Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Utah Jazz -5.5

After a big win over San Antonio last night, I look for a letdown from the Nuggets as they head out on the road physically and emotionally drained against one of the best home teams in the NBA.  The Nuggets are just 12-17 on the road this season and 13-16 ATS in those games while the Jazz are 27-3 at home and 20-10 ATS in those games.  The Jazz won at Phoenix last night which will give them a big lift because they have not been at their best on the road this season.  Denver is 2-12 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.   Utah is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season and 10-2 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.  Take the Jazz.

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ATS Consultants

Newsletter Plays

Syracuse over Marquette 85-74 Best Bet

New Orleans over Houston Rockets 98-90 Preferred Play
NC State over Wake Forest 80-74 Preferred Play

Washington over the Boston Bruins Preferred Play
Over in the Florida/Atlanta game Best Bet
Under in the St. Louis/Vancouver game Preferred Play

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ROB VENO


Wake Forest -6 

Memphis Over 145 -110

Arkansas -12.5 

Arizona State -10.5

20* Blue Chip: Tulsa Over 140 -110

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Marc Lawrence

Final HG triple dime status (15-0-2 lifetime)

UTEP


Malinsky 6* top of the ticket

CAL

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Drew Gordon Tonight's Games

1. 300,000* Duke

2. 50,000* Massachusetts

3. 50,000 Magic


Early Games

1. 50,000* Wake Forest

2. 50,000* Cavaliers

1. Wake Forest- First things first, haven't we learned not to pick against the Deacons at the Lawrence Joel, where they're 14-2 SU and 7-3-1 ATS this season! Despite their 4-game losing streak, there's no question Wake plays their best ball at home, where they're superior to the Wolfpack on both ends of the court! But that's hardly the only reason the Deacons win tonight...

Don't think Wake has forgotten their last meeting, where the Wolfpack got a last second putback to beat the Deacons 67-65 in Raleigh back on February 3rd. This time around, the Wolfpack are in big trouble, because you know damn well the Deacons will shoot better than 39% at the Lawrence Joel, where they average 76 ppg on 45% shooting this season!

Also, one has to question the energy level of this N.C. State team, as it was clear to me that they layed it all on the line against Duke in their last one, losing a back-breaker 87-86 March 1st. Granted, they've had a lot of time to think about it since then, but regardless, a loss like that, late in the season, can crush a team's confidence.

Finally, the match ups also favor the Deacons, as freshman James Johnson will benefit greatly from the return home. In his last two games (both on the road) he's combined for just 7 points and 11 boards. However, in his last two at the Lawrence Joel, he's averaging 24.5 ppg and 15 boards/game! Not only that, but guards Teague and Smith dominated their match ups in Raleigh, and you have to believe it will only get better today in Winston-Salem.

Bottom line, the Deacons get their revenge in the one place you simply cannot underestimate them, at the Lawrence Joel Coliseum. Besides revenge and home court, the match ups strongly favor the Deacons, as the Wolfpack have been nothing but garbage on the road , going 3-10 ATS away this season! More of the same tonight, as Wake rolls!

Take Wake Forest comfortably over N.C. State in afternoon ACC action.

2. Cavaliers- Bad match up all around for the sputtering Pacers, who've lost 6 in a row SUATS to King James and his merry men. Don't see much room to reverse that trend tonight, as the new-look Cavs maybe missing Ilgauskus and Gibson, but have more than enough firepower to win and cover against an Indiana team without two of its best players - O'Neal and Tinsely.

Biggest issue for the Pacers is their insistence on playing the "run-and-gun" style, but without giving ANY effort on the defensive end, scoring 110 ppg, but allowing a laughable 111 ppg over their last 5 games! First of all, the Pacers aren't built to run, and there two recent road losses prove it - both against solid defenses (Spurs and Rockets). The Pacers couldn't break 100 in either of those games, and still managed to lose by double-digits. Cavs defense is rock-solid at home, and only got better with the addition of Wallace.

