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Saturday Service Plays
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Dr Bob Early
IOWA STATE (-1) over Nebraska, 3-Stars at -1 or better, 2-Stars at -1 1/2 or -2 points.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (+6 ½) over Western Kentucky, 2-Stars at +6 or more, 3-Stars at +7 or more.
Auburn (+13) over MISSISSIPPI, 2-Stars at +13, 3-Stars at +13 1/2 or more
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Strike Point Sports Picks For College Basketball
3-Unit Play. #707 Take Kentucky -2.5 over LSU
The Wildcats now know they are fully backed up against the wall. After getting sandblasted at Vandy earlier this week, nothing less than a stellar finish to the season is going to get them into the NCAA Tournament. And if nothing else, they certainly need to save some face for the program and come out strong in this one. LSU is also just 9-14 and they have arguably been worse than Kentucky in the SEC.
3-Unit Play. #723 Take Akron -4 over Bowling Green
In the first meeting this year, the Zips put a beatdown on the Falcons by 36 points. Akron remains one of the stronger teams in the MAC, and after a bad loss last game, look for them to bounce back and get a season sweep of Bowling Green. The Zips cover in this all-Ohio affair.
2-Unit Play. #748 Take Dayton -4 over Temple
If the Flyers are ever going to get things going, it has to be here at home against a Temple team that has shown inconsistencies this year. Dayton has been tough at home at 12-2, and that's where senior leader Brian Roberts seems to take over. The Owls pretty much lucked out with two straight overtime victories in their last couple of games. Not a very good road team, we'll be the home team to get back on track.
2-Unit Play. #750 Take Iowa State -1.5 over Nebraska
Yes, somewhat mediocre this year, but the Cyclones have shown much more at home this season with an 11-4 mark. Just as much, Nebraska is not good away from Lincoln at just 1-5, and the Cornhuskers are only 2-8 ATS in their last ten games in conference play. Iowa State has covered four of the last five meetings, and they'll take care of business in this one as well.
6-Unit Play (Game of the Week). #781 Take Southern Illinois -2 over Wichita State
Last time out, the Salukis registered the best win so far in Missouri Valley play this season by beating red hot Drake. Southern Illinois remains a postseason threat with a conference tournament title still a possibility, but this is one series they have dominated. SIU is 9-1 ATS in the last ten vs. the Shockers, and it's safe to say this year Wichita State is not right, just 3-11 in league play. Southern Illinois keeps it going with the victory and the cover as a small favorite.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
College Opinion/Possible Best Bet
INDIANA STATE (+1 ½) over Illinois State
Indiana State is 10-1 straight up at home with their only loss coming against a 15th ranked Drake team with a 22-2 record. The Sycamores have home wins over Creighton, Southern Illinois and Bradley, who are all about the same caliber as Illinois State. Indiana State also applies to a decent 46-14-2 ATS home momentum situation and the Sycamores are 5-1 ATS in conference home games. Unfortunately, my ratings favor Illinois State by 2 points, so I’ll just lean with Indiana State at pick to +1 ½ and I’ll take Indiana State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT
EASTERN KENTUCKY vs SAMFORD OVER 110
Special Total...Missouri UNDER
Power Play...Youngstown State
High Roller...Eastern Washington
Money Move...New Mexico
Double Play...So Florida
Private Players Club...St John's
Playbook...San Diego State
Dallas Sportsmen...Mississippi State
Re: Saturday Service Plays
706 SO FL+7
709 VA TECH+14
718 NO IOWA+2.5
745 OK ST+13
756 TEXAS TECH-2
775 TEXAS UNDER 153
796 SO CAROLINA-2.5
829 FAU OVER 143
843 MICHIGAN ST+5
861 UTAH ST PK
Re: Saturday Service Plays
1. 400,000* Bradley
2. 50,000* Cleveland State
3. 50,000* Akron
1. Bradley- Once again we're calling on Bradley, who was my last 400K college hoops winner when they beat down Missouri State 83-71 at home February 6th. Coming off of 2 straight losses, and now back at home, I'm calling for them to get a resounding victory against a Creighton team that has looked very average on the road of late.
Its hard to ignore the Blue Jays road play of late, as losses at Southern Illinois, at Drake, and at Evansville have shaken this team's confidence to the core. The Evansville loss was an especially disappointing, as clearly Creighton was the better team, but they sure as hell didn't play like it, losing outright 60-56 as 9-point favorites! Creighton committed 20 turnovers in that contest, led by their backcourt (Witter had 6, Watts & Stinnet had 3 apiece)... Not a good sign facing a rock-solid Braves backcourt, where all 4 starting guards have 33 steals or more!
