Wednesday Service Plays

Wednesday Service Plays

Jim Feist Free Pick

POR Trail Blazers/BOS Celtics

Take "Under"

So what has fueled Portland's surprising run this season? Defense! The Blazers are fifth in the NBA allowing 44% shooting by opponents, and seventh allowing 95 ppg. They are 21-15 under the total. The Celtics with newcomer Kevin Garnett are even better, allowing 41% shooting, tops in the league. Boston is 20-16 under the total and on a 5-0 under run. Play the Blazers/Celtics under the total!

Dave Cokin Free Pick

So Miss/UAB

Take "(772) UAB"

Nobody knows the Mountain West better than Dave, and he's stepping out with strong selections on tonight's Air Force-Wyoming and Utah-SD State contests. Score both big winners FREE at 1-888-389-7223!... "Southern Miss has managed to hang in with some pretty tough defense, but I think they're in for a tough night at UAB. The Blazers have excelled at imposing their will at home, and I like their chances of forcing a faster tempo this evening. If they're able to accomplish that feat, UAB should roll to a double digit win over the limited Golden Eagles. I'll give the points with UAB."

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Big Al McMordie

Seattle Supersonics vs. New Orleans Hornets (NBA) - Jan 16, 2008 8:05 PM EST
Play: Point Spread: 11/100 Seattle Supersonics Pick Title: Big Al's Complimentary Wednesday Night Hoops Winner.

At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on Seattle. The New Orelans Hornets are having a terrific season (25-12) in All-Star Chris Paul's third year in the league. Tonight, New Orleans will go up against another great young player in Seattle's Kevin Durant, but unfortunately for the Sonics, Durant does not yet have great pieces around him. Seattle has struggled of late, losing seven straight games heading into tonight, but it did almost upset the Lakers on Monday, but fell in overtime 123-121. I think we will get another strong effort from P.J. Carlesimo's club here in New Orleans, as teams tend to do well against the spread off long losing streaks. No professional athlete wants to lose, and when an NBA team falls six or more times in a row, that teams tries its hardest to break back into the win column. My database has several systems that incorporate this basic principle, so let's take a look at one of them. Consider that, since 1990, rested road underdogs of more than 9 points are 93-47 ATS if they have lost six or more games in a row, and have a win percentage of .100 or better. There are three elements to this angle that are key. The first is that our losing team is playing with rest. That's important since we'll get a much more energized effort that if our team was tired from a loss the night before. The second element is that our team is a big underdog of +9.5 points or more. This is important since we want a safety net should our bad team give a good effort, but still come up short. This came into play on Monday night when this very same system had Philadelphia +11 over San Antonio. The 76ers gave a supreme effort and were even winning the game 77-75 with a few minutes left, but lost 89-82. But because we were getting double-digits with Philly, we got the $$$$. Finally, the third important element here is that our team has a win percentage greater than .100. We don't want any part of a team that CAN'T win, and might have resigned itself to that fact. Take the Sonics.

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Mighty Quinn

Arkansas -9.5


RedZone Sports.

So. Alabama


Gator Report

In this issue of our E-Report Online Newsletter we have Gator's CBB 70% Situational Report for Wednesday's hardwood action and Gator's CBB Trend /Angle Report for Wednesday January 16th, 2008.

CBB

Wednesday: Play On CBB favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after going under the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games, with a winning record on the season
51-16 ATS the last 5 seasons (76.1%) PLAY: Georgia -4.5

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CTO

*IOWA over Purdue...With Iowa probably winless in Big Ten play after facing early quartet of conf. powers (combined 47-7 SU!), willing to support hungry Hawkeyes, who've registered a 15-2 SU mark at home in Big Ten last 2+ seasons (prior to Michigan State Jan. 12). Iowa's potent G duo of J. Johnson (16 ppg, 40% treys) & now-healthy Freeman (12 ppg, 4 apg; missed 1st 10 games due to broken foot) should burn inexperienced Purdue, ranked near bottom of Big 10 in two major defensive categories (FG & 3-pt.%). And Iowa's new HC Todd Lickliter figures to have good gameplan after defeating Boilers, 68-65, as Butler head honcho LY.