The fact the Pacers don't have O'Neal is key in this match up, because at least he provides some interior defense against Lebron's penetration. But without their bigman back there, James is free to penetrate and dunk or dish all night long. They can try putting the athletic Granger on Lebron, but do you really want your best player guarding the best player on the planet? Besides the danger of foul trouble, chasing Lebron around for 48 minutes will not help Granger's offense.

Bottom line, the Cavs lost a tough one in Chicago, thanks in part to the absence of Ilgauskas and Gibson, but tonight, they're back at home, and facing a team they absolutely love to beat. Injuries on the Pacers side only strengthen my point, as a fully healthy Indiana team would still have trouble in this spot, but without O'Neal and Tinsley... They don't stand a chance.

Take the Cavaliers BIG over the Pacers in afternoon NBA action

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Paul Stone
CBB 3* Action Georgetown vs Louisville UNDER 123.5 (-110)
CBB 4* Action Texas Tech (-1.0 / -110) vs Baylor
CBB 3* Action Stanford (-110) vs USC
CBB 3* Action UNLV (-6.5 / -110) vs Utah
CBB 3* Action Tulsa (-4.5 / -110) vs Central Florida

Pacific Star
NBA 3* Action Cleveland Cavaliers (-7.5 / -110) vs Indiana Pacers
NBA 3* Action Orlando Magic (-7.5 / -110) vs Golden State Warriors
NBA 3* Action Memphis Grizzlies (11.0 / -110) vs Boston Celtics
CBB 3* Action Wake Forest (-6.0 / -110) vs North Carolina State
CBB 4* Action Miami Florida (2.0 / -110) vs Florida State
CBB 4* Action Louisville (4.0 / -110) vs Georgetown
CBB 3* Action Texas Tech (-1.5 / -110) vs Baylor
CBB 3* Action Air Force (-110) vs San Diego State
CBB 3* Action Texas A&M (5.5 / -110) vs Kansas
CBB 3* Action UNLV (-1.0 / -110) vs Utah
CBB 3* Action Duquesne (-7.0 / -110) vs St Louis
CBB 4* Action Temple (-2.5 / -110) vs La Salle
CBB 4* Action Southern Mississippi vs Marshall UNDER 140.0 (-110)
CBB 3* Action NC Charlotte (7.0 / -110) vs Rhode Island
CBB 4* Action Villanova (1.5 / -110) vs Providence

Mike Rose
NBA 2* Action Golden State Warriors vs Orlando Magic UNDER 230.0 (-110)
NBA 3* Action Utah Jazz (-5.5 / -110) vs Denver Nuggets
CBB 2* Action Georgetown (-3.0 / -110) vs Louisville
CBB 3* Action Loyola (Md.) (-2.0 / -110) vs Fairfield
CBB 3* Action Marquette vs Syracuse OVER 149.0 (-110)
CBB 2* Action North Carolina vs Duke UNDER 168.0 (-110)
CBB 2* Action Arizona (2.0 / -110) vs Oregon

Jim Kruger
CBB 3* Action Louisville vs Georgetown UNDER 124.0 (-110)
CBB 3* Action Texas Tech (-1.0 / -110) vs Baylor
CBB 3* Action UNLV (-7.0 / -110) vs Utah
CBB 3* Action NC Wilmington (-2.5 / -110) vs Delaware
CBB 3* Action Weber State (-6.0 / -110) vs Montana State

JB Sports
NBA 1* Action Indiana Pacers (8.0 / -110) vs Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA 1* Action Golden State Warriors (7.5 / -110) vs Orlando Magic
NBA 1* Action Charlotte Bobcats (6.5 / -110) vs Washington Wizards
NBA 1* Action New York Knicks (3.0 / -110) vs Portland Trail Blazers
NBA 1* Action Memphis Grizzlies (11.0 / -110) vs Boston Celtics
NBA 1* Action Dallas Mavericks (-12.0 / -110) vs New Jersey Nets
NBA 1* Action New Orleans Hornets (7.5 / -110) vs Houston Rockets
NBA 1* Action Denver Nuggets (6.0 / -110) vs Utah Jazz
NBA 1* Action Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5 / -110) vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Bob Akmens
NHL 3* Action Atlanta Thrashers vs Florida Panthers UNDER 5.5 (-105)
NHL 3* Action New Jersey Devils vs Toronto Maple Leafs UNDER 5.0 (+115)
NBA 3* Action Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 187.0 (-110)
CBB 3* Action Montana vs Idaho State OVER 126.0 (-110)
CBB 3* Action Utah State vs Idaho OVER 139.5 (-110)
CBB 3* Action Nevada vs Fresno State OVER 144.5 (-110)

