Monday Service Plays

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GAMBLERS WORLD

Game: William & Mary Tribe vs. George Mason Patriots

Prediction: George Mason Patriots

Current Line: -8.5 Over/Under: 115.5 Reason: The William & Mary Tribe and the George Mason Patriots will both be gunning for a victory on Monday when they meet at Richmond Coliseum. Oddsmakers currently have the Patriots listed as 8½-point favorites versus the Tribe, while the game's total is sitting at 115½. Team records: William & Mary: 17-15 SU, 14-11-1 ATS George Mason: 22-10 SU, 12-15-2 ATS William & Mary most recently: When playing on Monday are 3-7 After playing Virginia Commonwealth are 5-5 After a win are 7-3 George Mason most recently: When playing on Monday are 8-2 After playing UNC Wilmington are 8-2 After a win are 5-5 A few trends to consider: The total has gone UNDER in 4 of William & Mary's last 5 games William & Mary is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing George Mason William & Mary is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing George Mason George Mason is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing William & Mary The total has gone UNDER in 5 of George Mason's last 6 games George Mason is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games George Mason is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing William & Mary

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Michael Cannon

15 Dime –

CELTICS

Take the Celtics as the road chalk tonight over the 76ers.

Philadelphia has been blown out in the two previous meetings by a combined 37 points.

This is also their third game in four days, and second in two days. Philadelphia doesn’t have the horses to hang with the Celtics, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Boston jump out to a commanding lead and coast in this one.

Kevin Garnett is recovered from his abdominal strain and Ray Allen continues to deliver from the perimeter.

Take Boston as they grab the win and cover over Philly tonight.

5 Dime –

WILLIAM & MARY

Take the points with William & Mary tonight in the Colonial Athletic Conference championship.

The Tribe may have struggled a bit offensively in winning its last two games, but their defense has been superb, allowing just 57 ppg.

If they can keep that up tonight it will allow them to stay close until they start hitting some of their own shots.

This was a team picked to finish 11th or 12th in the conference, and now they are playing for an automatic bid to the NCAA’s. It’s hard to think that motivation won’t carry them tonight, so the points are the play here.

George Mason senior center Will Thomas is a defensive liability which will only help William & Mary’s chances to stay close tonight. Thomas has also been slumping a bit offensively, averaging 11.3 points and 8.3 rebounds in his final three games. Those numbers are down from 16.0 ppg and 10.4 rebounds per game during the regular season.

Take the points as William & Mary keeps it within the number.

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Joel Tyson

Portland at CLEVELAND -6

The Cleveland Cavaliers welcome in the Portland Trail Blazers tonight as the Cavs hope to put an end to the Cavaliers 2 games win streak they have on their current road trip.

Cleveland has won four of five and have been successful as of late ATS when meeting Portland. The Cavs in the last eight meetings have beaten the number six times, and see themselves sitting in the role of favorite tonight. This is important, as the favorite is 9-3 ATS over the last 12 meetings.

Cleveland defeated the Trail Blazers at Portland earlier in the year, something that has been somewhat tough to do, as the Blazers are tough at home.

I feel the Cavaliers will notch another win here tonight over this Blazer team and pick up the cover in doing so.

3* CLEVELAND


Chris Jordan

Portland at CLEVELAND -6

Cleveland catches a Portland team that will play its third road game in four nights; and though the Blazers won and covered their first two on this road trip, they were against Milwaukee (where they eked out a 103-101 win on Friday) and the Knicks, who took Portland to overtime on Saturday.

Tonight its hands are full with the raging Cavaliers, who whooped up on Indiana two nights ago, winning for the 20th time in 30 home games. The home team is 4-1 SU and ATS in this intra-conference clash, and the lone setback was the lone meeting this year, at Portland, where Cleveland squeaked out a one-point win, 84-83, on Jan. 30. We’re laying a value price in this one, and we’ll cover with a double-digit win

2* CAVALIERS


Sports GamblingHotline

Boston at PHILADELPHIA +6S

Sunday winner on Kentucky makes it 3 straight comp play winners, and a long term free play run of 114-94-4!

Take the 76ers plus the points tonight as they play host to the Boston Celtics.

Both teams have been lining their backers pockets of late, as Boston comes in having won 8 in a row, while covering 3 straight, and 5 of those 8. Philly has won and covered their last 4, and are on a 12-3 straight up run their last 15.

Overall, the Sixers are on a 10-1 spread run at home, and a 14-3-1 spread run their last 18 games.

