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Jimmy The Moose

Game: Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers
Prediction: Toronto Raptors

Reason: The Raptors are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last 4 games. Indiana is 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 games. The Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing record. In their last 17 games as a favorite, Toronto is 12-5 at the window. Indiana is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home dog. In their last 11 games played with 1 day rest between games the Pacers are 3-8 ATS. Toronto is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to Indiana. The Pacers are 8-20 ATS in the last 28 meetings between the clubs.

Play on the Raptors

POINTWISE

WISC-MILWAUKEE over Valparaiso RATING: 5

Vegas Experts

Texas Longhorns at Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State beat Kansas here at home in January 84-75 but has since gone 3-4 in Big 12 play. However, the losses all came on the Conference road while here at home it is 6-0. Texas is cruising along at 23-4 and 10-2 in the Big 12 but its two losses (to Missouri and Oklahoma) came on the Conference road. Last two in this series have been decided by one point with the road sides winning and Kansas State getting the money. There was a 73-72 win by the Wildcats in Austin last year and a 65-64 win by the eight-point choice Longhorns here in 2006.

Play on: Kansas State

Greg Daraban

Atlanta (22-31) at San Antonio (37-17)

Two teams going in opposite directions. Atlanta has lost 7 of 10. The Spurs have won 5 straight and 9 of 10. They win and cover.

Take San Antonio

Peter Loshak

Wisconsin-Milwaukee is seeking revenge from a 2-point loss at Valparaiso back in January.  Make your play on the Panthers at home tonight when they host the Crusaders.

The overnight line for a key Horizon League matchup on Monday between Valparaiso and Wisconsin-Milwaukee has caught my eye. UWM was installed as only a two-point favorite at opening, a line which has since risen a half-point, and I think it is still a little low. I’ll take a shot with the Panthers at that line, which may well have risen a bit further still by game time.

Both teams played in the BracketBuster series of mid-major showdowns on Saturday, which may serve to set UWM up for a strong showing on Monday. Valparaiso beat MAC mediocrity Miami-Ohio in double OT on the road, while UWM lost on the road to Bradley, a decent MVC squad. Valparaiso’s game may have taken a lot out of them, while UWM may have gotten a bit of a wake-up call to get back down to winning.

UWM has now lost five out of their last six, but four of those games were on the road and their two home games consisted of a solid win over Wisconsin-Green Bay, a similar team to Valparaiso, and a tough OT loss to nationally ranked Horizon League powerhouse Butler. All of the Panthers' losing has taken place against tough teams in tough circumstances, and I don’t think it is indicative of any kind of fundamental slide on their part. But all those losses are, I think, what is serving to keep their line for this game lower that it ought to be.

Valparaiso, for their part, is a solid Horizon team. Their BracketBuster win showed notably resilient character, and they are clearly a team that does have ability to compete well. But they are also still a team that for the most part, loses its road games against capable conference foes. The Crusaders have lost their last four conference road games in a row, all against competition roughly equivalent to Milwaukee's.

With their OT loss to Butler and their BracketBuster loss on Saturday, I think UWM will be unusually eager to secure a win here, and Valparaiso may well not have the fortitude to stand up to UWM’s determination in this instance. So I’ll go with what I see as value on the side of the Panthers -2½ on Monday evening.

Sports Gambling Hotline

Marquette at VILLANOVA -1

Should be a good one in the Big East tonight, but we are going to side with the home team in this battle, as Villanova appears to have shaken off their recent 1-6 tailspin.

The Wildcats have rattled off 3 wins in a row, including a gut-check 67-65 win over red-hot Connecticut over the weekend.

Marquette is on a bit of a roll as well, as Tom Crean's team has won 4 straight, and are on a 5-game spread winning streak as well. Our feeling is the home court edge will make the difference tonight, as 5 of Marquette's 6 losses this season have come on the road.

The Golden Eagles have solidified their credentials for next month's Big Dance, while Villanova could use another big win to add to their resume. Look for that win to come tonight over Top-25 Marquette.

Play on the Wildcats.