Ben Burns
NHL 4* Best Washington Capitals vs Boston Bruins UNDER 5.5 (+100)

Alex Smart
CBB 3* Best Georgia (-1.0 / -110) vs Mississippi

AJ Apollo
CBB 5* Best Alabama (1.0 / -110) vs Vanderbilt
CBB 3* Action Northwestern (14.0 / -110) vs Wisconsin
CBB 3* Action Georgia (-1.5 / -110) vs Mississippi
CBB 3* Action Syracuse (-110) vs Marquette
CBB 3* Action South Florida (6.0 / -110) vs Notre Dame

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT

MIAMI HEAT vs ATLANTA HAWKS
Play: ATLANTA HAWKS -7

Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: ATLANTA HAWKS -7 (NBA) We are posting this with the opening line on Friday night at 10:30pm est. We want our clients on this early as it will most likely jump once everyone figures out Dwayne Wade isn't going to play. Miami only suited up 7 players against Golden State. Haslim took a good hit at the end of the game twisting his ankle. We don't know the severity of the injury but even if he's full strength, it's too hard getting by with 7 players. Considering you are using bench players for a majority of the time, foul trouble and fatigue will destroy you by the 4th. Atlanta plays a fast game much like what Miami just faced in Golden State but they don't give up as many points as the Warriors which just has blow out written all over this game. We are catching Miami short handed and on a back to back and on the road. Take Atlanta -7 and take them early before this line jumps.

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Big Al

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz over Denver, as the Nuggets are a poor traveler when they take on a division rival after playing at home in Denver the previous night. And when priced from -1 to +8 points, Denver is a dismal 1-14 ATS in this role since 1991. The Jazz are a dominant 424-349 ATS at home since 1991, and have won 17 straight home games (going 12-5 ATS) since falling to Boston on December 29. And within Utah's 424-349 home set, the Jazz are a solid 45-19 ATS when playing an unrested foe off back-to-back wins if the line is 10 points or less. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my College Hoops winners today, including two Tourney plays, as I was #1 in March Madness last year (as documented by The Sports Monitor) with an overall record of 32-10.

At 12 Noon, on CBS, our selection is on the Georgetown Hoyas minus the points over Louisville. Earlier this year, we played on the Cardinals at home vs. the Hoyas, and Louisville, though it trailed 31-23 at half-time, rewarded us with a comeback eight-point win and cover. Now, we'll fade Rick Pitino's crew, as Big East home favorites of -2 or more points, off back-to-back wins, are an awesome 24-5 ATS since 1991 vs. conference foes off a win. And if our home fave lost its earlier meeting by 10 or less points, then our 24-5 system zooms to an almost-perfect 18-1 ATS. Look for Georgetown to not falter down the stretch like it did in the season's first meeting. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my two tourney winners today, as I was #1 in March Madness last year with a 32-10 overall record.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Austin Peay Governors minus the points over Tennessee State. The Tigers are seeded 6th, but have advanced to the Finals on the heels of an upset win over Murray State last night. And that was the third straight upset win by Tennessee State, as the Tigers also won at Morehead State as a 2-point dog on Tuesday, and as a 5.5-point dog at Eastern Kentucky last Saturday. Overall, this will be the fifth straight game the Tigers have played away from home, and teams off three dog wins are poor bets when not playing at home, if they are NOT getting 15 points, and they won their last game by more than three points. These teams are a dismal 15-53 ATS since 1991. Tennessee State is a poor 22-33 ATS off a win since 2001, and hasn't played in the Ohio Valley Conference Championship game since 1998. Austin Peay, though, has a lot of experience, as it has reached the Title Game in four of the previous five seasons (though it has lost its last three trips). But I expect the Governors to get the job done this time, as they have always performed well when favored (57-39 ATS) as opposed to being an underdog (33-49), and when they're favored over a team off back-to-back wins, they a super 14-5 ATS since 1991. Take the Governors. OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my other big winners on this Saturday.

