New Years Day Service Plays

Re: New Years Day Service Plays

WINNING POINTS ( 9-10-1)

OUTBACK BOWL
(January 1 at Tampa)
TENNESSEE over WISCONSIN by 5
When the world saw Florida humiliate Ohio State in the National Championship
game LY a case can be made that the long Buckeye layoff was a major factor – the
Gators extended their season a full two weeks longer, and as such were much closer
to their prime playing rhythm. There was another game LY that brought a similar
setting to the table, when Wisconsin gutted out an outright win over Arkansas
(which lost to Florida in the SEC title game) on January 1st. Did that game tell us
that the layoff, which is matched in this game, is not all that important? Not really.
Despite winning on the scoreboard, the Badgers were badly pushed around at
the line of scrimmage – total offense was 368-201, and a team that prides itself on
physical play up front was actually held to minus yards rushing. The truth is that
in two games in which SEC teams played two weeks longer into the season than
Big 10 opponents, the SEC side dominated each game. That becomes the starting
point for this one but the rest is precarious, largely because of Tennessee’s inconsistency
through this season (three losses by 14 points or more, and had to survive
missed field goals down the stretch by both Vanderbilt and Kentucky that would
have turned those results around), and recent bowl performances (three losses in
double figures in the last four trips). But Wisconsin may bring even less to the
table, losing at Illinois and Penn State in the only road games against bowl teams,
and not facing anyone near the likes of Vol QB Erik Ainge this season. TENNESSEE
31-26.


COTTON BOWL
(January 1 at Dallas)
ARKANSAS over MISSOURI by 1
Since the BCS first began its money-making enterprise, few teams have been treated
as poorly as Missouri. The Tigers only lost to one team all season, that being
Orange Bowl entrant Oklahoma, and beat BCS-bound Illinois and Kansas on neutral
fields. Why did the latter two get better invitations? Ask the money guys. What
it should do is put an extra motivation into the preparation for Gary Pinkel and his
team for this game, but that is not always a good thing – for a program making its
first New Year’s day appearance under their coach (it took seven seasons), maintaining
the proper composure to use that energy for something positive can be a
question. But that is only one of many questions in this one. While we believe that
Arkansas can get Darren McFadden untracked vs. an only average Tiger defense, in
what will likely be his last game as a Razorback, there are some defensive questions.
It has nothing to do with the post-Houston Nutt transition, as defensive coordinator
Reggie Herring takes over as head man for this game, but rather – is this pass
defense any good? Yes, we see what the numbers say; they rate 5th in the nation in
the key pass efficiency defense numbers, usually the best measure. But take a look
at the opposition. Even coming from the tough SEC they faced one of the weakest
clusters of passing offenses that could be imagined at that level. We will still give
them enough benefit of the doubt to call for the mini upset in this one, but do not
have the full confidence that the way they match up vs. Chase Daniel really shows
in their numbers. ARKANSAS 31-30.


CAPITAL ONE BOWL
(January 1 at Orlando)
FLORIDA over MICHIGAN by 8
Yes, there would be a sentimental part of us that might like to see a nice guy like
Lloyd Carr get a win in his final game as Michigan coach. But we are also realists
enough to know that games can only be won on emotion if there are not major tactical
issues. There certainly are here. While the Wolverines will finally have Mike
Hart and Chad Henne both healthy in the backfield for the first time since
September, which makes them one of the best offenses in the nation, that only supplies
half of the answer here. The rest must come from whether or not defensive
coordinator Ron English and his players can do something that we have not seen a
Michigan defense do in a long time – stop a quality spread offense led by a mobile
QB. In the last three bowls games we have seen the opposition ring up 38, 32 and
32 against them, and after seeing the way that Appalachian State and Oregon made
this unit look slow back in September, we can only wonder how many holes that
Urban Meyer might find for Tim Tebow and some skill people with great quickness
to exploit. The fact that Michigan’s defensive numbers got better down the
stretch was more a result of the competition than any special growing up that
might have taken place for this unit. The bottom line is that we see an explosive
affair in which neither side figures to stop the other very easily, and with two savvy
quarterbacks that take good care of the ball, opportunities should turn into points.
FLORIDA 38-30.


