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Monday Service Play

Re: Monday Service Play

O C Dooley comp


“1 UNIT” BCS CHAMPIONSHIP SIDE (Louisiana State -3’ versus Ohio State in an 8:20 eastern kickoff on FOX): It has been pretty much deja-vu in the postseason, as teams from the Southeast Conference are 6-2 overall. Of course it was one year ago when Florida from the SEC suffocated Ohio State 41-14 in the national title game. The bottom line is that due to the overall wealth of talent available at the high school level, the SEC in my mind is far and away college football’s best conference. It seems that in sports we go in “cycles”, and right now the SEC cycle is working on the collegiate gridiron. It is the same thing in the NFL where we are in a current American Conference cycle, on the heels of the NFC dominating the Super Bowl for an entire decade. In baseball, it was the senior circuit which dominated for decades, but the best young talent can now be found in the American League. In the NBA it was the Celtics and Michael Jordan’s Bulls that used to have the Eastern Conference at the top, but that has all changed in recent seasons where the best overall talent is in the Western Conference. Getting back to college football, I am fully aware of what happened New Years Day when double-digit underdog Michigan of the Big-10 draw pulled off the upset of SEC opponent Florida. But consider that was one of only two games where the SEC has failed this postseason, and one could argue that Michigan had much more motivation so send retiring head coach Lloyd Carr out a winner. The last time Ohio State took the football field was inside Michigan’s “big house” where the Buckeyes essentially put an end to Carr’s career. But I want all of you to be aware that the week prior to that contest, the Buckeyes lost outright at home against an Illinois contingent that just got trounced in the New Year’s Day Rose Bowl. The biggest problem for teams like Ohio State to deal with is the long layoff between the Ohio State/Michigan rivalry, and the BCS title game. Since the Big-10 is one of the few conferences that does not have a postseason championship, Ohio State one year ago had a massive 51 DAY layoff, and this year is no different. There is no question that the Buckeyes desperately want to regain some national respect against the SEC, on the heels of last year’s debacle, but their prospects were severly hindered a few weeks ago when the team nailed starting cornerback David Washington and reserve Eugene Clifford with violations of team rules. Ohio State’s secondary could not afford to take a hit like that since tonight they will arguably be facing one of the nation’s best wide receiver tandems in LSU’s Early Doucet and Demitrius Byrd who combined on 83 total catches this campaign. I will admit that LSU checks in with 2 losses, but consider those setbacks were decided in a grand total of SIX OVERTIMES. I did some research on recent national championship winning teams, and a long string of them pulled off “escapes” in games that went right down to the wire, which builds character and confidence. Of course tonight’s game is being played inside the Louisiana Superdome, which is very close to the LSU campus. America’s “adopted” NFL team one year ago was the New Orleans Saints who came up short in the NFC Title game. We all got caught rooting for the Saints who were uprooted several seasons back due to the devastating Hurricane Katrina. It is obvious that the city of New Orleans is making a big comeback from that storm, as tonight is the third BOWL game this season being held inside the New Orleans Superdome. It would be fitting to the citizens of this area that LSU wins the national championship, as this most likely is the best shot that New Orleans in any sport has a shot at running the table. One of the critical areas I look at when handicapping football games is SPECIAL TEAMS, where the hometown Tigers have an enormous advantage this evening. LSU’s Patrick Fisher averaged near 44 yards per punt this campaign, while All-SEC placekicker Colt David went 26-of-32 in the field goal category. But the player I will be watching most closely this evening is LSU’s Trindon Holliday who averaged 26 yards per kickoff return, and has WORLD CLASS SPEED. From the database I can tell you for a fact that LSU has successfully covered the spread at a recent 8-1 ATS clip when facing a non-conference opponent. I did some intense research to uncover the following, which speaks volumes on tonight’s project result. Dating back the past 30 YEARS, teams from the dominant SEC Conference are a dazzling 6-1 in national championship games, as long as they are played inside the New Orleans Superdome!

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Re: Monday Service Play

Tony George

Ohio State vs. LSU (NCAAF)
Jan 7, 2008 8:00 PM EST

Play: Ohio State

Ohio State +4 vs. LSU

I cannot ignore some trends in the bigger bowl games. Under estimated teams, a high emphasis on speed versus brawn, and public perception have led to some point spread covers where everyone is scratching their head. I watched LSU's final 2 games of the season, one of them a loss to 8-5 Arkansas, who were soundly beaten by Missouri in the Cotton Bowl, and Tennessee who beat a decent Wisconsin team in a bowl game as well. One can make an argument that Tennessee beat themselves in the SEC title game with 2 costly turnovers, one for a TD that lost them the game. Other than that, Tennessee was in command of that game for 3 1/2 quarters. Hardly a blueprint for LSU to dominate a physical team like Ohio State.

Ohio State returns to the national title game for the second year and the one thing that worries me is the same thing that happened to them last year, over 50 days off between games. I assume they have learned how to oversome that issue with experience on the coaching staff. While the Big 10 is overrated, throw that out a minute. Ohio State has one game they messed up and it was Illinois. Other than that they beat who they were suppose to beat and many times in dominating fashion. They say speed kills, but did anyone watch Michigan light up Florida last week? Clearly Florida was loaded with speed, it did little to help them against a Big 10 foe, who is not as good as Ohio State. While one game has nothing to do with the other, it is a good argument for speed versus brawn.

Both teams are healthy, which is a huge plus for LSU who were missing key players including QB Flynn. That being said, Ohio State is on a mission and have the "no respect" card in their favor. They also have a MONSTER defense allowing 10 ppg all season and 16 ppg their last 3. This is a physical bunch who want to redeem themselves for last years national title game debacle against Florida. LSU's defense, led by now Nebraska coach Bo Pelini has showed signs of weakness, and an inability to stop the run. They are not as dominant as 2006's edition. Ohio State's defense ranks #1 in scoring defense, yards allowed, pass defense and rank #3 in pass defense, Granted the Big 10 does not pass as much as the SEC, but the bottom line is defense wins championships, and I am sticking to my guns in this one for that reason.

LSU is a solid team with playmakers, but they need big plays to make things happen and Ohio State is good at stopping big plays. 3 zone coverage's, man to man and doubles at WR position, and still being able to stop the run is what Ohio State is good at and that is what you need to beat LSU. LSU is also horrible when it comes to penalties, they create their own adversity numerous times in big games. I think this will tip the balance tonight, especially with time off, and a unit that is at times very undisiplined.

All in all, a great game of strategy tonight and I like the more physical team who is back for the second time to make a statement. Played in the Superdome or not, Ohio State pulls off a small shocker as LSU simply has struggled away from home even when winning, and Ohio State clearly have done what it takes since last years BCS championship game to get back here and make things right.

Ohio State 21 LSU 16 - I am grabbing the points

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Re: Monday Service Play

Tony Karpinski

Tulsa vs. Colorado (NCAAB) - Jan 7, 2008 9:00 PM EST

Play: Tulsa
Tulsa + 3 over Colorado The Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS following a S.U. win, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 and 18-8-2 ATS following a win of 20 or more. The Buffaloes are just 3-7 ATS on Monday, 8-20-1 ATS at home vs. a team with a road winning % less than .400, 8-23 ATS vs. a team with a winning % over .600, 5-16 ATS at home and 3-13 ATS following a S.U. win. Tulsa outright!

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