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Sunday Service Plays
Re: Sunday Service Plays
2.5-Unit Play. Take Chicago (+2) over New Orleans
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 40.0 New Orleans at Chicago
Fade the "Must Win" teams in Week 17 - especially ones that are favored at home. The Saints do not play any defense at all, making them a dicey bet at any time. They had trouble in the slop of Soldiers Field last January and I think they will struggle again this year. I think both teams are going to move the ball and I know the Bears have enough pride to play this one for a win and end a long season on a positive note.
2-Unit Play. Take Carolina (-2.5) over Tampa Bay
The Bucs are going to be resting just about every key player and are already looking ahead to a matchup with the Giants next weekend. Carolina has been improving over the past month and these guys are still playing (and coaching) for their jobs next year. This is a divisional game so there is definitely extra motivation on the side of the Panthers to lay one on Tampa Bay.
2-Unit Play. Take San Francisco (+10) over Cleveland
Fade the "Must Win" teams in Week 17. The Browns are desperate but they don't stop people. San Francisco stunned Denver in Mile High to close out last year and I think they could do the same in this situation. The Browns have to be feeling a bit down after last week's crushing loss at Cincinnati. The Niners are playing better and I don't see them rolling over in this one.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Houston (-6) over Jacksonville
The Texans have had the Jags' number over the past three years when the two teams are playing straight. Now mix in the fact that the Jags will likely be resting their key parts in order to gear up for the postseason and Houston could hang a big number up. The Texans are looking for the franchise's eighth win of the season and that's a mark that means something to them. I think they get their win by pulling away late and laying a big one on a division rival.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
13@ TSM EROCKMONEY 60.55% 66/43 SIDES 44/33 TOTALS 22/10
(1.) Carolina (-2.5) at Tampa Bay
The Panthers have finished strong and saved coach Fox's job. I expect the Panthers to continue their solid play versus a Bucs team preparing for the playoffs.
Pick: Panthers by 4
(2.) Green Bay (-5) v. Detroit
The Packers are going to play this one like their season depends on it after a terrible performance in Chicago last week. The Lions have struggled at Lambeau and this one should be no different. With an upcoming first round bye the Pack will play their starters deep into the second half.
Pick: Packers by 7
(3.) St. Louis (+6.5) at Arizona
When these two get together it usually is a tight battle. I think the Rams will run the ball and keep the high powered Cardinals offense off the field. Jackson and company should be able to keep this one within the margin.
Pick: Cardinals by 4
(Over 39) Detroit at Green Bay
With Packers expected to play their starters and the Lions closing out on a high not this one should feature plenty of points
(Under 42.5) San Diego at Oakland
The Chargers need the win to clinch third place in the AFC, but could rest some starters late if they have the lead. The Raiders will be up for their home finale and will look to set the stage for further improvement in 2008. The defenses will shine in the divisional matchup.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
NFL Best Bet Sides
2 Star Selection
DENVER (+3.0) 24 Minnesota 20
30-Dec-07 01:15 PM Pacific Time
Denver is a tough place for visitors to win and the Broncos have a long history of stepping up their game against better teams, going 29-7-2 ATS at home when not favored by more than 2 points, including 8-1-1 ATS under coach Mike Shanahan. Shanahan?s teams are also 4-1 straight up and 4-0-1 ATS as a home underdog, including a straight up win over the Steelers earlier this season. The Broncos are coming home off two bad performances at Houston and at San Diego but Shanahan?s teams are 15-9 ATS after consecutive losses, including 3-1 ATS this season and 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more. Minnesota is in a must win situation if they hope to make the playoffs (they also need a Washington loss to Dallas), but teams in must win situations are only 48-77-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season against teams that are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and that includes Tennessee?s spread loss last week (and you could also include New Orleans in that must win scenario last week, although their loss to Philly didn?t officially eliminate them from the playoffs). Teams in a must win situation wouldn?t be in that situation if they could win whenever they wanted too, so to think that a team will suddenly play better