The Celtics have already handled the Sixers twice this season by double digits, but Philly wasn't playing nearly as well as they are right now, and it should be noted that the underdog in the series is 6-2-1 the last 9 times these teams have played.

We are going to grab the points, and look for Philly to keep this one respectable.

Play on the 76ers.

1* PHILADELPHIA


Karl Garrett

Denver at SAN ANTONIO -7)

G-Man gave you a Sunday free winner on Ohio State over Michigan State. Now 57-45-2 with my comp plays.

Gonna go with San Antonio minus the points back at home over Denver, as the Spurs are fresh off their Sunday collapse at Phoenix and will be looking to avenge their 109-96 Friday night loss at Denver.

That win by the Nuggets makes it two straight in the series - both wins coming at the Pepsi Center. Unfortunately for the Nuggets, they have not been able to break through in San Antonio recently, as the Spurs (playoffs included) have won 3 straight, and 4 of the last 6 both straight up, and against the spread.

The favorite has won and covered all 3 in this year's series, and is on a 23-8 spread run the last 31 times these teams have played each other.

The Nuggets have dropped their last pair of games both straight up, and against the spread on the road their last 2 times out. With the Spurs looking for revenge, and faced with a rare 2-game losing streak, the G-Man is going to lay the home lumber with San Antonio tonight.

2* SAN ANTONIO


Bobby Maxwel

Denver at SAN ANTONIO -6'

Hit our FREE play Sunday on the college hardwood when Virginia blew out Maryland. Today we're on the pro court for a complimentary selection on the Spurs as they host Denver.

San Antonio has lost two straight after an 11-game winning streak, but a good remedy to get back on the winning path is having the Nuggets come to town.

The Spurs are 15-3 SU (9-8-1 ATS) and they've gone 26-5 SU in front of the home fans. And while they might have lost Friday against the Nuggets and Sunday in Phoenix, the Spurs will get the job done in this one.

Denver is terrible on the road. The Nuggets have lost four of their last five on the highway SU and ATS and got steamrolled in Utah Saturday 132-105 as six-point underdogs. This team is competitive at home but just lousy when it takes to the highway.

The favorite is 23-7-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings between these two and in the lone meeting between these two in San Antonio this season the Spurs got a 102-91 win as six-point favorites. It should come easy for the Spurs in this one as the Nuggets don't put up much resistance on the highway.

3* SAN ANTONIO

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Re: Monday Service Plays

John Ryan

ORLANDO MAGIC -10

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Orlando Magic - AiS shows a 72% probability that Orlando will win this game by 10 or more points. AiS shows an 85% probability that Orlando will score 105+ points inn this game. Note that Atlanta is just 1-10 ATS in road games when they allow 105 or more points in a game this season. Atlanta is a losing team, but they do shoot above average from the foul line and get to the foul line an above average amount too. Atlanta ranks 6th in the NBA with 27.5 foul attempts per game and also ranks 7th in foul shot shooting percentage at 77.5%. note that Orlando is 20-11 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season; 18-8 ATS versus good free throw shooting teams that are making >=76% of their attempts this season; 14-6 ATS versus good foul drawing teams that are attempting >=27 free throws/game this season. Take the Magic.

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Ross Benjamin

SAN ANTONIO -8

Any home favorite playing with no rest, is off an away favorite SU loss in which they failed to cover by 12.0 or less, has won 45 games or more out of their last 82 at home, lost to their current opponent in their last meeting this season, and their current opponent is off an away underdog ATS loss in which they allowed 100 points or more is 8-0 SU and ATS since 1990. The favorite has won those 8 games by an average of 15.5 points per game. Play on San Antonio minus the points as my free selection of the night.

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Rocketman Sports

Denver @ San Antonio
Play On: 1* San Antonio -7

Denver is 1-5 ATS this year on the road when the total is between 200 and 204 1/2. San Antonio is 38-20 ATS last 3 years against Northwest Division opponents. Denver is allowing 105.1 points per game overall this year and a whopping 109.3 points per game on the road this season. San Antonio is allowing only 88.3 points per game at home this year. Nuggets are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Nuggets are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southwest. Nuggets are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Nuggets are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Monday games. Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Spurs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Spurs are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 vs. NBA Northwest. Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Favorite is 23-8 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Nuggets are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in San Antonio. Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on San Antonio tonight!