*IOWA 69 - Purdue 59 RATING - 10

TULANE over *Tulsa...Torrid Tulane (7-1 SU last 8 thru Jan. 8) ready to make some noise in C-USA, uplifted by 3 preconference upsets (including 1st win vs. LSU in 27 yrs.!). So, will gladly take any available points vs. Tulsa squad that lacks a true PG after soph playmaker M. Hill left early in campaign. Contrarily, Green Wave's gritty, 5-10 soph distributor Sims (13 ppg, 4 apg, 2 spg) has become a superb floor leader, while dependable 6-7, 240 sr. F Gomez (13 ppg, 6 rpg,) & emerging 6-7, 260 jr. F Louisme (11 ppg, 6 rpg) will be "double-trouble" in paint for G-driven Golden Hurricane.

TULANE 78 - *Tulsa 68 RATING - 11

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Vegas Experts

Celtics coach Doc Rivers has heard the criticism that he's playing his starters too many minutes and here against the young and rather thin Blazers he can work his bench in for some quality minutes. Expect Tony Allen, Glen Davis, Brian Scalabrine and Scott Pollard to play heavy minutes here with the "Big Three" playing just enough to ensure a solid home win.

Play on: Boston

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Cappers Access

Flor St

Georgia Tech


Big Al 

Bulls


LT'S LOCK

Celtics -8'


Joe Wiz

Northern Illinois -1

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Alex Smart

Portland Trail Blazers +8.5

The Portland Trailblazers enter into this road contest against the Boston Celtics at the Fleet Center as cash cows for their betting backers ,covering 18 of their L/22 games. The mighty Celtics on the other hand are beginning to look human, losing 3 of their L/4 SU overall, while failing to cover 5 of their L/7 , and 5 of their L/6 as double digit favorites. Final notes & Key Trends: Boston is 1-10 ATS in their L/11 January homes dating back to last season. Play on the Blazers

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Arthur Ralph

Super Pick: Dayton

900 RunAway Winner: Texas A&M


Greg Daraban

763 Florida (15-2) at 764 Ole Miss (14-1)

SEC tilt in Oxford. The 2 time National Champions come to Ole Miss to take on the
Rebels. The Gators are 2-0, but they are in deep tonight. The Rebs are 1-1 but this
an outstanding squad. The crowd will be at fever pitch tonight in the old south.
Mississippi make a name for themselves with a big win.

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Brandon Lang

10 Dime - Dayton
5 Dime - Ole Miss
5 Dime - Fordham
5 Dime - Texas A&M

Free Pick - Trail Blazers

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Vegas Experts Tip Of The Day

Pacers started fast Sunday night in Oakland but didn't have the depth to finish off the deal. Depth and pace will again be a problem tonight vs. a Warriors club that opened a four-game, five-day road trip last night with a 105-98 victory over Minnesota. Golden State has won three straight and four of its last five games. The Pacers return home from a 1-4 road trip and have lost nine-of-11 overall. Home favorites off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog are 11-32 ATS in January games the past five seasons.

Play on: Golden State

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COMPS

RAZOR SHARP  Old Dominion

TOTALS4U  Atlanta UNDER

BIG TIME SPORTS  Davidson

#1 SPORTS  Drake

COMPUTER SPORTS  Orlando

NEVADA SHARPSHOOTER  Northeastern

THE SCOUT  Michigan

HAWKEYE SPORTS  UAB

HUDDLE UP SPORTS  Boston

ARTHUR RALPH  UAB

DARK HORSE  St Joe

VEGAS STEAM LINE  New Jersey

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Burns

Pers Fave-------------Rangers
NBA total GOW--------Under Sonics/Hornets
Non Conf GOM---------Pacers
Conf GOM-------------Mississippi

