Thursday Service Plays

Thursday Service Plays

Alex Smart

SE Missouri St. +7.5

Southeast Missouri is 11-7 overall and 6-2 in the Ohio Valley Conference notching wins against Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech and Eastern Kentucky and road wins over Samford, Jacksonville State and Eastern Illinois. They beat their hosts tonight Tennessee State by a 102-95 count the last time they played earlier this season at home, and looked the superior team in that tilt, and despite of being without senior forward Brandon Foust(injury) , this deep Redhawks team, looks like solid underdogs against a inconsistent host that is just is 6-10 overall and 3-4 in the OVC. Note: Southeast is one of six teams in NCAA Division I to have 10 or more players score in double figures this season.

Play on SE Missouri State

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Marc Lawrence

Marquette Warriors at Louisville Cardinals

The Warriors are true road warriors as evidenced by their 30-14-1 ATS mark as conference road dogs when facing a .680 or better opponent. They're also 4-0 ATS against foes off a SUATS win this season. Look for more of the same from Dominic James and the Warriors this evening.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Feist comp

A couple of power offensive teams meet in Denver. Utah is No. 1 in the NBA in shooting at 49% from the field. Denver is fourth in the league in points scored (106 ppg) while Utah is fifth (105 ppg). Utah doesn't play much defense on the road, allowing 105 ppg, which is why they are 12-7 over the total away from home. The last four times these teams have met the "over" is 3-1. Play the Jazz/Nuggets over the total!

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Mighty Quinn

Tennessee -10.5


Joe Wiz

Vanderbilt +10.5


LT Lock

Tenn.+10'


Arthur Ralph

Super Pick

Pacific

Daily BEST BETS:

Ill-Chicago

Phoenix Suns


Gamblers Data

Cleveland/San Antonio Over 183


Burns

Div. GOM-------------Sharks
TNT GOW-------------Suns
False Fav GOM---------Minnesota
Roast------------------St. Louis


POINTWISE

TENNESSEE over Vanderbilt RATING: 2

ARIZONA over Stanford RATING: 5

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Sports Gambling Hotline

Phoenix (-2') at LA LAKERS

Tonight we expect the Suns to break into the win column in the season series against the upstart Lakers. No one thought LA would be this good this year, including Kobe "Trade Me" Bryant, but the Lakers are a game ahead of the Suns in the Pacific standings, and they have won and covered both meetings with Phoenix this season after losing in the playoffs to the Suns last April.

The Lakers struggled to get by Seattle the other night in overtime, and even though that was win #7 in a row, we get the feeling the loss of Andrew Bynum is going to be felt tonight against the Suns.

Bynum went nuts in LA's Christmas Day win at home over Phoenix, scoring 28 in the 122-115 win. We just don't see where the Lakers are going to turn to replace that kind of production this evening, and beyond for that matter?

Look for Phoenix to take control of this one, and snap the Lakers winning streak at 7 straight.

Play on the Suns.

5* PHOENIX

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

EZ Winners

NCAA

2 STAR: (540) MINNESOTA (+1.5) over Indiana
(Risking $220 to win $200)

Indiana is off to a great start this season, but you have to love the job that Tubby Smith is doing with the Gophers. Minnesota is undefeated at home this year and the home crowd will be fired up for this one. Indiana is just 1-5 against the spread in their last five trips to Minnesota and they are only 2-10 against the spread in their last tweleve conference games. The underdog is also 7-2 against the spread in the last nine meetings. I'll take the points with the live home dog!

1 STAR: (546) DENVER (-3) over Arkansas State
(Risking $110 to win $100)

This one is pretty simple. You have a Denver team that plays well at home against an Arkansas State team that is horrible on the road. The home team has won five straight in this series and eight out of the last ten and Denver is 7-3 against the spread in the last ten meetings. I'll lay the small number here!

NBA


2 STAR: (505) PHOENIX (-2) over LA Lakers
(Risking $220 to win $200)

Okay the team with the best record in the Western Conference is a home underdog against a Phoenix team that they have already beaten twice this season? I think the public will be all over the Lakers, but I do think Phoenix is the play here. The lose of Bynum is going to hurt against the Suns. Lay the points!

