Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Smart Money

ALABAMA


Alatex

15* Bradley +6


Bob Akmens CBB Totals

6* Ark St over 144-
3* Wyoming over 139-
3* Cal irv under130-

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR):

#527 VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH -7 vs DELAWARE

Play: #527 VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH -7 (CBB)
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: #527 VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH -7 (CBB)


LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): GEORGIA vs #550 FLORIDA

Play: #550 FLORIDA -12 (CBB)
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: #550 FLORIDA -12 (CBB)


LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): #555 USC vs WASHINGTON STATE

Play: #555 USC +6 (CBB)
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: #555 USC +6 (CBB)

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Akmen

NHL

Vancouver Over 5
San Jose -160


Gavazzi/PPP

5* Ohio U, Bradley
4* San Diego St, Kansas St

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Special K

20* Super K Louisville

20* G Tech

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Keith Martin Sports

Utah U. Over 111.0
Usc Over 119.5
Boise State Under 163.5

Houston U. Pick'em FREE PLAY

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BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL

SOUTH CAROLINA
Game: Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina Game Time: 2/9/2008 5:00:00 PM Prediction: South Carolina Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. This is a huge game for the Gamecocks. With a victory, they can take over sole possession of fourth place in the SEC's Eastern Division and put worries about falling to the cellar behind them. South Carolina brings some positive momentum into this afternoon's game. Two games ago, the Gamecocks handled Georgia here at home. They followed that up by going on the road and knocking off #24 Mississippi. That game was a full week ago though and the lengthy gap between games should help them in avoiding an emotional letdown from the big victory. In addition to playing for positioning within the conference, the Gamecocks will be playing with "revenge" as they were beaten by seven points at Vanderbilt last month. The Commodores were a perfect 15-0 at the time (16-0 after the win) but the Gamecocks gave them all they could handle. Indeed, the teams swapped the lead eight times with four ties in the second half alone. The Gamecocks also harassed Vanderbilt into 17 turnovers, 10 of those on steals. Note that South Carolina, which should have gained some confidence from playing the Commodores so tough on their home floor, covered the spread in that game and is now 13-6-1 ATS the last 20 meetings in this series. The Gamecocks also haven't forgotten last year's game here as they scored 90 points but lost in overtime. It's worth mentioning that the Gamecocks have fared well against top tier teams during the second half of the season the last few years. In fact, the win at Mississippi brought them to 27-13 ATS the last 40 times that they faced a team with a winning record after at least 15 games of the season had been played. The Commodores, who come off a road win at Georgia on Wednesday, have not fared well over the years when coming off a conference victory. Indeed, they've gone a money-burning 24-49-1 ATS in that situation the past decade. Look for them to get caught looking ahead to Kentucky and Florida, falling to 1-5 ATS the last six times they were listed as underdogs.

IOWA STATE
Game: Texas vs. Iowa State Game Time: 2/9/2008 3:30:00 PM Prediction: Iowa State Reason: I'm taking the points with IOWA STATE. The majority of the betting public will be quick to back the nationally ranked favorite here. However, I feel that this will be an extremely tough spot for the Longhorns, as they're coming off a big road win at Oklahoma and have a huge "Big Monday" showdown with Kansas on deck. That's followed by a string of other big games, including Baylor and a "revenge" game against Texas A&M. In other words, if they're ever going to look past a game, this will likely be the one. Despite the win at Oklahoma, the Longhorns are a very ordinary 3-3 ATS on the road. Additionally, note that the Longhorns are 1-3 ATS as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range and that they're also just 5-9 ATS the last 14 times they played a road game on a Saturday, including outright losses the last two times in that situation. The Cyclones, 4-0 SU in four home games on a Saturday this season, lost vs. Texas A&M in their last game here. However, they'd won nine straight here before that, including solid wins against the likes of Missouri and Oklahoma State already in 2008. They got leading scorer Wesley Johnson back in their last game and that will provide a major boost to the offense. With a game under his belt and a few more days of recovery time since then, Johnson should quickly start resembling the player that scored 20 or more points in four straight games before his injury. Even if that doesn't prove to be the case, the Cyclones are also a team that can dominate defensively. In fact, they allow just 56.8 points per game on this floor. The Cyclones hoped to finish in the top half of the Big 12 this year. In order to have any realistic shot of doing so, they need to score the upset this afternoon. The Longhorns won here in 2006. However, they're still just 2-5 at Hilton Coliseum and they've never won consecutive games here. The Cyclones have long been a profitable team when facing quality opposition, going 118-90 ATS in lined games against teams with a winning record over the past decade. That includes an impressive 75-50 ATS (60%) mark when facing teams with a winning record after a minimum of 15 games had been played. Look for them to be at their best this afternoon, improving to 6-3-1 ATS the last 10 times that they were underdogs of eight points or less. *Big 12 GOY