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Gator Report (Cajun-Sports)

Gator's 70% Situational Report

NBA

Wednesday: Play Against NBA underdogs after a win by 10 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less 2 straight games
44-16 ATS the last 5 seasons (73.3%) PLAY: Boston -9

CBB

Wednesday: Play On CBB road favorites of 10 or more points with a team that averages >=+8 PPG differential against a team that averages <=-8 PPG differential after 15 or more games, after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games 24-2 ATS since 1997 (92.3%) PLAY: Memphis -26

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Docs CBB

4 Unit Play. Take Western Michigan -2 ½ over Ball State

This is a flat out play against the home team, as the Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the MAC. Western Michigan has won the last four meetings in this series and will make it five tonight and getting under a field goal makes it a strong play.

4 Unit Play. Take Fordham -5 over George Washington

The Colonials have not been in action since their dominating performance over St. Louis, a game that set basketball back 20 years, as the Billikens only scored 20 total points. They will receive a much tougher test on Wednesday against the Rams, a team still looking for their first conference win. George Washington has yet to record a victory on the road this year and Fordham is too good of a team to start 0-3 in conference play. Things even out on Wednesday, as Fordham records the victory.

4 Unit Play. Take Drake -3 over Bradley

The Bulldogs are for real and will likely earn an NCAA Tournament Birth as one of the premier teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. Bradley has fallen on hard times this season and will also be without its top scorer in Daniel Ruffin, who underwent hernia surgery. Bradley has been terrible at Carver Arena, having dropped four straight games and Drake is 4-1 in true road games this season. Drake has won 13 straight games and is not afraid to play in hostile environments, but they will certainly not witness one of those tonight against a depleted squad in Bradley.

4 Unit Play. Take Illinois State -9 ½ over Wichita State

Much like the Braves, the Shockers are just a glimmer of their self and will get blown out tonight against a much improved Red Bird team. ISU has already recorded a victory in Wichita and will complete the regular season sweep of the programs tonight @ Redbird Arena in Normal, Illinois. The Red Birds have great balance and that bodes well if Eldridge goes cold, because he has numerous teammates that can pick up the slack. The Shockers are just 1-4 in the conference and will drop below .500 with their overall record after a double-digit loss on Wednesday.

5 Unit Play. Take Mississippi -5 ½ over Florida

Game of the Week. We have been waiting for a perfect spot to go against Florida and that has arrived on Wednesday, as this number is way too low. Ole Miss has just a two point loss to Tennessee on their resume as their only setback and have been dominating at Smith Coliseum, currently 8-0. The Rebels have lost just one home game the last two years under Coach Kennedy and this young Gator team does not realize what is in store for them. Ole Miss also has revenge on their mind, as did Ohio State earlier this year when they pounded Florida. Alabama just on the Gators early, but is mentally weak and could not put them away. The Rebels will jump on them early tonight and put away Florida by halftime.

4 Unit Play. Take Troy -4 over Mid Tenn State

Another classic case where home court makes the difference in the Sun Belt Conference affair. The Raiders are 0-5 on the road and the Trojans can light up the scoreboard. This will be high scoring and thus Troy will be able to cover this number.

4 Unit Play. Take North Carolina -11 over Georgia Tech

The Tar Heels have been the best team in the land and will be able to cover this big number against a bad Yellow Jacket squad. Tech is just 3-3 when playing in Atlanta this year and Carolina has dominated this series winning 57 of the 76 lifetime meetings. Carolina has four players averaging double figures and comes close to scoring triple digits every time they take the floor. They will be able to cover this double-digit number tonight, as they win by close to 20 points.

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Ferringo

5-Unit Play. Take Mississippi (-5) over Florida

Note: This line has moved since I've posted it. But off the hook if you can, but I would recommend playing it for 4.5 Units at -5.5 and 4.0 Units at 6.0.