GATOR BOWL
(January 1 at Jacksonville)
TEXAS TECH over VIRGINIA by 9
Once upon a time, playing in the ACC meant going up against great QB’s and
sophisticated passing attacks. Not this season. It was a flat-out awful year for
offenses in that conference, and a big part of it was a lack of QB play. And if
Virginia did not even face the best of them, Matt Ryan of Boston College, then just
how much weight do we attach to those solid defensive numbers of the Cavaliers?
Not a whole lot, that is what, especially when there was nothing special about the
offenses that they faced in non-conference competition either. That means that
they are not exactly well-prepared for facing the best passing attack in the land, and
that we are likely to see some shock from a defensive huddle that has rarely been
over-matched this season. Even more shock comes from the fact that Mike Leach
has had ample time to tweak his playbook, as has been his history in bowl games,
and that means even more ways to get the ball to Michael Crabtree, who somehow
never got into the Heisman hunt despite a remarkable freshman season in which
he caught 125 passes, good for 1,861 yards and 21 touchdowns. And while the Red
Raiders are not here because of their defense note that there is reason to at least
expect a little spark from that side of the ball – this may end up being a one-game
playoff for interim defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill to show why he should
get that job full time. Cavaliers are only here because of a fluky 5-0 record in games
decided by two points or less, and those dice can go cold vs. this class. TEXAS
TECH 37-28.


ROSE BOWL
(January 1 at Pasadena)
SOUTHERN CAL over ILLINOIS by 17
For as excited as Ron Zook and his team are to have earned this berth so early in
the building process, it may ultimately become one of those “be careful what you
wish for” moments. The reward of being in the Rose Bowl comes with the challenge
of taking on the team that is playing the best football of any in the nation
right now, and once that will cause them some matchup problems. The Illinois
surge has been a result of Zook and Juice Williams arriving at the same time, with
the latter providing a mobile look at QB that has caused real problems for slower
defenses in the Big 10. That included the stunning upset at Ohio State, when the
Buckeye defense was repeatedly a half step away from making plays against
Williams. But now that can be corralled by one of the fastest defenses in the nation,
and one that has experience against such attacks. And it is a defense that was kicking
its game into a higher gear down the stretch, once they were able to get everyone
healthy again. The speed at LB makes a particular difference here – shut down
the Illinois ground game and this offense has a difficult time challenging through
the air, where they rated 82nd nationally in passing efficiency. But even with the
Trojan defense dominating the game the pointspread still looms large, because for
once Pete Carroll does not have a lot of playmakers on offense - Southern Cal only
had one touchdown all season on a play of 50 yards or more. There is still enough
to merit the call here, however, particularly with the two week edge in playing
rhythm, with their win over U.C.L.A. coming long after Illinois had finished up
vs. Northwester. SOUTHERN CAL 31-14.


SUGAR BOWL
(January 1 at New Orleans)
GEORGIA over HAWAII by 15
In our Rose Bowl analysis we wrote about Illinois being in a “be careful what you
wish for” setting, and we can begin this one the same way. By going undefeated,
while others around the nation were stumbling, June Jones and his Warriors have
made their way into a BCS bowl. That is great for the program, but this result will
not be. Now they have to take on a Georgia team has been outstanding down the
stretch, which is what was expected of a young but talented team that needed some
time to develop. And the bottom line is that Hawaii is overmatched. Instead of
using Colt Brennan and that deep corps of WR’s to wear down lesser opponents,
Jones now has to deal with a defense that not only has the personnel to rush
Brennan, but to also cover man-to-man all over the field. And what can happen
when this offense faces any kind of challenge away from home? The truth is that
we do not know, because it did not happen this season – the only trip to face a bowl
team was that last-play escape at mediocre Nevada when Brennan sat out most of
the way. But note that Brennan was intercepted four times in an overtime win at
San Jose State, and five more at Nevada. Those are ominous signs when stepping
up against this class of defense. They headaches get worse when Georgia has the
ball, when Knowshon Moreno and Thomas Brown pound away against an undersized
defensive front, which in turn means that Matthew Stafford has plenty of
time in play action to throw deep down the field. Hope the Warriors enjoy the
Cajun food. GEORGIA 42-27.

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Re: New Years Day Service Plays

EROCKMONEY ( 10-9 SO FAR)


1/1 - Outback - Wisconsin (+3.5) v. Tennessee

Tennessee has struggled in bowl games of late and I expect this one to be no different. Wisconsin is a gritty team that will put up a fight to the end. This is the fifth consecutive year Wisconsin has met up with an SEC foe in the bowl game. Wisconsin upset Arkansas and Auburn the last two years and covered agianst Georgia the year before. This one will be close.

