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Sunday Service Plays
Re: Sunday Service Plays
a-10 rd warrior (3 star)...........uri
nba bailout.....3 star...............wizards
fat man releases............ariz,ohio st
big sky goy...................north ariz
under the hat................ariz
3 star..........................s alabama
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Sunday College Opinions/Possible Best Bets
RICHMOND (-3 1/2) over St. Louis
St. Louis is coming off a heart-breaking last second loss to Xavier and the Billikens could have trouble getting off the mat for this game against a Richmond team that is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. The Spiders apply to a 33-8 ATS subset of a 73-31-3 ATS home momentum situation as long as they are not favored by more than 3 points. My ratings favor Richmond by 4 points using a standard home court edge, but St. Louis hasn’t been nearly as good on the road this season. The Billikens are just 1-6 straight up on the road with an average score of 47-65 and Richmond has won 5 of their last 6 home games despite being an underdog in 4 of those games. I make Spiders by 5 points a fair line after factoring in the additional home court edge that exists in this game. The situation only applies at -3 or less but I'll lean with Richmond at -4 or -3 1/2 and I’d take Richmond in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 3-Stars at -2 or less.
OHIO STATE (-2 1/2) over Indiana
Indiana is having a fine season, but the young Hoosiers have struggled against good teams – losing to Xavier, U Conn, and Wisconsin by an average of 11 points. Ohio State is not quite in that class, but the Hoosiers are better than any team Indiana has beaten this season (Minnesota is the best team that the Hoosiers have beaten). Ohio State’s only impressive win is a 13 point home win over Florida, but the Buckeyes were pretty impressive in losing close games at Michigan State and at Tennessee while covering in both games. My ratings using all games for both teams favor Ohio State by 2 ½ points but using only games versus quality opponents results in the Buckeyes by 5 ½ points. Ohio State is 62-4 straight up at home under coach Thad Matta and their only home loss this season was against highly ranked North Carolina. Indiana, meanwhile, is just 6-11 ATS under coach Kelvin Sampson after a game in which they won and covered and the Hoosiers would apply to a negative 28-81-3 ATS road letdown situation if the line drops to 2 points or less. I’ll lean with Ohio State at -3 or -2 ½ and I’d take Ohio State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 or less and for 3-Stars at -1 or better.
Siena (+5) over RIDER
Siena is now 19-4 ATS in conference road games under coach Fran McCaffery after beating Marist in overtime on Friday night. Siena isn’t as good in that role after a win (10-4 ATS) as they have been after a loss (8-0 ATS), but my ratings favor Rider by only 3 points and I’ll lean with Siena at +4 or more and I’ll take Siena in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 or more.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Game: UCLA vs. Washington Game Time: 2/10/2008 4:30:00 PM Prediction: Washington Reason: I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON. I feel that recent results have caused this line to be too high. The Bruins come in on a roll while the Huskies have been struggling, having lost four straight. While those results have given us some additional "line value" they should also ensure that the Huskies deliver a highly motivated effort, as they desperately want to avoid a fifth straight loss before taking to the road. Additionally, coming off a win over a ranked team in a hostile environment, the Bruins may be patting themselves on the back a bit. Despite coming up short vs. USC last time out, the Huskies are remain a healthy 23-14 ATS over the past decade after having lost their previous three games. The Huskies managed a "cover" at UCLA last month. They've also defeated the Bruins three straight times on this floor. Jon Brockman, the Pac-10's leading rebounder, gives the Huskies a big body to go up against Kevin Love, an advantage that many other teams don't have. Washington Coach Lorenzo Romar believes that his team will remain optimistic stating: "They'll come back ... and I'm sure they'll be feeling upbeat..." I agree with Romar and I look for the Huskies to deliver their best effort this afternoon, conintuing their homecourt success in this series and improving to 14-5 ATS the last 19 times that they were underdogs of greater than eight points. *Main Event