Frankly, I just don’t think Florida is any good. They still have next to zero experience on the road and Ole Miss can be a daunting place to play. The Gators got hammered at Ohio State and they were getting hammered in Alabama in their only true road tests. They eventually won in ‘Bama, but that’s because ‘Bama stinks. The Rebels have size to complicate matters for and there are two key Ole Miss players – David Huertas and Chris Warren – who have a little revenge factor against the Gators. The home team is 7-3 ATS in this series and the favorite is 5-1. Also, UF is just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road.

3.5-Unit Play. Take Virginia (-5) over Virginia Tech

The Cavaliers should be primed for a bounceback performance tonight against their in-state rival. Virginia is coming off two blowouts in two of the toughest venues in the country – at Duke and at Xavier – and a little home cooking should help them regain their wayward shooting touch. VT is shooting 39.6 percent in its last four road games and they are 3-7 ATS in their L10 as a visitor. The Cavs are 5-0 ATS at home in this series, 5-1 ATS in the L6 meetings, the favorite is 6-2 ATS in the L8 meetings and the home team has covered four straight. I sense some desperation out of UVA and I’ll take their experience over the youthful Hokies.

2-Unit Play. Take DePaul (+11) over Villanova

The Blue Demons handled the Wildcats in Chicago and Nova is 0-5 ATS in its last five games. DePaul is 5-2 ATS in its last seven conference games and a win at St. John’s over the weekend certainly showed some maturity for this senior-laden club. I think this number is about four points heavy and we should be able to sneak in this one through the backdoor.

2-Unit Play. Take Delaware (+12.5) over VCU

Yes, the Blue Hens are due for a letdown after two thrilling overtime wins at home against two of the best teams in the conference. However, this spread is about six points thick. The Rams haven’t been blowing out bad teams at home, beating Hofstra and Georgia State by an average of just six points and failing to cover the spread by a combined 20.5 points. VCU is 7-15-1 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record, and while I think they win tonight I don’t know if it’s going to be a 15- or 18- point blowout.

2-Unit Play. Take South Carolina (+10.5) over Arkansas

As I’ve been saying: I don’t trust any SEC team laying this many points. The Gamecocks have hung around with some decent teams this year, losing to USC, N.C. State, George Mason, Clemson, Baylor and Vandy by an average of 6.5 points. They have also beat Penn State and Providence. They aren’t an awful team and I think they can hang around an Arkansas team that just doesn’t put games away.

2-Unit Play. Take Fordham (-5) over George Washington

Note: This line has moved since I've posted it. But off the hook if you can, but I would recommend playing it for 1.0 Unit at -6 and 1.5 Units at 5.5. No play over -6.

I think it’s time for the Fordham seniors to step up. They were pretty game last weekend against Xavier but were overmatched in the second half. Now they return home after three brutal road games to face a young, inconsistent GW club that has been awful on the road. The Colonials are 3-12-1 ATS on the road and the favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in this series.

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Gold Key&#8207;

Iowa +1.5


Northcoast comps

Purdue -1 1/2

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Dave Malinsky

PICK: Georgia State
Offered at: 6.5

REASON FOR PICK: 4* GEORGIA STATE over DREXEL

When a limited Drexel team gets pushed form -4.5 to as high as -6.5 by the marketplace, it means that we have Rod Barnes right where we want him – getting no respect at all. But we see real progress being made in his first season at the helm at Georgia State, and the key is that there are enough losses piling up for no one to pay any particular attention.

The Panthers enter this game at 1-4 in the Colonial Athletic Association, and are on a run of three straight losses. But take a closer look at those defeats. All three came by just two points, and in all three of them State had the ball with a chance to either win the game or force overtime in the final seconds. The fact that they could not knock the shots down is a sign of a young team that is still developing in confidence, but the fact that they were right there to make it happen tells us much about the level of tenacity at which Barnes has them playing. Tonight we get a matchup in which effort alone is enough to get them on the plus side of the ATS ledger, adding to a 4-0 run as conference underdogs already, and once again we would not be surprised if the game goes to the final buzzer.