At 4:30 pm, on ESPN-U, our selection is on the Cleveland State Vikings minus the points over Valparaiso. The Horizon League stacks its tourney odds in favor of the top two seeds, as it gives them a bye into the semi-finals. So, Cleveland State has a huge advantage over Valpo this afternoon, since the Vikings haven't played in a week after defeating Youngstown 65-58 last Saturday, while Valparaiso had a tough game last night vs. Wright State. Not surprisingly, the Top 2 seeds have done very well in this Tourney format the last four seasons, going 6-2 ATS in the Semi-Final round (including 6-1 as a favorite). After stints at Kent State and Rutgers, coach Gary Waters has really turned Cleveland State's program around. Waters brought in 10 new players this season, and also had all five starters back from last year, so the Vikings are primed to snap their post-season seven-game losing streak today, and advance to the Horizon League Championship game for the first time. I have a super 31-5 ATS tourney system that fades certain teams off an upset win (Valpo upset Wright State as a 1-point dog for its sixth straight win), and it's also worth noting that underdogs off three or more wins are a poor 21-35 ATS in the semi-final round of conference tourneys. Cleveland State won both meetings vs. Valpo this year, and I look for a clean sweep this afternoon. Horizon League Tourney Game of the Year on Cleveland State.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Bob Balfe

NBA Basketball
Grizzlies +11 over Celtics

College Basketball
South Florida +6 over Notre Dame
Duke -1 over North Carolina


Savannah Sports

3 Units on Memphis Under 145


David Chan

UC-Santa Barbara -10

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Philly Connection

Syracuse -1


Cal Sports

4'* Drake
4*Fordham
4*UC San Barb
4*Tulane


Stan L.

5* Tx A&M
4*Gtown
4*Calif
4*NC Wilm
3*SYR
3*Ariz
3*N Iowa

David Chan

UC-Santa Barbara -10
UNLV -7½   


TomStryker

5*UNLV
3*Ark
3*NC Wilm


Keith Martin Sports

SMU OV 119
Long Beach st OV 126

Comp - Winthrop OV 121


The Fat Jack

LOUISVILLE+4 1/2
SMU +2
WISCONSIN -13 1/2
TULANE -9

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ATS LOCK
4 Arizona
4 Memphis
3 Middle Tennessee

ATS FINANCIAL
3 Arkansas St.
3 Connecticut
3 Miss St.

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WAYNE ROOT

Chairman - GTown
Millionaire - USC
Money Maker - So Florida
No Limit - Iowa St
Insiders Circle - Tex Tech
Billionaire - Alabama

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Larry Ness

My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on UNLV at 4:00 ET. UNLV won 30 games last year on its way to a Sweet 16 appearance. However, four starters are gone from that team. All that said, Lon Kruger's team is 22-7 heading into this final game of the regular season, including an 11-4 mark in the MWC. A win here secures a second-place finish and with the MWC tourney again being played in Las Vegas, the Rebels should get an at-large bid, even if they don't win the tourney. First things first though, they sure don't want to lose here. Especially after Tuesday's poor performance at New Mexico, where the Rebels made just 4-of-21 three-pointers in a 59-45 loss. At 16-12 overall and 7-8 in the MWC, Utah's going nowhere. The Utes do have the 7-1 Nevill (1.7-6.5), who is a tough matchup for the smaller Rebels, as he did get 26 points when the Utes beat UNLV up in Salt Lake City, 81-73 on Feb 6. Guard Bryant (14.3) is the Utes only other double digit scorer (he also had 26 in that first game with UNLV) and he's been coming off the bench all season. However, the Rebels "make do" in this venue. Guard Wink Adams (16.0-4.0-3.2) is the team's lone returning starter from LY and is typically joined in the starting lineup by two 6-5 players, Terry (10.1-4.9-3.2) and Bailey (6.7-3.8), the 6-6 Rougeau (8.7-5.6) who is the team's leading rebounder and the 6-7 Darger (11.8-4.8). UNLV is 15-2 SU at home, losing only to Louisville and Arizona (both games were played before Christmas). The Rebels are 7-0 at home in MWC play and have handled the league's other two top teams easily in "Sin City," beating BYU 70-41 and New Mexico 79-60. Utah had lost four straight games before beating CSU (which is 0-15 in the MWC) in its last game and that included losses at TCU (which has lost eight of 11) and 12-17 Wyoming. While Utah is 1-6 SU as a dog this year (3-4 ATS), UNLV is 17-1 SU when favored, going 12-6 ATS. The Rebels don't want to give the "Selection Committee" any late-season ammo to use against them (a loss here sure would), so I expect this one to be over early! Weekend Wipeout Winner on UNLV