WISCONSIN
Game: Purdue vs. Wisconsin Game Time: 2/9/2008 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Wisconsin Reason: I'm laying the points with WISCONSIN. I wasn't surprised when the Boilermakers upset the Badgers at Purdue a couple of weeks ago. In fact, I released Purdue as my Big 10 Game of the Year. With the full support of their boisterous home fans behind them, the young Boilermakers managed a 60-56 victory. Winning at home is an entirely different matter from winning at Wisconsin though! Indeed, the Boilermakers haven't won here since Feb. 7, 1996, losing eight straight games here during that stretch. Those eight losses weren't generally close either as they came by an average of 14.4 points per game. During that time period, the Boilermakers are just 48-74-3 ATS as underdogs, including a 1-4 ATS mark as road underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range. The Badgers are 15-10-1 ATS the last 26 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Overall, they've gone a profitable 83-63-5 ATS (57%) in home lined games since Purdue last beat them here. From a "SU" perspective, we find the Badgers at 104-6 at the Kohl Center under seventh-year coach Bo Ryan, including a 50-2 record in the Big Ten. Illinois is the only conference team to defeat Wisconsin on its home floor during that span. When the Badgers lost at Purdue, they didn't get their normal contribution from anyone except senior center Brian Butch. The Badgers manage more points per game at home though while the Boilermakers allow seven more per game on the road than they do at home. Getting some "payback" should be "extra important" here as the Badgers were on a 10-game winning streak prior to the loss at Purdue and that loss also represents the lone blemish on their 9-1 conference record. I expect the revenge-minded Badgers, who allow a mere 52.4 points per game on this floor, to deliver a highly focused team effort en route to a double-digit victory. *Revenge Game of the Month

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BEN BURNS
NBA

76ERS
Game: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game Time: 2/9/2008 7:35:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers Reason: I'm laying the points with PHILADELPHIA. The situation favors the 76ers here. While Philadelphia had last night off, the Clippers were busy scoring a hard-fought upset win at Toronto. In addition to the "back to back situation," they are also now playing their third game in the past four nights and their sixth different road game through the first nine nights of February. That's a pretty gruelling schedule, particularly for a team still dealing with serious injury issues. As Clippers coach Mike Dunleavy noted: "We've had a revolving door with our injuries, one to the next..." While the Clippers played hard last night, it's worth noting that they're already out of the playoff race. That makes it a little difficult when "digging deep" to find the motivation necessary to keep on fighting on road-weary legs. Note that the Clippers have just one win the last nine times that they played the second of back to back games. Most recently, they lost by 14 points at Cleveland. Despite last night's victory, the Clippers remain a poor 3-6 ATS their last nine games. Conversely, the 76ers are still in the playoff race in the East and are also playing their best right now, having recorded back to back victories and going 5-1 ATS their last six games overall. The 76ers lost by one point when the teams faced each other here on this exact day last season. However, the Clippers weren't playing the second of back to back games, they weren't yet out of the playoff race (win brought them to 25-25) and they got big contributions from both Livingston and Brand, neither whom will play this evening. Additionally, a closer look shows that the 76ers had won nine straight home series meetings before that, going a profitable 7-2 ATS. While the Clippers have lost six of seven Saturday games, the 76ers are 7-1 ATS when playing on a Saturday this season and an impressive 23-8-1 ATS their past 32. They come off a dominant 17 point win over Miami last time out, allowing only 84 points. That's worth noting as we find them at 5-2-1 ATS after allowing 85 points or less this season and 15-8-2 ATS in that situation the past few seasons. Look for the 76'ers to be both the hungrier and fresher team, avenging last year's loss and resuming their homecourt dominance in this series. *Personal Favorite