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BEN BURNS

NBA BASKETBALL

76ERS
Game: Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game 
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers Reason: I'm taking the points with PHILADELPHIA. After they're terrific start to the season, its always relatively easy to make a case for betting on Boston. However, while the Celts have covered a few recently, they haven't been a profitable team over the past few weeks. In fact, during that stretch, they're just 5-6 at the betting window. Conversely, the 76ers are on a highly profitable 14-4 ATS run, including a 4-0 SU/ATS mark their past four games. Yes, they are coming off a game yesterday. However, that was an afternoon game at Milwaukee, so they had plenty of time to get home and today still marks just their fifth game through the first 10 days of March, so it's not like they are playing their fourth game in five days or anything like that. Additionally, the 76ers seem to love playing the second of back to back games. Indeed, while many teams struggle in that situation, the 76'ers have thrived, going a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS the last seven times they played their second game in two days. That includes outright victories over the likes of Houston, Toronto and Phoenix. Looking back further and we find the 76ers at a highly impressive 12-1 ATS the last 13 times that they played the second of back to back games. Looking back still further shows them at 37-19-2 ATS in that situation the past three seasons. Clearly, when playing the second of back to back games, "fatigue" hasn't been an issue for this "blue-collar" team. Tonight's game means a lot to Philadelphia. Not only are the 76'ers battling for their playoff lives, but they're also playing with "double-revenge" from a pair of earlier losses. The 76'ers held the lead at halftime in both those games and they're playing better now than they have all season. They've won eight straight at the Wachovia Center, winning by an average of nearly 20 points per game. Look for them to put together a "complete game," improving to 4-0 ATS the last four times they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. *Best Bet

UNDER spurs/nuggets
Game: Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Nuggets and Spurs to finish UNDER the total. The Nuggets come off three consecutive games which finished above the number. While that has helped to keep tonight's total generously high, its worth noting that the Nuggets had seen the UNDER go 2-1-1 their previous four games AND that they've also seen the UNDER go 4-1 on the season after having played three consecutive games which finished over the number. Yes, these teams did combine for 205 points at Denver a few nights ago. However, the previous meeting (also at Denver) produced just 157 combined points, staying below the number by more than 40. Looking at the games here at San Antonio and we find that the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times that the Nuggets traveled here. All seven of those games produced less than 195 combined points and they averaged a mere 179.9. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a highly profitable 11-1 the last 12 series meetings here with ALL 12 of those games producing 193 combined points or less. San Antonio played a very low-scoring game (94-87 loss) against the normally high-scoring Suns yesterday. That game finished below the number by more than 20 points. That brought the UNDER to 4-2 their last six games, none of those producing more than 205 combined points. The defending champs have now seen the UNDER go 21-8-1 (72%) the last 30 times they faced a team with a winning record. The Spurs were also playing the second of back to back games for Friday's meeting at Denver. While that game did creep above the number, the UNDER remains a profitable 5-1 the last six times that they played the second of back to back games. Prior to the Denver meeting, the previous five (back to back) games had combined scores of 176, 181, 162, 173 and 179. Look for tonight's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again with the UNDER improving to 14-7 the last 21 times the Spurs were favored by eight points or less. *nba total of the week

HOCKEY

UNDER Kings/Canucks
Game: Vancouver Canucks vs. Los Angeles Kings
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Kings and Canucks to finish UNDER the total. These teams have played a trio of relatively high-scoring games against each other this season. I'm expecting a significantly lower-scoring game this evening though. For starters, the Canucks haven't allowed more than two goals in any of their last three games. Looking back further and we find that they've allowed three goals or less in nine of their last 10 games, allowing four in the 'other' game. Seven of their last nine games have finished with five combined goals or less. Meanwhile, the Kings haven't scored more than two goals in any of their last five games, seeing three of their last four stay below the number. The Canucks won their last game by a score of 4-2. That's worth noting as we find the UNDER at 32-16-8 the past three seasons when they were coming off a win by two goals or more, including a 7-3-5 mark this season. Additionally, they've seen the UNDER go a profitable 22-9 (71%) the past three seasons when playing a road game with an over/under line of 5.5. Look for tonight's final score to be lower-scoring than expected once again.

PASSING COLLEGE BASKETBALL TODAY

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Purelock

DENVER @ SAN ANTONIO
PLAY ON: SAN ANTONIO (-) PTS

Paid Plays
PORTLAND @ CLEVELAND
PLAY ON: PORTLAND (+) PTS

LA CLIPPERS @ MIAMI
PLAY ON: LA CLIPPERS (+) PTS

NEW YORK @ DALLAS
PLAY ON: DALLAS (-) PTS

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The Miller Group

Los Angeles Clippers @ Miami Heat
PICK: Los Angeles Clippers

REASON FOR PICK: With Dwyane Wade now shut down for the remainder of the season, wins are going to be few and far between the rest of the way. As if they weren't already.

