Monday Service Plays

Re: Monday Service Plays

Net Prophet

AFL

San Jose/Chicago UNDER 97'

CBB

Pepperdine +3 over San Francisco

NHL

Boston +115 over Washington
Boston/Washington UNDER 5' -120
Anaheim -135 over Washington

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Peter Loshak

The contest inside HP Pavilion tonight offers a double-decker of value.  Cash out twice taking the Canadiens and the Under when Montreal heads west to San Jose to meet the Sharks.

On Monday in the NHL, the game between Montreal and San Jose presents two underdog overnight lines that are looking to me like they may have some value – Montreal on the money line at +110, and the Under 5, also at +110.
Canadiens +110 & Under 5 at Sharks

The Canadiens are the top team in the Northeast Division, and they are gearing up for a deep run in the playoffs, yet they decided to trade away their season-long starting goaltender, Cristobal Huet, prior to the trade deadline. This was not an accident, and it shows how much faith the team has in their new starter, 20-year-old rookie Carey Price.  Price has certainly not disappointed in his new role, as he has yielded only four goals in his three games – all wins – since taking over the reins as the starter.

San Jose, for their part, is a top team defensively, but they have not fared well at home this year. Despite having a strong overall record, they are only slightly above .500 at home, and I think they will be vulnerable here returning from a long road trip, facing an energized and quality opponent in the Canadiens.

Still, the Sharks’ impressive team defense may well be able to keep Montreal’s scoring to a minimum, which is why I am also looking at the under here. Montreal really shines offensively when they are on a power play, and they can be explosive when facing teams with average defensive capabilities. But San Jose runs a tight and effective ship on the defensive end, and it will not be easy for Montreal to run up the score as they often do against lesser teams.

Adding it all up, I see this as likely to be a low-scoring, intense and competitive game. Getting underdog odds on both the Canadiens to win and the Under looks good to me, so I’ll be on Montreal +110 and Under 5 (+110) on Monday evening.

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ROCKY WINNERS CIRCLE

SAN FRANCISCO -3


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Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Mavs/Jazz UNDER 203

The last time these teams played in Utah, we had a similar situation where the number was set at 203.5 and neither team reached the century mark to cash under bets.  After allowing the Kings to score 106 points and the Lakers to score 108 with Kobe going off, look for a much better defensive performance out of the Mavs tonight.  4 of the last 5 games in this series played at Utah have gone under the number.  Utah is 10-2 UNDER against Southwest division opponents this season and Dallas is 47-19 UNDER against Northwest division opponents since 1996.  Dallas is 23-10 UNDER in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons and Utah is 104-67 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996. 

Take the UNDER.

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Tony Weston

We start that road to destruction in LaLa Land as the Los Angeles Clippers host the Philadelphia 76ers in a game the Sixers will dominate.

These two teams met not even a month ago in Philly when the Sixers destroyed the Clippers 101-80 as 6 1/2 point favorites.

Since then the Clippers have gone 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS. Over their last five games the Clippers are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS. Over that 5-game stretch Los Angeles has been outscored on average 102.4-85.6.

The Sixers, on the other hand, are 6-3 SU and ATS since last beating the Clippers. Over that 9-game stretch Philadelphia has outscored its opponents by an average score of 101.6-98.3.

Philly is also 3-1 SU and ATS its last four games, three of which have come on the road.

Even though this has been an ugly season for the Sixers, they still find themselves in the playoff race out East. You can hardly say the same about the Clippers.

Take Philly on the road.

3* SIXERS (1* to 5* Scale)

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Jake Timlin

In a make up game for an early rain out last month look for the Yellow Jackets to make it 2 straight over what is still a very bad Virginia team despite their recent surge. You see for the Yellow Jackets not only are they looking to make it two straight wins over all after their win over Wake Forest over the weekend, but Tech is looking series sweep after beating the Cavaliers in overtime by 10 on the road. In that first meeting is was the Yellow Jackets who used their advantage in the paint as well as slowing down Singletary who was harassed all game long for a poor shooting game. Well thanks to being at home and still with an advantage down low look for Tech to steam roll over a Virginia team that is making their second trip to Atlanta. All Georgia Tech minus the home chalk!