UNDER hornets/grizzlies
Game: Memphis Grizzlies vs. New Orleans Hornets Game Time: 2/9/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Hornets and Grizzlies to finish UNDER the number. Its true that these teams have played some pretty high-scoring games against each other already this season. However, the dynamics have changed for tonight's matchup and I'm expecting a much different result. I played on the Grizzlies to finish below the number yesterday. At the time I said: "The Grizzlies are going through an adjustment period right now, getting used to some new faces in the lineup along with the departure of Gasol and Swift. Consequently, they've failed to reach triple-digits in either of their two games without Gasol. Note that those two games came at home, where the Grizzlies score seven more points per game than they do on the road. Additionally, note that they came against a pair of defenses which allow an average of 103.3 (Bucks) and 103.9 (Jazz) points per game on the road." The Grizzlies would go to finish with a mere 81 points. They did play solid defense though, holding the Mavs to just 92. Not surprisingly, the final score would finish UNDER the number by more than 25 points. Playing the second of back to back road games, I expect the Grizzlies to once again have some trouble scoring points. As mentioned, they don't score nearly as many points on the road as they do at home. That's led to the UNDER going 15-6-1 in their 22 road games. Additionally, they've seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times that they played a road game after having played the previous day. The Hornets come off a very high-scoring (132-130) game. However, that was vs. one of the best offenses in the league (Phoenix) and 40 of those points came in the two overtime sessions. Its also worth noting that the Hornets have seen the UNDER go 7-3 after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game and 11-4-1 after scoring 105 or more. They've faced four quality teams (Suns, Warriors, Kings, Jazz) their last four times out and they've given up a lot of points. They'll be happy to "step down in class" and face an offense which is struggling. I expect them to make the most of it by playing well defensively and for the final combined score to fall beneath the generous number. *Blue Chip

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BEN BURNS
HOCKEY

CALGARY

Game: Edmonton Oilers vs. Calgary Flames Game Time: 2/9/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Calgary Flames Reason: I'm laying the price with CALGARY. The Oilers "held serve" on home ice when these teams faced each other at Edmonton last Monday. Despite that result, the Flames have the better record and I feel that they're the stronger team. They'll be highly motivated to avoid getting swept by their provincial rivals and I expect an extremely focused effort. Tonight's over/under line is listed at 5o35 or 5o40. Its interesting to note that the Oilers are just 10-18 the past few seasons when playing a road game with an over/under line of five or less. During the same stretch, the Flames were a healthy 35-14 (+10.3) when playing a home game with an over/under line of five or less. At first glance this price does seem pretty steep and it's normally a bit out of my price range. However, when we consider that the Flames are 9-3 with one tie the last 13 times they were a host in this series and that they were laying anywhere from -190 up to as high as -390 in the last five of those games, today's price seems considerably more reasonable. Look for the Flames to get back on track, avenge last week's loss and earn an important two points against their most hated rivals. *Big Chalk Game of the Month

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

PowerPlaywins

Notre Dame -5.5

Kentucky -5

Kansas St. -10

Golden State over 224

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CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS

CBB:
MARQUETTE/NOTRE DAME OVER 148.5 (POD)
GEORGETOWN +3 COMP

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

LT Profits

Virginia +4.0 

Both the Virginia Cavaliers and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are having disappointing seasons in the ACC, but in a game we rate a toss up, the value lies with the Cavaliers getting points here.

Besides, Virginia will be anxious to erase the memory of Thursday’s embarrassing 31-point home loss to Clemson, so we look for a more inspired effort from them today. While Clemson is one of the better teams in the conference, Wake Forest represents a drop in class for the Cavs here, and the Deacons lost their aura of invincibility at home when they had their 16-game home winning streak snapped by Georgia Tech on Wednesday.

Wake Forest actually has a losing 3-5 straight up record in conference play, and as dominant as they have been at home out of conference, they are just 2-2 against the spread in their conference home games while winning those contests by just +3.8 points per game. Even that figure is skewed by a 17-point win over Florida State, as Wake’s other two ACC home wins have both been by exactly two points.

We do not expect this game to be decided until the final buzzer, so getting these points with Virginia should prove valuable at the end.

CBB Free Pick: Virginia +4


Towson St. +5.5

The Towson State Tigers beat the Drexel Dragons by nine points at home last month, and we look for Towson to post another win here, this time as a road underdog.

Drexel is having a down year, and their 9-15 record does not tell the whole story. The Dragons are a woeful 4-15-2 against the spread overall, and they are just 2-10 straight up inside the Colonial Conference. Yes, both conference wins have come at home, but that still leaves Drexel at just 2-5 SU at home while losing those conference home games by an average of -4.3 points per game overall.