Wins are not going to be easy to come by for Drexel this season, much less margins. Like Georgia State the Dragons are also just 1-4 in CAA play, but the way that they have lost has been a different matter entirely – there was an early 85-38 disaster vs. George Mason (the Panthers beat the Patriots at home); a 79-45 thrashing at Northeastern (the Panthers lost by 64-62 on that same court, when Leonard Mendez missed a triple at the buzzer); an 86-77 loss at uninspiring Towson State; and a home loss to Delaware. They are shooting an anemic 41.1 percent from the field, 30.6 from 3-point range; and most important for our purposes is a 60.9 at the free throw line that has them competing for the bottom of the Division I barrel. A favorite that can not make their free throws is a prime candidate to get back-doored, and a tenacious Georgia State team will bring the mentality to make that happen, should it be needed. In a close and low-scoring affair, this pointspread is a mountain.

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Wolkosky Milan

10* CHARLOTTE +1½
10* SEATTLE +11
10* GS/IND UNDER 223


ATS LOCK

5 Iowa St +5 1/2
4 Tulsa -5 1/2
4 Miss -5 1/2
4 Fla Atlantic +19

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Drew Gordon

1. 300,000* Depaul
2. 50,000* Delaware
3. 50,000* Trailblazers

1. Depaul- What Depaul team have oddsmakers been watching?! Maybe during their atrocious 2-7 start you could justify making the Blue Demons double-digit dogs in this spot, but not now, not when they've won 5 of their last 6 games SU and 4 of their last 5 ATS!

Clearly, the Blue Demons have found their chemistry, and the results are there for everyone to see, especially on the defense end. Depaul was losing games in the early season thanks to a lack of consistent defensive intensity, but over their last 5 games they're surrendering 67 ppg on 42% shooting. That's a marked jump from their season averages of 75 ppg allowed on 44% shooting. Just ask Villanova's star G Scottie Reynolds how good this Depaul defense is, as he struggled in their last meeting January 3rd (4 for 12 shooting, 11 points, 4 turnovers).

Probably the biggest match up issue the Wildcats have is in the frontcourt, as despite being cleared, 6'10 C Drummond is not expected to play. Note that in their last match up, Depaul's froncourt of Koshwal, Clarke, and Green combined for 39 points (all 3 in double-figures) and 25 rebounds, dominating the paint. In other words, the Wildcats could desperately use Drummond in this match up, but since he's not expected to play, the Wildcats are again at a disadvantage down-low.

Finally, although it took him a while, coach Wainwright has his boys playing harder than at any other point this season. Their 60-54 outright upset at St. John's is a perfect example of a team firing on all cylinders, even in hostile territory, thanks to excellent chemistry. Some teams react to losses by losing more, other teams learn from their mistakes and flourish, Depaul falls in the latter group.

Bottom line, the edge in the frontcourt is key in this match up, because it opens up the court for G Draelon Burns, making this Depaul offense a lot more dynamic. Although the Wildcats will be playing for revenge, their going to have to beat a Depaul defense that's playing excellent team basketball right now. While 'Nova may win this game, it'll be a hell of a lot closer than the guys in Vegas want you to believe.

Take Depaul plus the points over Villanova as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Delaware- I freely admit I was down on this Delaware team early on, but after watching them beat their last 4 opponents OUTRIGHT, I'm a big enough man to admit I was wrong about the Blue Hens. Overtime wins against George Mason and Old Dominion can only serve to solidify this team further as they travel to face-off with a VCU team that's been far from impressive of late.

