Wednesday Service Plays

Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Wolkosky Milan

10* PHILADELPHIA -6
10* NEW JERSEY +3
10* DETROIT -6
10* DALLAS +2½
10* PHOENIX -3½
10* SACRAMENTO -5½
10* BOS/GSW UNDER 219

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Northcoast

4* CLEVELAND STATE

3* WEST VIRGINIA

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Priceless Picks

1 Unit on Tulane +13

Memphis barely lived to see another day as the only unbeaten remaining in CBB and you'll see the Tigers tighten up again on the road tonight as they look ahead to Saturday's matchup with Tennessee.  Tulane has nothing to lose going up against the Tigers and this is the attitude that all of these Conference USA teams have been taking to give Memphis several scares.  As a result of these close games, the Tigers are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5.  Tulane keeps this one within the 13 points tonight.

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Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on North Carolina -8

This game means a lot to the NC State Wolf Pack, but I just don't think Sidney Lowe's squad will have enough in its tank to pull off the upset.  UNC is 17-6 ATS in all games this season.  It is a perfect 12-0 on the road and 8-4 ATS in those contests.  NC State is just 3-7 ATS at home and 3-8 ATS in ACC play.  The Pack are only 6-16 ATS in all lined games this season.  UNC won by 31 points in round one at its place back in January and has won 7 of the last 10 meetings SU and ATS at NC State.  This game will be considerably closer, but when it's all said and done, a Wolf Pack team which averages just 67.6 ppg can't compete with the high powered Heels, which average 90.4 ppg.  Lay the points.

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Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Kansas State -3

Nebraska has been solid at home this season, but let's be honest, most of the damage it did on its home floor was done in non-conference play.  Nebraska is just 3-7 in the Big 12 this season and 2-8 ATS in those games.  K-State is 8-2 SU and ATS in the Big 12.  Nebraska does not have a soul which can come close to guarding freshman sensation Michael Beasley tonight.  Just Two weeks ago the Wildcats beat Nebraska by 15 points.  I don't think the 3 the Huskers are catching tonight will cut it.   Nebraska is just 4-12 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and with the Cats in the thick of the conference race, it's just not going to happen.  Lay the points.

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Dc Sports

CHI BULLS -HOME RUN PLAY
MILWAUKEE OVER
N. ORLEANS

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Will Cover Sports

4* Cleveland State


RINKPLAY SPORTS

3* Calgary Flames & Dallas Stars Over

Free Selection: Washington Capitals

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Dave Malinsky comp 4* play

GAME: Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns

PICK: Los Angeles Lakers

Offered at: 3.5

REASON FOR PICK: 4* L.A. LAKERS over PHOENIX

The fact that the early line is holding steady here tells us that the marketplace has an entirely different view of Shaq joining the Suns than we do. We are not sure that they have helped themselves at all in the long run, and certainly do not believe that they will be ready to match what the Lakers bring tonight. It is a case of having to take a step back before they can go forwards, and there is absolutely an “if” attached.

Adding a 35-year old center that weights over 300 pounds and clearly has his best days behind him was not a talent upgrade for Phoenix over Shawn Marion, and it creates real adjustment issues for a team that plays the way that the Suns do. Yes, getting Marion out of the locker room might be good karma, but there could be some harsh realities ahead. It begins tonight as they try to somehow make the chemistry puzzle work, and this is hardly the opponent that Mike D’Antoni would like to be facing right now. But the coach is caught in a real bind, with this game followed by the Celtics and Pistons, and he acknowledges that they are going to be a work in progress - “Every day is one step closer to the team we want to be. There are going to be bumps in the road, but we have 29 games to get it straight and 29 games to win also. We want to make sure it doesn’t become the Shaq Show — that it’s still the Phoenix Suns Show — and find that balance that makes it all work.”

The Lakers are much closer to finding their balance, having had Pau Gasol on board for a couple of weeks now. The assimilation has been seamless so far – in games with him in the lineup in which they have had at least one day of preparation time for their opponent they have gone 5-0 SU and ATS, beating the spread by 49 points, and averaging 113.0 per game in the process. Now it is a back-to-back setting, but instead of that being a negative it turns around here – it is a plus for them to have been on the court after the All Star break, and the first half vs. Atlanta on Tuesday might have been as good as any NBA team has played all season. They exploded to a 73-37 advantage that enabled Phil Jackson to give the starters most of the second half off, and that means plenty of physical energy as well as having had another good chance to develop chemistry.

If there is any positive at all to having Shaq on board for Phoenix it is in the form of tougher defense around the basket, but even that is not a factor at all tonight – Gasol will take him away from his comfort zone, and he can get lost guarding someone more than 10 feet from the basket. It all helps the better and more cohesive team to win this game outright, with the points being offered a nice cushion. A 3* plus the points and a 1* Money Line would be the proper way to go here.