Now Towson State may be just 9-13 SU, but they actually have a winning 9-8 ATS mark overall, and while they are 5-7 in CAA play, that still puts them three games ahead of Drexel in the conference standings. They are also in good current form from a betting standpoint, going 3-1 ATS in their last four games following a covering loss at James Madison on Wednesday.

Add this all up, and Drexel looks like a very vulnerable favorite in this spot.

CBB Free Pick: Towson State +5.5

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Dr. Bob

Saturday Daytime College Opinion/Possible Best Bet
Cincinnati (-2 ½) over RUTGERS

Cincinnati has been an underrated team since pointguard Jamuel Warren entered the starting lineup on December 8th. Warren missed the first 6 games of the season and came of the bench in his debut, but the Bearcats have been 11-3-1 ATS with Warren in the starting lineup, including 8-0-1 ATS after a loss (Cincy is coming off a loss to Marquette). Rutgers is just 6-14 ATS this season and has been playing particularly bad recently and my ratings favor Cincinnati by 5 points. I’ll lean with the Bearcats at -3 or -2 ½ points and I’ll take Cincinnati in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 points or less.

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WAYNE ROOT

Chairman - Wisconsin
Millionaire - Colorado
Money Maker - Wash St MM GOY
No Limit - TCU
Insiders Circle - Rutgers
Billionaire - Virginia
Perfect Play - S. Carolina
Pinnacle - Louisville

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Sportbook Guru

10* Va Tech ML

Dayton ML


Tom Freese

No brainer Wisconsin

Blowout Wright State

Oddsmaker error SD State


Rocketman

3* Pacers
3* Penn
3* Evansville

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FERRINGO Full Card

1-Unit Play. Take #518 Notre Dame (-4) over Marquette
The Irish are hot and we’re going to the well. Marquette has been an awful road team, going 3-9 ATS and losing three of their last four by an average of 17 points. Marquette shoots just 28 percent from 3-point land on the road and the hot-shooting Irish will get some revenge for a 26-point bludgeoning they took in Wisconsin earlier this season.

5-Unit Play. Take #658 Louisville (-2.5) over Georgetown
Note: This is our Game of the Week. I know it's a little low for a GOTW play but we're trying to keep it tight these days. This play is fine at 3.0 but start to bump it down a half-Unit or a Unit if it gets to 3.5 or 4.0.

Louisville is an unranked team favored over a team in the Top Ten. That should be a huge red flag, and there is good reason for it. The Cardinals are starting to shoot a bit better, and as long as they don’t do something ridiculous as go 4-for-20 from 3-point land then they could blow this one open early. They simply play much better at home – offensively and defensively – and they should be able to neutralize Georgetown’s size with their own big men underneath. Louisville is on a nice 7-2-1 ATS rush and is 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 conference games.

3.5-Unit Play. Take #645 Baylor (+18) over Kansas
Note: I do endorse this play at +17 because I expect it to be much closer. I would drop half a Unit after that and it becomes a 1.5-Unit Play at +14. Don't play it at less than that, but I don't think the number will drop that much.

Arizona, Depaul, and Loyola are the only three teams to cover in Lawrence this year. The thing they have that all of the other clubs who came in and took their beatings is some competency in the backcourt. They are perimeter-oriented clubs. So is Baylor. And then some. The Bears have a backcourt that can compete with Kansas for 40 minutes, and if they can keep their big men out of foul trouble they will be in this game, not just covering but with a chance to steal one. Baylor is getting the same amount of points that Missouri was getting without their best player. And the Tigers didn’t cover because of one missed layup. Baylor is getting five points less than Iowa State, a team they are twice as good as. Baylor is 7-1 ATS on the road (and their one loss was a garbage loss) and 9-3 ATS as an underdog. They’ve covered their last four trips to Kansas and the road team is 6-0 ATS in the series.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #542 Ohio (-4.5) over Western Michigan
The home team is 9-1 ATS in this series, with Ohio going 5-0 ATS as a host, and Western Michigan has been a weak road team all season long. Ohio came out flat in its last game at Eastern Michigan and had its worst shooting performance of the year. I think they got that game out of their system and bounceback with a strong performance. Ohio is 45-19-1 ATS at home, 27-11 ATS against a team with a road record, and 38-15-1 ATS on Saturdays.

