Thursday Service Plays

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Black Widow Sports

1* on Wisconsin Green Bay -2

Wisconsin-Green Bay is 8-1 at home this season and catch Valparaiso in a great spot Thursday.  Valpo is coming off their heartbreaking loss to Butler and it will be very tough for this team to put the same effort into this game as they did against the Bulldogs.  Valpo is getting outscored in road games this season.  Wisconsin-Green Bay is 15-3 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.  They always have had a knack for winning the close-call games.  With only 1 loss all season at home, WGB will not be falling to Valpo tonight.  Take Wisconsin-Green Bay and lay the points.

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Wunderdog

Game: Dallas at Minnesota
Pick: Game Total OVER 5 -125

Dallas is 13-10 OVER on the road. Compared to playing at home, their defense drops off while their offense barely takes a hit. Minnesota plays very god defense at home but they can score too. The Stars are 12-4 OVER vs. winning teams this season and 11-3 OVER vs. teams with starting goalies that save 91.5%+ of shots against. This one should make it to 6 or higher.

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Wunderdog

Game: Xavier at Saint Louis (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Xavier -8 (-110)

Xavier has won four in a row and sits at 18-4 overall and 6-1 in league play. They have earned their No. 13 ranking and will bring it tonight in Saint Louis. They aren't done with their statement. The Musketeers lead the Atlantic Ten in scoring margin (+16), rebounding margin (+6.8)field goal percentage, free throw percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio. They can beat you in many ways as they have six players averaging double digits in scoring. Saint Louis gets just 62.3 points per game here at home. They have a slight defensive edge but not by much. Xavier has covered eight of ten against winning teams this season and will make it nine of eleven tonight.

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Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Golden State -13

The Bulls are banged up.  Gordon , Deng, and Hinrich all missed Wednesday's game against Portland.  With other guys stepping in and playing more minutes than normal, they will really be feeling the effects tonight when they visit the run and gun Warriors.  Golden State is 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 at home versus Chicago.  This is the Bulls 4th game in 6 days on the road.  Judging by this line, oddsmakers are confident in a blowout and we are too.  Lay the points.

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FERRINGO

2-Unit Play. Take Clemson (-1.5) over Virginia
The road team is 7-3 ATS in this series. Virginia is 1-7 over its last eight games while Clemson continues its steady play.

2-Unit Play. Take Cleveland State (-3.5) over Wright State
The Vikings have fallen hard and fast, but after four tough road games they are back home. That should provide them the boost that they need as they take down Wright State, a club that has struggled a bit on the road. Wright just played against a D-II school. And generally teams don’t play as well in their next game after playing a scrub team this late in the year.

2-Unit Play. Take Wisconsin-Green Bay (-2) over Valparaiso
I think the loss to Butler has some lingering effects. Green Bay lost at Valpo earlier in the season and I think they get the better of the matchup here. Valpo is in a 2-5-2 ATS slide.

2-Unit Play. Take Northern Arizona (-5) over Portland State
Portland State rolled over NAU earlier in the season but now the Jacks get some revenge. They’re tough at home and while this one may not be a blowout I think they pull away late and earn a tie for first place in the conference.

1.5-Unit Play. Take Indiana (-1.5) over Illinois
Here’s my square play of the day. Indiana is just better than Illinois, who is a bottom feeder. There are clearly two tiers in the Big 10 and you might as well blindly bet any of the top four or five teams against any of the lower level schools. Eric Gordon is going to want to put on a show.

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS

2-Unit Play. #511 Take Clemson -1 over Virginia (7 pm)

The Tigers are the better team, and Virginia hasn't shown me enough at 1-6 in ACC play. Clemson has done well this year at 16-5, and its depth and team defensive pressure will be the difference here. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last ten meetings, and they'll come through in Charlottesville.

2-Unit Play. #524 Take Wisconsin Green Bay -1 over Valparaiso (8 pm)

After dropping a tough one at home to Butler on Tuesday, look for the Crusaders to have a hangover on the road. The Phoenix are 8-1 at home this season, while Valpo is just 4-5 on the road this season, and only 4-6 in their last ten games. Wisconsin Green Bay, behind all conference player Mike Schachtner, will cash at home in this Horizon match-up.

2-Unit Play. #537 Take Utah State +1 over Fresno State (10 pm)

The Aggies have really come on strong of late at 6-1 in WAC play. They are 16-6 on the year and have turned it up by winning nine of their last ten games overall. Conversely, Fresno State is just 3-6 in its last nine, and I think Utah State takes care of business away from home and remains the lone team atop the conference with just one loss

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DOCS

3 Unit Play. #510 Take Pittsburgh -3 over West Virginia
It continues to amaze me that the Mountaineers continue to get low number when playing good teams on the road. Pittsburgh is ranked 12th in the nation and is the only team to knock off Duke this season. The Panthers have won two of the last three meetings at the Peterson Events Center and will pull way late because they always win the games they are supposed to win.


