Sunday Service Plays
Re: Sunday Service Plays
NFL: New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Buccaneers -2.5 (Heavy Hitter) -110 | Unit Value: 3
Note: The New York Giants haven't won a playoff game since 2001. That awful streak is likely to continue as they travel to Tampa Bay to play a Bucs team that has faltered a bit with an ailing Garcia. He is much more healthy now and we must remmeber that he has engineered two playoff victories over the Giants in the past six seasons, most recently last year. The Giants lead the league in QB Sacks with 53 this year and that is something to be concerned about. But we do know that Jeff can scramble and he can run the ball if needed. That should help this team in a big way, and the fact is, Garcia has not seen the turf very often this year. But that is not the reason why I love the home team in this one. The Bucs can play a little D themselves and are second in the league in yards allowed (278.4 per game), first in passing defense (170.5) and third in points allowed (16.9). Being from Mississippi, I always like to see the Mannings do well but Archie's youngest has a problem with pressure and he always has. He is going to get plenty of that Sunday. I have seen him often, and I have seen him fail against good D's and I have seen him get on INT Rampages. His 20 thrown this year is almost more than his TD passes. In this hostile environment that Tampa will present I suspect that Eli might make a mistake or two, and that is all that we are going to need. While Tampa Bay has some injury issues, the Giants also could be missing some key players Sunday. Madison, along with center Shaun O'Hara and linebacker Kawika Mitchell, did not practice Wednesday, and Coughlin wouldn't speculate on their status. New York is also without tight end Jeremy Shockey, who suffered a broken leg Dec. 16 against Washington and was placed on injured reserve. This game is going to be very entertaining from a defensive standpoint and if they were playing at a neutral site, I would not be making this play. But they are not, they are at TB, where the Bucs have been dominating the League on D, with 13.5 points per game allowed and 6-1 ATS last 7 in games that mean anything. I am not counting the loss to Carolina for obvious reasons. With this small number to lay, we pretty much just have to win the game and that is something the Giants have not been able to do in these games we call The NFL Playoffs
Re: Sunday Service Plays
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET.
For some reason, "conventional wisdom" seems to be saying that the Giants playing so well last week against the Pats is a NEGATIVE, while Tampa Bay's "non-efforts" the last two weeks (after clinching the NFC South after Week 15), is somehow a POSITIVE. I just don't get it? I'm not the biggest Coughlin fan or Eli fan for that matter, but the Giants have won their last SEVEN away games, going 6-0 ATS on the road, with a non-cover in that London win over the Dolphins. Garcia is being hailed a the "great savior" but he's hardly played since Week 9. There's no doubt he gave Gruden's offense stability at the QB position but over the season's last six weeks, he's thrown a total of just 69 passes, missing two full games and almost all of a third, due to an injury. He'll face a Giant D which still has some issues but ranked No. 1 in sacks with 53 and 8th in rushing D (97.7 YPG). Eli is off a great game vs the Pats (251 yards and four TDPs), Burress (70 catches / 12 TDs) is back healthy at WR (two TDs vs the Pats) and the HUGE Brandon Jacobs, who had 1,009 YR (5.0 YPC) despite missing five games, should find plenty of room against a smallish Tampa Bay defensive front. The Giants have had turnover troubles since Thanksgiving (losing a league-high 16) but I'm not about to handicap the turnover situation. The Giants are NOT an elite team but Tampa Bay doesn't even come close to being an elite opponent. The Giants are making their THIRD straight playoff appearance and hail from the NFC East, where three teams qualified for the playoffs, with the Eagles finishing at 8-8. The Buccs are off a 4-12 season and won the NFC South at 9-7, where the rest of the division went a collective 18-30. Why is Tampa Bay favored? Weekend Wipeout Winner on the NY Giants
Re: Sunday Service Plays
4 unit Tampa -2.5
1.5 unit under 40 Gaints/Tampa
Vegas Sports Informer
2 unit Tulsa -5
4 unit Tulsa -5
5 unit Tampa -2.5
3 Unit Giants +3
Bowling Green/Tulsa Over 76
Double Play—San Diego –10 vs Tennessee
Double Play—San Diego/Tennessee Under 39
Tampa Bay/NY Giants Under 39.5
NFL San Diego Under 39.5 -110
TBay, SDiego, Tulsa
Sharp Betting Sunday
NFL Tampa Bay
NFL San Diego
The P r e s
10 unit NYG +3
The Lock Line
Tapma Bay* (Reg. Play)
Under San Diego (Top Opinion)
Tulsa (Reg. Play)
Re: Sunday Service Plays
FREE CBB PLAY SUNDAY
Cornell @ Duke 5:30 PM EST
Play On: 3* Duke -30