2-Unit Play. Take #565 George Mason (-1.5) over Old Dominion
This just isn’t the same Old Dominion team that we’re used to and they should be getting a lot more points than this. The Monarchs are just 2-3 SU at home, losing to teams that aren’t better than Mason. Oh, and George Mason beat ODU by 33 points just two weeks ago. They aren’t going to win this one by 30 but they are going to win. They are on a 6-1-1 ATS run and the Monarchs are 0-7 ATS as a dog. The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five at ODU. The only reason this play isn’t higher is because Mason pressed a lot against Drexel and may not have 100 percent to give. But Mason at 90 percent is still 10 points better than OD at 100.

ADDED SELECTIONS
2.5-Unit Play. Take #659 Purdue (+10) over Wisconsin
This line seems like it’s begging for Purdue money but we’re going to bite anyway. These two teams played a one-possession game at Purdue just last week and I think it’s because they are so evenly matched across the board. This Purdue team is tough. They will fight, they will scrap, and they have some athletes to get up and down the court and give the Badgers problems. Wisconsin has some serious free throw issues and they aren’t great at closing games out in the last 10 minutes. Purdue will hang around and make this a game and we should cash in the process.

2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #639 Bradley (+11) over Illinois State AND Take #592 Nevada (-10.5) over Hawaii
The Wolfpack have turned out to be a much better team than I gave them credit for while Hawaii has become worse than I thought they would be. Hawaii is just 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 road games and 2-5 ATS in Nevada. Nevada has been strong as a favorite in this range and should lay another whooping on a conference bottom-feeder today.

Daniel Ruffin is back and the Braves are rolling. They’ve won five straight and this is just enough points where even if they lose they could still cover. Illinois State has to be a little disappointed after blowing it’s game against Drake earlier this week and I think Bradley can capitalize. I just think this is a one- or two-possession game between two of the better teams in the MVC and six points is about twice as many as Bradley should be getting.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #620 UNC-Wilmington (-7) over James Madison
James Madison is in a free fall since losing Kyle Swanston last month. They've dropped eight of 10 straight up and have covered just once in their last 10 outings. UNC-Wilmington is a senior-laden group and I don't think they will have any sort of letdown today against a team they have beaten nine of 10 times.

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: AND Take #572 Miami, OH (-5.5) over Central Michigan AND
Take #613 Mississippi State (-0.5) over Auburn
Favorites and road teams have been getting it done lately in the SEC. Auburn is short-handed and just isn't very good, while I think Mississippi State may be the second or third best team in the conference. They are 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 games in this series and the favorite is 12-2-1 ATS in this rivalry. I think MSU pulls away late and posts a relatively comfortable victory.

Here come the Redhawks. They have won and covered in four straight and they own the Chippewas, having won 10 straight in this series. The last five wins have all come by double-digits including last year’s 20-point beatdown at CMU. Miami’s defense has been playing better and with Michael Bramos back in the fold their offense is flexing. CMU’s last four road losses have been by an average of nearly 15 points apiece and I think they could get tossed around again today.

1-Unit Play. Take #672 UC-Santa Barbara (-7.5) over UC-Irvine
UCSB is coming off a big win over Fullerton and now has a rivalry/revenge game against Irvine. Santa Barbara is one of the few teams in the conference that have the size to handle Darren Fells on the inside and they face an Anteaters club that is still without leading scorer Patrick Sanders. Irvine is 2-9 on the road and UCSB is 11-2 at home.

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Steve Merril

Handicapper: Steve Merril
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors (NBA) - 10:35 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 223.5/-105 Over Play Title:

Golden State enters off an embarrassing 114-108 home loss to Chicago on Thursday night. It was embarrassing because the Bulls played without their top three scorers Hinrich, Gordon, and Deng. Even without that firepower, the Warriors still allowed 114 points and things will not get any easier tonight as they’ll face a red-hot Sacramento offense that scored 117 points last night versus Utah.When these two teams met back in late November, Sacramento was without their floor leader Mike Bibby. He has since returned to the lineup and he will be able to get the Kings easy baskets tonight, which is something they did not get in the first meeting.Neither team shot well in that game as the Kings shot only 34.5% from the floor and 27.8% from 3-point land, while the Warriors shot just 41.6% from the floor and 25.8% from behind the arc. Had each team shot their normal percentages, my mathematical re-scoring model had the game totaling 229 points.The pace was extremely fast with a combined 176 shot attempts including an eye-popping 49 attempts from 3-point land, but the shots just weren’t falling. The pace will be lively tonight, and as long as the shots fall, this game should see plenty of points. Keep in mind the Over was 3-1 in the four meetings last year with an average score of 227½ points per game.
Play OVER the total.