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Matt Rivers

For Monday take the Jazz at home.

Dallas just had the tough overtime loss at Staples against the Lakers and now has an even harder task as playing the Jazz in Salt Lake City is as tough as they come.

Obviously Utah has not been too good on the road but when home they are as money as money could ever be. Jerry Sloan's team is extremely dominant at the Palace and never lose on their home floor. That obviously doesn't mean they will 100% cover the number but this price is cheap enough where a win should be a cover.

Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko and the rest of this Utah team is so confident at home that it is beginning to get a little scary for any team they play in the playoffs as right there you are almost looking at three automatic Utah wins.

I'm sure Mark Cuban's Mavs will come with some game because they are an elite team for sure now with Jason Kidd running the show alongside Dirk, Jason Terry, Josh Howard and others but if there was ever a time that a team will run out of gas this is it!

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Re: Monday Service Plays

USA Sports Consulting

Utah -6.5


Lockoftheday

TexasTech +19

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Wunderdog

Baltimore at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Baltimore +118

The Orioles' bats boomed for 11 runs yesterday against the Nationals and have now produced 6+ runs a game so far this spring. The Dodgers' bats have not come around yet as they have plated just three runs a game thus far. The O's send Brian Burres to the mound to face off with Chad Billingsley. We like the run-producing O's lineup to pick up their fourth win of the spring.


Game: Tampa Bay at Detroit
Pick: Tampa Bay +130

Tigers' pitchers have done well thus far, but the bats have not gotten it going yet, as they are producing just three runs a game. The Rays' bats have been alive scoring at least five in each game - a number the Tigers haven't reached all spring. Jeremy Bonderman gets the start for the Tigers against Matt Garza for the Rays. We like the way the Rays are swinging the bats early and will ride them here.

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LT Profits

Pittsburgh +5.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers beat the West Virginia Mountaineers at the buzzer 55-54 when they met in Pittsburgh a month ago, and we look for another similarly tight game at Morgantown this evening.

That win marked the Panthers’ fourth straight victory in this head-to-head series, with two of those victories coming here in West Virginia. Now granted, Pittsburgh is much better at home than on the road this season, but it is not as if they are totally incapable on the road, as they are 6-6 ATS away from home and they are coming off of an exhilarating come-from-behind victory at Syracuse on Saturday.

Now West Virginia is 20-9 on the year, but the Mounties rely heavily on their perimeter shooting, and Pittsburgh has already proven they can defend that well, limiting the Mountaineers to just 35.8 percent from the floor in that last meeting. We have already seen what happens to West Virginia when their shots are not falling, even at home where they were embarrassed 62-39 by Cincinnati earlier this year.

Now we do not expect the Mountaineers to shoot 35.8 percent again, but we do think that the stiff Pittsburgh defense will make enough stops to take this game down to the wire again.

Pittsburgh +5.5


Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Clippers u188.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have had trouble scoring points all year and the Philadelphia 76ers have tended to play at the pace of their opposition, which sets up nicely for an Under this evening.

The Clippers are averaging just 93.9 points per game overall this season, and they have actually been slightly worse here at home where they average 92.8 points. Not surprisingly, the Under is 35-22 in all Clippers games this season, including 20-11 at home and 8-2 in their last 10 games overall. Worse yet, their offense has actually gotten worse lately, as they are averaging a pathetic 85.6 points over the last five games.

Now the Sixers are coming off of a 119-114 upset of the Suns at Phoenix, but that score had a lit more to do with the Phoenix pace than the ability of the Philadelphia offense, and besides the 76ers can be expected to have a letdown tonight after such a big win. Expect them to return to their normal level here, and the Sixers are averaging 94.5 points per road contest on the year.

