Thursday Service Plays
Re: Thursday Service Plays
Game: Notre Dame vs. Louisville
Prediction: Louisville Reason: I'm laying the points with LOUISVILLE. This is a huge game for both teams as the winner all but wraps up a top-four seed in the Big East tournament and a much-needed first-round bye. The Irish have been playing very well. However, they're 0-2 ATS their last two road games and they'll be facing an even tougher opponent here. The Cardinals come in having gone a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS their last seven games. Since an embarrassing upset loss vs. Cincinnati on New Year's Day, the Cardinals have won all six of their home games. All games came against Big East opponents with the wins each coming by a minimum of eight points and by an average of 16 points. In fact, no Big East team has managed more than 58 points at Freedom Hall this year. The Cardinals have some additional motivation here as the Irish embarrassed them at Notre Dame last season. Pitino knows that Notre Dame didn't have much trouble with Syracuse's zone defense. The Cardinals' "zone" is much more active though and their full court press wears on teams as they have to work to just get the ball up the floor. Syracuse's lack of depth prevented the Orange from extending the defense to get out and challenge the Irish shooters. The Cardinals and their 10-man rotation have no such problems. Get beat, get tired or get in foul trouble and Pitino can (and will) always go with someone else. Note that the Cardinals are also capable of running with teams and have scored 80 or more points three times in their past seven games. The Irish, who are allowing more than 78 points per game over their last five are playing the first of back to back road games here. They've been in that situation twice previously this season and they went 0-2 SU/ATS, losing by a combined 25 points. While the Irish are 4-6 ATS off a conference win the Cardinals are 8-3 ATS when they were coming off a conference win. They're now 20-8 ATS in that situation the past three seasons. Look for the red hot Cardinals to improve on those stats, closing out a perfect month of February with another convincing victory. *Roast
Game: UCLA vs. Arizona St.
Prediction: Arizona St. Reason: I'm taking the points with ARIZONA STATE. We all know that UCLA is a great team. However, the Sun Devils aren't slouches, particularly here at home. They lost by only one vs. Washington State and they've beaten the likes of Arizona and Oregon. They also crushed highly ranked Xavier here by 22 points in non-conference play. More recently, they knocked off Stanford here on Valentine's Day. The Cardinal were only laying three points in that game, as were the Cougars and Musketeers. Tonight's line is significantly higher and I feel that gives us terrific value with the revenge-minded Sun Devils. The Sun Devils were blown out at UCLA earlier. They're 4-2 SU/ATS the last six times they were attempting to avenge an earlier road loss though and they're also a healthy 14-9 ATS the last 23 times they were attempting to avenge a blowout road loss of 20 points or greater. They're allowing just 57 points here on the season, going 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in lined games. The Sun Devils enter with some confidence as they crushed Washington by 14 points in their most recent game and also because they've played the Bruins tough here in recent years. They beat UCLA by 12 points here in 2004 and the last three meetings in 2005-2007 have all been decided by six points or less and by an average of less than four points. The Sun Devils were 4-1 ATS in those games and I look for them to give the Bruins all they can handle once again. *Shocker of the Month
Game: Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Jersey Nets
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks Reason: I'm taking the points with MILWAUKEE. The general public is going to see the relatively low number and be quick to back the Nets here. After all, they're playing at home and they've got the better record. Playing at home hasn't been much of an advantage for the Nets this season though as they're below 500 (14-16) here for the season, going a money-burning 10-19-1 ATS. As for having the better record, the Nets are only a few games ahead of the Bucks and those stats were largely accumulated when the Nets had Jason Kidd and the Bucks were without Michael Redd and others. Kidd is gone from NJ now though and Redd is back and playing well for Milwaukee. Indeed, he hit a game-winning 3-pointer vs. Cleveland on Tuesday, giving him 67 points the past two games and giving the Bucks their third win in four games since