Speaking of the Braves backcourt, clearly this team has benefited greatly from the return of Daneil Ruffin. The talented guard and floor leader for this Braves squad has helped his team go 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS since getting back. He's struggled a bit with his shooting in those consecutive losses, look for a much more efficient effort now back at home (his last home game he dropped 25 points on 5 of 11 shooting).
Finally, on top of Creighton's road troubles, and the improved play of the Braves behind Ruffin, there's little payback in order this afternoon. The Braves haven't forgotten that the Blue Jays beat them in both meetings last season, including an embarassing 82-71 loss in Peoria January 31st of last year. Not only is Bradley usually an excellent bet at home, going 35-16-3 in their last 54 there, but also the favorite usually delivers in this series, going 12-5-1 over their last 18 meetings. In the end, Ruffin and company take advantage of a Blue Jays team that sputters on the road (60 ppg on 42% shooting), protecting their house, snapping their own two-game losing streak, and grabbing the cash in the process!
Take Bradley comfortably over Creighton as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Cleveland State- Sitting at 10-0 SU at home (6-4 ATS), I can understand why some bettors would side with Butler in this spot. However, if you've been following the Horizon this season, you know very well the Vikings are no pushover, having already beaten the Bulldogs outright in Cleveland 56-52 back on January 17th. I understand the revenge angle, I just don't agree with the margin, and here's why:
First of all, the Vikings defense is good enough to keep this game within the bloated number, allowing just 59 ppg over their last 5 games, including an impressive 71-58 outright win at Valparaiso in their last one. In fact, since going on their 5-game losing streak, the Vikings have regrouped, winning 3 ina row SU (2-1 ATS)!
Second, the Vikings have already proven they match up well with the Bulldogs, using Bullock, Jackson, and Brown against the perimeter-oriented attack of Butler. Brown especially, who may not have contributed much in the boxscore, going 0 for 6 in 30 minutes, but his defense was critical and will be once again today. The key to slowing down Butler is limiting either of their talented guard, Graves or Green, and in their last meeting both struggled, going a combined 6 for 22, thanks in large part to the defense applied by Cleveland State's backcourt.
Finally, while I do believe the Bulldogs will get their revenge here, I'm simply not convinced they can cover the number. Butler has had poor results this season covering double-digit spreads, including going 2-6-1 ATS over their last 9 games in that spot. Bulldogs are the better team, but they come into this game overvalued, especially considering the Vikings recent 3-game win streak. Bulldogs win, but Vikings grab the cash today in Indianapolis.
Take Cleveland State plus the points over Butler in this Horizon League match up.
3. Akron- Sometimes revenge just isn't enough, and that couldn't be more true in this afternoon's Akron/Bowling Green match up. Despite Akron taking Bowling Green behind the woodshed 80-44 in their last meeting, I just don't believe the Falcons have enough firepower to get their payback this afternoon at home.
Granted, we see an expected dip in the Zips offense when they travel, but even at home, the Falcons offense is below average at best, dropping in just 66 ppg on 44% shooting (30% from 3-point). Of course, the Falcons were able to beat conference doormat Toledo at home in their last home game, but when faced with even average competition, like Central Michigan for example, they lost 81-77 in OT. Akron is one of the better teams in the MAC, and they'll prove it once again this afternoon. (Note the Zips are 7-3 ATS over their last 10 road games!)
Can't talk about Akron without mentioning the absence of F Jerimiah Wood, who's targetting March for a comeback. While losing your best player is never an easy transition to make, the Zips have shown some resiliancy in his absence, winning and covering at Ball State one game after losing him. Granted, I make no excuses for the Zips home loss to Northern Illinois... All I can say is they were throughly embarassed at home and get a perfect oppurtunity for redemption against a team they beat by 36 earlier this season in today's match up.
Bottom line, despite the absence of Wood, I still believe the Zips have more than enough firepower to get the road win and cover this afternoon at Bowling Green. Both defenses are about even, but the Falcons inability to get it done on the offensive end dooms them once again today. Zips bevy of shooters can and will get it done on the highway this afternoon!
Take Akron comfortably over Bowling Green in afternoon MAC action.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
50 DIMER - TEXAS LONGHORNS.....10 DIMERS - MARYLAND, ARIZONA, & UAB
50 DIMER - TEXAS LONGHORNS
What a steal! To get the Longhorns at this near pick price is an absolute gift!
Texas is rolling right now, as Rick Barnes' team comes in having won and covered 4 in a row. The 'Horns have also been a winner in 7 of their last 8 games, and they did win and cover an earlier season home date against the Bears as they upped their series winning streak to the last 10 games.