Pick: Tennessee by 1

Status: Recommended Play (rank - 9th)

1/1 - Cotton - Arkansas (+3) v. Missouri

Missouri went from the number ranked team after the regular season to out of the BCS. How is that posible? This what happens in the silly world of college football. Argument for one team (LSU over Georgia) don't apply to others (Missouri - Kansas). Missouri has packed in and the Razorback outsatnding pair of RB's will lead them to victory.

Pick: Arkansas by 2

Status: Recommended Play (rank - 11th)

1/1 - Gator - Virginia (+6) v. Texas Tech

The Red Raiders are up and down from week to week. This team has struggled outside of the Big 12 the last couple of seasons, especially as a favorite. I love the Cavaliers getting the points and believe they have an excellent chance to pull the upset.

Pick: Virginia by 1

Status: Recommended Play (rank - 3rd)

1/1 - Capital One - Florida (-10) v. Michigan

Michigan struggled with unconventional offensive systems this year and the Gators offense gives everyone problems. The Gators are probably the third best team in the country, better than eight of the teams in the BCS. Tebow and company will dominate and cruise to a victory.

Pick: Florida by 19

Status: Recommended Play (rank - 18th)

1/1 - Rose - USC v. Illinois

It is joke that the Illini are even in this game. USC is the best team in the nation, as expected. Yet, I can't bring myself to take the Trojans. Too many things are pointig their way, almost too good to be true.

Pick: USC by 14

Status: No Play

1/1 - Sugar - Georgia v. Hawaii

Boise St. keeps runnign through my mind when I look at this game. I'm intrigued by Hawaii enough to lay off.

Pick: Georgia by 10

Status: No Play

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DR BOB ( 10-9)


2 Star Selection
**Wisconsin 31 Tennessee (-3.0) 27 (at Outback Bowl at Tampa) 08:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 These two teams are very similar, as both teams are good offensively, mediocre on defense and have very good special teams. Tennessee averaged 5.7 yards per play for the season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team), but Erik Ainge improved a bit once the broken pinky on this throwing hand was completely healthy after the week 5 bye. That attack will be going up against a mediocre Wisconsin defense that allowed 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. I actually rate the Badgers as 0.2 yppl worse than average after losing starting CB Allen Lanford and DT Jason Chapman late in the season. But, star LB Elijah Hodge should be at full strength after missing most of the last two games with minor injuries.

Wisconsin’s offense should also move the ball well. The Badgers averaged 5.8 yppl in the regular season against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, but Wisconsin was slightly worse (by 0.1 yppl) in the final 6 games without big play receiver Luke Swan, who will also miss this game. The loss of running back P.J. Hill will have no impact at all since Hill’s compensated yards per rush (5.0 ypr against teams that would allow 4.9 ypr to an average back) is the same as that of Zach Brown (4.9 ypr against teams that would allow 4.8 ypr), who took over for Hill the final 3 games of the regular season. Lance Smith-Williams and his 6.2 ypr is also available, so the Badgers could be even better running the ball without Hill. Tennessee’s defense was only 0.2 yppl better than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl), so the Badgers have an advantage when they have the ball.

Neither quarterback is interception prone, having thrown 10 picks each, and my math model favors Tennessee by 3 points in this game - which is what the line is. The reason for the play on Wisconsin is a 16-0 ATS subset of a 37-8-1 ATS bowl situation and a 32-7 ATS bowl angle that both favor Wisconsin. The Badgers played below expectations this season (4-7 ATS) but they were still good enough to make it to one of the New Year’s Bowl games. Good teams that under-performed in the regular season tend to improve during the month-plus of bowl preparation, as teams playing in major bowl games (the 5 BCS Bowls plus the other New Year’s Day Bowls – the Outback, Cotton, Citrus, and Gator) are 18-8 ATS as underdogs if they had a losing pointspread record in the regular season when facing a team that has a winning pointspread mark (12-4 ATS against teams that were 3 games or more above .500 ATS, as the Vols were).

I’ll play this game on the basis of the strong technical indicators and I’ll take Wisconsin in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points (-115 odds or less) or more.