20* CAA Tourney GOY (8-3 with 20* Conf GOY plays since Feb 1)
My 20* play is on UNC-Wilmington at 6:00 ET. The faithful of Wilmington were quite concerned when Benny Moss, in his first year as head coach, led the Seahawks to a 7-22 season, going 4-14 in the CAA last year. Wilmington had won 25 games the previous season and had been used to postseason play, including NCAA appearances in 2000, '02, '03 and '06. With four seniors leading the way, Moss got things turned around this year, as UNC-Wilmington enters this game 19-12, going 12-6 (tied for 2nd with Geo Mason) in the CAA. Delaware, which hadn't been to the "Big Dance" since Mike Brey led them to consecutive appearances in '98 and '99, was coming off a dreadful 5-26 season (3-15 in the CAA). The Blue Hens have also improved this year, although not as much as Wilmington, taking a 14-16 mark (9-9) into this game after last night's 60-51 win over 12-20 Drexel. There is a reason the Blue Hens' improvement hasn't been as big as Wilmington's. Simply put, Delaware is not as good! Beating Drexel is one thing, but the Blue Hens' season ends here! The 6-7 Courtney (13.9-6.2) gets some help up front from the 6-9 Ledsome (5.2-4.9) for Delaware but not enough for Delaware to match Wilmington's two big men. The 6-10 Kuljanin (12.8-9.9) and the 6-9 Hendley (12.9--4.9) who are both seniors, have no intention of seeing their season end here. Fellow seniors, guards Carter (16.2-5.7-4.3) and Fountain (12.9-3.6-2.1), are an excellent duo and although there is some question concerning Fountain's ankle, freshman Tomko (8.6-2.9-2.5) is an able replacement. Another freshman, the 6-7 Lacey (4.6-3.0) also adds depth inside. In the 6-6 Egerson 913.9-7.0), Dawson (11.0-4.6) and Johnson 99.4) Delaware has a solid perimeter game but Wilmington owns the experience edge. These team's met just once TY, with Delaware winning a close game at home, which only gives Wilmington more motivation here. CAA Tourney GOY 20* UNC-Wilmington

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Dr Bob

West Virginia (-9) 3-Stars at -9 or less, 2-Stars up to -10.
Wake Forest (-7) 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars up to -8.
Texas Tech (-1 1/2) 2-Stars at -2 or less, 3-Stars at -1 or better.
Texas A&M (+5) 2-Stars at +5 or more, 3-Stars at +6 or more.
California (+15) 2-Stars at +15, 3-Stars at +15 1/2 or more.


Opinion/Possible Best Bet
OLD DOMINION (-7 ?) over William & Mary
11:20 AM Pacific - Rotation 636
Old Dominion applies to a very strong 103-29-3 ATS conference tournament situation and the Monarchs are coming off a loss in their regular season finale, which should also serve as motivation. ODU is 15-2 ATS in their last 17 conference games after a conference loss (5-1 ATS this season) and my ratings favor the Monarchs by 6 ? points in this game. The line is a bit high to make this a Best Bet, but I?ll lean with ODU at -7 ? points and I?ll take Old Dominion in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 3-Stars at -6 or less.