The Longhorns have covered in 6 of their last 8 visits to Baylor, and they are catching the Bears at the right time, as it looks like Baylor's hot start has come crashing down on them, as the Bears have dropped their last pair, and 4 of 5 both straight up and against the spread. Baylor is also a money-burning 1-5 against the spread at home this season.
I get the feeling the Longhorns are peaking at the right time, while the Bears may be headed for the big fall down the stretch. Either way, a near pick price is way too good to pass up on the 'Horns late day today.
Roll with Texas to complete the season series sweep!
10 DIMER - MARYLAND TERRAPINS
I know Maryland lost by double digits at Duke earlier this week, but prior to that setback Gary Williams' team had quietly won 4 in a row, and 6 of 7. The Terps are making noise at the right time, and will have no trouble dumping a Florida State team that has not been able to get its act together. The Seminoles have dropped 7 of their last 9 straight up, but more importantly State has failed the spread in 9 of their last 10, and 13 of their last 15!
This will be the first meeting of the year between the schools, and the home team comes into this one on an 8-1 spread run, while the favorite has covered in 13 of the last 16 series meetings. Last I checked, Maryland was both the home team, and the favorite!
Fear the Turtle today!!!!
10 DIMER - ARIZONA WILDCATS
I watched all of Stanford's Thursday night loss at Arizona State, and I came away thinking that the Cardinal are one overrated team!
Yes, they do have size, but their marginal guard play won't hurt the Wildcats in this spot this afternoon, and the fact Arizona has started to pick things back up after their 2 game slide has me liking the Wildcats today at home.
'Zona has won 5 of 7, and has covered in 7 of 9 coming into this showdown. The 'Cats have also played the Cardinal quite tough as they nearly upset Stanford in the middle of January in Palo Alto in an underdog cover, snapping a 6-game series winning streak.
Priced at near a pick, I am going against the Cardinal until I see further evidence they can handle a team like Arizona on the road. After watching them at Arizona State, I don't think they can.
10 DIMER - UAB BLAZERS
Is it time for Memphis to take their 1st loss of the season?
I don't know if they will drop this one outright, but UAB is as good a test on the conference road as they are going to get, as the Blazers are 11-0 straight up at home, and 5-1-1 against the math in those home games.
Memphis has been asked to cover some pretty tall numbers of late, as Calipari's team is on a money-burning 2-4 spread run as they come to UAB tonight.
The Tigers have been tough on the Blazers as they are riding a 3-game seires winning streak, and they have taken 7 of the last 9 series tilts both straight up, and against the spread.
With triple revenge on their side, a perfect home court record on their side, and the fact they are going against the undefeated #1 team in the land on their side, the G-Man says to take the points as the Blazers give the Tigers a major scare.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
30 Dime –
Take Boise State as the home chalk tonight over Fresno State.
Fresno has a short roster and this is their 2nd game in 48 hours, not to mention they are moving up into the mountain altitude, which will make it even tougher on them tonight.
Boise State has covered the last three meetings and is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 with Fresno.
The Broncos have the size advantage here which should allow them to control the boards, giving them the opportunity at second-chance points on the offensive end and limiting the Bulldogs to one-and-done possessions on the other.
Fresno has been on a downslide, losing four of its last five and going 0-5 ATS during that span.
Boise State plays a fast tempo game which will wear down the Bulldogs in the second half. The Broncos also shoot well from the floor, so the potential to stretch the lead is there.
Lay the points with Boise State as they grab the home win and cover.
20 Dime –
Take the points with Michigan State tonight on the road versus Indiana.
The Hoosiers have far too many distractions here with the controversy surrounding coach Kelvin Sampson. Now they have to find a way to focus as the 10th-ranked Spartans come to town.
Indiana is just 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 Big Ten games. The Hoosiers are also just 1-7 ATS following a SU loss and 1-4-1 ATS at home.
Michigan State has struggled a bit recently, but with all the distractions Indiana is having to deal with the Spartans should be able to right the ship, even though they are on the road.
Indiana hasn’t proved itself against any quality opponents this year, and I don’t see them doing so tonight.
Take the points with the Spartans as they stay within the number on the road.
10 Dime –
Lay the points with Louisville today when they visit Providence.
The Cardinals are red hot right now, having won and covered their last four games. They boast the nation’s fifth-ranked shooting defense and they are going against a slumping Friars squad.
Providence is 1-6 SU in its last seven and has been held to 65 points or less four times during that stretch.
Louisville is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 road games, including 6-1-1 this year.
Providence is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 at home against teams with a winning record.
Take the Cardinals minus the number as they cruise to an easy road win and cover.
5 Dime –
Take Texas Tech as the small home chalk this afternoon over Oklahoma.