3 Unit Play. #531 Take Indiana -1 ½ over Illinois 
On paper it makes no sense why the spread is this low. Illinois is the most disappointing team in the Big Ten and many are starting to wonder if Bruce Weber can get the job done with his own recruits. This is a water downed Big 10 this season yet the Illini sit at 2-8 in the conference and are just 6-5 when playing at Assembly Hall this season. The Illini have trouble scoring points and with Eric Gordon starting to get healthy, all signs point to a rout by the Hoosiers.


3 Unit Play. #536 Take Santa Barbara -3 over Fullerton
A key game in the Big West takes place when the Gauchos try and move up the standing. Santa Barbara already pounded Fullerton once this season scoring 87 points and winning by double-digits and we expect history to repeat itself of Thursday. James Powell will get it done again for SB and we collect big in the process.


3 Unit Play. #546 Take Nevada -14 over San Jose State
The Wolf Pack have won 10 of their last 11 in this series, but that one loss came this season and thus they will have revenge on their mind as well. Justin Graham is still out for the Spartans and they are just 2-6 in the WAC Standing. Nevada has won 15 of their last 16 games in Reno and need some victories against bottom feeder teams in order to improve their standing for the upcoming WAC tournament that they must win in order to be in the NCAA Tournament yet again.


3 Unit Play. #570 Take Northern Arizona -5 over Portland State
A low number with the Jacks playing @ the Skydome is usually a must play for this handicapper and tonight will be no different. They also have revenge on their mind as well, as the Vikings won the first meeting of the season between these two programs. NAU plays a run and gun style and are much more effective at home and thus they are able to cover big numbers.

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John Ryan 10* Pac 10 Goy: Ucla


Ben Burns NHL Pers. Fav Minnesota Wild -150

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Black Magic Sports

1 Unit on Murray State +1.5

There definitely has to be an underdog in this game, but it most certainly should not be Murray State tonight.  Murray State is 15-6 straight up against Eastern Kentucky since 1997.  They completely own this series and are clearly the better team once again in 2008.  Murray State has won 9 out of their last 10 games overall, their only loss coming in overtime on the road to a very good Austin Peay team.  Murray State is 22-8 ATS in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread since 1997.  Eastern Kentucky is 1-8 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.  Cash in with Murray State as the underdog.

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BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL

ST LOUIS
Game: Xavier vs. St. Louis Game Time: 2/7/2008 9:00:00 PM Prediction: St. Louis Reason: I'm taking the points with ST. LOUIS. The Musketeers are a solid and well-balanced team. However, they've been "nothing special" on the road, winning just three of their six true road games while going 2-4 ATS. The Musketeers, who have a huge weekend showdown with St. Joseph's on deck, have also struggled here at St. Louis, losing their last three games here. Last season, the Musketeers were listed as -4 point favorites when they traveled here but the Billikens won by a score of 76-65. The previous season, Xavier was laying -5 points but lost by 14, 61-47. The Billikens are playing excellent defense at home once again this season. In their last game, they held Massachussetts to just 59 points, en route to a 71-59 victory. That was no small feat when considering that the Minutemen entered that game averaging a whopping 86.5 points per game on the road. That win brought the Billikens to 9-3 here for the season with the three losses coming by an average of less than seven points. Naturally, coach Rick Majerus was pleased with his team's effort: "I was real proud of them. For the most part, we controlled the tempo of the game. It was a nice win for us." The Billikens have already beaten a nationally ranked team (Rhode Island was ranked 23 at the time) here this season. They did so by controlling (slowing) the tempo and playing great defense, eventually limiting the Rams to just 61 points. The Billikens wer 12-4 SU/ATS in February the past couple of seasons and are a highly profitable 51-23 ATS in the month of February over the past decade. I believe that they're under-valued again tonight. Look for them to slow down the Musketeers and improve to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. *TV GOW