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Ted Sevransky

PICK: Valparaiso

REASON FOR PICK: This isn’t the first time that we’ve asked Valparaiso to cover the pointspread for us in hostile environments, and it might not be the last time either. The Crusaders have proven their mettle on the highway in Horizon League play, winning outright at Detroit, Wright State and Youngstown. The Crusaders are in a positive frame of mind after snapping an ugly five game losing streak with a 19 point win and cover over the weekend. And, with seeding in the upcoming Horizon League tournament a huge deal, with games played on the higher seeds home floor, Valpo isn’t going to take any opponent lightly down the stretch, especially an opponent that beat them by two in Indiana earlier in the season.

The revenge motif means something in tonight’s game, as do the seeding issues for the upcoming tournament. Loyola stands just behind Valpo in the Horizon League standings, and would win the seeding tiebreaker with a season sweep over the Crusaders. The Ramblers were on fire from downtown in the road upset at Valpo as 12 point underdogs, the only reason that they were able to win the game. For a team hitting a woeful 27% from three point range for the season, it’s unlikely that Loyola will be able to hit 50% from beyond the arc against Valpo again tonight.

The Ramblers are certainly beatable on their home floor. They’ve lost three straight overall, and have lost at home four times already in conference play, with a fifth game going into overtime. Quite simply, this is a bad offensive team, held under 60 points per game for the season, shooting just 40% from the floor. Facing a revenge minded foe that is more talented than they are, expect the Ramblers losing streak to continue tonight.

Take Valpariaso.

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Larry Ness

PICK: Illinois-Chicago

REASON FOR PICK: Butler is 24-2 this year, including 13-2 in the Horizon, giving them a two-game lead over second-place Wright State with three league games remaining. The Bulldogs have a Bracket Buster game coming up this Saturday when they host No. 16 Drake of the Missouri Valley Conference on Saturday, so while this is a conference game, Illinois-Chicago just may be able to "sneak up" on the Bulldogs. Butler's 51-46 victory over Cleveland State last Saturday was its eighth straight since a 56-52 loss to those same Vikings on Jan 17. However, after recording season highs of 89 points and 62.3 percent shooting in a victory over Youngstown State last Thursday, the Bulldogs were held to their second-lowest point total of the season on Saturday by CSU. Butler is clearly the class of the Horizon with the senior guard duo of Green (15.1-6.3-4.9) and Graves (13.8) leading the way. Up front there are 6-8 freshman Howard (13.2-5.7) and 6-7 senior Campbell (11.0) plus three versatile swingman, Betko (4.9-2.7), Veasley (4.8-3.5) and Streicher (4.3-2.0), who complete the "cast of characters." However, despite a 24-2 record this year, the Bulldogs are just 12-11-2 ATS. In Horizon play, the Bulldogs are 4-7-2 ATS. So let's give the Flames a shot here, as they are 11-1 SU at home, going 8-1 ATS. Guard Mayo (18.1-2.7-3.6) gets lots of help on the perimeter from White (9.0), Kreps (8.3), Bush (6.8) and Stewart (6.0). Inside, the 7-0 VanderMeer (9.3-7.5) could easily give the Bulldogs trouble, while forwards Dailey (5.0-3.9), Boyd (4.8) and Buttell (3.8-4.5) give the Flames nice depth inside. Let's note that the Flames upset the then-No. 12 Bulldogs 73-67 in overtime on Jan 10, 2007, in Butler's last visit to Chicago, so why not again here?

Take the points with Illinois-Chicago.

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mvbski wrote:


Dc Sports

CHI BULLS -HOME RUN PLAY
MILWAUKEE OVER
N. ORLEANS

Is this Doc's Sports? or a different company?  Thanks for you postings mvbski!

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Black Magic Sports

NCAA Basketball:

5 Unit Black Magic Big East Bank Breaker on Villanova +1.5

Villanova should not be the underdog at home tonight and now it’s time to capitalize. Break the bank with Villanova over West Virginia Wednesday. Villanova owns a 10-2 home record with an average margin of victory of 10 points per game. The Wildcats have one of the best home venues that college basketball has to offer. Villanova is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. West Virginia is 6-17 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games since 1997. Villanova takes a big step towards making the NCAA Tournament tonight. Cash in with Villanova as the underdog.