The Red Raiders may not have Bobby Knight anymore, but they remain a viable bet when playing at home.
Texas Tech is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games and 6-2 ATS in its last eight overall.
Oklahoma is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 conference games and 2-7 ATS in its last nine overall.
With center Longar Longar out for the season, the Sooners have a problem in the paint, as Blake Griffin has no serious help on either the offensive or defensive boards.
Take Texas Tech as the small home chalk as they grab the home win and cover.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
600-Unit Big 12 Big Play - TEXAS
A Texas-coached Rick Barnes team has not lost to Baylor in 21 tries and they aren't about to start today. Texas will step up and deliver a big win today, letting the Bears know they are still the little brothers in the Big 12 house.
The Longhorns have won four straight SU and ATS and seven of their last eight overall (5-3 ATS). They've won three of their last four on the highway and last time they were on the road they beat Iowa State 71-65 as 5 1/2-point favorites. They followed that win with a 72-69 home win over a Kansas team a lot of people thought was by far the class of the conference. Texas was 5 1/2-point 'dogs in that one.
Last time Texas faced Baylor was just two weeks ago when the 'Horns scored an 80-72 win as seven-point home favorites. And when this series has shifted to Waco, the 'Horns have gone 6-2 ATS in the Bears' building.
Baylor opened the season 16-2, but has since dropped four of five SU and ATS. They lost to Kansas 100-90 a week ago and then went to Oklahoma State on Wednesday and lost 93-83 as 1 1/2-point underdogs. The Bears are just 1-5 ATS in their last six at home and just having a rough time in the middle of the Big 12 schedule.
Let's go with the 21-game winning streak in this one as the 'Horns keep it up and get us a winning ticket.
200-Unit Big Ten Smart Play - MICHIGAN STATE
There's plenty of controversy surrounding this Indiana team now that Kelvin Sampson is being investigated by the NCAA and likely on his last legs with the Hoosiers program.
The question is how stable is this team now that their coach is in hot water? Are they going to care about team or is it a "me" first attitude with this team now that it looks like some sanctions might be coming their way?
The Hoosiers are just 3-3 SU (2-4 ATS) in their last six overall and just lost 68-66 at home to Wisconsin as 4 1/2-point favorites. They've lost two of their last three at home and will have a tough time with the Spartans in this one.
Both teams have struggled to cash tickets, with Indiana 1-7 ATS after a loss and 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 Big Ten games. Michigan State is 2-6 ATS in their last eight and 0-5 in their last five Saturdays.
Play the Spartans in this one. The impending sanctions coming Indiana's way is going to have a serious negative effect on the Hoosiers.
100-Unit Pac-10 Pushover - OREGON
Oregon had a nine-game winning streak going against Washington State until a month ago when the Cougars scored a 69-60 home win over the Ducks.
Even with the win, Oregon still got the cash as 9 1/2-point underdogs. Oregon has won five straight at home against Washington State (4-1 ATS) and the Ducks are an amazing 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings with the Cougars.
Tells us that Oregon has no problem with the slow-down style the Cougars bring to the game. Washington State is going to try to slow the tempo and Oregon has to be able to make them play faster than they want, catering to the Ducks guard-oriented squad.
Washington State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games while Oregon has won three of four (2-1-1 ATS) and the Ducks just destroyed Washington 71-58 as 6 1/2-point home favorites on Thursday.
The Ducks are tough at home, going 13-5-2 in their last 20 at home and they are also on runs of 12-5-1 ATS in Pac-10 play and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 Saturday games. Washington State is just 2-6 in their last eight conference games.
Oregon will get the scoring going tonight and deliver the win. We're looking for a 7-point Ducks win in this one.
100-Unit Pac-10 No-Brainer - ARIZONA
Arizona has won six of the last seven times they've seen Stanford and the one time the Wildcats didn't get the outright win, they covered back on Jan. 17, falling 56-52 as 5 1/2-point underdogs.
Arizona now gets the Cardinal in Tucson and already have a 6-3 ATS advantage in the last nine meetings and 4-1 in the last five.
Stanford had won seven straight before going to Arizona State on Thursday and falling 72-68 in OT and failing to get the win as three-point favorites. It is the second straight non-cover for the Cardinal after rattling off five straight ATS wins prior.
Arizona beat Cal 83-73 as 7 1/2-point favorites Thursday, improving to 6-2 ATS in their last eight Pac-10 matchups.
The Wildcats have a big team speed advantage and have enough athletic big people to frustrate the Lopez twins. Stanford relies on them for a lot and if the Wildcats can increase the speed of this game it will end up in their favor.
Play Arizona to get this one and deliver a big home win that keeps them in the hunt in the Pac 10