Tuesday Service Plays
Re: Tuesday Service Plays
Louisiana Tech +6.5
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 152 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.
The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.
Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows (ATS = against-the-spread) –
LOUISIANA TECH covers when they play in:
A conference game: 10-5 ATS last 15 games
A game after a conference game: 10-5 ATS last 15 games
A game after allowing at least 80 pts: 6-1 ATS last 7 games, 10-3 last 13 games
A game vs a losing team: 9-1 ATS last 10 games
SAN JOSE STATE fails to cover when they play in:
A game where the total is between 130-139.5: 4-11 ATS last 15 games
A game where they’re favored: 0-5 ATS last 5 games; 6-11 last 17 games
The month of March: 0-6 ATS last 6 games
A game after a loss to a conference opponent: 3-7 ATS last 10 games
A game after failing to cover at least 3 in a row: 4-10 ATS last 14 games and 16-28 last 44 games
A game vs a losing team: 2-8 ATS last 10 games
GO WITH LOUISIANA TECH +6.5
Re: Tuesday Service Plays
Portland Trail Blazers @ Minnesota Timberwolves u189.0
The Portland Trail Blazers and Minnesota Timberwolves are two offensively challenged basketball teams, and we do not expect much scoring when the two square off tonight.
The Blazers are coming off of an 88-80 yawner of a loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers last night, and the Under is 10-5, 66.7 percent when Portland has played with no rest this season. They are averaging just 93.7 points per game on the road for the season, and not too surprisingly, the Under is 9-3 in Portland’s last 12 road games. Most incredibly, the Under is 26-10, 72.2 percent in all Blazers conference games this season!
Timberwolves are averaging 93.6 points per game overall with the Under going 35-25-2, 60.3 percent in all of their games. This is also their first game back home after a three-game Western swing, a situation where many teams come out sluggishly.
These teams combined for 169 points in a 90-79 Portland victory the last time they played in January right here in this building, and we look for a similar type of game here.
Pick: Blazers, Timberwolves Under 189.5
Louisiana Tech +6.5
It won’t be pretty, but in what should be a soppy game, we actually see value in the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs catching this many points vs. the San Jose State Spartans.
After all, this game is being played in Las Cruces, New Mexico, and both of these teams have been equally inept away from home. San Jose finished at 4-11 on the road while losing by an average of -10.7 points per game, nit exactly what you want in a six-point favorite! Besides, the Spartans are in poor current form, having lost their last five games overall both straight up and against the spread, including an 87-83 loss to these Bulldogs in the regular season finale on Saturday.
Yes, Louisiana Tech has been awful on the rod themselves, but at least they enter this tournament with some momentum, as that win over San Jose Saturday was their second straight following an upset win over Hawaii. Also, as bad as Louisiana Tech was SU this season (6-23), they actually had a winning 14-11 ATS record.
Finally, the Bulldogs actually covered both head-to-head meetings this season, and we look for them to make it a hat trick at what we feel is a generous spread.
Pick: Louisiana Tech +6.5
Re: Tuesday Service Plays
Western Kentucky -8.5
This isn’t the Finals match-up that most expected once this tournament started last week. However, were now in the midst of the “Madness of March” so it makes perfect sense that the Blue Raiders upended the host of this tourney last night (South Alabama). Watching the Jaguars go down in flames certainly had the Hilltoppers grinning from ear-to-ear, and they should administer the deathblow tonight against a Blue Raiders squad that’s playing over their heads simply due to the extra adrenaline racing through their bodies.
MTSU’s road to the Sun Belt Championship started last week when they upended Louisiana Monroe at home 74-69, but failed to cover the 10-point spread. The combined 143 points soared Over the closing ‘total’ of 132.5. Their next game saw them upend the Troy State Trojans 65-59 in Mobile, AL as 6-point neutral court favorites. They pushed ATS, but the combined score fell comfortable Under the ‘total’. Last night’s game against host South Alabama saw them beat the Jaguars outright, 82-73, as 11.5-point underdogs and the combined points soar Over the closing ‘total’ of 131. So, through three games of the SB tournament, MTSU is 2-1 ATS and the Over has cashed in 2 of their 3 games.
Western Kentucky earned the #3 seed for the tournament, so they didn’t have to compete in the First Round. It’s Quarterfinal match-up against North Texas saw them win by an 84-70 final count and knock the Mean Green off for the second time this season. The 14 point win easily took care of their backers that laid 7.5-points and the 154 combined points eclipsed the closing ‘total’ of 144.5. Next up was Arkansas Little-Rock whom they pounded at home by a 71-47 final count at the end of January. The story was quite the same this time around as well as they rolled them by 15-points (70-55), and covered the 10-point spread in the process.
Western Kentucky took each of the match-ups this year (71-66 @ MTSU & 62-51 @ home), but MTSU covered both times (+6.5) & (+15.5). You know what they say about beating a team three straight times in the same season. That said, the underdog is 7-3 ATS the L/10 times these SBC rivals have squared off, but MTSU is 2-5-1 ATS their L/8 neutral site games as an underdog.
Do the Blue Raiders have enough in them to compete after pulling off a shocking win over the #1 seeded Jaguars last night, or will Western Kentucky hold suit and make a bubble team happy? Tune in to ESPN2 at 9:00 ET and find out!!!
