Saturday Service Plays
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Our 3 selections are Texas Tech, Southern Illinois and Arkansas.
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Vanderbilt. The Razorbacks come into this afternoon's contest off back to back losses, and they'll try to snap their losing streak against a Vandy team off an upset of #1-ranked Tennessee. I think John Pelphrey's men will take care of business today, as they're a solid 13-1 at home this season. And college teams with strong home courts, with at least 5 home wins, and no more than 1 home loss, are a solid 32-13 ATS since 1991 off exactly two SU/ATS losses, if matched up against a foe off an upset win. SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas.
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders plus the points over Texas. Pat Knight's men laid an egg at Texas A&M, and were drilled 98-54. After the game, Coach Knight said his kids didn't compete from start to finish. And this season, there has been a clear dichotomy between the Red Raiders' home and away performances. At home, Texas Tech has rolled to a 12-1 record, while they're 3-11 away from home. And they've covered eight of their last nine home games. Texas has won eight straight games, but Big 12 teams off seven or more wins are a poor 24-40 ATS since 2001, including 12-23 ATS vs. foes with revenge. BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas Tech.
At 8:30 PM (time change), our selection is on the Southern Illinois Salukis minus the points over Illinois State. This is the Salukis final home game of the season, and they fall into a super 188-120 ATS "Last Home Game" System of mine that plays on certain strong home teams (with a 12-3 or better home record) that are not favored by more than 13 points, and who are matched up against a non-revenging foe. And if our home team is off a double-digit cover in its last game, our 188-120 system tightens up to 45-16 ATS since 1991. Southern Illinois lost to Illinois State 56-47 back on January 5, but had won 11 consecutive games vs. the Redbirds prior to that defeat. Take Southern Illinois. MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
(7:05) ORLANDO MAGIC 109 - New York Knicks 97
(8:05) Utah Jazz 98 - MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 89
(8:35) San Antonio Spurs 104 - MILWAUKEE BUCKS 100
(9:05) PHOENIX SUNS 126 - Philadelphia 76ers 112
(10:35) Detroit Pistons 95 - L.A. CLIPPERS 79 (NBA)
BEST BETS: PHOENIX, DETROIT (2)
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
GEORGIA STATE over Js Madison (Sat) RATING: 3
INDIANA STATE over Missouri State (Sat) RATING: 4
BEST BETS: GEORGIA STATE, WRIGHT STATE, BRADLEY, SETON HALL,
FLORIDA, ARKANSAS, INDIANA STATE, HOFSTRA, SOUTH FLORIDA,
TOLEDO, YALE, TULSA, PEPPERDINE, BOISE STATE
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Ryan 10* Southern Conference GOY Georgia Southern
Ryan's 10* Southern Conference Game of the Year
Ryan is 6-1 ATS with his 10* NCAA Monster releases. This is his 10* Southern Conference Game of the Year. This play is backed by Ryan’s extensive research featuring a 10-year 78% ATS system and game dependent angles sporting a 45-14 ATS mark for 76% ATS. Pay only when this Monster wins ATS.
Ryan 10* Southern Conference GOY Georgia Southern
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Illinois vs. Iowa
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Iowa ? AiS shows a 72% probability that Iowa will win this game. AiS also shows an 85% probability that Iowa will hit 40% or better from the field. Note that Illinois is 0-11 ATS when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game this season. Iowa plays a slow down type of game generating just 46 shots per game. Note that Illinois does not play well when there is no flow to the game sporting a 4-12 ATS versus slow down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game over the last 2 seasons. Iowa has actually played up to their potential in the last two games covering both road games against Michigan State and Penn State. In the PSU game they shot 57.5% from the floor. The last time they shot over 50% was on 1/30 at Purdue in a game they lost, but covered. In the next game against Ohio State they won SU as a 5 point dog. Take Iowa.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Game: Texas vs. Texas Tech
Prediction: Texas Tech Reason: I'm taking the points with TEXAS TECH. I played against the Red Raiders last time out and they got crushed. However, that was on the road vs. a revenge-minded Texas A&M team. Today it's the Red Raiders that play with "revenge" and the team which is playing on its home floor. That's extremely significant as the Red Raiders are an entirely different club here at home. Indeed, they're 12-1 here on the season, outscoring opponents by a 75.8 to 62.1 margin. Note that the lone loss came by only two points. Additionally, note that the Red Raiders have beaten the likes of Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Texas A&M and Kansas State. In their last game here, prior to the blowout loss at Texas A&M, the Red Raiders beat the Cyclones by double-digits. Note that the Longhorns had real trouble when they visited Iowa State, battling back from a second deficit to eventually win in overtime. They managed to squeak out a cover but didn't look sharp the entire game. Coincidentally, that game vs. the Cyclones was the only previous time this season (before today) that the Longhorns were playing the second of back to back true road games. Despite the rather "fortunate" cover at Iowa State, the Longhorns are still just 5-11 ATS the last 16 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. The Longhorns also lost by double-digits at both Missouri and Texas A&M, showing that they can be beaten on the road. Needless to say, coach Knight (Bobby's son) was not impressed with the Red Raiders' loss to the Aggies: "I want to apologize to our fans because we just did not compete tonight," Knight said. "That's the bottom line. I hate to lose, but I can at least take getting beat if we compete..." Look for the Red Raiders to come out with a chip on their shoulder, bouncing back from the big loss and improving to 6-1 ATS the last seven times they were coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. *Best Bet