2 Star Selection
**Hawaii 32 Georgia (-8.5) 31 (at Sugar Bowl) 05:30 PM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 Unbeaten Hawaii had some close calls against a few bad teams, but the Warriors raised their level of play against the good teams that they faced and they have a pretty good shot at an outright upset in this game. Hawaii played their toughest 4 opponents in their final 4 games of the year, facing Bowl teams Fresno State, Nevada, Boise State and Pac-10 rep Washington, who would have been a bowl team if they didn’t face the toughest schedule in the nation. In those 4 games the Warriors averaged 7.5 yards per play while allowing only 5.3 yppl. Those are very impressive numbers considering that those 4 opponents would combine to average 5.9 yppl and allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. For the season Hawaii’s potent attack was 1.5 yppl better than average (7.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack), but they were 2.2 yppl better than average in those final 4 games when challenged by decent teams. Hawaii has the type of offense that can move the ball even on good defensive teams, so they are relatively better when facing good defenses than they are against bad defensive teams since the level of opposing defense doesn’t have as much impact on Hawaii’s attack. That has certainly been the case with Colt Brennan, who was 1.7 yards per pass play better than average for the season (8.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp) but was 2.1 yppp better than average against the 6 mediocre or better than average pass defenses he faced (8.1 yppp against Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Fresno, Boise and Washington – who would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback). Georgia has a very good pass defense that yielded just 5.5 yppp in 11 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average team. Colt Brennan is not fazed by good defensive teams, as he threw for nearly 500 yards and averaged 8.8 yppp against Boise State – the best pass defense he faced this season. Boise, at 0.5 yppp better than average defending the pass, is not quite as good as Georgia’s pass defense (the Bulldogs are 0.9 yppp better than average), but Brennan faced some very good pass defenses last season and thrived. Brennan threw for 9.9 yppp against the 2006 unbeaten Boise State team that was 0.8 yppp better than average against the pass and he averaged 8.6 yppp combined last season in games against the good pass defenses of Alabama, Boise State, Oregon State and Arizona State. Those teams would have combined to allow 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback, which is pretty close to how good Georgia’s defense is this year. That included Brennan’s 542 yards at 11.8 yppp in the bowl game against an Arizona State defense that was 0.6 yppp better than average. My math model projects 6.9 yppp for Brennan in this game but that number would be 7.4 yppp based on his habit of playing relatively better against better defensive teams. Hawaii has scored 28 points or more in 25 consecutive games and the Warriors are likely to top 30 points in this game.

What is often overlooked is how good Hawaii’s defense has been this season. The Warriors didn’t have to flex their defensive muscle too often, as they played a lot of bad offensive teams, but that defense played great when challenged by good offensive teams in their final 3 games. The only better than average offensive teams that Hawaii faced were Nevada, Boise State and Washington, who would combine to average 6.0 yards per play against an average defensive team. The Warriors finished the season against those 3 good offensive teams and held them to a combined 5.2 yppl. For the season Hawaii yielded 5.0 yppl in 10 games against Division 1A opposition that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Georgia’s offense was only 0.6 yppl better than average in their 11 games against D-1A competition with Matt Stafford in the game (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl), so the Bulldogs only have a 0.3 yppl advantage over Hawaii’s defense and I actually think the Warriors’ stop unit is just as good as Georgia’s offense when they are forced to play at fully intensity – as they will be in this game.

My math model favors Georgia by only 5 points even with a 2.2 points edge for projected turnovers and a 3.9 points advantage for the Bulldogs in special teams and Hawaii is 50/50 to win this game straight up if they play this game at the level they’ve played against other good teams that they’ve faced. This game is similar to the situation that unbeaten WAC champion Boise State was in last season as a 7 point underdog to Oklahoma (a 43-42 winner). While Hawaii played a pretty easy schedule they did play their best against the best teams they faced and they have the confidence that they can beat anyone. Teams with 1 loss or fewer are 22-6 ATS in bowl games as underdogs of 7 points or more (6- 0 ATS the last 4 years), so getting a touchdown or more with a team that is not used to losing has been a pretty good bet. I realize that Georgia played their best ball down the stretch, but they aren’t likely to continue to play at such a high level after having more than a month off. In fact, teams that finished the regular season by covering 3 or more consecutive games are just 40% ATS in bowl games since 1980 (51-76-2 ATS) when not facing a team also on a 3 game spread win streak.

I’ll take Hawaii in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more.





Strong Opinion
Florida (-10.0) 37 Michigan 22 (at Capital One Bowl - Orlando) 10:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 Florida is the best team in the nation despite their 3 losses and the Gators spread attack should be no match for a Michigan team that was torched by the similar spread offenses of Appalachian State and Oregon early in the season. Florida’s offense is easily the best in the nation, as the Gators averaged 210 yards on the ground at 5.8 yards per rushing play while Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow averaged a ridiculous 9.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, Florida averaged a stunning 7.3 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while averaging 5.5 yppl or more against every team they faced. Michigan’s defensive numbers are good for the season, as the Wolverines yielded 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. However, spread offenses with good running quarterbacks (i.e. Appalachian State and Oregon) gave the Wolverines trouble as Appalachian averaged 5.9 yppl and scored 34 points while Oregon racked up 610 total yards at 8.1 yppl and had 32 points at the half before calling off the dogs in a 39-7 victory at Ann Arbor. I’m sure Michigan will try to devise ways to defend the spread better than they did in those two games, but my math model projects 6.9 yppl and 38 points for Florida in this game if Michigan plays as well defensively as they did overall this season.