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

COMPS


RAZOR SHARP SPTS

YOUR FREE WINNER FOR THURSDAY: WRIGHT ST +3½ over Illinois-Chicago


TV HOTLINE

CONNECTICUT -8


#1 SPTS

THURSDAY'S FREE WINNER: ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK - 8


DARK HORSE SPTS

Free Play of the Day: NCAA - Butler -6 over Cleveland State


HUDDLE UP SPTS

Phoenix -1


TOTALS 4U

THURSDAY'S FREE WINNER: MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES + 3


VEGAS STEAMLINE

Free Winner for Thursday: Take Vanderbilt +10½ over Tennessee


Jimmy The Moose COMP

Game: Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals

Prediction: over

Reason: The over is 7-1-1 in the Oilers last 9 road games. On the road Edmonton is allowing 3.23 GPG and tonight they face a Capitals team that averages 2.95 GPG at home. The over is 6-2-2 in Washington's last 10 home games. In their last 8 games following a win the over is 6-2. In their last 8 games overall the over is 5-2-1. In their last 10 games following 1 day rest the over is 6-2-2. Play the over tonight.


Robert Ross comp

Game: Montreal Canadiens at Atlanta Thrashers

Prediction: Montreal Canadiens

Reason: Atlanta ripe for a letdown after big win in Detroit in its last. Montreal looking to finish off a 4-game road trip on a positive note and is looking to avenge a pair of 3-2 losses to the Thrashers. Take the Habs!


Global Handicapping

Denver -3.5


BIG TIME SPORTS

MONTANA -12 OVER IDAHO STATE


Must Win Sports Picks

NHL
Detroit -1.


TRACE ADAMS

Louisville Cardinals


Joe Wiz

CBA - Vanderbilt (+10.5)

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Mr. A's

Cleveland at San Antonio, 8:00 PM San Antonio Spurs -8

Phoenix at LA Lakers, 10:30 PM Los Angeles Lakers +2


Gator's NBA/CBB 70% Report

CBB

Thursday: Play On CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, a team with a winning percentage of 60% to 80% playing a team with a winning record

36-8 ATS the last 5 seasons (81.8%) PLAY: CS-Fullerton +3.5

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Johnny Guild

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers 

The Suns played below par in their last game on Tuesday, a 97-90 loss to the Clippers at the Staples Center and have lost two of their last three games on the road. Los Angeles is 9-1 in their last 10 games at home and won the first two battles against the Suns this season. Take the Lakers in a high scoring clash. The Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, 2-3-1 ATS last six away from home and went 1-4 ATS in the last five contests versus the Lakers. Los Angeles has won seven straight and 11 of its last 12 games overall.

Los Angeles Lakers +2

CBB

7:00 p.m. Vanderbilt (16-1) at Tennessee (14-1) Tennessee Volunteers -10.5

7:30 p.m. Butler (16-1) at Cleveland St. (12-5) Butler Bulldogs -6

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

RAS

Cal State Fullerton at Pacific (-3)

Pacific is 11-5 despite having played one of the tougher non-conference schedule's in the Big West. They are 2-1 in conference play and have yet to have serve broken at home with only Big West loss coming at first place CSUN in a game they led the entire first half. The Tigers dominated Big West play for three years before a down season last year but they return all key components and are much more seasoned, healthy, and deep this year. Miami Ohio transfer Chad Troyer has added a much needed consistent scorer on the perimeter. Pacific has a balanced offense (lead Big West in FG%) and a solid defense (2nd in Big West in FG% allowed). Fullerton is overvalued here despite coming off a bad 15 point home loss to UCSB. Their conference worst defense was again exposed as the Gauchos put up 89 points. The Titans have some talented scorers but their lack of size leaves their offense unbalanced and their defense a liability. This is even more of a problem on the road. Pacific easily has the most fans and biggest home court advantage in the conference. Expect the Tigers to make a statement that they will again be a factor in the Big West with a solid win here. Give the points.

Play: Pacific -3 1 UNIT

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

TOM SCOTT'S FIVE STAR UPSET SPECIAL!

Indiana at MINNESOTA

Play ON: #540 MINNESOTA plus the points

The Gophers are perfect on this floor this season and are hoping to stay that way and, while they're at it, give venerated coach Tubby Smith his 400th career win. If history repeats itself like they say, Minnesota will get the job done. Indiana has won only once in its last eight trips to Minny and is a lowly 4-23 SU in its last 27 games on the conference road against .600 or better opposition. Raise the ante to .700 or better and the Hoosiers are 1-15 SU in their last 16 tries. Here's the rub: In those 16 games, Indiana was the underdog each time. We're not sure why the Hoosiers are favored here and we're going to pay to find out. Take the Gophers and the points.

PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 78 - Indiana 68

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Bobby Bo

3* UC Davis +7
3* Minnesota +2
3* Seton Hall -5
1* Free Play Louisville -3


Calf Sports

4* Stanford
3* St Johns
3* Rhode Island
3* Pacific

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Michael Cannon

15 Dime

ARIZONA STATE

Take the points with Arizona State tonight when they visit California.

The Sun Devils were off last weekend which means they had extra time to prepare for tonight’s meeting. Coach Herb Sendek has done a good job so far in implementing his system and Cal is going to find the going tough against Arizona State tonight.

The Sun Devils played Cal very tough last season and they’ve improved immensely since then so tonight should be another close contest.

Cal’s frontcourt is thin right now, with Theo Robertson and Omondi Amoke both out with injuries. They stopped a two-game losing streak with a 10-point win at Oregon State last Saturday, but Arizona State will provide a tougher test tonight.

The Sun Devils are on a nine-game winning streak and are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine versus the Pac-10.

The road team is on a 13-3 ATS run in the last 16 meetings.

Take the points with Arizona State as they stay within the number on the road.


10 Dime

LOUSIVILLE

Lay the points with Louisville tonight when they host Marquette.

No question Marquette is off to a good start this year, but I trust Louisville and coach Rick Pitino at home.

The Cardinals are 3-0 SUATS in their last three.

Louisville is doing it with defense this year, as they rank in the top 20 in field-goal defense and points allowed.

The Golden Eagles are 2-7 ATS on the highway dating to last season, 2-6 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning home mark and 1-4 ATS on Thursday.

The Cardinals are on ATS runs of 6-2 on Thursday and 19-7-1 in the Big East.

Lay the small number as Louisville grabs the home win and cover.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Brandon Lang

20 Dime: Suns
5 Dime: Illinois-Chicago
5 Dime: Minnesota
5 Dime: St. Louis

Free Pick: Marquette

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

FAGARINO

5.5-Unit Play. Take #521 Butler (-5) over Cleveland State

Note: This is our Game of the Week. Buy the hook. If you can't buy the hook I endorse the play at -5.5. But this line is dropping, so you may be able to wait it out.

I’m not going to run through the litany of teams that Butler has beaten – but there are a lot of very good ones on that list. They aren’t going to lose to Cleveland State. If they aren’t going to lose, I think they’re going to cover. They are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games and 13-5-1 ATS overall. Cleveland State is in first place in the Horizon League mainly because they have played the worst teams in the conference. They are 3-7-1 ATS against teams over .500 and they really don’t have much diversity on offense. Butler has beaten CSU by 42, 25, and 29 in the last three meetings and are 13-2 SU in their last 15 meetings. I think CSU has closed the gap significantly, but I really don’t see how this isn’t a 10-point Butler win.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #579 Tennessee-Martin (+10.5) over Austin Peay

I think this line is going to climb, so you may be able to get it at +11 if you are patient.

Tennessee-Martin can put the ball in the hole and Austin Peay’s forte has been close wins. These teams went into overtime two weeks ago and I just don’t see this much separation. Only three of the last 10 meetings have been decided by more than 10 points and I think UT-Martin can hang with a team that is 0-8-2 ATS in its last 10.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #575 SE Missouri State (+7) over Tennessee State

This is too many points to be giving the better team. Tennessee State has proven nothing in the OVC and SE Missouri State has been dominating smaller teams on the boards. I think SEMS has a strong chance to win this one outright.

2-Unit Play. Take #517 Vanderbilt (+10.5) over Tennessee

This is too many points to give up for a team that doesn’t play any defense. That has been our rationale in several plays against the Vols this year and I think we are 3-0 against them. Don't be shocked if Tennessee gets up big early and then lets Vandy back in the door in the last 10 minutes.