the Break. All three of those victories were against high quality teams (Pistons, Nuggets, Cavaliers) too. The Bucks bring both confidence and momentum into tonight's game and they're newly inspired to be back in the playoff race. As Milwaukee coach Larry Krystkowiak had to say: "This league is very much about momentum. Winning in the league is good medicine. It gives you some confidence … We're riding a little mini-wave here and we need to try to keep it rolling." Note that the Bucks are a profitable 9-3 ATS on the season after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. The Bucks will have some additional motivation as they'll be playing with "double-revenge," having lost a pair of close ones against the Nets earlier this season. While the Bucks have struggled to get wins on the road, they have managed a healthy 4-2 ATS mark when listed as a road underdog in the +3.5 to +6 range. Conversely, the Nets are an ugly 3-8-1 ATS when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Look for the Bucks to continue their strong second half play and for the Nets, who lost 102-92 vs. Orlando last time out, to fall to 21-37-2 ATS the last 60 times they were coming off a double-digit loss. *Best Bet
Game: Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Miami Heat Reason: I'm taking the points with MIAMI. The Heat finally put things together last game and recorded a convincing blowout victory over the Kings. That was just what they needed for team morale and confidence and I expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game. Miami shot a whopping 52% (39-of-75) for the game and set a franchise record by holding the Kings to a mere 10% (2-of-20) in the third quarter. As Coach Riley had to say: "I know we’ve had it in us. I don't know where it's been. But, we played extremely well. We just played a complete game for 48 minutes." Yes, the Lakers have been playing very well since picking up Gasol. They finally failed to cover last time out though and I feel tonight's line is too high once again. To put it a different way, I feel that the Lakers are currently over-valued and the Heat are currently under-valued. Note that the Heat are 4-0-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as road underdogs of 12.5 or more points. Conversely, during the same stretch, the Lakers are 1-4 ATS when listed as home favorites of -12.5 or more points. Looking at the series history and we find that the Lakers have only beaten the Heat by more than 13 points three times in the last 20 series meetings and that hasn't happened since 2004, when they won by 15. The last three meetings here in LA have all been decided by eight points or less and by an average of only five. Look for the revenge-minded Heat to build off Tuesday's performance and keep things closer than expected once again, improving to 9-1 ATS their last 10 games against teams from the Pacific Division. *TNT Game of the Month
Game: Phoenix Coyotes vs. St. Louis Blues
Prediction: St. Louis Blues Reason: I'm laying the price with ST. LOUIS. The Blues should be extremely motivated for tonight's game. Not only have they lost four games in a row but they're also playing with "triple revenge," having lost all three series meetings this season. Tonight should be an excellent spot to get some payback as the Coyotes are coming off a hard fought 1-0 loss last night while the Blues had the night off. That's noteworthy as we find Phoenix at 0-4 over the past month, when playing the second of back to back games, getting outscored by a 13-7 margin. Look for an inspired effort from the Blues here, as they have their "revenge" and improve to 6-1 when coming off three consecutive games which stayed below the total. *Personal Favorite
Re: Thursday Service Plays
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): MARYLAND vs WAKE FOREST
Play: WAKE FOREST -2 ( WE WANT YOU TO BUY THE HOOK ON THIS ONE)
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: WAKE FOREST -2 ( WE WANT YOU TO BUY THE HOOK ON THIS ONE TO BRING IT TO -2). Maryland is on a two game losing streak. Now don't be scared in the fact that Maryland already beat Wake Forest 71-64 on their homecourt. Wake had a pitiful shooting night and still kept it reasonable. They'll be home tonight with revenge in mind and only need to slightly improve on their dreadful 5-30 from the arc performance the last time these two teams met. Shooting from your home court will be the cure for that ugly stat. Going off the numbers, Wake should cover this easily but lets grab a hook today and take the 1/2 point to keep this ats line within a basket. Wake comes into tonight with momentum for ats bettors covering the last 8 of 10.