Game: Rhode Island vs. Fordham Game Time: 2/10/2008 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Fordham Reason: I'm taking the points with FORDHAM. I feel that homecourt will be the difference in this afternoon's "battle of the Rams." Rhode Island has been excellent at home. In fact, the Rams have gone 11-0 at home to go along with a 5-0 record at neutral sites. However, they've been ordinary on the road. In fact, Thursday's loss at Massachusetts brought Rhode Island to just 3-4 in seven road games. Off that difficult defeat and with another "big" game at Temple on deck, I feel that the high-powered Rhode Island offense may have some trouble getting "woken up" for today's early tipoff. Of course, that's also because Fordham plays at a slower tempo and only allows 62 points per game at home. It's true that the (Fordham) Rams haven't had a great year. However, they're a very experienced team and they have won two of their last three games here, including a victory vs. a solid Duquesne squad two home games ago. Note that Duquesne was laying -2.5 and the line was a pick'em against Temple the following game. This afternoon, against a team of similar talent, we're getting +4 (or better) which I feel offers excellent value. These teams face each other three times last season. Fordham won one of those games by nine. The other two games were decided by just five combined points. In fact, other than the nine-point Fordham victory, five straight series meetings have been decided by five points or less. This is Fordham's third 3-game losing streak of the season. Each of the previous two times, the Rams have responded with a win and cover in "Game #4." I expect more of the same this afternoon. *A-10 GOW
Game: San Antonio Spurs vs. Boston Celtics Game Time: 2/10/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Spurs/Celtics UNDER the number. At first glance, this number seems pretty low. However, when we consider that these are two of the best defenses in the entire league, it's actually not so low at all. Indeed, the Celtics have allowed just 86.8 points per game on this floor for the season while the Spurs have allowed an average of just 85.6 over their past five games. The Spurs saw Friday's game vs. the Knicks finish above the number. That was a tough beat for under bettors though as the game had only 121 points after three quarters had been played. Even after a high-scoring fourth quarter, the final score still would have fallen below the number if the game didn't go into overtime. That result notwithstanding, the Spurs have still seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 11-2 their last 13 games. For the season, they've seen the UNDER go 31-16-1 overall. That includes a 15-8 mark on the road and an 8-2 mark when listed as underdogs. The Celtics showed that they were capable of playing strong defense without Garnett in the lineup last time out, holding Minnesota to just 86 points. That game stayed comfortably below the number. For the season, they've seen the UNDER go 14-10-1 at home. Although there won't be any "looking ahead," with both teams playing tomorrow, it's worth noting that the Spurs have seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times they played the front-end of back to back games while the Celtics have seen the UNDER go 10-6 their last 16 in that situation. Both teams are hopiong that today's game will be a possible "Finals Preview." With that being the case, I expect both teams to be working their hardest at the defensive end of the floor, as they look to "prove their toughness" and gain a "psychological edge" over the other. Looking at the recent series history and we find that the UNDER has gone a perfect 4-0 the last four times these teams faced each other. Look for this afternoon's final combined score to be lower-scoring than expected once again. *Non-Conference TOW
Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Miami Heat Game Time: 2/10/2008 3:35:00 PM Prediction: Miami Heat Reason: I'm taking the points with MIAMI. "Today is really about change, it's about moving on, it's about getting on with what's going to happen in the Miami Heat's future." This was a quote from Pat Riley about the significance of today's game. While we can't expect miracles from Marion or Banks, both expected to make their debut today, I do think that the entire franchise will be inspired by the fact that the Shaq situation has been dealt with and that his replacements are now officially part of the team. It's obviously been a very dismal season, however, the Heat have managed to play well against teams from the Pacific. In fact, the last time they faced an opponent from the Pacific division was back on 12/10 and they won outright, as +12.5 dogs, at Phoenix. That brought them to 4-0 ATS for the season against teams from the Pacific and 7-0 ATS their last seven. Looking back a little furthr and we find the Heat with a highly profitable 12-2 ATS mark in 14 games against Pacific division teams since the beginning of the 2006 season. The Lakers, who have lost three straight games here at Miami, did have yesterday off to catch their breath. However, they're still playing their seventh game in the past 11 days, all of them coming in a different city. With a game at Charlotte on deck tomorrow, it's worth noting that the Lakers are a money-burning 7-13 ATS (9-11 SU) the last 20 times they played the front end of back-to-back games. Playing well against the Lakers on national TV is the perfect way for the Heat to begin the "new era." Look for them to do just that, continuing their success against Pacific division teams and improving to 9-3-1 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as underdogs of greater than eight points. *TV Game of the Month