2-Unit Play. Take #539 Indiana (-125) over Minnesota

If Minnesota’s best win wasn’t a three-point victory over Penn State then I might be a believer. They don’t, so I’m not. IU is not nearly as good as the Hype, but they have enough scoring options to make this one a comfortable win. This line is about four points too light and we’ll back the team that’s 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #560 Stanford (-5) over Arizona

Arizona is a bit banged up right now – Jordan Hill has a sore ankle and is only about 85 percent, Chase Budinger has had the flu, and Bret Brielmaier is out with a shoulder injury. I don’t know if they can roll into Stanford and beat the Cardinal with everyone not at 100 percent. I just don’t think they have enough raw talent for that this year. Stanford shot 2-for-18 from 3-point land at Oregon over the weekend in a game they should have won. That screams bounceback to me as I see them knocking down somewhere closer to their 38.7-percent home clip. The Cardinal are one of the best defensive teams in the country, their top guys make their free throws, and I think they pull away late for an 8-point win.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

DOC

4 Unit Play. #517 Take Vanderbilt +10 ½ over Tennessee

Way too many points to be laying in this Battle of Tennessee, as the Commodores head to Knoxville to take on the Volunteers. Both teams have just one setback on the season and Vandy has had plenty of time to recover from that emotional loss to Kentucky over the weekend in double overtime. Both teams have great guard play and thus expect many perimeter shots and Vandy can more then hold their own. This game will go right down to the wire and getting double digits makes this a strong play with the underdog.

4 Unit Play. #521 Take Butler -5 ½ over Cleveland State

The Bulldogs are in first place in the Horizon League and expect them to stay there for the remainder of the season, moving to 5-0 after putting away Cleveland State on Thursday. Butler owns a commanding 21-5 series lead over Cleveland State, including four consecutive wins over the Vikings. This game comes down to one player in A.J. Graves. Butler has him and the Rams have no answer for him. He is a big time player and will be able to play at the next level and when you are in the Horizon League, you will not face strong competition and be able to showcase all of your skills.

4 Unit Play. #526 Take Seton Hall -5 over South Florida

The Hall will record their first conference victory of the season tonight @ the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. The Pirates have never lost to the Bulls and that will continue past Thursday and the more athletic talent lies with the home squad. Seton Hall is scoring over 80 points per game and that will allow them to cover this medium sized number. Brian Laing will dominated inside going for a double-double propelling the Hall to their first victory on the season. They have too much talent to be this bad and will not go 0-4 in Big East play.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Gold Key‏

Morehead State -3.5


Priority Sports Info

1-13 run  yikes - had Xavier last night 

Wash St - 20

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

LOCKOFTHEDAY.COM

Thursday, January 17th, 2008

Today's Lock: College Basketball
Lock Of The Month ~ INDIANA -1.5

The Hoosiers are the best team in the BIG 10. Minnesota is overrated. The Gophers lost to UNLV by 18 points a couple weeks ago. Minnesota is 12-3, but they do not have one quality win! Indiana is led by freshman phenom Eric Gordon. DJ White is also a bigtime player. Indiana has already beaten Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Michigan, and Illinois this year. THEY WILL NOT LOSE TO MINNESOTA!! The Gophers nice record will get tarnished tonight! Indiana is a LOCK. This game is worth 2 Lock wins or 2 Lock losses. Bet the Hoosiers!

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

AAA

Marquette Golden Eagles at Louisville Cardinals - Louisville -3 -110 | Unit Value: 2

Note: Louisville Head Coach Rick Pitino has turned in one of his best coaching jobs this season. His team had been wrecked by injury, a broken knee cap suffered by senior leader center David Padgett, and a knee injury by senior guard Juan Palacios, limiting his options. Also on various occasions he had to suspend both center Derrick Caracter and forward Earl Clark for a game. Because of that the Cardinals got off to a horrible start and the Boo Birds began to be heard at his home arena. This is a very talented team but lacking both leadership on the court, and depth on the bench did not allow Mr P from doing what his teams are famous for. That is, of course High D Pressure for 40 minutes. Always playing pressure defense, Pitino has different pressures, one to slow an opponent, a second more hectic to try and cause turnovers. With a lack of depth, he could not turn up the pressure often until everyone returned. They are all back and the Cardinals are playing as good as anyone in this country right now, with wins at Kentucky, and Rutgers, and home to a very good West Virginia Team. We saw what they are capable of with the Mountaineers in town as the Cards held them to just 36% shooting and numerous turnovers. I am not a huge proponent of laying any points to a squad as good as Marquette, and they certainly have performed well outside of Milwaukee, but they are going to playing a highly motivated team tonight that has all their horses back in the stable. The Golden Eagles are going to try to force the isuue tonight and we are going to see some running at Freedom Hall. The key to the game will be whether Louisville's pressure can harass all-Big East Guard Dominque James, a lightning fast kid who is a flashy passer and possesses among the top turnover-assist ratios in the league. If they cannot stop him, they might very well be in for a long night. But the Cardinals have proven they can reek havoc with good guards as they did with West Va, and they do possess great turnover ratios themselves. Nobody is playing better D than Louisville right now, limiting all opponents to 34% shooting over the last 6 games, and being at home, performing as they are, should give us what we want. Petino said it best. "This is a home-court league. At one point all the Big East teams were playing good on the road. Now they seem to be playing great at home." Both of Marquette's losses have come outside Milwaukee. I am laying the 3 points.