WISCONSIN GREEN BAY
Game: Valparaiso vs. Wis-Green Bay Game Time: 2/7/2008 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Wis-Green Bay Reason: I'm playing on WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY. The Crusaders won and covered when they hosted the Phoenix last month. However, I expect the revenge-minded Phoenix to have the advantage tonight. In addition to playing on it's homecourt, Wisconsin-Green Bay, which has an impressive 7-2 record in games decided by eight or fewer points, has the schedule in it's favor. The Phoenix last played on Saturday, earning a road win at Detroit. Conversely, Valparaiso just played on Tuesday, suffering an extremely tough 3-point loss vs. Butler. That game, shown on ESPN2, was the first nationally televised game at Valparaiso's Athletics-Recreation Center since Purdue came to town in November 1997. There was a ton of hype and a huge crowd. The Crusaders really fought hard and I expect that they will have "left something on the court." In other words, I won't be surprised if they're a bit flat here. While they earned a "push" in the loss vs. Butler, the Crusaders are now an ugly 0-3-2 ATS their past five games. The Phoenix are 3-1 ATS the last four times they were attempting to avenge a road loss and 12-8 ATS their last 20 in that situation. They're also 4-1 SU/ATS the last five times that they were listed as a home favorite (or pick'em) of three points or less. For the season, they're 7-1 at home, bringing them to 29-10 their last 39 games here. This season, they've outscored opponents by nine points a game on this floor. Look for them to continue their strong homecourt play, earning an important victory and avenging last month's loss.

WASHINGTON STATE
Game: UCLA vs. Washington St. Game Time: 2/7/2008 10:30:00 PM Prediction: Washington St. Reason: I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON STATE. I believe this game means more to the Cougars and I expect them to be the hungrier team. For starters, they've lost two in a row and desperately need to avoid losing three in a row for the first time this season and first time since Tony Bennett became coach. Additionally, they'll have major "revenge" on their minds as the Bruins blew them out at UCLA last month. First place was on the line for that game and the Cougars were 14-0 at the time. Naturally, the Cougars would like nothing more than to avenge that defeat. In addition to having homecourt advantage, the Cougars won't have to deal with Bruins' forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, as he is out with a sprained left ankle. As UCLA coach Ben Howland noted: "He guards the best players in this league, night on and out. Losing him we lose a key guy at both ends of the floor." Howland also commented about what a hostile environment he expects to face: "It's a difficult place to play. There'll be a great crowd there." It's hard to find too many negative things to say about UCLA. The Bruins have been pretty ordinary against top defensive teams in the second half of the season the last few years though, going 9-10 ATS the last 19 times they faced a team which allows 64 points or less after 15 or more games have been played. Overall, the Bruins are just 35-41 ATS their last 76 lined games against teams which allow 64 points or less per game. They'll be facing one of the tougher unit's in the league here as the Cougars have allowed a mere 51.2 points per game on this floor. I expect the Cougars to deliver their very best effort tonight and for that to be enough to lead to the minor upset. *False Favorite GOM

BEN BURNS
HOCKEY

MINNESOTA
Game: Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild Game Time: 2/7/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Wild Reason: I'm laying the price with MINNESOTA. I played on the Wild when they hosted the Stars in early January. At the time, I noted that the Wild and their fans still get a little extra "fired up" when the Stars (formerly the Minnesota North Stars) come to town. Minnesota won that game 6-3. Note that the Wild also won the previous series meeting here, taking that contest by a score of 2-1. Yes, the Stars have been playing well recently and come in on a 4-game winning streak. They haven't been a good bet over the years when on a winning streak though. In fact, after having won three or more consecutive games, the Stars are a money-burning -10.4 net games vs. the moneyline the past few seasons and -29.9 since 1996. It's also worth noting that the Stars will be playing just their third isolated road game (1-game road trip) of the season. That has proven to be a difficult spot for them as they lost both the previous games by scores of 4-3 at Colorado and 5-1 at Nashville. The Wild, 5-2 the last seven times they hosted a team from the Pacific division, have been excellent at home the past few years. During that stretch, they've gone a solid 30-17 when playing a home game with an over/under line of five or less. While the Wild saw their 3-game winning streak snapped last time out, they still played very well. In fact, Coach Lemaire went so far as to say: "I thought we played our best game of the year. I'm really happy the way our players played. We played hard. We got a point." Veteran Brian Rolston had similar feelings: "I thought we took it to them for the majority of the game. We've got to take that out of it. We took a big step tonight..." Look for the Wild to build off that effort tonight, as they continue their strong play and cool off their "rivals" from the Pacific. *Personal Favorite

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Cash & Profit Experts

NBA
Cleveland +5

CBB
Washington St. +2.5

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VEGAS SPORTS PICS

Pittsburgh Panthers - 3 over West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia (16-6, 5-4) is 2-2 in Big East road games. Working through injuries No.21 Pittsburgh's (17-5, 5-4) record includes wins over (at) No.2 Duke 65-64 and No.6 Georgetown 69-60. The Panthers have handily won the last three meetings.