Michigan’s offense just isn’t good enough to keep up, as the Wolverines were 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). Michigan was 0.1 yppl worse than average with running back Mike Hart, quarterback Chad Henne, and WR Mario Manningham all playing, but that’s still not good enough. Running against Florida is not easy (the Gators allowed just 3.8 yprp to teams that would average 4.9 yprp aginst an average team), but Henne and Manningham should have pretty good success against a sub-par Gators’ pass defense that allowed 6.2 yppp this season to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average defensive team. Michigan will probably be too conservative to take advantage of the only match-up that may work for them in this game and my math model projects 346 total yards at 5.1 yppl if they throw the ball a bit more than they run it instead of running it 53% of the time as they normally do.

In addition to dominating this game in total yards the Gators also have much better special teams than Michigan does and my math model favors Florida by 17 points. I’d like to play Florida here but the Gators apply to a negative 36-67-1 ATS Bowl angle that will keep me off of this game as a Best Bet. I’ll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -10 points or less and I’ll lean with the Gators if the line goes higher than 10 points.


Missouri (-3) vs Arkansas: My math favors Arkansas and the angles favor Missouri. I’ll call for Missouri by 3 points.

Texas Tech (-6) vs Virginia: I lean slightly with Texas Tech.

USC (-13 ½) vs Illinois: I lean slightly with Illinois.

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Re: New Years Day Service Plays

VEGAS HOTSHEET ( 10-15 SO FAR)

Tuesday, January 1st
OUTBACK BOWL - 11:00am ET ESPN
463 Wisconsin 34
464 Tennessee 35
WISCONSIN +3½


COTTON BOWL - 11:30am ET FOX
465 Arkansas 27
466 Missouri 48
MISSOURI -3


CAPITAL ONE BOWL - 1:00pm ET ABC
467 Michigan 27
468 Florida 29
MICHIGAN +10


GATOR BOWL - 1:00pm ET CBS
469 Texas Tech 48
470 Virginia 28
TEXAS TECH -6


ROSE BOWL - 5:00pm ET ABC
471 Illinois 17
472 USC 38
USC -13½


SUGAR BOWL - 8:30pm ET FOX
473 Hawaii 42
474 Georgia 41
HAWAII +9

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Re: New Years Day Service Plays

MARC LAWRENCE BOWL PREDICTIONS: (8-13)-- 2-12 LAST 14


Outback Bowl
Wisconsin by 8

Cotton Bowl
Missouri by 1

Capital One Bowl
Michigan by 3

Gator Bowl
Virginia by 7 *BEST BET*

Rose Bowl
USC by 16

Sgar Bowl
Hawaii by 3

AWESOME ANGLE
OF THE WEEK

PLAY AGAINST the Heisman
Trophy winning team in a bowl
game that allows 3.0 > yards per
rush vs. an opponent that has
won 15 > of its last 22 games.
PLAY AGAINST:FLORIDA GATORS


HEISMAN HEX

ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 11-1 (91%)