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): IDAHO vs HAWAII
Play: HAWAII -10
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: HAWAII -10. Idaho has lost six of their last seven games. Road losses have been from 8 points to 39 points. For a team who doesn't perform well on the road, it's gonna be uglier tonight as they make the flight out to the big island as that is as extreme a road trip as anyone can have. It's too much to ask of a team to go there and get a win. Hawaii already beat this team by 5 points in Idaho. The extra points for home court advantage and the lackluster road performance of Idaho should give us a big aloha for the cash tonight on Hawaii.
Re: Thursday Service Plays
I was 1-2 on my 3 Wednesday night 2-Star Best Bets, losing with SMU and with Florida International and winning with Auburn +13. I am now 121-110-5 (53%) on my Basketball Best Bets for the season, and 310-287-14 on a Star Basis for a slight loss of -5.7 Stars at -1.10 odds
WISCONSIN (-5) over Michigan State, 2-Stars at -6 or less.
Louisiana Tech (+19 ½) over UTAH STATE,
3-Stars at +19 or more, 2-Stars at +18 1/2 or +18
Re: Thursday Service Plays
Furman vs Citadel
Play: Citadel +1.5
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY SELECTION: Citadel +1.5 Yes, I'm aware that I'm placing a wager on the Shitadel, but I'm looking forward to it as they are in a great spot today. The Citadel as I noted in today's research are a top 330 team, but have no fear Furman is a top 320 team and on the road Furman is actually about 10 slots lower than the Citadel. Although the Citadel has lost consistently this year, they have played some very close games with some relatively tough teams and this is a chance where they can defeat a team that they nearly defeated earlier this year losing 51-53. Will home court, revenge and the fact this team is playing better of late make the difference? I believe so. In fact, I believe the public is likely to get buried in this game as they are favoring So what Furman has a few more wins - that is irrelevant in the Southern conference. The Citadel comes off a 19 point road loss to Western Carolina and are looking for a big bounce-back win at home. How have they done against other top 300 ranked teams? Well, this team defeated top 275 Western Carolina at home and beat Charleston Southern at home. In fact, they have played a starkly tougher schedule this year which is why they have won just a few games - heck, this team lost by 7 points to Chattanooga. In short, I like the fact this team lost by 19 to Western Carolina on the road - it was a revenge game for Western Carolina as Citadel had beaten them at home, this team has won both times they have faced similar competition at home such as Furman, have been playing very well lately with close losses at home to better teams than Furman and have revenge. I have to have multiple reasons to make my limited selections and this fits the criteria as I've explained above, which is probably why I have this game and the one above over 60% significance (only choosing plays that are over 60% sig now - reduced plays, but likely better winning %). Citadel has covered their last 5 home games and have covered 8 of their last 11 ballgames in the Southern Conference.
PLAY OF THE DAY
St. Louis vs St. Joesephs
Play: St. Josephs -11.5 (POD)
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: St. Josephs -11.5 (POD) Yesterday is a perfect example of reducing plays, now 12-2 on 5* selections, but the Pacers, the tertiary play falls short, the under falls just short as well. Only down a small amount in units yesterday, but speaking frankly to you as a client, it's still a small loss in units - around -1.6 units. Is that a lot? no. But, it can add up especially over the course of the month. So, I am going to stick with the reduced plays and only play selections that are over 60% significant on my spreadsheet - in this case, it would have just been New York from yesterday. For example, I have a considerable leans on Louisville, the Spurs and Detroit over Valpo tomorrow - but all fall within that 55% to 59% range. I am very frank with my clients, so I am speaking to you in the exact terms in what I face my selections with. So, the only 2 plays that are over 60% in significance today are St. Josephs and Citadel - with Citadel at 60% sig and St. Josephs at 62% sig. So, those are the only two I am playing today despite wanting to make one of the three mentioned leans above a play. I believe this will increase the winning % and units in the long haul. ^^^^A very nice spot here for St. Joseph as they play a team that they lost to on the road by 73-62 last year - a game that St. Louis was actually under dogged by 7 points. These 2 teams had met 2 previous times and St. Josephs won by 15 and 19 in last year's 2 ballgames. St. Louis is a decent top 125 team but they face a St. Josephs team that is a top 50 team. Let me give you some of St. Louis's road games thus far this year (they are ranked top 150 on the road by the way): losing 40 to 81 top 40 Kent on the road, losing 39 to 61 to Boston College who is a top 125 school, losing 20-49 to George Washington (no, that is not a typo) who is a top 175 school, this team did beat top 175 La Salle on the road, but then followed that up with a 36-63 loss to Dayton who is a top 100 team, they played admirably at Umass and lost 77-88 by 11 points and failed to cover and come off a road loss to Charlotte. This team is likely to play a bit better, but their trouble on the road scoring, the revenge factor for St. Josephs, the fact that St. Josephs is about a 100 points higher given the home court advantage in the power rankings and St. Josephs beat Villanova by 22 and Richmond who is a top 125 team (ST.. Louis is a top 100) by 18, I think St. Josephs has a strong chance of covering today. St. Louis is 1-6 ATS against teams with a winning % of greater than 60% meaning that they are struggling to compete against the better teams in the league and the St. Joseph Hawks are 5-0 ATS when facing a team with a 40% winning road percentage or worse - meaning they are beating the poor road teams significantly at home.