Rhode Island Rams + 3.5 over (at) Massachusetts Minutemen

UMass (14-7, 3-4) averaging a nation's sixth most 83.3 ppg is 1-3 last four games averaging 67.0 ppg in the three losses. Rhode Island (19-3, 5-2) in A-10 games ranks second in the 14 team league in scoring, fourth in scoring margin, and fifth in rebounding margin.

Indiana Hoosiers - 1.5 over (at) Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois (10-13, 2-8) has continued to underachieve going 2-9 last 11 games. No.13 Indiana (18-3, 7-1) starting the Big Ten's top two scorers is off to its best league start in six years. The Hoosiers look to snap a six game losing streak at Assembly Hall.

UCLA Bruins - 2 over (at) Washington State Cougars

No.17 Washington State (17-4, 5-4) has dropped its last two home games including a 69-64 loss to (4-4 Pac 10) Cal on 01/31. No.5 UCLA (20-2, 8-1) is 8-0 away from home. The Bruins leading the Pac 10 by one game have defeated the Cougars last seven meetings.

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ATS LOCK
6 Middle Tenn St -4
4 Wisc Gr Bay -2
3 Cal Santa Barb -3

ATS FINANCIAL
4 Fresno St. -1 1/2
4 Pitts -2 1/2
3 Denver -3 1/2

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LT Profits

Los Angeles Kings @ Detroit Red Wings u5.5 (115)

The Detroit Red Wings have the best record in the NHL, thanks to a defense that also leads the NHL allowing just 2.02 goals per game, and we look for that unit to key this Under vs. the Los Angeles Kings tonight.

The Under is now 6-1-2 in the last nine Detroit games overall, with the push coming in overtime in a 3-2 win at Minnesota on Tuesday. Dominik Hasek was in goal that game, but Chris Osgood is expected to get the call tonight. Osgood is an amazing 22-3-2 with a fantastic 1.84 GAA and a .927 save percentage. Moreover, he has been brilliant in his two starts vs. the Kings this season, allowing a grand total of one goal.

Now the Kings have been play better lately, but they are still averaging just 2.80 goals per game for the season, a figure that drops all the way down to 2.35 on the road. Throw in the fact that they have not scored more than two goals in any of their last four meetings with the Wings, and they should have trouble finding the net against Osgood tonight.

Since we don’t think that Detroit will go Over in this game by themselves, we look for a safe Under here.

NHL Free Pick: Free Pick: Kings, Wings Under 5.5 (+115)


St Louis +8.5 (-110)

The St. Louis Billikens have already had a couple of memorable meltdowns this season, but that has served to give us some nice value at home here vs. the Xavier Musketeers.

The Billikens received some national attention by scoring just 20 points in an entire game vs. George Washington, and they recently had another dismal 36-point effort vs. Dayton. In all fairness though, both of those efforts (or lack of) came on the road, and St. Louis actually has a winning record at 12-9 overall. Most importantly, they are a very good 9-3 straight up at home, with recent home wins over a couple of other conference heavyweights in Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

Now Xavier is 18-4 and nationally ranked, but they have played only six true road games so far, and they are an ordinary 3-3 both SU and against the spread in those games. Furthermore, the Musketeers have allowed exactly as many points on the road as they have scored (67.0 points per game).

Finally, St. Louis has upset Xavier outright in three of the last four head-to-head meetings, and we look for the Billikens to at the very least take this game down to the wire.

CBB Free Pick: St. Louis +8.5


Mike Rose

Golden State Warriors -13.0

The Bulls dropped a 100-97 decision in Portland late last night. The injury bug has taken a huge bite out of their roster of late as they were without the services of Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, and Kirk Hinrich. Thabo Sefalosha and Andres Nocioni led all Chicago scorers with 22 apiece, but it wasn’t enough to pull out the victory. Chicago has only managed four wins in their L/10 overall games, and their shoddy and inconsistent play has forced a majority of Bulls fans to change the channel whenever they’re on the tube.

As for the Warriors, they’re coming off a 127-96 beatdown of the Charlotte Bobcats back on February 1st, and they will have had six full days to rest up for this primetime affair. Warrior Backers take note: Golden state is 0-2 ATS this season with 3+ days of rest, and they’re being asked to cover a lofty number in this spot.

These teams met earlier this season in a wild game played in the Untied Center back on January 18th. Baron Davis dropped 40 points on the Bulls defense and Monta Ellis and Stephen Jackson combined for 47 as the Warriors picked up a 119-111 road win and cover.