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Scott Spreitzer's CBB Conf Tourney Blowout of the Year! *37-18, 67% March Run!
My MAAC Game of the Year is a play on Niagara. These two teams split their season series with Marist taking the most recent meeting, 84-65. That loss served as a wake-up call for the Purple Eagles. Since then, Niagara has gone 8-3 SU and no one has been able to slow them down on the offensive end. The Eagles have averaged 79 PPG during the run. Marist, meanwhile, has gone the other direction. They limp into the tourney on a 3-6 SU slide, with two of those wins coming against a 12-19 Iona squad and lowly St. Peter's. They do have Syracuse-transfer Louis McCroskey back from injury, but they won't be able to hang with Niagara's offensive firepower. As mentioned above, the Red Foxes won the most recent meeting with the Eagles, a game played on their home court. But while Marist is 10-2 at home, they're just 1-4 in neutral site games. And, Niagara can't wait for a shot to atone for their embarrassing loss at Marist. Niagara guard Charron Fisher is the nation's leading scorer at 27.8 PPG. The 6'4, 230-lb., senior, had his worst shooting night of the season, making just 4-of-21 shots. In fact, it was one of just two games this season that Fisher didn't score at least 20 points. As a team, Niagara was ice cold, making just 27% of their shots, including 3-for-27 from area code three. At the same time, Marist couldn't miss. The Foxes his 28-of-56 from the field and 21-of-30 from the charity stripe. It was the Eagles fourth game in 10 days and coach Joe Mihalich said his team was gassed before they even took the court. The red-hot Eagles have had six days to rest for this one and are looking for their second straight trip to the Big Dance. Niagara is an absolute handful to defend when they're on their game like they are right now. Fisher, Tyrone Lewis, and Stanley Hodge combine for 14.7 three-point attempts per game, drawing defenders outside. They can then hammer opponents inside with 6'10 center Benson Egemonye. The Eagles are also tough on the glass with no less than five players averaging between 4.1 and 9.2 boards per game. This is an incredibly tough draw for the sixth-seeded Foxes, even if you take away Niagara's desire to atone for their ugly loss mentioned above. The Eagles began the season thinking MAAC Championship. That goal will remain alive after tonight's tilt. I'm laying the short number with Niagara, my MAAC Tourney GOY

Scott Spreitzer's 20* CBB Under the Radar Blowout! *37-18, 67%!
I'm playing Brown on Saturday night. NIT, CBI, it doesn't matter. The Brown Bears are hungry for a postseason berth and they know they'll get one with a win on Saturday. Last night's easy win over Harvard gave this year's version the most wins in a single season in school history. Tonight, they'll be shooting for their fourth Ivy League weekend sweep of the season. The Bears are a highly underrated team and are still flying under the radar as far as the linesmakers are concerned. Brown has eight non-league victories this season and were ranked a respectable 80th in the RPI before league play began. They had no trouble dismantling the Big Green a month ago, whipping Dartmouth, 77-51. Brown owns the "Brain-Chain's" leading scorer in Mark McAndrew, and the top three-point shooter in school history in senior Damon Huffman. Four players scored in double-figures last night, led by Huffman's 19 points. The team is on a 9-1 run, with the only loss coming to league-champion Cornell. The nine wins have come by an average of more than 14 points per game. Dartmouth crawls into their season finale on a 2-9 slide. They played their tails off last night, (which helps us here), falling by two points in a 50-48 loss to Yale on a late trey. It was yet another night of shooting futility (37%) and horrible work on the glass (minus-18 rebound margin) for the Big Green. And, if you can't score on a consistent basis, you won't hang with a determined Brown squad. The Bears are highly motivated and will put Dartmouth away without much resistance. The Bears gain their fourth weekend Ivy sweep of the season with a win tonight, along with a likely bid to the NIT or CBI. The Bears finish with a bang, and they are my Under the Radar Blowout. Thanks! GL! Scott.