Duke is 67-40 ATS since 1997 as a home favorite of 12 1/2 or more points. Duke is 52-28 ATS since 1997 when playing in January. Cornell is allowing 78.6 points per game overall this year and 80.8 points per game on the road this season. Duke is scoring 86.8 points per game overall this year and 95.5 points per game at home this season. Duke is allowing only 63 points per game overall this year and 59.2 points per game at home this season. Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. We'll play Duke for 3 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Teddy June’s NFL Wildcard Sunday Winner
My 10* NFL Wildcard Sunday Winner is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over the New York Giants. The Buccaneers enter 9-7 SU/ATS and the New York Giants enter 10-6 SU/ATS. Both teams excelled in their current home/away position as Tampa was 6-2 SU at home and New York was 6-1 SU away from home. Tampa has packed it in for the playoffs for several weeks now as they got some rest and got healthy with their playoff position was clinched weeks ago. The bottom line offensively for this Bucs squad has been when Jeff Garcia is healthy they win and when he’s not they struggle. Garcia when healthy this year had a very good, QB rating of 94.6, 2440 passing yards, 13 TD’s, and 4 INT’s. Veteran wide receiver Joey Galloway has had a break out year after having been quiet the last few years, 57 catches, 1014 receiving yards and a tremendous 17.8 yards per catch. The Giants are a team that has been very up and down this year, there are led by the much publicized running attack and defensive line. Their weakness has been the normal late season collapse by Eli Manning. Manning has once again struggled mightily down the stretch of the season and it certainly has not helped that his receiving core has been less than good. Also the loss of Shockey certainly plays a role as he is a big target for defenses and the passing game. The Tampa defense has been stellar at stopping the pass this year ranking number 1 in the NFL against the pass. Overall very strong on defense ranking 2nd in the NFL in total yards allowed and 3rd in the NFL in points allowed. This is the last team a struggling Eli Manning (had a good last game only to fold in the 4th quarter) wants to face. Bucs primary focus coming in will be to stop the run while allowing for the confusing passing coverage’s to take care of itself. Offensively Bucs will bring in a solid balanced attack and should be able to take advantage of a weak Giants secondary. I am very pleased with the way this game setup, Tampa rested its starters and key players the last several weeks and got healthy. Meanwhile, the Giants put in a valiant effort against the Patriots last week and I absolutely love the fact they did. Now they face the game after the Patriots letdown, something that plagued teams all year long in the NFL. If we take a look at the last several weeks of the regular season we see teams the week after playing the Patriots really struggle, Buffalo lost SU/ATS, Philadelphia lost SU/ATS, Baltimore lost SU/ATS, Pittsburgh lost SU/ATS, Jets lost SU/covered ATS, and Miami lost SU/ATS. Giants are the next victim tonight and I expect an inspired effort from a Buccaneers team who has not gotten much respect all year this season in the NFC. My 10* NFL Wildcard Sunday Winner is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.
Teddy June’s NFL Wildcard Total of the Week
My 10* NFL Wildcard Total of the Week is the Tennessee Titans versus the San Diego Chargers Under the Posted Total. Both of these teams success this season has been predicated on their solid defense. Tennessee’s defense especially with a healthy Haynesworth has been stellar, ranking 5th in the NFL in total yards against, 10th against the pass, 5th against the rush and 8th in points allowed. San Diego while statically does not rank as high, this is mostly based on the fact of how vastly this defense has transformed in their recent success. They however do rank 5TH in the NFL in points allowed and have not allowed more than 17 points in a game since 11/18 which is also the last time they lost. The last time these two teams met it squeaked under the total with a big 2nd half from San Diego and it went in overtime. This was mostly due to turnovers, 4 interceptions in total allowed for shorter field position and easier scores. I expect both these teams to come in with the game plan of not letting their young quarterbacks lose the game for them. Rivers and Young have struggled this season and I don’t expect either coach to get to aggressive when each has a strong running attack. Turner does not want to lose this game because he was hired to win this particular game, expect Tomlinson to be the main focal point. While Fisher is known to play ball control and has the running game to do so, he knows his team simply will not be able to compete in any sort of a shootout. That means short passes, a big establishment of the run game and limiting the chances each team will take. Each will look to control the clock and grind this football game out. If Collins goes at quarterback instead of Young I still expect the same game plan. My 10* NFL Wildcard Total of the Week is the Tennessee Titans versus the San Diego Chargers under the Posted Total.
10* Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10* Tennessee and San Diego Under the Posted Total
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Best Bet on Tampa Bay
**TAMPA BAY (-3) 24 NY Giants 14
New York looked good last week in trying to beat New England, but the Tampa Bay is a better team than the Giants on both sides of the ball and that big emotional effort against the Patriots last week could hurt them today. It’s tough to get so emotionally high for consecutive games and the New York has been a pretty inconsistent team in recent years (expecting Eli Manning to play well in consecutive games is a stretch). Manning looked good last week, but the Giants’ quarterback has averaged just 5.6 yards per pass play this season against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback and New York’s offense was just average for the season despite the strong rushing attack (5.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they are actually worse than average when you consider Manning’s 20 interceptions. Tampa Bay is a strong defensive team that allowed just 4.6 yppl with their starters in (they played their backups in the final 6 quarters of the season) to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team, so I don’t expect the Giants to do much offensively in this game even with a healthier version of big play receiver Plaxico Burress playing well in recent weeks.
Tampa Bay’s offense is better than average on the ground (4.3 ypr against teams that would allow 4.2 ypr to an average team) and through the air with Jeff Garcia averaging 6.8 yppp against teams that would allow just 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, the Bucs are 0.4 yppl better than average offensively and Garcia has thrown just 4 interceptions in 322 passes (I exclude his 5 spikes). The Giants are a good defensive team, allowing 4.8 yppl from week 2 on (they had a different starting lineup in week 1 than they did the rest of the season and played horribly in that game against Dallas) to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl.
The Giants’ strength is their defense but Tampa Bay’s offense is just as good and the Bucs have a huge advantage with their offense against the Giants’ mediocre attack. My math model favors Tampa Bay by 7 ½ points and the Giants apply to a negative 32-70-3 ATS playoff situation. I’ll take Tampa Bay in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 (at -1.10 odds or better) or at -2 ½ (at -1.30 odds or less). I prefer -2 ½ at -1.20 or less if you can get it.
SAN DIEGO (-10) 23 Tennessee 13
The Chargers started the season at 5-5 through their first 10 games, but they rallied to win their final 6 games and their late-season run is more indicative of their team than their slow start. The Chargers’ offense rebounded from a slow start to averaged a modest 5.3 yards per play for the season with their first team offense on the field – against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Where the Chargers really improved was on defense and that transformation took place when up and coming star CB Antonio Cromartie joined the starting lineup in week 10. Cromartie had 10 interceptions and 18 passes defended despite starting just 8 games and San Diego’s defense went from mediocre to very good with Cromartie in the starting lineup. The Chargers allowed just 4.5 yppl over their final 8 games, against teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team, and that unit yielded just 240 yards at 3.8 yppl in an overtime win at Tennessee. I don’t expect Tennessee to do much offensively against San Diego’s tough defense with an attack that averaged just 4.9 yppl (excluding their week 17 game against Indy’s backups) against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team.
Tennessee’s defense allowed 4.9 yppl in their first 15 games (once again excluding their game against the Colts) to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense, but their run defense hasn’t been the same since DT Albert Haynesworth was injured in mid-season. Haynesworth missed weeks 10 through 12, week 15 and most of week 17 and the Titans run defense went from great to below bad in those final 8 games. Haynesworth is back in the lineup but I don’t think that he’s close to 100% given that the Titans allowed 4.3 ypr to teams that would average only 3.9 ypr in the 3 recent games in which Haynesworth played following his injury (weeks 13, 14, and 16). Haynesworth played against San Diego in week 14 and the Chargers racked up 149 ground yards at 5.1 ypr in that game. Tennessee’s defense is only 0.2 yppl better than average with Haynesworth not at 100%, but that’s still a bit better than the Chargers’ offense.