5* BEST BET
Michigan over Florida by 3
The last image of Michigan head coach Lloyd Carr that most
people have in their mind’s eye is that of a tired and beaten
man standing in a cold November rain, watching helplessly
as arch-rival Ohio State squashed his Wolverines to claim
the BIG 10 title and a trip to the Rose Bowl. That defeat ran
Carr’s record against OSU’s Jim Tressel to an unacceptable 1-6
and prompted the 13-year skipper to call it quits. Michigan
has since hired West Virginia’s Rich Rodriguez to be the
new man in Ann Arbor but the UM brass have given Carr
one fi nal opportunity to leave as a winner when he leads
the Maize-and-Blue against defending national champion
Florida today. Carr’s counterpart, Gator head coach Urban
Meyer, won last year’s BCS title in just his second season at
Gainesville and steered his team to a 9-3 fi nish in ’07 with
some help from Heisman Trophy-winning QB Tim Tebow.
Florida’s season was strong enough to convince the linemaker
to install the Gators as 10-point favorites over Michigan,
the fi rst time since 1998 that the Wolverines will be taking
double digits. Meyer can claim a top-notch 26-2 SU record
in his career vs non-conference foes, as well as a 13-1 SU
& 11-3 ATS log when playing with rest, but those numbers
aren’t that superior to Carr’s 10-2 ATS mark as a dog versus
an opponent off back-to-back wins – numbers that sweeten
to 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS if Michigan comes in off an ATS loss.
Somewhat surprising is the stat that Heisman Trophy-winning
teams are a mere 7-18 ATS as bowlers since 1980, and an even
better 1-11 ATS when performing under the guidelines of
our AWESOME ANGLE (see page 2). But here’s what we think
is the most important number of all: Lloyd Carr has NEVER
lost 3 consecutive games SU, fashioning a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS
record when playing off consecutive defeats. With a month
off for key offensive players like QB Chad Henne and RB Mike
Hart to heal late-season injuries, look for Michigan to cap its
nation-leading 33rd straight bowl appearance by winning
one for the Gipper.


4* BEST BET
Hawaii over Georgia by 3

Ladies and gentlemen, step right up and meet the Rodney
Dangerfi elds of college football circa 2007, the University of
Hawaii. Despite blowing away opponents en route to a 12-0
season, the Warriors’ perfect record earned them just a 10th
place ranking in the corrupt world of the BCS – and a chance
to take on a ‘real football team’ when they meet Georgia on
January 1st. Mark Richt’s Bulldogs did close out the season at
10-2, a ledger that includes impressive wins over SEC powers
Florida and Auburn (plus a sixth straight beating of intrastate
rival Georgia Tech). Even so, does Hawaii’s weak schedule and
Georgia’s SEC pedigree justify a near-double digit line? We
don’t think so. Richt has overpowered nearly all non-conference
opposition during his seven-year stint, winning 29 of 31 games
outright, but he’s struggled to a 6-12 ATS mark when favored
against non-SEC foes by 7 or more points. Meanwhile, WAC
bowl dogs are a solid 12-5-1 ATS – including 6-0-1 if they scored
20 or more points in their previous contest – and undefeated
bowlers are a spotless 5-0 when taking 8 or more points. The
real ace in the hole happens to be Hawaii QB Colt Brennan and
his 3rd-ranked offensive unit. When you’re backing an outfi t
that’s averaging 46 points and 529 yards per game, you can
be assured of one thing: should the Warriors fall behind, the
back door will be wide open all game long. One last thought
to ponder… Hawaii has scored 35 or more points in all but one
game this season, and in 23 of their last 25 since last year. New
Year’s Day (or later) bowl dogs that put 35 or more points on
the scoreboard are 22-0 ATS since 1980! Kipa Mai.


3* BEST BET

Wisconsin over Tennessee by 8

Tennessee HAS to be disappointed heading into this matchup.
After landing in the SEC Championship game, the Vols got to
square off against an LSU squad missing several key players
due to injury. Tennessee controlled most of that game and
led, 14-13, with just 10 minutes remaining. That’s when Vol
QB Erik Ainge went into full-blown choke mode, tossing
one interception that was returned for the go-ahead TD
and another pick deep in LSU territory that slammed the
door on a late scoring opportunity. By contrast, Wisconsin
will show up in Tampa buoyed by the knowledge that star
RB P. J. Hill may be healed enough from a leg injury to start
for the Badgers. Hill, who missed 13 of the last 15 quarters
of the regular season, performed so well in recent practices
that head coach Bret Bielema commented, “P. J. has been as
good as we’ve seen him since the time of the injury and we’re
excited about that.” We’re excited about Wisconsin’s chances,
too: the Badgers bring a superb 21-4 SU record under Bielema
to their ninth bowl appearance in the past 10 seasons – along
with some outstanding ATS credentials. The dog in the last 8
UW bowl games stands 7-1, the Badgers are 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS
as bowlers since ’94 and BIG 10 bowl dogs are 20-9-1 versus
a foe off a SU loss (11-2-1 against a less than .750 opponent).
Despite Hill’s possible return to the Badger offense, the real key
in this game lies on the defensive side of the ball. Wisconsin
has held fi ve opponents to season low – or 2nd low – yards
this season while Tennessee’s stop unit was gashed for 500 or
more yards four times in 2007 (Vols allowed 8 ypg more than
they gained in 2007). Big Orange has also tasted little success
in recent postseason play, going just 2-5 SUATS in their last
seven tries and losing 20-10 as 4-point favorites against Penn
State last year. If things go as expected, Wisky coach Bielema
– who sports some of the sleekest gameday eyewear since
Chuck Amato led NC State – should like what he sees. We’re
donning red for today’s game and fully expect to ‘jump around’
after the Badgers claw their way to the outright win.