Spritzer
main event................brown
total...........................marquette over 50
mountain west gom......................unlv
sec gom............................arlkansas
metro atlantic goy.................niagra
ko............................lville
ko.............................duke
tko..........................drake
5 star.....................air force
5 star..................new mex st
ko........................maghic
4 star.........................portland

also releasing over 6.5 la kings

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BEN BURNS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

OREGON STATE
Game: Arizona St. vs. Oregon St.
Prediction: Oregon St. Reason: I'm taking the points with OREGON STATE. The Beavers have had an awful season. This is their last chance to avoid going winless in conference play though, something no other team has ever done in Pac-10 history. I expect that to provide them with a ton of motivation here. The Sun Devils are a solid team. However, they're arguably not as good as USC, Stanford or Washington State. At least, they rank behind each of those teams in the conference standings and went 2-4 in six games against them. Yet, the line was only single digits when USC traveled here and it was also single-digits when Stanford played here. It was -11.5 when the Cougars (who swept ASU) played here and the Beavers very nearly covered, losing by 13. The point I am trying to make is that I feel this afternoon's line is too high, particularly when the Beavers should be as motivated as they've been for any game all year. While they did cover vs. the Beavers when the teams met at Arizona State (note today's line is nearly as high as that one was) the Sun Devils remain an ugly 7-13 ATS the last 20 times that they were favored by greater than eight points. Including a 4-point win last season, the Beavers are 3-1 SU/ATS the last four times that they hosted the Sun Devils with the lone loss coming by just two points. Look for an inspired effort as they continue their homecourt success in this series and (at least) hang within the generous number.

NORTHWESTERN
Game: Wisconsin vs. Northwestern
Prediction: Northwestern Reason: I'm taking the points with NORTHWESTERN. Many would argue that this game means more to Wisconsin than it does to Northwestern. Its true that this is a really big game for the Badgers, as they need a victory to completely lock up sole possession of first place in the Big Ten. They currently are guaranteed to at least "share" the title. The fact that they "need a win" has helped to keep this afternoon's line generously high. Additonally, even thoug they need the victory, it would be easy to assume the victory and look past lowly Northwestern to bigger games in the future. Personally, I feel that this is also a really big game for the Wildcats. They've had a dismal season and have long been pencilled in as the 11th and final seed for the conference tournament. Since they aren't likely to make much/any noise in the tournament, this is their one chance to really go out with a bang and to try and earn a conference home win. Depsite their poor overall record, the Wildcats have been very competitive lately. After losing by only two points at Iowa, they lost by just three here vs. Indiana. They followed that up with an outright win at Michigan. Naturally, all three of those games resulted in pointspread victories. Off that upset, they lost at Purdue the following game. However, they bounced back with anoter solid effort last time out, losing by just five. The Wildcats played the Badgers tough most of the way at Wisconsin and eventually covered the spread, losing by 12. The Wildcats are also 3-0 ATS the last three times they hosted the Badgers. In 2004, listed as 10 point underdogs, they won outright by a score of 69-51, covering by nearly 30. They also covered by double-digits here in 2006, winning outright by 11 points as a 4-point underdog. Last year, listed as 11 point underdogs, the Wildcats lost by just five. Look for them to give the Badgers a much tougher game than expected once again, improving to 7-1 ATS the last eight series meetings. *Big 10 GOW

USC
Game: Stanford vs. USC
Prediction: USC Reason: I'm playing on USC. Stanford has had an excellent season and is a strong team. However, the Cardinal comes off a heartrbreaking overtime loss at UCLA on Thursday. Off that devastating defeat, I expect them to struggle against the revenge-minded Trojans. USC played the Cardinal tough at Stanford, losing by six and covering as +7.5 point dogs. Note that the Cardinal shot just 27% in that game, their worst shooting performance this millennium. The Trojans, who are 4-1 SU the last five times (13-7 L20) that they attempted to avenge a road loss, have also won three straight home meetings in this series. They've won 37 of their last 50 home games, while going 25-12 during that stretch when playing with one or less day's rest in between games. While the Cardinal are already locked into the second seed for the conference and assured of a ticket to the "Big Dance," the Trojans could use one more victory to really "seal the deal." Look for them to get that win this afternoon.