Not only does San Diego have a solid overall advantage from the line of scrimmage (thanks to their domination of Tennessee’s offense) but the Chargers are also less likely to turn the ball over given Vince Young’s habit of throwing interceptions (17 on 382 passes) and San Diego’s habit of picking off passes (an NFL best 30 interceptions). Overall, my math model favors San Diego by 9 ½ points after factoring in their defensive improvement and Tennessee’s recent troubles stopping the run (even with Haynesworth). I really don’t have an opinion on the side in this game (I’ll lean with Tennessee at +10 ½ or more), but I do lean with the Under in this game.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
THE SPORTS MEMO ( 17-13)
Bowling Green vs. Tulsa -4.5 O/U 75.5 Recommendation: Tulsa
The Bowling Green Falcons return to postseason play for the first
time since 2004, facing one of the most potent attacks in college
football. This game should be high flying, at least if played on paper.
The Falcons have been one of the top contenders in the MAC
East in recent years, paced by a usually explosive attack and a
questionable defense. That formula returned after an uncharacteristic
19.5 points per game average last season (after averaging
better than 30 points per game in each of the previous five seasons)
despite breaking in new quarterback Tyler Sheehan. Sheehan
has been nothing short of phenomenal in his first year as a
full-time starter, completing 63% of his pass attempts for over
3,100 yards. His seasonal mark of 23 TDs against 11 INTs is solid,
but his form at the end of the season shows his maturation under
center. In his final six games, Sheehan tallied 12 TDs and just two
INTs. While they are a pass first offense and can point to eight different
receivers with at least one TD catch, they are not without a
playmaker on the ground. Converted quarterback Anthony Turner
ran 100 times for 509 yards with nine TDs, and Willie Geter (who
also caught 37 passes) ran 66 times for 427 yards. Their spread
attack has opened opportunities in the rushing department and
they have taken advantage in recording a healthy 5.25 yards per
rush average according to our Accu-Stats numbers. All told, the
offense will head to Mobile with respectable rankings of 42nd in
total offense (18th in passing) and 36th in scoring offense at 32
points per game. Tulsa, however, takes offense to another level.
The Golden Hurricane put up gaudy numbers this season ranking
as the country’s most potent offense in terms of total yards (542
yards per game). The yards were not wasted either as Tulsa scored
nearly 40 points per game and had the highest efficiency of TD
conversions in the country with 70 TDs against seven FGs. In fact,
only two teams (Hawaii and Oklahoma) eclipsed their mark of 70
TDs on the season. Neither defense seems like it will be a deterrent
in this one, at least not according to seasonal averages. Bowling
Green’s opponents have scored an average of 30 points per
game and tallied a total of nearly 415 yards in the process. According
to our Accu-Stats numbers, their opponents enjoy a 5.02 yards
per carry average and can attack downfield at nearly 7.0 yards per
pass attempted. All this while playing in the offensively challenged
MAC East. Tulsa’s opponents have averaged better than 35 points
per game on nearly 470 total yards as they enjoyed a 5.26 yards
per carry average and 7.02 yards per pass attempted. This one figures
to be a shoot out, but with a prohibitive total of over 75 we’d
feel more confident playing a side. We think there is a slight talent
gap between C-USA and the MAC in terms of athletic ability and
even though Tulsa’s defense has been porous, only one team (Central
Florida) has slowed them down enough to where, when they
win, they would not have covered a five-point spread. Take Tulsa
Re: Sunday Service Plays
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEPS: ( 24-6)