We'll grab the Clippers in this spot as they hit the road following an embarrassing home loss against the T'Wolves on Saturday. Look for them to be highly motivated to grab a win on Monday night.

It's important to note that the Clippers haven't been all that bad on the road of late, going 3-4 SU in their last seven opportunities. Three of those four losses came against the likes of the Celtics, Nuggets, and Lakers, and the other came at the hands of a red hot 76ers squad. The cupboard isn't bare by any means, and we believe they have enough to get it done against a severely undermanned Heat squad.

We don't need to tell you how bad the Heat have been this season, and now they receive the news that D-Wade is done for the year. This is just a tough spot for them to get motivated. Even head coach Pat Riley has been in and out, missing games for scouting purposes. We're not convinced that Shawn Marion and Ricky Davis can carry the entire load on this night.

The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings in this series with the Heat winning in L.A. earlier this season. Look for the Clippers to return the favor in a big way tonight. Take Los Angeles
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WILL SYKES

ATLANTA vs ORLANDO

SYKE-O-ANALYSIS: Orlando just finished playing the Warriors a couple of days back, where their O/U line was set at 230 and really had not shot at going over after the first quarter. But what I saw in that game was that the Magic are capable of scoring and shooting at a high percentage. In that first quarter of that Golden State/Orlando game, the Magic just would not miss, and were shooting above 60% and what's odd was that it looked natural for them and that they do shoot like that often. The last time Atlanta and Orlando squared off they went way under the 194 total, and now the total is set at 208? How odd is that? This looks like a big Skye out by the lines makers. But no way I'm falling for this psych out. As I have strong support where the OVER is 8-0 in Hawks last 8 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Also supported by a never lost 13-0 OVER that I refuse to release. Take this play and rate it an nice 3* and don't get psyched by those odds makers into taking the easy under bait, Just stick with Sykes and you won't be psyched.

ATLANTA/ORLANDO OVER 208

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Wolkosky Milan

10* CLEVELAND -5½
10* SAN ANTONIO -7
10* DALLAS -13
10* ATL/ORL UNDER 208
10* DEN/SAS UNDER 203

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Drew Gordon

1. 300,000* 76ers
2. 50,000* William & Mary
3. 50,000* Western Kentucky

1. 76ers- While the public jumps all over what appears to be a favorable line for the Celtics, sharp bettors know not to underestimate a 76ers squad that's been money at home, going 9-1 SU & 10-0 ATS over their last 10 at the Wachovia Center!

Sorry-Celtics backers, but the fact of the matter remains, Philly has been excellent at home, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the 76ers won outright here, but let me explain further...

76ers are perfect example of a team who's found their rhythm... Take for example their last home game, a 117-83 rout of the Bucks, where 7 Philly players scored in double figures! Andre Iguodala scored 18 points, but it was Samuel Dalembert who lead the team with 22 points and 13 boards! In other words, its a complete team effort and the results are apparent: 9-1 SU & 10-0 ATS over their last 10 home games speaks for itself!

I know a lot of critics are pointing to the last meeting between these two teams, a 116-89 Celtics blowout win at the Garden. But if you actually saw the game, you know that contest was closer than the final score. Philly trailed by only 5 points after 3 quarters (after leading at halftime), when Boston dropped 38 points in the 4th quarter, thanks in large part to an incredible barrage of 3-pointers. This time around the 76ers are not only at home, playing much better basketball, but also facing a Celtics team which hasn't been nearly as good ATS of late.

Finally, its hard to ignore the 76ers red-hot play of late, averaging a scorching 111 ppg on 53% shooting (43% from 3-point) over their last 5 games! They've been torching defenses left and right, and while the Celtics D is formidable, they're not nearly as good on the road. Philly is one of the hottest teams in the East, playing in a place they've covered 10 straight times... Play here is squarely on the 76ers.
Take the 76ers plus the points over the Celtics as your top-rated play of the day.

2. William & Mary- As much as I loved George Mason last season, they're in for trouble in tonight's CAA Title Game and here's why:

First and foremost, this is not the same Patriots team as last year. They aren't sneaking up on anyone, and defensively, I'm really not impressed by their growth from season to season. George Mason is allowing 70 ppg on 46% shooting on the highway this season... Not nearly good enough to cover against a suddenly surging Tribe squad.