Re: Tuesday Service Plays
1. 300,000* Cleveland State
2. 50,000* Trail Blazers
1. Cleveland State- First things first, the Vikings covered both meetings against this Butler squad this season, including a 51-46 Butler win, but Cleveland State cover, as a 12-point road dog in their last one at Hinkle Fieldhouse February 16th! Odds makers have once again underestimated this Vikings team tonight, and I'll prove it you...
Besides the fact the Vikings already proved they can play at Hinkle Fieldhouse, there's the motivational factor. Sure, the Bulldogs want to win the Horizon Title, but Butler is already guaranteed an at-large bid, while the Vikings only means of going Dancing would be with a win here tonight. Needless to say, that's a huge disparity in motivation, one that will surely keep this game within the number.
Another reason why this series has been so competitive this season is Cleveland State's excellent perimeter defense. We all know the Bulldogs love the 3-point line, with players like Campbell, Green, and Graves launching it from beyond the arc all game long. But if we know this, the Vikings and coach Waters know it too, and they've tailored their defense to stopping Butler's perimeter based attack. Thus, the two Cleveland State covers against Butler this season, as the Bulldogs shot 26% and 28% respectively from the 3-point line in those contests!
Finally, the match ups also dictate a close game, as the Vikings top-2 Bullock and Jackson have excelled against this Bulldogs defense. The last time they played at Butler, Cedric Jackson dropped in 20 points, 5 assists, 4 steals, and 4 boards, throughly outplaying Butler leading scorer Mike Green. Long story short, these two teams are well-matched, and the only reason the Bulldogs have the edge here is the home court.
Bottom line, expect a hard-fought, competitive contest tonight at Hinkle Fieldhouse, as these two teams are a lot closer than Vegas is giving them credit for. Cleveland State has already proven TWICE this season they can hang with Butler, and they'll prove it again tonight, using their stifling defense to keep this game well within the number.
Take Cleveland State plus the points over Butler as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Trail Blazers- I picked against the Trail Blazers in this spot last night, delivering a 50K bonus winner on the Cavaliers 88-80. However, tonight's a different story, as despite the fact Portland will be playing in the tail end of a back-to-back, I firmly believe they'll bounce back tonight in Minnesota and here's why:
First, forget the fatigue factor, as this young Blazers squad has shown little ill-effects from getting no rest, going 9-6 ATS this season with no down-time. Roy, Aldridge, and Webster still can't rent a car, so don't tell me these youngsters can play two games in two nights! The last time they played in back-to-back, they won outright at the Clippers 82-80 as 2-point dogs!
Second, the one problem that has plagued the 'Wolves all season is defense, and it'll hurt them once again tonight, as they're allowing 104 ppg on a ridiculous 49% shooting over their last 5 games... I don't care who you are, you're aren't going to win many basketball games when your opponent is shooting nearly 50% from the floor, period. Portland's offense isn't great, but they sure as hell can beat a lazy Minnesota defense in this one.
Finally, let's examine their previous two meetings this season, as the Blazers rocked the 'Wolves both times by double-digits, including a 90-79 win at the Target Center back on January 2nd. While I agree the Blazers aren't playing as well as they were in January, there's no way you can tell me they're now nearly a pick'em against this sputtering 'Wolves squad. True, the 'Wolves have won two in a row, but please, let's not get carried away... This is still a Minnesota team that's 10-22 SU & 14-18 ATS at home this season. It will be closer than their previous meetings, but the Blazers coming off a disappointing loss to the Cavs, bounce back with a strong road win and cover tonight in Minnesota.
Take the Trail Blazers over the Timberwolves in this NBA match up.
Re: Tuesday Service Plays
WILL SYKES 1st 6* GOM
MEMPHIS vs PHOENIX
SYKE-O-ANALYSIS: Here's the biggest trend you'll see that no other handicapper will ever have; The Phoenix Suns are 0-12-2 ATS after playing San Antonio (not including the playoffs from previous years) I'm so confident about this trend that I'd follow this blind without capping it. But since I knew it was coming up I decided to do a little homework on this game. And found that the Suns are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. Also the Suns are doing poor against low teams, going 25-53-3 ATS in their last 81 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Suns haven't impressed me much either, even after winning against San Antonio their last game out, by sneaking through looking like they won on a powerful game by winning by 7, after they were down 5 in the last 2 minutes of the game. In my eyes they pulled out a near miracle game. We know that Memphis isn't a great team, but they just finished a game against Boston without even having a lead the whole game. With 15.5 points to work with knowing that the Grizzlies can score 113 points against the Suns will be no problem for me backing the Grizzlies, while the Suns still figure out how to win with Shaq. The Grizz shoot 45%, while the Suns defense allows 45% so no biggie in trying to score their average 99 points. The Suns shoot 49% while the Grizzlies' defense allows 48% making the Suns' average just short of 109ppgs. As you can see here he have alot to work with. Now with Mike Miller back on the line up, be sure this game will be closer than expected. As soon as he got back in the line up they win SU against the Nets, but of course lose to the Celtics, now we get a nice double digit line against the Lost SUNS, which we catch the lines makers sleeping on this line tonight. So don't be psyched by this off line the odds makers are setting, Join Sykes in the winners circle with my first ever GOM. Just stick with Sykes, and once again.....Sykes becomes Victorious.
6* GOM Memphis Grizzlies +15.5
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