Cal St Fullerton Titans at Pacific Tigers - Pacific -3.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2

Note: The Tigers have the 3rd best defense in this conference and that deserted them last game at Northridge. That is probably not going to happen tonight as they return home where they play D as good as anyone in this country. They also win here at a high clip and are off to a 5-1 mark this year already. While they will face another high octane offense in Fullerton, they will also be playing a team that does not play good D and is way near the bottom of the conference with that stat. The Titans have struggled against good defensive squads and last game Cal SB took it to them pretty hard. "Their defense was terrific," coach Bob Burton told the Orange County Register. "They got out on the right guys, and we didn't penetrate with the ball, didn't get it inside, didn't move it. I think what happened was that when the defense had us so stymied, that if you're not scoring, that affects how you're going to play defense and it hurt us." The Tigers have played their last 3 on the road, and their last 4 of 5. They are back at home for a nice stretch of activity and can ill afford to lose this one to a team that is already 3-1 in the conference. It is time to circle the wagons and they will be highly motivated to do so. Sometimes that is all it takes to win a game, but the fact is, Pacific at home is a much better proposition than Fullerton on the road. This line has drifted upward since posting this morning and still a play at the current level.

Arkansas State Indians at Denver Pioneers - Denver -2.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2

Note: Denver is becoming a pain in the neck for Sun Belt teams because of its meticulous Princeton offense and UALR found that out a few days ago. "I would hate to face that offense every day. It's like going to have a root canal." -- New Orleans coach Joe Pasternack. Denver coach Joe Scott, and formally the same at the Ivy League School has done a good job with a team that is limited in talent, but is playing his style of play almost to perfection. That talent level just went down again and this team with 7 true freshmen on a 13 man roster just lost Small Forward David Kummer as he went down with an ankle injury last game and his 11 Points and 4.7 Rebounds will be missed by this team that regularly plays only 7 to 8 players per game. He is their leading scorer and perhaps why this line opened at 3 and has dropped a bit. But that is not what this team is all about, and the fact is, they work the ball very well and they will find the open shot tonight. They have done that very well here at home with a 5-1 mark and probably because they are nailing all shots at over 51%. Arkansas State has not traveled well this season and they never have. They have won but 1 of 7 away from Jonesboro and that was their last game as they beat a very poor UL Monroe team. They have had serious problems stopping anyone, allowing an amzing 53% shooting away from home and 81 points per game. They do lack depth at all positions and that is key here in the High Air of Denver Colorado. They have lost 6 straight here in Colorado and my best belief is that they will lose again. The Pioneers won just 3 Sunbelt games all last year, they already have 3 wins this year. Coach Scott is on my Hit List for people to watch in this conference and he will show his magic tonight with better shot selection, better D, and a hefty turnover margin this year, especially in front of the home crowd.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

1. 200,000* Arizona State
2. 50,000* Louisville
3. 50,000* Nuggets

1. Arizona State- Okay so the Sun Devils lose badly in an early season road game at Nebraska, and all of sudden everyone is jumping off their bandwagon tonight in Berkeley... You'd think 9 straight wins, including a nice OT win over Arizona last week would tell you something about how far this team has progessed! Look for the Sun Devile to to prove doubters wrong in this spot, and here's why:

First, if recent history is any barometer, then this game should be a close one. Recall last year's black-and-blue 42-41 battle, in which the Sun Devils upset the Bears in Berkeley. In the meeting beforehand, they went into overtime, with Cal pulling out the 66-62 win. Not to mention the fact the Sun Devils have had 8 days to gameplan for this match up, while Cal has Arizona on deck two days from now!