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ANDY ISKOE COLLEGE BOWL SELECTIONS ( 7-13 SO FAR )


Jan 1 Outback Bowl 5 Star Wisconsin over Tennessee

Jan 1 Cotton Bowl 4 Star Arkansas over Missouri

Jan 1 Capital One Bowl 2 Star FLORIDA over Michigan

Jan 1 Gator Bowl 2 Star Virginia over Texas Tech

Jan 1 Rose Bowl 3 Star Illinois over USC

Jan 1 Sugar Bowl 2 Star Hawaii over Georgia

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MTI / KILLER SPORTS:

COLLEGE SYSTEM OF THE WEEK

Play ON a Bowl underdog
of 8 points or less with
28+ days rest off a SU win
in its last game and an
underdog SU win before
that.

SYSTEM ANALYSIS
With the 2007-08 College Bowl Season really
kicking off this week and weekend we are
finally able to share one of our Bowl POWER
SYSTEMS that is active for an upcoming Bowl
Game.
On Friday December 28th the Champs Sports
Bowl will be held in Orlando Florida with Big 10
Representative Michigan State facing Boston College
from the ACC. This match up is not the only
one this system qualifies this Bowl Season.
The Outback Bowl on January 1st has the
Wisconsin Badgers playing the Tennessee Volunteers
and this Power System is active in that Bowl
Game as well.
This particular POWER SYSTEM is not only
strong because of its perfect 10-0 ATS record since
1995 but as you can see from the chart below the
qualifying teams average covering the spread by
more than 15 points (15.9) per game.
The POWER SYSTEM itself is simple, what
we are doing is backing a Bowl team that has been
installed as a touchdown or less underdog who is
coming in off two SU wins including a momentum
and confidence building upset victory.
With the POWER SYSTEM parameters met
we will make this week’s PRO INFO SPORTS
College Football POWER SYSTEM of the Week
Play ON Michigan State plus the points in the
Champs Sports Bowl

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CKO

OVER (60) in the Michigan-Florida game [Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1 in Orlando]—Gators’ spread too speedy for Wolverine defense, while QB Henne & RB Hart healthier now than much of the regular season

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WILD BILL

Michigan + 9 1/2 (2 units) Wolverines in a state of flux, except they play vs Mr. Heisman-Jinx who's coming off a slightly broken hand. Wolverine Seniors want this!

Wisconsin + 3 (1 unit) Badgers undervalued, RB should be healthy to beat over-rated Vols

Illinois + 13 1/2 (3 units) Zook looking to win this one straight up and Illini quite capable.

Missouri -3 (3 units) Stronger offense vs a club with acting HC in Herring, not enough. Maclin the difference with special teams

Over 50 1/2 Illini-USC (5 units) QB Williams for Illini can give USC fits.

Over 69 Hawaii-Georgia (1 unit) QB for Hawaii could riddle Dawg secondary, QB for Dawgs also could have fun vs Rainbows.

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Alex Smart

Missouri -3.0 / 1 units

Texas Tech -5.5 / 1 units


Ben Lewis

Michigan +10.5 (-110) / 3 units

Texas Tech Virginia o58.0 (-110) / 3 units

Illinois / USC o48.5 (-110) / 3 units


The P r e z

Missouri -3.0 (-110) / 10 units

Texas Tech-6.0 (-110) / 3 units

Texas Tech /Virginia o58.0 (-110) / 3 units

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Tony Mathew's Free College Basketball Selection for January 1, 2008.

Matchup: Cincinnati vs. Louisville

Selection: Louisville -14 (-110)

Explanation: We will lay the points with Louisville as they face-off against Cincinnati in Tuesday's College Basketball contest.

Louisville has the much better offense. Louisville (at home) is scoring an average of 74.4 points per game, while Cincinnati (on the road) is scoring an average of only 60.5 points per game. To say the least, Louisville has the much better offense.

Louisville also has the better defense. Louisville (at home) is allowing opponents to score an average of only 57.6 points per game, while Cincinnati (on the road) is allowing opponents to score an average of 71 points per game. It's clear that Louisville has a huge advantage on defense.

Louisville is 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games against Big East Conference teams, while Cincinnati is 7-21-4 ATS in their last 32 games against Big East Conference teams.