3 Unit Sharp Play on Wisconsin-Green Bay -2

Wisconsin-Green Bay is getting the right price on the road against a terrible Youngstown State ball club Wednesday. Youngstown State is just 8-18 on the season and are just 4-12 in conference play. Youngstown has lost 9 out of their last 10 games overall. Wisconsin Green Bay is 13-4 straight up and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings with Youngstown. Youngstown State is 3-14 ATS after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher since 1997. WGB will take advantage of Youngstown’s porous defense tonight and keep their dominance of this team in tact. Cash in with Wisconsin-Green Bay as the favorite.

3 Unit Sharp Play on Marshall -3.5

Marshall has been playing their best basketball as of late. UTEP is just 3-8 on the road this season while giving up more than 77 points per game. Marshall is 12-2 at home this year and they own one of the best home records in all of the Conference USA. Marshall has won 3 straight games including a 34-point home win over East Carolina and a 14-point win over Tulane their last time out. UTEP lost their last road game by 23 points to Tulsa and have failed to cover the spread in 3 consecutive games now. UTEP is 1-11 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. Marshall just has too much offense for UTEP to contain tonight. Cash in with Marshall as the favorite.

3 Unit Sharp Play on Cincinnati -7

Cincinnati is a sleeper in the Big East conference. The Bearcats were picked to finish near the bottom of the pack, but they have swayed their doubters with a 7-5 conference record. They are also 9-3 ATS in conference play this season, which says a lot when playing in the best conference in America. South Florida is just 2-11 in Big East play with a 5-8 ATS mark. South Florida is 1-11 in their last 12 games overall. This will clearly be a blowout home win by Cincinnati tonight. Cincinnati is 10-0 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days this season. The Bearcats play their best on some nice rest. Cash in with Cincinnati as the favorite.

NBA:

4 Unit NBA Wednesday BEST BET on Boston Celtics -2.5

The Boston Celtics finally suffered their first loss of the season to a Western Conference opponent last night. They are now 16-1 against Western Conference foes this year. Kevin Garnett made his first appearance back from injury last night against the Nuggets. We expect Garnett to be much better in his 2nd game back, and for Boston to run away with this game at Golden State. Boston held Golden State to a season low in points in a 105-82 win on November 21, 2007 earlier this season. The Celtics’ defense will slow down this fast-breaking style of offense once again. Boston is 21-8 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 22-7 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with Boston as the favorite.

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woodyb97 wrote:


mvbski wrote:


Dc Sports

CHI BULLS -HOME RUN PLAY
MILWAUKEE OVER
N. ORLEANS

Is this Doc's Sports? or a different company?  Thanks for you postings mvbski!

No it's Dc Sports they are with the Sports Memo group

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Erin Reyning

Indiana +2


Dallas +2.5


Mississippi -1

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Yankee Capper

LA Lakers +4 1/2


Rocketman Sports

NCAAB
3* NC Charlotte -1
3* Illinois State -9

NHL
3* Minnesota -115

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John Ryan

Detroit U vs. Wright State

Play: Wright State

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Wright State – AiS shows a 75% probability that WST will win this game by 10 or more points over Detroit. Based on the AiS WST has an 82% probability that they will hit 47% or better from the field. Note that Detroit is 2-13 ATS in road games when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 70-34 ATS for 67% since 2002. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 125 points or less.

Take Wright State.

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ATS LOCK

S Fla +7 1/2
Marq. -8
NC St. +7


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SportsBook Free Picks

New Orleans -2  3.0 units
Boston -2 -108  1.5 units

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Black Magic Sports

1 Unit on Richmond +1

Richmond takes on a struggling Charlotte team that doesn’t stand a chance Wednesday.  Charlotte lost to Richmond by 6 points at home, and that started their terrible skid in which Charlotte has lost 4 out of their last 5 games overall.  The last 3 games in which Richmond has been the underdog, they have won outright each time.  They beat Charlotte as an 11-point dog, Temple as a 3-point dog and most recently beat Duquesne as a 14-point dog their last time out.  This Richmond team is very experienced with 4 starters back from last year so don’t expect a letdown tonight.  Richmond is 10-3 ATS as an underdog this season.  They clearly don’t like getting disrespected as the underdog this year.  Cash in with Richmond as the dog.

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Black Widow Sports

1* on Toronto Raptors -4

Toronto will continue their dominance of the Orlando Magic tonight as just a small home favorite.  Toronto is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Magic.  The Raptors might get T.J. Ford back into the line-up tonight as their floor general as he is listed as day-to-day with a wrist injury.  Whether Ford plays or not, Toronto is the right pick tonight at home.  Orlando is coming off an emotional win over the Pistons last night.  The Raptors are looking to revenge a 9-point loss to the Magic from their November 7th meeting this season.  Toronto is 19-7 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.  The Raptors will continue to dominate this division tonight with a big home win over Orlando.  Take Toronto and lay the points.

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