Monday Service Plays

Re: Monday Service Plays

Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on San Diego/St. Mary's OVER 128

St. Mary's is averaging 82.1 ppg at home this season.  Even though San Diego will try to slow the game down, it isn't going to be able to completely shut down the Gaels.  San Diego is 12-4 OVER against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons, 24-11 OVER as a road underdog or pick since 1997, and 7-0 OVER after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.  The Toreros are also 11-1 OVER in road games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.  This one will go OVER by at least 10 points.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

LT Profits Sports Group

St. Mary’s is in revenge mode, but San Diego is no pushover, as the Toreros are 8-1 SU in their last nine games and 5-0 SU in their last five road games. Take the points.

This is a revenge game for the St. Mary’s Gaels, who lost on the road to the San Diego Toreros a month ago, but that alone does not justify this huge spread vs. a quality team.

The Toreros are as hot as any team in the West Coast conference right now, and yes that includes St. Mary’s and Gonzaga. San Diego is 8-1 straight up in the last nine games, and they covered the spread in the only loss, a four-point defeat to Gonzaga. Furthermore, they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games, and extended further they are an outstanding 25-11 ATS in their last 36 road contests.

Now St. Mary’s is certainly a quality squad, but they are coming off of a potentially demoralizing 65-57 home loss to Kent State in a Bracket Buster game in a game where they had a chance to make a statement for the conference. Granted, that was their first home SU loss of the season after a 14-0 start, but we simply feel that San Diego is a very difficult team right now to try and rebound against.

While the Gaels will probably win this game on the court, this rather enormous spread gives us plenty of leeway to nab this cover.

Pick: San Diego +12

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Raptors -3.5

The Pacers have lost 11 of their last 14 games SU and 9 of those ATS.  The Raptors have been playing solid basketball and have picked it up of late winning 3 of their last 4 SU and ATS.  Toronto is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS versus the Pacers over the last 2 seasons.  The Pacers are 5-20 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game over the last 2 seasons and 9-19 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.  The Raptors are 22-8 ATS in February games over the last 3 seasons.  This has been Toronto's month.  We'll take the Dinosaurs laying a small number.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Gold Medal Club
18 Karat UNC -Greensboro
14 Karat Valpo


LT'S LOCK
Kansas St. -2


NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
Kansas St. over 148


Big Al McMordie
NO Hornets -10

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BEN BURNS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

UNDER villanova/marquette
Game: Marquette vs. Villanova Game Time: 2/25/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on VILLANOVA and Marquette to finish UNDER the number. Both teams bring some momentum into this evening's game largely due to their excellent defensive play. The Golden Eagles come off four straight SU/ATS victories, allowing an average of just 57.5 points in those games. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have won three in a row, going 4-0 against the number. Prior to the recent streak, Villanova had been a disappointment in Big East play. The difference lately has been on the defensive side of the ball. Indeed, the Wildcats held the Huskies to 65 points on Saturday and also held each of their previous three opponents to 56 points or less. Holding West Virginia to 56, including just 21 in the first half, was particularly impressive as the Mountaineers had averaged 85 points over their previous two games. The whole team has clearly been buying into Jay Wright's message about playing tough defense. As junior forward Dwayne Anderson had to say: "Every guy on the floor is committed to defense, and that's what's really changing everything around for us." Not surprisingly, the UNDER has gone a perfect 6-0 their last six games. Villanova has seen the UNDER go 5-1 on the season when coming off a conference win while Marquette has seen the UNDER go 6-3 in that situation and 3-1 when playing a game (with a total) with one or less day's rest. The Golden Eagles are currently listed as very slight favorites. That's worth noting as Villanova has seen the UNDER go 5-0 when listed as an underdog this season and a profitable 14-2 in that situation, including a 3-0 mark when listed as a home underdog (or pick'em) of three points or less. These teams stayed below the total by double-digits when they faced each other here most recently, in February of 2006. I'm expecting tonight's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again with the UNDER improving to 8-2 in Villanova's last 10 home games. *TV Total of the Week