Game: George Mason vs. Northeastern
Prediction: Northeastern Reason: I'm taking the points with NORTHEASTERN. The Patriots have the better record. However, the Huskies have several signficant factors in their favor. For starters, they're playing at home. That's noteworthy as they're 15-5 their last 20 games here and no opponent has scored more than 70 points here in 2008. For the season, they're allowing a mere 61.7 points per game on this floor. George Mason, on the other hand, allows more than 71 per game on the road. Therefore, its no surprise that the Patriots are just 3-6-2 ATS on the road. The Huskies also figure to have a major motivational edge. This is their final regular season game and they'd really like to close out the season by snapping their losing streak and delivering a win in front of the home fans. Additionally, they're playing with serious "revenge" as the Patriots handed them their worst loss of the season when the teams met in January. Conversely, the Patriots don't have much to play for at all. They already earned an emotional victory in their home finale and clinched the second seed and the bye that goes with it. I feel that it will be very easy for them to look past this "meaningless" game ahead to more important games on deck. The Patriots last visited here late last February. They were listed as -3.5 point road favorites for that game yet the Huskies crushed them by 23 points. I expect the revenge-minded Huskies to be the hungrier team once again and look for them to improve to 6-2-1 ATS the past three seasons after failing to cover the spread in their previous three games. Colonial Athletic Association GOY
Game: Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas
Prediction: Arkansas Reason: I'm laying the points with ARKANSAS. The Commodores come in with the higher ranking. However, the Razorbacks are favored for good reason. I won with the Commodores when they defeated Tennessee. That was a great spot for them though. Not only were they playing at home, where they've been outstanding (18-0!) all season, but they were also catching the Volunteers off a win over the #1 ranked team in the country. The roles are reversed for Vanderbilt this afternoon though. This time, it's the Commodores which find themselves playing on the road after upsetting the #1 team in the country. They're also traveling to a venue where they've had very little success. Indeed, the Commodores have lost five straight at Arkansas since a 80-73 win during the 1995-96 season. Overall, Vanderbilt has lost six of the last seven series meetings. Note that the Commodores are also an awful 28-50-1 ATS over the past decade when coming off a win over a conference opponent. During that stretch they've gone just 10-16 ATS when listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. The Commodores did manage victories in each of their last two road games. However, those games came against Georgia and South Carolina. Their previous four road games came at Ole Miss, Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky. The Commodores were 0-4 in those four games. They lost each by a minimum of six points and by an average of 16 points. The Razorbacks have faced a couple of the same teams in their past four home games. Those games came vs. LSU, Ole Miss, Florida and Mississippi State. The Razorbacks were a perfect 4-0 in those games and each win came by a minimum of six points and by an average of nearly 18. while the Razborbacks are outscoring opponents by a 77.2 to 60.9 margin at home, the Commodores are getting outscored by a 74 to 72.8 margin on the road. The Razorbacks are a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five meetings here with the five wins each coming by a minimum of eight points. I'm expecting another convincing victory this afternoon. *Personal Favorite
Game: San Jose Sharks vs. St. Louis Blues
Prediction: St. Louis Blues Reason: I'm playing on ST LOUIS. The Blues desperately need a victory and the situation is in their favor this evening. While St. Louis had last night off, the Sharks went into Detroit and defeated the Red Wings. Off that big win, the Sharks are now playing the final game of their season-high, eight-game road trip. That journey has taken them across the country and began way back in mid-November. The Blues came up on the short end of a 2-1 score in their last game. However, they worked hard the entire game and fired a season high 42 shots at the Phoenix goalie Ilya Bryzgalov. Look for the revenge-minded and desperate Blues to build off that effort and for them to have the fresher legs tonight, improving to 6-2 after having played three or more consecutive games which stayed below the number.
