally, while some critics are calling for a Rhode Island "revenge effort" tonight, I'm not convinced. Fact of the matter is the Rams are playing piss-poor ball right now, going 2-7 SUATS over their last 9 games. They had their chance at home against this Charlotte team and failed miserably... Now you want them to do it on a neutral court? Sorry Rhode Island-backers, you're 14-1 start was nice, but the Rams have gotten exposed over their last 9 games, and you best believe the 49ers put the finishing touches on the Rams collapse tonight!

Take Charlotte plus the points over Rhode Island as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Duquesne- From mid-to-late February this Explorers team was rolling, with impressive outright wins at St. Joseph's, against Dayton, at Duquesne, and at Fordham... Since then they've fallen apart, losing 3 in a row SUATS, including blowout losses at Massachusetts and against Temple. This is the classic example of a team that peaked too early, and now they pay the price.

Duquesne meanwhile, went through almost the opposite, struggling mightily from mid-February to early March, before getting their heads on straight in their season finale, crushing Saint Louis 85-58. What was most impressive about that game, was they did it with Shawn James being on the floor only 6 minutes, as he comes back from a shoulder injury. F Keiron Achara stepped up HUGE in his absence, dropping in 24 points (12-12 free throws) and 4 blocks... Look for more of the same tonight, against a good, but not great Explorers frontline.

Unlike the Explorers, the Dukes seem to have found their rhythm once again, dropping 85 points on a solid Saint Louis defense. They shot 56% from the floor and committed only 11 turnovers in that game, and remember James only played 6 minutes. The fact La Salle's defense has been non-existent over their last 5 games cannot be ignored, as they're allowing 85 ppg on 49% shooting over that span... And you saw what happened to the Billikens when they allowed similar numbers to the Dukes sin their season finale!

Finally, you remember the last time these two teams played, a 75-72 La Salle outright road win as an 11-point underdog. Well boys, payback is a bitch, and you'll see just how differently these two teams are playing this time around. The last time out, La Salle was on fire and Duquesne was on ice... This time around, the tables have turned, as the Dukes get their redemption and grab the cash in the process, overwhelming a struggling Explorers defense in this one.

Take Duquesne comfortably over La Salle in A-10 Tourney First Round action.

3. Pittsburgh- I can understand why bettors would side with Cincinnati in this contest, mainly because they've played the Panthers close in their last two meetings, but that would be a mistake tonight and here's why:

First and foremost, it took him some time for him to get back into "game shape," but Pitt PG Levance Fields is playing great basketball right now. His last 3 games have been rock-solid, averaging 13 ppg, 6 assists/game, and commiting only 6 turnovers over that span! He is the engine that keeps this Pitt offense on track, and it shows, as the Panthers are dropping in 80 ppg over their last 3 games alone!

Second, did you watch any Bearcats basketball over the last 3 weeks or so? If you did, then you saw this Cincy team collpase down the stretch, losing 5 in a row (1-4 ATS). They've struggled mightily just to score points, averaging 60 ppg on just 37% shooting over their last 5 games! Granted, it came against some solid competition, but the way Pitt's offense is playing right now, the Bearcats will be hard-pressed to keep this game even moderately competitive.

The last piece of the puzzle is the venue, Madison Square Garden, where the Panthers have had two of their better wins this season! They beat Duke 65-54 in OT as a 6-point dog, and also annihilated St. John's 81-57 as a 6-point favorite there less than a month later. In other words, while this is suppost to be a neutral court, make no mistake, the Panthers like playing on the big stage, and it'll show tonight.
Bottom line, look for Pittsburgh to take advantage of a struggling Cincinnati team in this one. They'll run their offense to perfection, with Fields distributing and Young and Blair owning their match ups. In the end, the Panthers create enough separation to both win and cover this contest at Madison Square Garden tonight, where they're already 2-0 SUATS this season... Make it 3-0 after this one!

Take Pittsburgh BIG over Cincinnati in this Big East First Round match up.

4. 76ers- Granted, the 76ers lost a tough one at home to the Celtics in their last match up, but let's not lose sight of the big picture, which is that Philly has been playing great basketball of late, winning 12 of their last 16 games. Look for them to keep this game within the number, as they regroup from a poor effort against Boston.

Look guys, there's no doubt the Pistons have owned this series, but in this case, they just might get caught napping in this one. Why? Because Detroit just clinched a playoff spot, and if they decide to exhale a bit, you know damn well this 76ers team will make them pay. Note, Philly is fighting to get into the playoffs for the first time since the 2004-05 season, and that in and of itself is strong motivating factor.

Another critical factor to consider is that while the Pistons have been winning games, they haven't been covering, going 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games. That includes two home games against sub-par competition, against Seattle (100-97 as 15-point favorite) and against Chicago in their last one (116-109 as 9-point favorite).

Needless to say, the 76ers are playing MUCH better basketball than either one of the those teams, and is more than capable of covering in this spot.

Finally, let's talk about the 76ers road play, which has been a boon to bettors, going 4-1 ATS over their last 5 away. The only team they had trouble with was Golden State, but against more classical halfcourt teams (similar to Detroit), they've been money. That's thanks in large part to a red-hot Philly offense, averaging 109 ppg on 52% shooting over their last 5 games. Likely won't get that many against a great Pistons defense, but their balanced attack will keep it close.

Bottom line, this is a perfect example of the Pistons being overvalued at home, especially considering their last two at the Palace (Seattle, Chicago). 76ers should be extremely disappointed at their home effort against Boston in their last one, so expect them to come out firing tonight. In the end, Pistons may win, but the 76ers grab the cash!

Take the 76ers plus the points over the Pistons in this NBA match up.

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Rocketman Sports

NCAAB
3* California -1 1/2

NBA
3* Utah -7 1/2
3* Golden State -9

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Atslocks.com

10 Units Toledo -1 Vs Bowling Green
5 Units Miami -9 Over Buffalo

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