Tulsa won the only meeting in ‘89, 45-10. Since that game BG is 5-6 SU but 8-2 ATS vs current CUSA teams incl a 52-35 (-3) win over Memphis in their last bowl (‘04 GMAC). This will be BG’s 3rd bowl under HC Brandon, going 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS, both as the fav. Tul is 6-2 SU & 3-1 ATS vs current MAC schools.HC Graham was at Rice LY and ended a 45 yr drought leading the Owls to their 1st bowl S/’61 where they got drilled by Troy 41-17 in the New Orleans Bowl. This is Tulsa’s 4th bowl in 5 yrs and they are 1-2 SU & ATS (all as dogs). BG faced 3 bowl caliber tms going 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS. They were outgained on avg 431-405 and outscored 40-23. The Hurricane played 5 bowl caliber tms (UCF 2x) going 3-3 SU & ATS outgaining them 480-457 but were outscored by a 37-36 avg. Tulsa has 9 Sr’s among 15 upperclassmen starters while BG has just 5 among 12. BG is 3-2 ATS as an AD TY incl an upset of Minn 32-31 (+14) while UT is 7-5 ATS as an AF (2-3 TY). BG shared the MAC East Title but lost the tiebreaker. They will have had 44 days off while UT has had 36 days to think about its Conf Championship loss BG turned things around TY going 8-4 (best rec’d in MAC) after their 1st losing ssn (4-8) S/‘00. QB Sheehan beat out ret starter Turner, almost doubling Turner’s ‘06 pass yds. Turner was moved to a slash pos and leads the team in rushing. RB Geter was leading the team in rushing as a True, but has been slowed by nagging inj’s although he still played in 11 gms. Barnes leads the team in rec yds in his 1st full yr at the position. WR Partridge is the #2 rec, despite missing 5 with a thumb inj and could return here. The OL has 3 Sr starters incl Rimington finalist C Lichtensteiger & avg 6’4” 295. They did allow 27 sks (5.5%) but opened holes for 4.1 ypc. BG all’d 29.5 ppg (most S/’97) and 205 ypg rushing (4.6) which is the most in over a decade. The DL avg 6’3” 262 and is led by DE Briggs. The LB unit may be without WLB Haneline, who is the #2 tackler despite missing 3 with a leg inj. They have our #85 pass eff def all’g 208 ypg (60%) with a 21-14 ratio. Their bright spot is S Mahone who is #3 in the NCAA in int. They have our #72 off and our #93 D which is off its best gm of the yr (held a Toledo tm avg 33 ppg to 10 pts). BG has our #94 ST, which is actually an improvement as they were ranked last in ‘06! A big reason for their “improvement” is two new kickers in K Vrvilo and P Iovinelli.Tulsa has our #15 off avg 543 ypg & 40 ppg led by QB Smith. HC Graham made a great hire in OC Malzahn who incorporated the no-huddle around Smith allowing him to flourish passing for over 300 yds in all 13 gms (CUSA record). He finished #2 in pts accounted for behind Heisman winner Tebow. He spreads the ball around with 7 rec’s having 26+ catches led by WR Marion who avg 31.9 ypc (#1 NCAA)! The Hurricane run game lost OK transfer Tennial prior to the yr. Adams took over breaking 1,100 yds. The OL lost 4 Sr starters from LY but actually opened up holes for 168 ypg (4.2),the most S/’03. The OL is the biggest in the conf avg 6’3” 312 and is led by the right side of Morsey and Thomas. They have just 1 Sr starter up front and all’d 30 sks (5.8%). Tulsa runs a 3-3-5 def & the 469 ypg all’d is the most S/’97. The DL is led by DE Hopkins and they avg 6’3” 257 which makes them a small but fast group as the unit recorded 25 sks but all’d 196 rush ypg (4.6). The LB corps is the anchor of the D as the top 3 tacklers reside there. Chamberlain & Coleman both rank in the top 20 in NCAA in tkls. Tulsa is getting burned in the secondary ranking #98 in our pass eff D all’g 273 ypg (59%) with a 28-11 ratio. While the off is potent the def has really cost Tul as it ranks #104 all’g 40+ pts in 6 gms. Tulsa has our #96 ST’s & K Tracy who hit 11-12 FG’s LY has hit just 7-12 and att’d just 1 FG in the L/6 gms. The punt unit has a net of 32.9 (#93 NCAA) due to pooch punts by QB Smith. Tulsa switched to the no-huddle off and behind QB Smith they finished #1 in ttl off. The offense avg’d 40 ppg and totaled 35+ pts in 9 gms. Unfortunately their quick strike offense left the defense on the field for extended periods of time and they all’d an avg of 35 ppg and gave up 30+ pts in 9 gms. While not quite as prolific, BG avg’d 32 ppg and did finish the ssn avg 38 ppg the L/4. Both tms also struggle defending the pass with our #85 (BG) and #98 pass eff D’s. The total is high at 75 but this bowl has that history and these teams have topped that total in a combined 7 gms. Sit back relax and enjoy the fireworks.
FORECAST: OVER 75 RATING: 1"
Re: Sunday Service Plays
THE SPORTS MEMO
NY Giants +3 at Tampa Bay O/U 39.5
Recommendation: New YorkThe initial thought with the Giants is going to be they expended too much energy and lost their mojo in their roller coaster loss to the
Patriots last week. We aren’t buying it, and in fact, we feel the full on
effort against the Patriots if anything got quarterback Eli Manning
back to his happy place. Something that if you follow the Giants is
obviously critical. Like the Seattle vs. Washington matchup, there is
a stark contrast in the degree of difficultly with both teams’ schedules.