Handicapper: Steve Merril
Boston College vs. Duke (NCAAB) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 19.5/-118 Boston College Play Title:

Sure, this one looks like a mismatch on paper, but the games aren’t played on paper and the Eagles have too much pedigree to take this many points in conference play. In fact, they have only done so (+18 dog or higher) two other times since 1997.
Despite their recent slump, Boston College is still one of the top 20 programs in college basketball over the last decade, and especially one of the nation’s best road teams as they have been 66-37 ATS in all road games the past eleven years under head coach Al Skinner. The Eagles are in a bit of a rebuilding year, but they will play this game with as much tenacity as any team has played all season, as they will view this as a chance to salvage their season.They were actually favored against the Blue Devils last season in Chestnut Hill, and after falling behind early, BC staged a huge comeback but came up just short. Despite five straight ACC losses, this actually is a fairly good matchup as they are defending the 3-point stripe at a 31% clip in conference play, and they shoot 71% from the free throw line on a lofty 24 attempts per game.Duke averages the most 3FG attempts in conference play, and their pressure defense puts teams on the line quite often (24 FTA per game). The Blue Devils also may be just a bit fat and happy off of their road upset win over rival North Carolina and also get caught looking ahead to a big game versus Maryland on deck.
Play BOSTON COLLEGE (+).

Handicapper: Steve Merril
Northern Iowa vs. Missouri State (NCAAB) - 8:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-105 Northern Iowa Play Title:

Northern Iowa played their worst game of the season on Wednesday night in their 74-50 loss at Creighton. Not only was it their worst loss of this season, but also their most lopsided loss in five years. “This (score) wouldn’t have crossed anybody’s mind,” said UNI head coach Ben Jacobson. “You can’t explain it,” senior Eric Coleman said. “We didn’t come out ready to play, and they did. They handled their business, and we didn’t. “We can’t let this one game take us back before we get hot again and win some more games,” Coleman said. “We’ve got to put this game out of our misery now and get back to winning.”The 74 points allowed by the Panthers was just the 3rd time this year an opponent scored more than 70 points. It won’t happen tonight, especially off the ugly loss, and that means Missouri State will have a hard time winning. In games in which they score less than 70 points, the Bears are only 3-9 straight-up and 1-11 against the spread this year. This team is a mess having lost 4 straight and 6 consecutive against the spread and the Bears fit a negative 17-48 ATS situation which plays against favorites that are on a 6+ game ATS losing streak.Northern Iowa is 6-2 ATS on the road, including 4-1 as a road underdog. UNI won the earlier meeting 70-55 this season, while holding Missouri State to just 31.1% (19-61) from the floor, and they should do the same here as they are the much better team. With the underdog and road team 8-2 against the spread over the last 10 meetings, we’ll grab the points.
Play NORTHERN IOWA (+).

Handicapper: Steve Merril
Northwestern vs. Michigan State (NCAAB) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 19/-112 Northwestern Play Title:

Northwestern was an easy Best Bet winner for us last Sunday as a 19-point road underdog at Indiana, and this game tonight is a very similar situation.
Northwestern plays a slow-down, half-court style that should allow the Wildcats to keep the game close and stay within this large pointspread. Northwestern has an efficient offense that shoots 45.6% FG and averages 17 assists per game with only 11 turnovers. This is a good indicator for big underdogs and Northwestern fits a solid 42-15 ATS situation based on that premise.Northwestern head coach Bill Carmody is a solid 30-15 ATS in all February games the past seven season and his Wildcats will be looking to revenge a 78-62 loss two weeks ago. Michigan State shot 60% FG, 61% 3-pt, and 90% FT in that game and still won by just 16 points. It will be nearly impossible for the Spartans to shoot any better tonight, which will make it very difficult for them to win by 19 points or more.
Play NORTHWESTERN (+).