VILLANOVA
Game: Marquette vs. Villanova Game Time: 2/25/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Villanova Reason: I'm playing on VILLANOVA. Two weeks ago, the Wildcats suffered a heart-breaking loss at Georgetown. Tied with less than a second left, Corey Stokes was called for a foul away from the basket, and the Hoyas knocked down the free throws to win the game. A victory at Georgetown would have done wonders for a team "on the bubble," as the Wildcats are. However, the loss was a killer. Off that devastating defeat, it would have been easy for a still relatively young Villanova squad to hang its head. That's not what happened though. The Wildcats went out and dominated back to back opponents (18 point win at St. John's and a 22 point win vs. West Virginia) before defeating the red hot Connecticut Huskies here on Saturday. They're playing at their best right now and I expect them to carry that momentum into this evening's extremely important contest. Of course, the Golden Eagles are also playing very well, with four straight blowout victories of their own. All four of those games came against teams which are currently 500 or worse in conference play though (combined 19-38) including the two road games which came at Seton Hall and St John's. When stepping up to face the Big East's better teams on the road, the Golden Eagles have lost at Notre Dame, Connecticut, Louisville and West Virginia. The fact is that it's hard to win on the road in the Big East, particularly against the league's better teams. Louisville managed to do so (barely) yesterday but they were the only team to do so over the weekend. The home team was a perfect 8-0 in the other eight Big East games from Thursday through Sunday. Note that Marquette guard Dominic James, one of four players to average double-digits and the team-leader in assists, got hurt last game when the huge Rutgers center rolled over on his leg. He's expected to play but can't necessarily be expected to be 100%. The Wildcats, currently listed as very slight underdogs, are a solid 9-4 SU/ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as home underdogs (or pick'em) of three points or less. Look for them to improve on those numbers here.

NBA BASKETBALL

UNDER Bulls/Mavs
Game: Chicago Bulls vs. Dallas Mavericks Game Time: 2/25/2008 8:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Mavericks and Bulls to finish UNDER the total. Including a 110-97 loss to Houston last night, the Bulls have now been involved in three straight high-scoring games. I expect that trend to come to an end this evening. For starters, they've seen the UNDER go 12-8 the last 20 times that they were playing the second of back to back games. They've also seen the UNDER go an impressive 18-7 the past three seasons after having played three straight games which finished above the total. That includes a 4-1 mark when they've been in that situation this season. The Bulls will be facing a Dallas team which has held back to back opponents to just 83 points and which has seen the UNDER go 10-4 its last 14 games, including a 6-1 mark its last seven against teams with a record below 500. The Mavs have been especially stingy at home of late. In their last game here they held Portland to just 76 points and in their previous game here they allowed only 81. Both those games fell below the number by double-digits, bringing the UNDER to 9-4 the last 13 games on this floor. Note that the Mavericks have also seen the UNDER go 14-8-1 in their "non-conference" games this season. They've held 11 of their last 12 guests to double-digits in scoring and the last time they played a home game after playing the previous day (12/27) they combined with the Cavs for only 169 points. With both teams still adjusting to new faces in the lineup and both playing their second game in two nights, I look for tonight's game to be lower scoring than expected once again. *Blue Chip

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Ryan NHL
3* Flyers


SportsKingz
MARQUETTE pk (10 UNITS)
GONZAGA -15 (5 UNITS)


Jeffersonsports
GONZAGA-15


Armvin Sports
Saint Marys Ca -12


Winners Edge

LA Clippers + 8.5 , 2 units
Dallas Mavs - 9.5 , 2 units

CBB

Texas + 3.5 , 2 units
Portland U + 15 , 1 unit


Gamblers Data
Marquette -1


Mr A's
San Antonio Spurs - 12
Detroit at Denver Under - 206

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Gina

Chicago Bulls (22-33) at Dallas Mavericks (37-19)

Dallas has won 10 straight at home and is 23-3 this season at the American Airlines Center, but just 11-12-3 against the spread on their home court.

The Mavericks have won nine of the last 10 against Chicago at home and will most likely grab another victory against the Bulls tonight, but it won’t be a blowout. Chicago has covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games and six of their last 8 as an underdog. Go with the Bulls to cover, the Mavericks went 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings versus Chicago, but are 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home.

Chicago Bulls


Washington (26-29) at New Orleans (37-17) New Orleans Hornets - 10

Chicago (22-33) at Dallas (37-19) Chicago Bulls + 9

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Ted Sevransky

SD at St. Marys UNDER

REASON FOR PICK: All of San Diego’s success this season has been predicated by their ability to control the pace. The Toreros were able to win at Kentucky, knock off St Mary’s in the first meeting between these two teams and give Gonzaga a real scare last Monday all because of their slow down approach to the game. The Toreros won’t score many quick fast break buckets, utilizing the entire shot clock on the vast majority of their possessions. Nor is San Diego likely to allow St Mary’s to get many easy fast break buckets, playing exceptional transition defense.

The first meeting between these two teams resulted in a 63-55 win for San Diego; a game that went Under the total by 15 points despite a 56% shooting performance from the Toreros. San Diego is unlikely to shoot the ball at that same clip tonight against a St Mary’s squad that has held their last five opponents under 37% from the floor. The Gaels have been an under machine all season; 7-16-1 to the Under this year, including a 9-3 run to the Under in their last dozen games. Kent State slowed down the pace and controlled the game flow in their upset win at St Mary’s over the weekend. Expect a similar slowdown tonight in a game that should finish well Under the total. Take the Under.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Bryan Leonard

Texas at Kansas State Over

Texas is a team that gets a great amount of their play from their starters. In fact, they have the least amount of production from their bench in the country. Therefore when playing a team that forces a high pace the Longhorns struggle defensively.