New York played nine teams with .500 records or better. Six
of those games were against playoff bound squads and in those six,
they averaged 22 ppg. Tampa Bay played just six teams with .500
records or better, and against playoff bound teams, they averaged a
woeful 15 ppg. The key to the game is going to come from the Giants’
defense, which when motivated can cause havoc with its defensive
line. They have the ability to shut down the Buccaneers’ running attack,
which struggled against formidable run defenses. When breaking
down both teams, the numbers suggest Tampa Bay has a superior
defense, but New York is certainly better than average with nine
games of allowing 21 points or less. The offensive advantage goes to
the Giants, who when clicking can score with just about anyone in the
league -- as seen in their game against New England. Tampa Bay’s
output on offense this season was nothing short of mediocre. Take
away the four games against defensively inept Atlanta and New Orleans
and you get a team that averaged just 16 ppg. We also can’t ignore
New York’s solid play on the road, with a 6-2 SU and ATS mark.
The Giants are far from being perfect, especially with the Yin and
Yang of Manning, but even when he struggles, the running attack
(4th in the league) can thrive. Tampa is content playing strategic
football and while the defense is one of the better ones in the league,
it doesn’t outclass New York by any stretch. We’ll side with the better
overall team, coming in playing its best football of the year.
Tennessee NL at San Diego O/U NL
One could argue the difference between Vince Young and Kerry Collins
is only slight, but for the sake of this write-up, we are going to assume
Young is a go this weekend in San Diego. At least that is what head
coach Jeff Fisher leaned towards in the post game news conference.
As for the matchup, both these teams met a month ago in Nashville,
with the Titans controlling much of the game before melting down in
the fourth quarter and overtime. The game was typical for Tennessee
with 30 carries on the ground, Vince Young struggled (121 yards, 2 INTs)
and the Titans defense stole the headlines as they held the Chargers to
three points until halfway through the fourth quarter. The Titans are
designed to play every game close. They don’t blow anyone out and in
their six games against playoff bound teams, they lost by an average of
17-14. San Diego is one of the hottest teams in the league, winning and
covering six straight. Those six games, however, featured no one outside
of Tennessee worth mentioning. When we look at when the Chargers
were in fact tested, we see a couple of things. To start, in their first
ten games (six vs. .500 teams or better), they posted a 5-5 record and
quarterback Philip Rivers threw 11 TDs and 12 INTs. The offense and defense
were solid, but certainly not great as they averaged 22.9 ppg and
allowed 20.9. Now we come to their current run. Their last six games
featured only one team above .500 (Titans) and to no surprise, San Diego
won by an average of 18 points. What we feel you have to ignore is
how bad the Titans look with the ball, because in reality, the Chargers
average only four more yards of total offense per game. Defensively,
Tennessee holds edges at both yards and points allowed, making these
two teams a lot more even than most would assume. In looking at Jeff
Sargarin’s NFL Power Rankings, both squads were an identical 2-3 vs.
the top 10 and 4-4 vs. the top 16. We also won’t ignore the advantage
Tennessee has with Fisher calling the shots. Despite the limitations on
offense, Fisher has played a major factor in them being able to compete
with all comers. Unfortunately, we don’t have a line to go from due to
Young’s day-to-day status, but given that San Diego was a favorite at
Tennessee early in December, you’ll likely see the line come at +7 or
more, which in our opinion is more than enough to make the Titans a play.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Awesome 4-0 Saturday as we nailed our BEST BET of the Pittsburgh/Jacksonville OVER, along with our STRONG OPINION of Seattle and our angles on Pittsburgh and the Seattle/Washington OVER. Let’s make it a perfect wild card round with these picks.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3) VS. New York Giants: The Giants travel down to Tampa Bay to take on a Buc’s team that has not played their regulars for a full game in almost three weeks. The Giants on the other hand come in off a near upset of the Patriots and their confidence surely will be sky high coming into this game. New York matches up very well against the Buc’s in that their ferocious pass rush should wreak havoc against a weak Tampa O-line. QB Jeff Garcia is a proven winner in the postseason but he could be running for his life all game long and when you consider the fact that the Buc’s don’t score much as it is, this could spell big trouble for them here. The Giants are hungry for a win and QB Eli Manning is poised for a good outing to prove the naysayers wrong and grab his first playoff win. This figures to be a low-scoring defensive slugfest that will come down to a late Giants field goal to seal the victory. THE PICK: New York Giants (+3) and UNDER