Handicapper: Steve Merril
Bradley vs. Illinois State (NCAAB) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 6/-109 Bradley Play Title:

The first “War on 74” of 2008 went to Bradley in upset fashion two weeks ago as the Braves pulled out a 1 point thriller which jump started them to a 5-0 SU/ATS run in conference play. On the surface, it would appear tonight’s line has not been adjusted enough as Illinois State was a 2-point road favorite in the first meeting and is now laying just 6 points at home. Keep in mind that it was not known if Bradley’s best player, point guard Daniel Ruffin, was making his return to the lineup that night after missing seven games with an injury.Ruffin is college basketball’s only 1,000 point/500 assist man, and he gave his team a tremendous emotional lift that night, and has been playing at a high level since his return. He is the single player most valuable to his team in the MVC, and is probably worth about 3.5-4 pts in line value. His replacement, freshman Sam Maniscalco matured as a point guard while filling in for Ruffin, and along with sharpshooter Jeremy Crouch, this is the Missouri Valley’s best backcourt.

Illinois State is right up there with the Braves battling for the title of 2nd best in the MVC behind Drake, but in all reality these two teams are very close, and with the Redbirds’ poor free throw shooting (59%) in conference play, along with the steady floor play of Ruffin and Bradley’s 41% three-point shooting, I just can't see them shaking the Braves here. Bradley takes this to the wire and an outright win would not be a surprise as the Braves are a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS in the past six head-to-head meetings versus the Redbirds.
Play BRADLEY (+).

Handicapper: Steve Merril
Colorado State vs. UNLV (NCAAB) - 6:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 20/-105 Colorado State Play Title:

It is rare to get this big of an underdog that actually possesses the better shooting offense, but that is the case today with Colorado State. The Rams are averaging 44.6% FG this season (versus opponents that allow just 43.6%), while UNLV shoots just 42.0% this season (versus opponents that allow 43.4%). CSU also holds the edge from three-point range as they average 34.5%, while UNLV hits just 32.9%.
Colorado State is coming off an embarrassing 40-point loss at New Mexico on Tuesday, but that defeat has actually created line value as my power ratings favor UNLV by just 18 points today. Colorado State also qualifies in a solid 53-22 ATS big underdog revenge situation which plays on huge underdogs that are coming off back-to-back double-digit SU losses. UNLV already beat Colorado State this season, 65-62, and the Runnin’ Rebels might get caught looking ahead to their big revenge game on deck versus Air Force.
Play COLORADO STATE (+).

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GAMEDAY

4* Florida.
3*'s on Notre Dame and Pacific.
2*'s on Miami-Florida, NC State, Louisville


Chicago Sports Connection‏

Deleware +7
Wake Forest -4
Bradley +6


Will Cover

5* Lville


Red Dog

5* Ohio U


Kelso

50* South Florida

Sports Unlimited

10* Hofstra
7* Arkansas St.

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WILL SYKES COMP

SACRAMENTO vs GS WARRIORS

SYKE-O-ANALYSIS: Warriors are one of the best bounce back teams in the NBA. They've only lost two in a row once this season with Steven Jackson in the line up. The Warriors had a horrible game two nights ago against the Bulls, where they allowed 5 point average scoring players score 20 points that game, and to lose at home on Webbers' debut against one of the worst scoring team in the NBA with out 4 of their key players, was pretty ugly. You better believe Don Nelson was pissed after that game and has something in store for the Kings tonight. The Kings played a tough game on the road last night against the Utah Jazz, the Kings are a mediocre 5-5 ATS on back to back games. The Kings are also 4-2 ATS after more than a 3 game home stand then heading on the road, and those two games that they won ATS was against the New York Knicks and the Nuggets (where they were 14 point dogs). We keep it simple again tonight as we get back in the groove of things and grade this as a 1* play. So don't get psyched by those oddsmakers in thinking that the Kings are a great road team when the numbers show that they're 11-11 ATS on the road. Just stick with Sykes and you won't be psyched.

WARRIORS -7

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Dennis Hill

South Fla +6 1/2
Duquesne-3 1/2
Miami-Fla+4 1/2


Philly-Connections

James Madison+8.5

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Wunderdog COMP

Game: Sacramento at Golden State
Pick: Game Total OVER 224.5 -110

Golden State really has the offense cranking, producing over 100 on 13-straight home games, while averaging 113 points per game at home. They have played nine OVERS in their last 10 games, and in those nine OVERS, they have toppled the posted total by 10.5 ppg. Sacramento has played 11 of their last 15 over the total. Their recent 11-5 stretch has been due to playing more up-tempo, as they went from a team averaging under 100 points a game to one scoring 107 in these last 16. The pace has also shown up on the defensive end as they have allowed 106 ppg on the defensive end. We see a defenseless game with two teams wanting to run and shoot, so we like the OVER here

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