Have to admit a bit surprised by William & Mary, especially with their impressive outright win over VCU 56-54 Sunday as a 12-point dog! In hindsight, its another example of a team peaking a precisely the right time, combining their perimeter based attack with a very fundamental and focused defense. In the CAA Tourney the Tribe are holding their opponents to 57 ppg on just 40% shooting!

So how does William & Mary keep this one within the number? Defense, plain and simple. The Patriots offense has been less than impressive on neutral courts, scoring about 68 ppg on 45% shooting, which is decent, but not good enough to make up for their deficiencies on the defensive end. In fact, the Tribe's offense has actually improved in the CAA tourney (peaking at the right time), averaging 63 ppg on an impressive 48% shooting!

Bottom line, these two teams are a lot closer than the guys in Vegas want you to believe. True, George Mason may have the best two players on the court in Campbell and Thomas, but the better overall team is William & Mary right now, and it'll show in the final score. In the end, Patriots may win, but they have to fight for every last basket to do it.

Take William & Mary plus the points over George Mason in tonight's CAA Title Game.

3. Western Kentucky- While both these teams are playing well, there's no question the nod here goes to the Hilltoppers, who's superior offense and perimeter defense are more than enough to cover the number in this one.

It doesn't take a brain surgeon to see the Trojans will have trouble keeping pace in this contest, averaging 57 ppg on 37% shooting away this season. Granted, they were better in the Quarterfinals against Florida Atlantic, but there's a HUGE difference between FAU and Western Kentucky, namely 10 wins and better players at almost every position. Recall their only meeting this season, a 71-47 shellacking of the Trojans by this Hilltoppers squad, and you can easily see the disparity.

A lot people question the Western Kentucky defense, but when it comes to the perimeter, they're excellent, allowing 41% shooting, including 32% from beyond the arc! While its true they may run into trouble against bigger teams, in this case, their right at home against a perimeter-based, smallish team like Arkansas-Little Rock. Trojans already have issues scoring points, but against this defense, their problems only get pushed to the forefront (like in their last meeting).

We all know the Hilltoppers frontline is just for show, but their backcourt of Courtney Lee and Tyrone Brazelton is a good as it gets in the Sun Belt. They have a huge edge over a Trojans squad that has no real "go-to" guy. In other words, Arkansas-Little Rock's balance may just be their downfall here tonight. Smith and Moore are decent players, but on a neutral court, against a far superior team, they're in over their heads in this one. Hilltoppers roll!

Take Western Kentucky BIG over Arkansas-Little Rock in this Sun Belt Tourney Semifinals match up.

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Rob Veno

Blue Chip: Gonzaga -6.5

George Mason Over 115 -110

South Alabama -11

Dallas Over 201 -110

Blue Chip: San Antonio -7

New Jersey +12.5

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ER Sports

NBA Playmaker: Philadelphia Under 196

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Tony Karpinsky / Ice man

MONDAY TOP PLAYS: SIENA and SD

Take Siena -2 ½ over Rider (7:00 pm ESPN 2) The MAAC Championship is on the line tonight with the two best teams in the conference fighting it out for the one bid into the big dance. Both teams split this season with each squad winning in hostile territory, but the big three of Ubiles, Franklin, and Hasbrouck will propel the Saints to a victory, especially since the game is being played in Albany. Rider has struggled to put away too bad teams and this time their luck will run out and we pick up 4 big units in the process.

PIck on SD A rare occurrence could happen on Monday, as the Toreros try and send 3 teams to the tournament from the WCC from the first time in their existence. San Diego is no slouch and finished the conference season 11-3 with no bad losses and did defeat St. Mary?s twice. They also played Gonzaga tough losing by a combined 14 points in their two games and will take this one to the wire as well. SD is a very solid and fundamental team who does not turn the ball over. This would be big money for the conference if they can get 3 teams in the tournament and that will give the Toreros the extra little edge, especially when playing on their home court.

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Spritzer
tko.......................gonzaga
3 star.....................ark-lr
total.....................cavs under 91.5
ko........................magic
5 star shocker gow..................sixers
also releasing la kings over 5.5

Cokin
fat man plays.............cavs under,rangers-110
window.....................s. bama
3 star.......................rider
total...................heat over 91
under the hat..................magic
3 star.....................spurs

Feist

personal best.................ark lr
platinum.........................san diego
inner circle.................mid tenn st
5 star....................wm and mary
4 star...................elon
3 star.....................rider
total...................spurs under 03
platinum..................spurs
inner circle...................magic
5 star gow.....................rockets

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