There have been 10 games this season that Texas has played to a 67 or higher pace. In those games the total points scored averaged 165.4.

Kansas State likes to run as evidenced by their top 30 pace rating. In their 18 home games this season they have played to a pace rating of 67 14 of 18 games. The games in which they did not make the 67 pace rating resulted in total points scored of 110, 129, 128 and 133. Therefore we expect Kansas State to force the tempo and make this a full court game. That means this game should fly over the posted total. PLAY OVER

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Re: Monday Service Plays

DOC'S

4 Unit Play. Take Milwaukee -2 ½ over Valparaiso
The Panthers have been in the midst of a brutal road schedule and are ready for some home cooking on Monday. The Crusaders are coming off a dramatic double overtime victory against Miami on Saturday and have not had ample time to recover for tonight contest. The Panthers have already won in Indiana this season and will compete the series sweep tonight U.S. Cellular Arena. Paige Paulson will come up big yet again propelling his squad to victory.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

FERRINGO

2-Unit Play. Take Marquette (-2) over Villanova
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 141.5 Marquette at Villanova (7 p.m., Monday, Feb. 25)
Marquette has FINALLY started playing up to its potential and has started playing like the team that took the floor in Maui back in the beginning of the season. They have been playing better on the road lately and our either catching the Wildcats at the best time or the worst time. Nova just scored a big win over Connecticut over the weekend and could have a letdown. They have looked like they turned the corner recently, playing much better after a mid-season swoon, but they are just 2-8 ATS at home lately and are just 5-17 at home against teams with a winning percentage over .600. Villanova is a young, unpredictable, guard-oriented group. Marquette plays a similar game, but they have more overall talent and experience, and I give the edge to their interior players. This game will be close, but I think we're on the right side of a short number.

2-Unit Play.Wisconsin-Milwaukee (-2.5) over Valparaiso
After a promising start the Crusaders have found it to be tough sledding in the Horizon League, especially on the road. UW-M is exactly the type of athletic, random, street-ball club that gives Valpo trouble on the perimeter and I think there's a chance they could get run out of the gym tonight. Valpo is in the midst of a 2-7 ATS run, and are 1-7-1 ATS in Horizon play. UW-Milwaukee has been a solid bounceback team, going 6-1 ATS after a loss. I tihnk they rebound at home and lay a big number on Valpo.

2-Unit Play. Take Texas (+3) over Kansas State
Hey, let's ride the hot hand. Once A.J. Abrams got his shooting touch back this Longhorns team went from good to Nasty. They have the best backcourt in the nation, and K-State has become a bit too reliant on Walker and The Big Frosh. That interior tandem went for over 70 at Baylor and I don't know if they can duplicate that feat tonight. K-State has been fantastic at home, but UT is just too strong right now. I think they can matchup on the interior and at least slow down State's Big 2. Oh, and we're getting points on a team that's won seven straight and covered six straight, is 7-2 ATS as a dog, and is playing in a series where the puppy has covered six straight

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Re: Monday Service Plays

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

2-Unit Play. Take Texas +3 over Kansas State

Seven straight wins for the Longhorns, going 6-0 ATS in those games, its safe to say Texas is peaking at the right time. The 'Horns have also won three in a row on the road in Big 12 play, and they are facing a Wildcats team that is struggling. Kansas State has dropped two straight and four of its last seven, and being at home doesn't assume into a win against this tough and talented Texas team that has a nice balance of outside shooting and athletic interior presence. The underdog has covered the last six meetings, and Texas will hear as well with the outright win.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Michael Cannon

25 Dime –

MARQUETTE

Take Marquette for the road win tonight over Villanova.

Granted, Villanova has been playing good basketball lately, but they haven’t been as impressive as the Golden Eagles have been.

Marquette has won four straight by an average of more than 20 points. They are getting superb play from their defense, which has been forcing turnovers and turning them into fast break points.

Villanova likes to slow it down and Marquette is fine playing at that pace too. It actually helps the Golden Eagles defense in that they won’t have to expend much energy running up and down the court chasing an up tempo team.

The Wildcats start two freshmen and they’re going to have to grow up real quick tonight facing Marquette’s defensive pressure. The Golden Eagles have forced 23 turnovers in each of their last two games.

Villanova is on a 2-8 ATS slide in its last 10 home games.

Take Marquette for the road win as they get it done tonight over Villanova.

10 Dime –

KANSAS STATE

Take K-State at home as the small chalk for the win and cover over Texas.