Game: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators
Prediction: Ottawa Senators Reason: I'm laying the price with OTTAWA. The Senators didn't win the first game under their new/old coach. However, I fully expect them to win their second. The Penguins acquired Hossa before the trade deadline, giving them one of the potentially more potent attacks around. However, Hossa already got hurt in his Pittsburgh debut and is now out for the next week or so. Additionally, superstar Sidney Crosby remains sidelined. I expect that to be too much to overcome a highly motivated effort from the defending Eastern Conference champions in front of their home fans and a national Canadian audience. The Senators rallied to beat the Penguins, at Pittsburgh, last Saturday. That brought them to 46-26 their last 72 games played on a Saturday. Looking back a little further and we find the Sens at a profitable 30-18 (+7.9) when coming off a 3-game losing streak. Catching the short-handed Pens coming off one of their worst losses of the season and playing the third game of a 3-game road trip, look for the Sens to "get back on track" in a big way.
Game: San Antonio Spurs vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks Reason: I'm taking the points with MILWAUKEE. While they have struggled on the road, the Bucks have looked extremely impressive in beating Detroit, Denver and Cleveland in their last three home games, upping their record to a respectable 16-11 at the Bradley Center. While the Bucks are just 5-5 their last 10 games here, note that all of the five losses came by single-digits. A major part of the reason for the recent sucess here has been the return to health by Michael Redd. Redd has scored 29.2 points per game in his last six, including a 42-point effort against Denver last Saturday. Milwaukee's other starting guard has also been excellent, as Mo Williams is averaging 29 points and 6.7 assists in his last three contests. The Bucks big Australian center Andrew Bogut has also played well against the Spurs, averaging 13.8 points and nine boards. Recently, he's been even better, averaging 16.7 points and 14.3 rebounds in his last three games. As a team, although they failed to cover at San Antonio in November, the Bucks are an impressive 13-5 ATS their last 18 games against the Spurs, including 4-1 ATS the last five. Last year, they were seven point underdogs and beat the Spurs by double-digits here. The previous season, they were five point home underdogs and also won outright against the Spurs here. The Spurs, who won and covered at home in their last three games, won by only one point (as -8.5 point favorites) in their last road game. That brought them to a money-burning 11-16 ATS on the road for the season. Note that they're also just 1-4 ATS after having played three consecutive home games. They're coming off a hard fought win vs. rival Dallas on Thursday and they've got a home and home series vs. the Nets, which starts tomorrow. That's worth noting as we find the Spurs at just 4-8 ATS the last dozen times that they played the front end of back to back games. Look for the Bucks to continue their recent strong homecourt play and also their homecourt success in this series, improving to 10-4 ATS after having scored 105 or more points in their previous game. *Best Bet
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Matt Fargo - 7*
Indiana St. Sycamores -3.5
***NCAA Game of the Year*** If Indiana St. wins on Saturday, something could happen for the first time since 2001 and that is the Sycamores avoiding a first round game in the upcoming MVC Tournament. They will still need some help but a loss mean a first round game is a given. Indiana St. is the epitome of a great home team and a terrible road team. They Sycamores are 12-1 at home and 2-13 on the road. The one home loss this season came against league champion Drake by just seven points.
As much as Indiana St. is a different team at home and on the road, Missouri St. is certainly not far behind. The Bears are 14-2 at home on the season but only 1-11 on the road including a 0-8 record in road MVC games. In total the home team is 50-6 in Indiana St. and Missouri St. games this season which is pretty incredible. Missouri St. has not only been held winless in MVC road games but it has been outscored by 12.3 ppg with the eight losses all coming by at least eight points.
The Bears are coming off their biggest win of the season. They defeated Drake Tuesday but it was more than that. It was the final home game for Missouri St. and its five seniors but making it even more special was that it was the final home game ever at Hammons Student Center. In 32 years at the sight, the Bears went 391-103 which is pretty impressive to say the least. Coming off the most emotional win of the season is not going to be easy, especially with the way Missouri St. has already struggled on the road.
Now back to the consequences for Saturday. If there is a three-way tie, the first tiebreaker would be head-to-head play against the other two teams, with the teams placed in the order of their records against the other two. If Creighton loses, the Sycamores would get the No. 6 spot by virtue of a 2-2 record against Creighton and Northern Iowa, while the Bluejays would be fifth with a 3-1 mark and Northern Iowa would be seventh with a 1-3 mark. This is the ideal situation.