Finally, the Under is 3-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings including their encounter in Philadelphia last month where the clubs combined for 181 points. They may not even reach that total tonight the way the Clippers are shooting right now.

76ers, Clippers Under 188.5

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Re: Monday Service Plays

CAPPERS ACCESS

W. Virginia

Santa Clara


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Re: Monday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Georgia Tech -4.5

Virginia's true colors have shown in ACC play where the Cavs are just 3-10 this season.  They have really struggled on the road winning only 3 of 11 road contests.  Georgia Tech is 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in the last 9 home meetings against the Cavs.  The Yellow Jackets are an even more impressive 15-4 SU and 16-3 ATS in all games against Virginia since 1997.  Georgia Tech won by 10 on the road at Virginia in late January and I have no reason to believe that the Jackets can't repeat that performance at home tonight.  Virginia is 9-25 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997, is 0-6 ATS when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons, and just 8-21 ATS in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1997.  Tech is 16-6 ATS in all home games over the last 2 seasons.  Take the Jackets here.

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Wunderdog

Saint Mary's at Portland
Pick: Saint Mary's -13

The Gaels lost at Gonzaga on Saturday, and now need to win the conference tournament, or gain an at large bid. That means there is no fooling around with this game, as each additional win just builds the resume.Portland has been a disaster vs the good teams on their schedule. They have met Gonzaga twice, St. Mary's, BYU, and Oregon. The results aren't pretty. They have lost all 5 ATS, and have come no closer than 22! They have allowed 51.8% shooting, and 40% from 3 in these games, as well as getting torched on the boards 38.2-25.8, or by nearly 13 a game. They have shot just 35.5% and 25.8% from 3. The Pilots have managed just 2 covers in their last 12 games, and have basically packed it in. St.Mary's wins here by 20+.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

John Ryan

Texas Tech vs. Kansas
Play: UNDER

Ai Simulator 3* graded play UNDER Texas Tech/Kansas – AiS shows a 73% probability that 145 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 67-33 UNDER since 1997. Play under with road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points that are off an upset win over a conference rival and were installed as a home dog. Texas Tech does not look to shoot three’s as their first offensive option. Note that Kansas is 10-0 UNDER versus teams who attempt 14 or less 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. TT was whistled for a large amount of fouls in their last game against Texas and this puts them into a very strong UNDER role for this game. Note that TT is 6-0 UNDER in road games after a game where their opponent was called for 27 or more fouls over the last 3 seasons. Under wins the money.

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Priceless Picks

1 Unit on 76ers/Clippers UNDER 188

The Clippers are 9-0 UNDER in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, 8-1 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season, and 17-8 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  The Clipps are 15-3 UNDER off a home loss this season and 9-0 UNDER after 4 or more consecutive losses this season and 9-0 UNDER after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse this season.  The Clippers have been an UNDERS machine at 8-1-1 UNDER in their last 10 games.  We'll follow the numbers to a winner here.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Matty O'Shea
PICK: Philadelphia 76ers -3

King Creole
Hornets/Knicks UNDER 195.5

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Larry Ness

Today's Pick: UTAH JAZZ

PF Boozer (21.4-10.8) and PG Williams (19.1-9.9 APG) are Utah's two best players but the addition of shooting guard Kyle Korver (9.9) on Dec 29, was the spark that turned around the season for the Jazz. Utah beat Portland at home on Dec 31, with Korver making his first appearance in a Jazz uniform (18 minutes / 11 points). The win ended Portland's 13-game winning streak and was the start of the 22-6 run Utah will take into tonight's home game with the Mavs. It includes a 15-game home winning streak in which Utah has gone 11-4 ATS. The Mavs have been able to match Utah's 25-3 home mark but after going 31-10 on the road last year, Dallas is just 14-18 SU on the road this year, after yesterday's 108-104 loss in overtime to the Lakers in LA. I'm of the belief, that like with the Suns acquiring Shaq, the Mavs didn't improve their team by getting Kidd. In his 14th season, Kidd is shooting a career-low 37.7 percent from the floor and his current average of 11.3 PPG would be the second-lowest season average of his career. Utah and Dallas have split the first two meetings this season with each winning at home. Lay the points with the Jazz.