Re: Thursday Service Plays
25 Dime –
Take the points with Loyola Chicago tonight when they travel to take on Wisconsin Milwaukee.
Loyola has stepped it up recently, knocking off Valparaiso last Wednesday and winning at William and Mary on Saturday.
The Ramblers recent success has coincided with their hot shooting from beyond the arc. Justin Cerasoli has been the catalyst, hitting six of eight from 3-point range in the last two games and averaging 19 ppg during that span.
Loyola coach Jim Whitesell has a history of late-season improvement with his squad, having gone 20-7 SU in the month of February since taking the job four seasons ago.
Whitesell’s late-season success has contrasted with Milwaukee’s recent woes. The Panthers have lost six of their last seven and I don’t see them covering this number tonight, even at home.
Take the points with Loyola Chicago as they stay within the number and have an excellent chance at the outright win.
15 Dime –
Take the points with Wright State tonight when they visit Butler.
Wright State is getting absolutely no love from the oddsmaker tonight. This is a 20-win team that’s a double-digit underdog against an opponent they’ve beaten three straight times and nine of the last 11 meetings.
Are you kidding me?
Wright State is a battle-tested team that’s used to playing tight games. In 12 of the Raiders last 13 conference games the outcome has been decided by single-digit margins. Ten of those games have been decided by four points or less.
Butler is a good team, there’s no doubt about that, but to ask them to cover this number against an opponent they’ve struggled against historically is just too much.
The underdog is on a 14-1-1 ATS run in Wright State’s last 16 lined games.
Take the points with Wright State as they keep this one well within the number.
Re: Thursday Service Plays
3*Milwaukee +3.5 over New Jersey
Percentage play on Milwaukee as a conference road underdog playing with double revenge having lost both prior meetings vs New Jersey this season.
4*Lakers -13.5 over Miami
Although Miami won at home Tuesday night snapping an 11 game losing streak the Heat threw in the towel a long time ago. The Heat are 1-11 their last 12 games, 2-26 their last 28 games, 4-22 road, 10-44 overall and have the worst record in the NBA. The Lakers have won 9 straight games, have the best record in the West and if LA comes to play should blow out Miami in a meaningless game for the Heat.
3*Louisiana Tech +19.5 over Utah State
Percentage play on Louisiana Tech as a big double digit conference road underdog playing with revenge for a 10 point 61-71 home loss vs Utah State January 24th and the Bulldogs are a computer play tonight.
3*Washington +11 over Stanford
Percentage play on Washington off of a home loss playing as a double digit conference road underdog with revenge for a 14 point 51-65 home loss vs Stanford January 31st and the Huskies are a computer play tonight.
Re: Thursday Service Plays
pac 10 rev gom....................wash st
3 star........................georgia sounthern
fat man plays...........standford, cal
under the hat.................cal
3 star..................wissc milw
personal best...................n texas
steam.............san jose st
4 star...................murray st
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