But if Bradley loses, then all three teams would have identical 2-2 marks against each other, leading to an extremely complicated second tiebreaker as teams get points based on their wins against other teams in the conference with the point total for each team beaten based on their spot in the standings. In other words, the Sycamores need to win and hope that either Creighton or Northern Iowa loses to keep things simple. That or take their chances that they’ll have to play an extra game in St. Louis next week.
There is the added motivation of some revenge for this one. The Bears won the first meeting this season by 21 points and the 44 points the Sycamores put up was a season low, tied with the 44 points scored at Bradley. The Sycamore at 3-0 in revenge games this season when playing the second game at home. That includes a 10-point win over Bradley after that egg it laid in Peoria. The Bears have rolled their last two meetings in Terre Haute but that is when the Bears were a really good team. They are not this year.
Missouri St. is 0-11 ATS in its 11 road games this season and it is only 1-10 ATS as an underdog this season. The Sycamores meanwhile are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Also, the Sycamores have won four of five games and they are 17-6 ATS in home games after having won at least three of their last four games since 1997. As for revenge, Indiana St. is 9-2 ATS in home games revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. The Sycamores do it again Saturday in a rout. Play Indiana St. Sycamores 7 Units
Re: Saturday Service Plays
5 units New Jersey +100
Vip Play - Over Colorado St
Chairman - Marquette
Millionaire - St Mary
Money Maker - St Johns
No Limit - West Virginia
Inner Circle - Texas Tech
Billionaire - Arizona State
Perfect Play - Arkansas
Consensus - Hofstra
Money Move - Morehead State
High Roller - Indiana St
Power Play - Miami Florida
Diamond - Uab
Backroom - Georgia State
Chipshot - Arizona St
Double Play - Pittsburgh
Vegas Hotline - Texas Tech
Heavy Hitter - Virginia
Major Shocker - West Virginia
Private Players Club - Miss St
Chalkboard - Virginia
Coach's Consensus - Washington State
Locker Room - Ole Miss
Live Dog - Georgetown
Playbook - Florida
Dallas Sportsmen - Nebraska
BIG AL McMORIDE
CHAMPIONSHIP - TCU
BLUE CHIP - INDIANA ST
LINE MOVER - FULLERTON
10 DIME - CREIGHTON
OFFSHORE STEAM - MOREHEAD STATE
COMPUTER BOY - GONZAGA
Re: Saturday Service Plays
1. 300,000* Bradley
2. 50,000* Cleveland State
3. 50,000* Georgia Southern
4. 50,000* Bucks
1. Bradley- The fact G Daniel Ruffin has been reinstated by Bradley changes everything in this match up. Just to give you an idea of how important Ruffin is to this Braves team, they're 13-5 with him healthy and in the lineup, and are just 4-8 when he's either not playing or not 100%! He's the linchpin that holds this talented team together, and a big part of the reason they'll keep this one close tonight.
We all remember their last meeting, when Bradley thoroughly crushed Creighton 87-59 in Peoria back on February 16th. While many are calling for the Blue Jays to revenge that blow out loss tonight at home, I'm just not convinced they can cover the number in this contest. Sometimes blowouts reveal just as much as close games, and in this case, the Braves blowout of the Blue Jays exposed Creighton's inability to match up with the Braves backcourt.
I know what you're thinking: "But G Andrew Warren is injured, leaving the Braves backcourt down one man." While that's true, its important to note, freshman G Sam Maniscalco has stepped up nicely in Warren's absence, averaging 13 ppg since he went down. Also, while Warren was a cog in the Braves machine, the true pistons of this offense are guards Jeremy Crouch and Ruffin, who dominated their match ups against their Creighton counterparts.
Finally, while Creighton will most likely wins this game, its hard to ignore the Braves recent play, going 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS over their last 11 games! Outright wins at Drake, at Wichita State, and Northern Iowa demonstrate their ability to get the job done on the road, and they'll prove it once again tonight. Look guys, the Braves controlled almost every aspect of their last meeting, and while the Blue Jays will play better at home, its still not enough to cover, plain and simple.
Take Bradley plus the points over Creighton as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Cleveland State- Make no mistake, this is a big game for the Vikings, as a win here would give them 20 wins on the season, just one season removed from 20 losses... An impressive feat to say the least!
Vikings already wiped the floor with the Penguins earlier this season, beating them 77-54 in Cleveland back on December 8th. Several things we learned from that game, including the fact Youngstown State's defense could really care less, allowing the Vikings to shoot a ridiculous 64% from the floor in that game. In fact, the Penguins defense has shown little signs of improvement, allowing 76 ppg on 53% shooting over their last 5 games (no surprise 1-4 SU & 2-2-1 ATS over that span).