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Cajun Sports

Game:Pittsburgh Panthers vs West Virginia Mountaineers

Rating: TWO-Star

Selection: WEST VIRGINIA -5.5

Analysis: This contest matches two Big East 20 game winners looking to improve their NCAA Tourney position. Both teams having played games on the road on Saturday means the “Under” is always worth a look. Pitt is coming in off a come from behind win over the Orange in the Carrier Dome on Saturday. The Panthers were down by 11 points with less than four minutes to play and went on a 9-0 run to get the 82 to 77 win. West Virginia lost on Saturday at UCONN as a 3.5 point road underdog 79 to 71. In this match up we expect the Mounties to get a little revenge for a tough one point loss in the Steel City to these Panthers back on February 7th, 55 to 54 as a 3 point road underdog. There is also technical support for our selection and in comes in the form of West Virginia is a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the number in their last four home games of the season and also a perfect 4-0 against the number when installed as a last home game favorite facing winning teams and seeking revenge. The fact that the Panthers are coming in off a game versus Syracuse also helps on the technical side as they are a money burning 1-7 against the number as an underdog in this situation. We have a road team coming off an emotional come from behind win and a home team off a road loss, we are backing the host here as they look to avenge an earlier loss and have technical support on their side. One final technical note we have a system that tells us to Play On CBB home teams as a favorite or pick revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, in a game involving two teams with a winning percentage of 60% to 80% on the year, 94-52 ATS the last three seasons.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

FERRINGO

1.5-Unit Play. First Half: Take Santa Clara (+8.5) over Gonzaga
1-Unit Play. Take #719 Santa Clara (+15) over Gonzaga

The top tier of the WCC has been very competitive within itself and I expect a tightly played game between these two rivals. Gonzaga may come out in a little bit of a funk after basically winning their Super Bowl on Saturday by crushing St. Mary's at home. I don't expect them to come out guns blazing against Santa Clara's deliberate style. The Broncos were awful for a half against Portland, but they started to play in the last eight minutes and even though they lost I do expect that to carryover a bit. Gonzaga's bigs are soft on the interior and I think John Bryant can continue his solid play (23 ppg in L5). If Santa Clara can hit anything from the outside (and they are shooting a stellar 41.7 percent from 3-point land on the road and 41.9 percent from deep in their L5 overall) then I think they can hang around here.

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DOC'S

4 Unit Play. #708 Take West Virginia -5 ½ over Pittsburgh
Big Monday starts in Big East land when the Panthers are set to invade Morgantown, as the Backyard Brawl is renewed. Both teams are sitting on the tournament bubble but we will side with the home squad tonight, as the Mountaineers are 12-2 when playing at the Coliseum. Pittsburgh won on a three point shot at the buzzer and revenge will be best served on the field.

4 Unit Play. #712 Take Utah State -8 ½ over Fresno State 
This line should be much higher since the Aggies have yet to lose a game in Logan this season and the Bulldogs are just 2-11 when playing outside of Fresno. Utah State has already beaten the Bulldogs in Fresno and will complete the season series sweep on Monday. The Aggies sit just one game out of first place in the WAC and this will likely be a one bid conference this year so it is very important to secure the top seed come conference tournament time. This game will get ugly earlier and the Aggies will cruise to a much needed victory.

4 Unit Play. #726 Take Georgia Tech -4 ½ over Virginia
This is a make-up game from February and this does not bode well for the Hokies, who live and die based on the play of Sean Singletary. Both of these teams will be lucky to make the NIT tournament, but Tech has a much better conference record leading the Cavaliers but two games in the standings. Tech is coming off an 8-point victory over Wake Forest and will follow that up with a victory against another bad team on Monday.

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