Everywhere I read this Rams team is considered an "offensive juggeraut," but where's the proof? Over their last 5 games they're averaging a very pedestrian 64 ppg on 41% shooting... Not exactly burning any barns down. Guys, over the same span the Blue Hens have actually been averaging more points (65 ppg L5), led by some real impressive games from F Herb Courtney, including a 27-point 11 rebound effort against Old Domnion in his last one.

The Rams defense is no joke, but when you're spotting the Blue Hens this many points, its hard for me to believe they can't keep this game within the lumber, especially when you consider Delaware's recent play, which has been nothing short of outstanding. There's little to stop Courtney down-low, and the Delaware guards have been shooting well enough to make VCU pay for keying on their talented forward.

Bottom line, while the Rams almost assuredly win this game at home, the Blue Hens have proven over their last 4 games that they can hang with any team in the CAA. The fact VCU is a big favorite here is based on pereception, but the reality is Delaware is playing solid basketball and they'll bring home the cash in this one.

Take Delaware plus the points over VCU in this CAA match up.

3. Trailblazers- Do I really need to tell you how well this Portland team is playing right now? Winners of 18 of their last 20 games and holding the best pointspread mark in the NBA at 24-13-1, they're a cash-machine and playing like it! Critics however are quick to say they won't be "sneaking up" on anybody anymore, but that's a BS way of not giving credit when credit is due. In fact, its the Celtics who are dealing with issues right now...

While everyone is concentrating on the fact the Celtics have lost consecutive games for the first time this season, I'm more concerned with the fact their offense is struggling mightily right now. Boston is averaging a very un-Boston-like 84 ppg on 43% shooting over their last 5 games, and is a big reason why they've lost 3 of their last 4 games SUATS.

If you're expecting the Celtics to break out of their slump tonight, you might be left disappointed, as the Blazers defense is not only more athletic, but also playing very well, allowing just 95 ppg over their last 5. If the Blazers can lock down offenses like the Warriors (91 points) and Jazz (89 points) over the last week or so, then they can limit an already struggling Celtics offense.

Another factor to consider is the injury to Ramon Rondo, who's listed as questionable with a sore back. The last thing this Boston offense needs is to lose their starting point guard, especially when their depth at the position is terrible. Even if he does play, he'll need to be 100% to effectively combat a very athletic Portland defense.
Bottom line, if you're underestimating this Portland team, shame on you! They've done nothing but win and tonight they face a suddenly struggling Boston team, that's absolutely ripe for the pickings. Boston will likely win this game with a strong defensive effort, but because of their offensive woes, expect this game to be closer than expected. Blazers grab the cash Wednesday night in Boston!

Take the Trailblazers plus the points over the Celtics in this NBA match up.

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BIG AL

At 7 pm, our 5* College Basketball Game of the Month is on the Florida State Seminoles plus the points over Duke. FSU falls into several systems of mine that have records of 14-7, 41-6, 29-19, 94-42 and 107-44 ATS. Some of the systems are plays ON Florida State, while others are plays AGAINST Duke. Let's take a look at our 94-42 ATS system. This angle goes against certain .900 (or better) road favorites off a 14 point (or greater) win, if they're matched up against a winning foe. Florida State is 12-5 on the season, and has defeated the Blue Devils in each of the past two seasons. Last year, FSU won 68-67 as an 8.5-point road dog at Cameron Indoor Stadium. And two years ago, Florida State snapped Duke's 10-game win streak with a 79-74 upset at home. Overall, the Seminoles have covered six of seven vs. Duke. FSU is 9-0 SU at home this year, and 39-6 SU over the past three seasons. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my two other huge winners tonight, including a great college play out of a 14-0 ATS angle, and an NBA Winner.

At 8 pm, our SEC Game of the Month is on the Ole Miss Rebels plus the points over Florida.

At 7:35 pm, our Atlantic Division Game of the Year is on the New Jersey Nets minus the points over New York, as the Nets are a play in three of my NBA revenge systems.

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