Another lesson we learned from their last meeting was that the Penguins frontline is overmatched against the bigger Vikings frontline. Forwards Bullock, Moore, and Tandy shot a ridiculous 12 for 14, helped control the boards (29 to 18 rebounding margin) and sealed off the paint (7 combined blocks - 5 by Tandy).
Note that we haven't even mentioned G Cedric Jackson, who lit up the Penguins for 21 points and 10 assists in their last meeting... Making for mismatches all over the court in this one!
Finally, there's no doubt Youngstown State's 6-1-2 record ATS at home is impressive, but let's not get carried away. This is still a team that has just 3 wins over their last 15 games, and is playing little to no defense right now. Cleveland State wants to get their 20th win badly tonight, and with the mismatches they have all over the court, I say they get it and grab the cash in this one!
Take Cleveland State over Youngstown State in this Horizon League match up.
3. Georgia Southern- While I've riden the Davidson money train on the highway this season plenty of times (They're an impressive 12-4 ATS away), in this case, oddsmakers have gone too far in making them considerable favorites against a rock-solid Georgia Southern squad at home in this one.
First of all, the Eagles are damn good at home, going 12-1 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in Statesboro this season. Their offense is top-notch on the friendly rims, averaging 78 ppg on 48% shooting, led by F Louis Graham and his 17 ppg. Not only that, but their defense, while not on the level of Davidson's, is more than capable of keeping this game within the number at home, allowing 67 ppg on 43% shooting there this season.
Second, there's plenty of motivation to go around, as the Eagles got crushed at the Wildcats house 92-67 in their last meeting. It was an embrassing effort all around, but especially for Louis Graham, who was invisible for the 22 minutes he played, scoring just 7 points while dealing with foul trouble. Eagles were playing poorly at that point in the season, but since then have regrouped, and are looking for payback tonight.
Finally, match ups also dictate a competitive contest tonight, as we know Stephen Curry will score his points, but after him, the Wildcats roster is vulnerable. G Jason Richard and F Thomas Sander both played well at home in their last meeting, but in hostile territory, and against a motivated Eagles defense, I'm expecting much different results from the Davidson role players in this one.
Bottom line, while there's no doubt the Davidson Wildcats are the cream of the Southern Conference crop, Georgia Southern isn't that far behind, especially at home, where they've been excellent this season. Motivated and looking to bounce back from consecutive road losses, the Eagles deliver the payday in this one.
Take Georgia Southern plus the points over Davidson in this Southern Conference match up.
4. Bucks- Before you go dismissing the Bucks in this match up with the mighty Spurs, try and remember that Milwaukee has been playing well at home of late, with outright wins over Detroit, Denver, and Cleveland over their last 3 games at home. Not to mention, covering against New Orleans in the game prior to those 3 games... In other words, Milwaukee is showing plenty of value at home, while the Spurs are constantly overvalued on the road (11-16 ATS away this season).
So why is Milawukee finding success at home? Simple, their offense is starting to produce like we know they can, averaging 105 ppg on 46% shooting over their last 5 games. When you couple that fact, with the increase in defensive intensity we see at home from the Bucks, allowing 98 ppg there this season, and you've got the recipe for some solid home wins.
Granted, I'm not saying the Bucks win outright here, far from it, but what I am saying is they're more than capable of keeping this game close. The Spurs defense is second to none, but their offense has left a lot to be desired of late, scoring 93 ppg over their last 5 games. Pop in the tape of the Spurs last road game, a 100-99 cover by the Timberwolves, and you'll see exactly what I mean.
Finally, while Parker and Ginobili make up a devastating combo for the Spurs, the duo of Redd and Maurice Williams has been heating up, dropping a combined 57 points at the Nets in their last one. Also, Bogut was relatively effective against Tim Duncan in their last meeting, despite playing just 20 minutes due to foul trouble. Look for the young bigman to step up tonight, as the been a big part of the Bucks success at home recently. In the end, the Spurs may win, but the Bucks continue the trend of protecting their house in this one!
Take the Bucks plus the points over the Spurs in this NBA match up.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Bradley vs. Creighton (NCAAB) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6.5/-105 Creighton Play Title: Inside Info Game of the Year
take Creighton to blow Bradley out.
St Bonaventure vs. Saint Louis (NCAAB) - 2:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick on ST BONY
Georgetown vs. Marquette (NCAAB) - 2:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -3.5/-102 Marquette Play Title: Oddsmaker mistake Game of the Month Look for the Golden Eagles to win this game by more than 7 points
Michigan vs. Penn State (NCAAB) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick on MICHIGAN
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