Take Louisville -14!

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Larry Ness | CFB Side

triple-dime bet466 Missouri -3.0 vs Arkansas

Analysis:
Arkansas has come a long way since opening the year 0-3 in the SEC, ending the regular season with triple-OT win at LSU. Since the final game of the regular season, Arkansas has made plenty of headlines off the field. First, Houston Nutt decided to leave his post as head coach and take over at Ole Miss. Then, on December 11th, Bobby Petrino resigned as head coach of the Atlanta Falcons to fill the void left by Nutt. DC Reggie Herring will coach the Razorbacks in the Cotton Bowl. Missouri was one win away from a national title game appearance but lost to Oklahoma (for the second time TY) in the Big 12 title game. Missouri really deserved a BCS bid but was left out of the mix. Excluding Oklahoma, Missouri scored 36-plus points on EVERY opponent in '07, going 11-0 vs any school not based in Norman, Oklahoma! Daniel (4,170 YP / 69.7% / 33-10 ratio) was great at QB and when healthy, as he is now, Temple is an explosive RB. TE Rucker (81) and Coffman (51) are a deadly duo and freshman WR Maclin (9 TDs receiving, 4 rushing and 3 on kick returns) is just SPECIAL! While McFadden (1,725 yards) is the nation's best RB and Jones (1,117 / 9.1 YPC!) is a star in the making, QB Casey Dick has MAJOR limitations. His ratio went from 9-6 LY to 18-9 TY but he didn't reach 1,500 YP on the season, topping 200 yards in a game against only North Texas (Daniel topped 300 yards in EIGHT games!). The Missouri D will have no worries with Dick and over the season's final nine games, allowed just 101 YPG and 3.3 YPC on the ground. The Arkansas D allowed good but not great passing teams like Ala, Ky, Sou Car, Tenn and LSU to average 40.2 PPG. Just imagine what Daniel and Co. are capable of. Arkansas also has a terrible bowl history, going 3-12 SU (4-11 ATS) since '79, including a 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS on New Year's Day. Let's also note that so far this year, bowl teams playing after losing their head coach prior to the game, are now 0-5 SU with Fresno's win over Ga Tech (my 20* Underdog GOY!). LEGEND Play on Missouri.

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Ben Burns' BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR!! ***6-2 L8***

Under USC

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Burns

Roast----Arkansas

Bowl GOY----Georgia

Bowl TOY----under USC/Ill

NHL best bet---Sabres

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Brandon Lang

20 DIME - Southern California

10 DIME - Missouri

5 Dime - Missouri-Arkansas Over

5 Dime - Michigan

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Vegas Experts Tip Of The Day
3 winning months in a row
December 18-11
Nov 17-10
Oct 15-10

50-31 last 3 months

Under Illi./Usc

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Wolkosky Milan

373-290-15 last one hundred twenty eight days
43-21-2 last ten days!
5-3 Yesterday

Today:

10* TENNESSEE -1.5
10* MISSOURI -3
10* MICHIGAN +10.5
10* USC -13.5
10* ILL/USC UNDER 50.5

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Alex Smart

Texas Tech -5.5


Mike Rose

Michigan +10.5


Pac Star

Michigan / Florida OVER 59


Ethan Law

Missouri -3

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Advantage Plays 4* Best Bet for the Rose Bowl Posted Today at 02:06 AM

You should look into getting this early as the weather forecast will drop this like a rock...


4**** Best Bet/ USC UNDER 50

I am running behind and will not be able to provide the usual three paragraphs of analysis, but I was playing this one UNDER even before I saw the forecast of 30+ mph sustained winds with gusts over 50 mph expected. The Rose Bowl will be swirling as it sits in an actual bowl and no protection, but moreso neither of these teams have deep passing games and prefer to keep it on the ground. The coaches may be forced to play a field position game as field goals will be treacherous at best.

While many think of the Trojan offense as a "light 'em up" scheme, they only had one play over 50 yards in the air all year and their yards per pass attempt numbers are marginal. The Illini have a QB who is not respected as a passer and he lacks the arm strngth to battle the breezes. Aside from special teams scores and turnovers deep in home territory, this game should be played low, around 42 points by my numbers.

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Kelso


25 units Florida -10
25 units Illinois +14
25 units Georgia -7.5
plus round robin 2 team parlays for 5 units each and a 3 team parlay for 10 units totalling 100 units

3 units Wisc +1.5
3 units Arkansas +3
3 units TxTch/Virginia OVER 58

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