Texas is the team coming in on a roll, but they’re going to have their hands full defending the Wildcats dynamic duo of Michael Beasley and Bill Walker. The two combined for 75 points in the Wildcats 92-86 loss at Baylor on Saturday.

We’re getting some line value with Kansas State for tonight’s game as they’ve dropped three of four, with all the losses coming on the road, while the Longhorns come in having won seven straight.

But the Wildcats have won 11 in a row at home and with the line diminished all they have to do tonight is win and they will most likely cover.

Texas has been playing great defense the last few games, but they’re going to have to step it up to a new level if they’re going to hold Beasley and Walker in check.

Kansas State is on a 20-8 ATS run in its last 28 home games.

Take Kansas State as they grab the home win and cover.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

1. 300,000* St. Mary's
2. 50,000* Pacers
3. 50,000* Santa Clara

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Re: Monday Service Plays

BiG AL

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats, as Jay Wright's men fall into an 40-11 ATS momentum system of mine that plays on certain .571 (or better) home teams off back-to-back wins, and four or more covers, which are matched up against .561 (or better) opponents off a win and cover. And if our home team's last victory was by less than 10 points, then our 81-28 stat zooms to 23-2 ATS since 1991. With Villanova in off three straight wins (and four covers), including a 67-65 victory over UConn as a 1-point favorite on Saturday, and Marquette in off a 78-48 victory over Rutgers, the Wildcats fall squarely within our 23-2 ATS tightener. Finally, Villanova is 17-1 at home since 1992 off back to back wins vs. Big East foes, if its foe is also off back to back wins, but has not won more than five straight games. Take the Wildcats.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

GamblersWorld

TIP OF THE DAY Sport: Philadelphia Flyers vs. Buffalo Sabres

Prediction: Buffalo Sabres

Current Line: -185 Over/Under: 6 Reason: The Philadelphia Flyers and the Buffalo Sabres will both be gunning for a victory on Monday when they meet at HSBC Arena. Oddsmakers currently have the Sabres listed as 185-moneyline favorites versus the Flyers, while the game's total is sitting at 6. Daniel Briere had the only Flyers goal in their 2-1 loss to the Florida Panthers on Saturday night. The Panthers were winners as +130 road underdogs in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the night's posted total (5.5). Ales Kotalik scored twice for Buffalo in their 4-3 loss to the New York Rangers on Saturday night. The Rangers had been listed at -105 on the road in that contest, while the combined score went OVER the night's posted total (5.5). Current streak: Philadelphia has lost 10 straight games. Team records: Philadelphia: 30-25-7 Buffalo: 30-24-8 Philadelphia most recently: When playing on Monday are 5-4-1 Before playing Tampa Bay are 4-6 After playing Florida are 5-5 After a loss are 1-9 Buffalo most recently: When playing on Monday are 6-4 Before playing Colorado are 6-4 After playing NY Rangers are 5-5 After a loss are 5-5 A few trends to consider: The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Buffalo The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road Philadelphia is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Buffalo Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia Buffalo is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia Buffalo is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Wunderdog

Atlanta at San Antonio
Pick: Game Total UNDER 187

Everyone is talking about the improvements of the Lakers, Suns and Mavs after the big trades. But let's not forget about the defending NBA champs. The Spurs didn't make any big moves but they have quietly won nine of their last ten games. Was there any doubt they would catch the Hornets in the Southwest? This team is allowing just 89 ppg on the season at home and they get a Hawks club averaging just 91.4 per game on the road. Atlanta reeled off seven straight OVERs before going UNDER last game vs. Utah. The Hawks are 10-2 UNDER this season on the road coming off an UNDER performance. The Spurs are 28-15 UNDER the past three seasons at home vs. non-conference foes and 15-5 UNDER this season off a home win.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

InfoPlays

3* on Bulls/Mavericks UNDER 196

We will favor the UNDER tonight in this contest between two defensive-minded squads in the Mavs and Bulls.  The Mavs have gone UNDER is 6 of their last 8 games overall.  The Bulls have gone OVER in 3 consecutive games now, but that means this is a great spot to bet the Under in accordance with the following trend.  The Bulls are 18-7 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.  The Mavs are 28-15 UNDER in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.  Bet the UNDER 196 points.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Priceless Picks

1 Unit on Denver Nuggets +1

After embarrassing the Suns last night, I look for the Pistons to experience a letdown against one of the best home squads in the NBA.  Denver has lost back-to-back games on the road to lesser opponents and will be hungry tonight with the opportunity to prove themselves against one of the best teams in the league.  Denver is 22-6 at home this season and 17-11 ATS in those games.  The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest, 19-7 ATS in their last 26 vs. NBA Central, and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.  Take the Nuggets at home.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Marco D'Angelo
Toronto Raptors -3

Matty O'Shea 
Kansas State -3


JWhip
Villanova +2


JB 
Atlanta Hawks +12

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