Second, if you thought last year's version of Arizona State played hard-nosed defense, this year's version in downright nasty, allowing just 57 ppg on 40% over their last 5 games (and that includes wins against Arizona and Oregon). Their youngish guard-heavy rotation is quick on their feet and with their hands, led by James Hardin's 27 steals (2 others with 19 steals).

Also, while many are calling for Ryan Anderson and DeVon Hardin to dominate this match up, its really not that simple. Just because the Sun Devils are smaller, doesn't mean they can't compete... Did guard-heavy Oregon have trouble with this Cal team? No, because despite the fact Anderson scored 22 points in that game, the rest of his team (besides G Christopher) is average at best.

Finally, let's look over some trends, as the Sun Devils have been excellent against the PAC-10, going 7-1-1 ATS over their last 9 in conference. Not only that, but the road team in this series is an outstanding 13-3 ATS over their last 16 meetings. Numbers like those are hard to ignore, but I'll leave you with one last stat to digest... Cal is allowing 72 ppg over their last 5 games, and if you think defense like that is going to extend the margin enough to cover, then you don't know college basketball!

Take Arizona State plus the points over California as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Louisville- This is a tough spot for Marquette, as they've shown vulnerability on the road this season with a loss at West Virginia, and are just 2-7 ATS over their last 9 road games. Coming into Pitino's house with his team healthy and starting to surge does not bode well for the Golden Eagles tonight.

Make no mistake, the Cardinals win at Kentucky was their "turnaround game," a game that they can hang their hats on and build off of for the rest of the season. They've won and covered 3 straight, including beating the very same West Virgnia team that beat Marquette 63-54 at Freedom Hall a week ago. Speaking of Freedom Hall, don't forget the Golden Eagles outright win there last season... Now its payback time!

Biggest reason why they win and cover tonight at home is defense, plain and simple. Louisville is allowing just 54 ppg on an outstanding 34% shooting over their last 5 games! When you include the fact that those numbers came against offenses like Kentucky and West Virginia, that stat is even more impressive. The Cardinals frontcourt is head and shoulders better than Marquette on both ends of the court, while the backcourt of Smith, McGee, and Sosa is good enough to at least limit Marquette's guard duo of James and McNeal.

Finally, the numbers don't lie, as Louisville is 12-2-2 ATS against the Big East over their last 16 regular season match ups. More of the same tonight, as the Cardinals are starting to peak, and playing them at home without the size to counter their deep frontcourt is a recipe for disaster, plain and simple.

Take Louisville over Marquette in this Big East showdown.

3. Nuggets- While its easy to underestimate Denver in this spot, thanks to the fact they've lost 3 of their last 4 games, all 3 of those losses were on the road, where Denver has been anything but good. Back at home is a different story, as the Nuggets protect their house with zeal, going 15-5 SU & 11-9 ATS there, including wins and covers over Orlando and San Antonio the last 2 weeks.

Utah suffers from the same problem as Denver, in that, they're both excellent home teams, but terrible road teams. You could easily make the argument that the Jazz's disparity of home vs. road play is even greater, going 16-3 SU in Salt Lake, but just 6-14 SU on the highway. The problem is defense, as they leave their intensity back in Utah, allowing 105 ppg on a ridiculous 48% shooting when they travel!

It doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out that allowing opponents to shoot 48% on the road is a big reason why the Jazz are 6-14 SUATS on the road. Facing a bad offense, they may be able to get away with it, but Denver is one of the better offenses in the NBA, especially at home, where they average upwards of 108 ppg on the year.

While its true the Nuggets have some injuries to consider, like Martin and Najera, as long as Camby is playing, I like their chances. He not only dominates the glass, but has the ability to challenge smallish PF Boozer in the paint. Boozer can be a beast, but at just 6'9, will have issues scoring on the pogo-stick like Camby.

Bottom line, with both teams neck and neck in the standings, this game is an important statement for either team. Unfortunately for the Jazz, their defense seemingly always finds a way to let them down on the road, and that'll be true once again tonight. Nuggets protect their house and grab the cash in this one.

Take the Nuggets over the Jazz in this NBA match up.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
45139
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
284116
Average Posts Per Hour:
3.5
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3633
Newest User:
Dani
Members Online:
0
Guests Online:
2397

Online: 
There are no members online

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com