4* VILLANOVA

Jim Feist

DET Pistons @ DEN Nuggets

It’s always tough for teams in any sport to head to Denver because of the high altitude. Detroit is not only a long way from home, but in a difficult scheduling spot, playing the second of a back to back road game. The Pistons played Sunday at Phoenix in a national TV showdown, and now have to fly to Denver. The Nuggets are rested and like to run, running right at the tired veteran Detroit legs. They are also money makers at home, at 22-6 SU, 17-11 ATS.

Play the Nuggets

Matt Fargo

San Diego vs. Saint Marys CA
Play: San Diego   

St. Mary’s looks like the perfect take here. The Gaels are coming off their first home loss of the season and they are now playing with some revenge following their only conference loss of the season that took place in San Diego exactly four weeks ago. The problem is that both of these factors are being taken into consideration with this line as it has been overadjusted making a St. Mary’s play impossible and thus putting the Toreros in the spot now.

Let’s take one quick look at how this line has been overadjusted. Earlier in the season, St. Mary’s was favored by 14 points at home over Santa Clara, who is 5-6 in the conference. Now, the Gaels are favored over a 9-2 San Diego team by nearly the same amount points as that? I need to hear the explanation of this because it does not make sense no matter how many ways you look at it. Revenge can only go so far especially when playing against a team that is just a game back in the conference standings.

San Diego has won eight of its last nine games with the one loss being a home defeat to Gonzaga by just four points. As a matter of fact, the Toreros have lost only twice since January 12th and both of those defeats were against the Bulldogs. They have won five straight games on the road including a victory over Santa Clara this past weekend it what easily could have been a huge lookahead spot. Instead, the Toreros simply played their game and continued their solid season.

St. Mary’s is pretty banged up as well. Center Omar Samhan and forward Lucas Walker both incurred right shoulder injuries on Saturday. Samhan is a game-time decision and Walker is questionable. Samhan, who hurt that same shoulder against Santa Clara 12 days ago, did not return to the game. In the first meeting, St. Mary’s struggled to contain Brandon Johnson and Gyno Pomare, who scored 25 and 20 points respectively. San Diego was successful, just like Kent St. was, in slowing the pace to a half court game.

St. Mary’s has struggled in games when it cannot control the tempo, going 3-12 ATS against teams that allow 64 or fewer ppg over the last two seasons. San Diego meanwhile is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more and 13-3 ATS in road conference games over the last two seasons. The Toreros are also in a solid situation. Play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after three or more straight covers and playing their 2nd game in three days. This situation is 38-16 ATS (70.4 percent) over the last five seasons.

Play San Diego Toreros 1 Unit

John Ryan

Game: San Diego at St. Marys
Prediction: San Diego

Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on San Diego ? AiS shows a 70% probability that SD will lose this game by 11 or fewer points. Many of you benefitted greatly from my winning 10* Monster DOG Game of the Year on ken State when they won straight up on the road against St., Mary?s and were installed as a 8.5 point dog too. This loss at home is devastating to St. Mary?s, who to this point had believed they were a true and worthy top-25 team in the country. Not the case come Monday morning and this hangover ? no matter what team we are talking about ? will have a distinct effect in the next game. AiS also shows a 79% probability that SD will hit at least 40% from the field tonight. Note that SD is 12-3 ATS when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-16 ATS for 70% since 2002. Play on road dogs of 10 to 19.5 points after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games and is playing their 2nd game in 3 days. Take SD to keep this game much closer than anyone believes possible.

Scott Rickenbach

Washington Wizards (+) @ New Orleans

The Wizards are a classic example of an ugly dog in this spot. Washington, despite still dealing with injuries to Caron Butler and Gilbert Arenas, is playing much better than many expected they would. They can absolutely compete here with a Hornets team that has struggled recently. New Orleans is coming off back to back losses including a tough defeat at San Antonio on Saturday night. That leaves New Orleans with a little bit of a "hangover" heading into this game and we don't expect them to 'shake it' quickly. The fact is that the Hornets will be able to run and gun tonight since that's what the Wizards like to do also. However, the dropoff in defensive intensity for the Hornets will mean that the road team should be able to stay inside the big number in this one all game long.

Play Washington plus the points.