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-8.5) VS Tennessee Titans: This is a big spread for the postseason jittery Chargers but they are fortunate to be going against a Tennessee bunch that is reeling with injuries on offense and who will struggle to deal with the tremendous pass rush of Shawn Merriman, Philip Daniels and company. Titans QB Vince Young is a game-time decision but word is Kerry Collins will get the start. Also TE Bo Scaife and WR Roydell Williams will miss this game due to injury so even if Young starts, he will have no one to throw to. This game will get ugly quickly and the Chargers can name the score if they wish. THE PICK: ***BEST BET***San Diego Chargers (-8.5) and UNDER (regular opinion)
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Point Train's BUCS/GIANTS WILD CARD WINNER
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3) over New York Giants
Rating: 3 units
TAMPA BAY (-) over NY Giants at 1 pm EST The outcome of this NFC Wild Card contest will come down to quarterback play. And this is one area where the Buccaneers have a major advantage. New York QB Eli Manning is a turnover waiting to happen while Tampa QB Jeff Garcia takes care of the ball better than almost any other quarterback. Manning had a solid outing against New England last week but that was more a fluke than anything else. The eight games prior to last week saw Manning complete just 51% of his passes and throw 10 interceptions compared to just 6 touchdowns. He’ll have his work cut out for him against the NFL’s top-ranked pass defense. The Bucs allow just 170.9 passing ypg and have picked off 16 passes. Garcia has been the perfect QB for HC Jon Gruden’s system, limiting turnovers and taking the big play when it’s there. He owns a 13:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has completed nearly 64% of his passes. Garcia will get plenty of help from RB Earnest Graham, who ran for nearly 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in limited action this year. The Giants have gone to the playoffs each of the last two years under Manning, losing both games. Manning completed just 57% of his passes in those two playoff games for 137 ypg with four interceptions and just two touchdowns. He just doesn’t have what it takes to lead this team any further than the Wild Card round. Ride with the Bucs
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Vegas Experts Tip Of The Day
Though renowned for its offense San Diego has held all six opponents to 17 points or less during its current six-game S/U and ATS win streak. It has scored 23 points or less in five of its last eight contests. Meanwhile Tennessee has scored 17 or less in six of its last eight games while holding four of its last five opponents to 20 or less. TENNESSEE, in off last week's low-scoring win over the Colts, is 7-1 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins this season while SAN DIEGO is 13-4 UNDER in home games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992.
Play on: Under
Re: Sunday Service Plays
North Carolina minus the points at Clemson.
The top-ranked Tar Heels are basically a must-play right now. Not only are they 14-0 on the campaign, but since failing to cash in their first game of the season, they?ve ripped off 11 consecutive spread-covers! And we?re not talking nail-biter covers, either. North Carolina, which averages 92 points per game, has been absolutely pummeling its opponents, winning its last seven games by an average of 23.4 points per outing! All seven wins have been double-digit blowouts, including four victories of 29 points or more.
Now, I know the Tigers are off to a strong start, too, at 12-1. But they haven?t come close to playing an opponent the caliber of the Tar Heels ? in fact, the Tigers lost to the best team they?ve faced (Ole Miss).
Clemson closed last season by going 1-5-2 ATS in the ACC, and the Tigers have lost six in a row to the Heels, going 2-4 ATS.
As long as UNC, which is on a 42-19-1 ATS tear, can keep its big guns Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson out of foul trouble, it should win this one going away. Lay the points with the No. 1 team in the land.
(based on a 1 to a 10 * Rating)
3* NORTH CAROLINA
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Coach Larry Krystkowiak's Milwaukee team doesn't play any defense, losing 7 of 9 games. They played without injured star Michael Redd against the Wizards and trailed by 34 points in the third! "We were going through the motions in the first quarter and we dug ourselves a hole," one player said. Charlotte is also struggling on defense, allowing over 100 points in 5 of 6 games. The last 5 meetings between these teams, the over is 4-1. Don't look for any defense in this one. Play the Bucks/Bobcats over the total!
Look for a wild shootout in the GMAC Bowl between Bowling Green and Tulsa. Both teams are extremely capable offensively, and neither is much good at stopping a quality attack. QB's Sheehan and Smith should each have monster days throwing the ball, and I wouldn't be shocked to see this game end up producing 90 points. Over is the call
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