GEORGETOWN
Game: Louisville vs. Georgetown
Prediction: Georgetown Reason: I'm laying the points with GEORGETOWN. I've had this game circled for awhile and really like the Hoyas to close out their regular season with a victory in front of the home fans, sending out their seniors in style. I'm particularly happy that the line has come down slightly from its opening number, giving us additional value. Like me, both these teams have been waiting for this game and there's a ton on the line. Obviously, Louisville really wants this game. With a victory, the Cardinals would wrap up the conference title, keep their momentum going, get the top seed in the conference tournament AND achieve a better seed in the Big Dance. All that goes for Georgetown too though AND the Hoyas also have some additional motivation. For starters, they're playing with "revenge" from a loss at Louisville, which saw them blow an eight-point halftime lead. Additionally, this is "Senior Day" for the likes of Roy Hibbert, Johnathan Wallace, Patrick Ewing Jr. and Tyler Crawford. This is the class (along with Jeff Green who is already in the NBA) that "restored order" at Georgetown and brought respect back to the storied basketball program. Those seniors have a lot of pride and are well aware of their place in Georgetown history. As Hibbert said: "This is what you live for in college basketball. This is the way to go out in my senior year. I feel that 20 years from now, I think we'll be remembered as that group of guys that helped bring Georgetown back." A victory here would give them back to back Big East titles, further cementing that legacy. Both teams have excellent defenses. However, Georgetown's numbers are better. Louisville allows 61.1 points per game. That number swells to 66.2 on the road though. The Hoyas allow just 57.5 points per game and a mere 55.6 here at home. Georgetown has also shown a tendency to play well against other strong defensive teams. In fact, the Hoyas are 27-14 ATS (33-13 SU) over the past three seasons when playing a team which allows 64 points or less per game. Conversely, during the same stretch, the Cardinals have gone just 19-22 ATS when matched up against a team which allows 64 points or less. The Cardinals are just 4-7 ATS (1-3 ATS this season) the last 11 times they played with five or six day's rest in between cames. During the same stretch, the Hoyas were 13-3 SU when playing with five or six day's rest in between games. Look for the Hoyas revenge-minded senior class to improve on those stats this afternoon, covering the small number along the way. *Big East GOY

NBA

UNDER Wizards/Bobcats
Game: Charlotte Bobcats vs. Washington Wizards Game Time: 3/8/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Wizards and Bobcats to finish UNDER the number. The Wizards, who played an overtime game last night, managed only 69 points the last time that they played the second of back to back games. Looking back further and we find that the Wizards have scored 85 points or less, six of the last nine times that they played the second of back to back games. Despite this fact, this evening's over/under number is a few points higher than it was for any of this season's previous meetings, giving us excellent value with the UNDER. The Bobcats, who are enjoying a rare winning streak, saw last night's game sneak below the total, holding Atlanta to 93 points. That brought the UNDER to 5-1-1 the last seven times that they played after having won three or more consecutive games. Note that the Bobcats have also seen the UNDER go 9-5 this season after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. Meanwhile, we find the uNDER at 4-1 when the Wizards played a home game with an over/under line that ranged between 195 and 199.5 points and 5-2 when they were listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. Look for tonight's final combined score to be lower than expected once again. *Blue Chip

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Stan Sharp

Rare play triple dime play

BIG BET of the YEAR

TULSA

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Paul Leiner

100* Duke -1

50* Over Den/Utah 223

10* USC Pk
10* Villanova +1.5

5* Kansas State -4

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GOLD SHEET LATE PHONES

Louisville
St Joe
Oklahoma
San Diego State

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DR BOB -

West Virginia (-9) 3-Stars at -9 or less, 2-Stars up to -10.
Wake Forest (-7) 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars up to -8.
Texas Tech (-1 1/2) 2-Stars at -2 or less, 3-Stars at -1 or better.
Texas A&M (+5) 2-Stars at +5 or more, 3-Stars at +6 or more.
California (+15) 2-Stars at +15, 3-Stars at +15 1/2 or more

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