Chicago is 19-26 ATS (42%) combined on the road against +.500 Western Conference opponents, while the Warriors are 13-27ATS (33%) at home vs. sub .500 Eastern Conference opponents. The home team is 10-2 ATS the L/12 meetings including Chicago’s loss at home a couple weeks ago, and the favorite has cashed tickets in 7 of the L/9 overall meetings. The Bulls have only managed one spread win against Golden state in their L/5 showdowns, and they’ve produced a goose egg in the bay going 0-5 ATS their L/5 visits.

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WAYNE ROOT

Chairman - West Virginia
Millionaire - Washington
Money Maker - Illinois
No Limit - Wash St
Insiders Circle - Virginia

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Michael Cannon

20 Dime –

PITT

Take Pitt as the small home chalk tonight over West Virginia.

Pitt has held the upper hand in the basketball version of “The Backyard Brawl”, winning 9 of the last 12, including three in a row all by double digits.

The Panthers are also 6-1 in their last seven home games against the Mountaineers.

West Virginia hasn’t completely ditched the 3-point assault that former coach John Beilein used. Bob Huggins is known for having tough, athletic teams but he has adapted his coaching style to the players that Beilein left behind.

That’s not going to help him tonight against a physical Pitt team.

The Panthers will control the paint and it wouldn’t surprise me if freshman DeJuan Blair has a huge night.

Take Pitt minus the small number as they grab the home win and cover.

10 Dime –

RHODE ISLAND

Take Rhode Island tonight over Massachusetts.

This is a revenge spot for Rhode Island, who was embarrassed in a 77-55 loss last season at U Mass.

The Rams have improved their scoring this season and continue to play an ultra high-tempo pace. U Mass eventually would like to mold themselves into that type of team, but they are still too inconsistent.

As long as Rhode Island continues to get everyone involved offensively, nobody in this conference can compete with them.

Take the Rams as they get it done on the road tonight over U Mass

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Winning Points Online

**PREFERRED
Golden State* over Chicago by 22

It's what the Warriors were built to do -- run opponents who are in distress on long road trips out of their building.

Rested home team that plays up-tempo game meets visitor playing second of back-to-back nights way out on the Western road, and the visitor played all four quarters in Portland last night. We know. We had 'em at +5.5 on the Executive Club list. Ben Gordon is out,Hinrich is hurting, missed last night and hasn't practiced since bruising his ribs at Seattle. Duhon is playing hurt.

GOLDEN STATE 114-92

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Black Magic Sports

NCAA Basketball

5 Unit Black Magic Pac-10 Elite Rematch on UCLA -2

The UCLA Bruins will put the hammer down on the Washington State Cougars just as they did already once this season! Washington State is overmatched and there are just too many mismatches all over the floor for the Cougars to compete. Washington State has lost 3 out of their last 4 games overall, including back-to-back home losses to Cal and Stanford. UCLA is a perfect 8-0 in road games this season, so playing away from home has not phased this Pac-10 powerhouse one bit. UCLA is 6-0 ATS after 4 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more this season. The Bruins always win the battle on the boards. Washington State is not a prolific scoring team so they will be doomed again tonight when the Bruins man-handle them inside. Cash in with UCLA as the favorite.

3 Unit Sharp Play on Morehead State -6

You may have never bet on Morehead State before, but one thing you need to know is that Morehead is perhaps the best home team in the country. Morehead State has yet to lose at home this season and their perfect 9-0 home record will go without a blemish again tonight. SE Missouri State is just 5-9 SU and ATS in road games this season. Morehead is winning their home games by 15 points per contest. Morehead beat SE Missouri State by 4 points on the road earlier this season. Morehead has won 7 out of their last 8 games and are on an 8-2 ATS run heading into Thursday’s match-up. Cash in with Morehead State as the favorite.

3 Unit Sharp Play on Cal Poly S.L.O. +1.5

Cal Poly is very talented and as shown by their huge road win over Pacific on ESPN 2 a couple games back. Cal Poly had a letdown in between that game and tonight’s game, but we fully expect them to bounce back in a big way at home tonight against one of their rivals. UC-Irvine is just 2-11 in road games this season. UC-Irvine is 2-9 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. Cal Poly is 8-0 ATS off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points over the last 3 seasons. Cash in with Cal Poly as the underdog.

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Gator's NBA/CBB 70% Report

CBB
Wednesday: Play Over CBB road teams when the total is between 120 and 129.5 points after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games 32-8 Over since 1997 (80.0%) PLAY: Indiana / Illinois OVER 127

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Net Prophet

NBA

Miami/Philadelphia OVER 190'
Chicago/GS UNDER 212

NHL

Toronto +165 over Montreal
Nashville -1 1/2 +175 over Tarpon Bay
Chicago +190 over Calgary

CBB

Pittsburgh -3 over West Virginia

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