because they need to makes no sense. However, most amateurs like to bet on teams in must win games and the oddsmakers know it, which is why the line is always higher than it should be and which is why it?s best to play against those teams. My math model favors Minnesota by 1 ? points if Brandon Stokley doesn?t play for the Broncos (he?s their most efficient receiver) and Minnesota applies to a negative 38-80-1 ATS last road game situation that is 2-19 ATS for teams that are exactly 1 game over .500 (and presumably needing to win for any hope of the playoffs). Denver has played much better at home this season, going 4-3 straight up with the losses coming to very good teams Jacksonville, San Diego and Green Bay while notching wins against Tennessee and Pittsburgh. Minnesota is not nearly as good as the teams that have been able to beat the Broncos at home this season. Young quarterback Jay Cutler has played much better at home, completing 69.5% of this passes and averaging and 7.6 yards per pass play at home while completing just 57.3% for 6.1 yppp on the road. Cutler has also been better than normal in cold weather (8.5 yppp in 3 games at 40 degrees or colder) and his strong arm allows him to play well in windy conditions (7.4 yppp in 5 games designated as windy). Vikings? starting quarterback Tarvaris Jackson has struggled on the road (52% completions and just 5.4 yppp) and he was horrible in his only career game in sub-40 degree weather (a pathetic 27 yards on 23 pass plays last year at Green Bay). With temperatures expected to be in the mid to low 30?s and with winds up to 20 miles per hour, I expect Cutler to play much better than Jackson. Minnesota will get their yardage on the ground, but Denver?s defense has improved against the run and the pass in 7 games since making defensive changes and Jackson will still have to play well to win this game. If the fair line is truly Minnesota by 1 ? points then the Broncos are a 57.4% play at +3 points even if there were no favorable situations or team trends supporting Denver. I?ll take Denver in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -1.10 odds or better).
NFL Strong Opinions
NY GIANTS (+13.5) 19 New England 26
29-Dec-07 05:15 PM Pacific Time
It?s tough to pick this game without knowing how long the starters will play for each team, but if I knew each team would play their starters an equal amount then I?d be on the Giants without a doubt even though the Patriots are gunning for a perfect season. That motivation is more than adjusted for in the line, as the Giants would be about a 10 point underdog in this game under normal circumstances. New York applies to a 53-11-2 ATS statistical indicator and a 75-27-2 ATS statistical indicator, so there is plenty of technical support to go along with the line value. But, the line value in this game is only real if the Giants? starters play for as long, or longer, than New England?s starters play and that is an unknown as I write this. New York has the good rushing attack (4.8 ypr) that has given the Patriots? defense problems this season (New England has allowed 4.4 ypr and the Giants bring enough pressure on defense (3.5 sacks per game) to potentially throw off the timing of the Patriots? aerial attack. New England has averaged a more reasonable 28 points per game in their last 5 games, with the weather not as conducive to a wide-open aerial attack, so I think the Giants can keep this close if their starters play a good portion of the game. I?ll consider New York a Strong Opinion in this game.
St. Louis (+6) 22 ARIZONA 23
30-Dec-07 01:15 PM Pacific Time
The Cardinals are now 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more since the beginning of last season after barely escaping with a victory over lowly Atlanta last week. This week the Cardinals are likely to struggle to cover as a favorite again, as they apply to the same negative 36-89-1 ATS situation that applied to them last week. That situation plays against favorites that are playing poorly on defense and Arizona?s defense has struggled since their best two players, DE Bertrand Berry and SS Adrian Wilson were both lost for the season in November. The Cardinals had a decent defense for much of the season but they?ve allowed 6.1 yards per play (to teams that would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average team) in 6 games without Berry and Wilson. St. Louis is 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively with a healthy Steven Jackson at running back (he?s been great since returning from a mid-season injury) and with Marc Bulger at quarterback, so the Rams have a 0.5 yppl advantage against Arizona?s banged up defense. Arizona is 0.3 yppl better than average offensively with Kurt Warner at quarterback and with both star receivers healthy and the Cardinals have a 0.7 yppl advantage over a Rams defense that is 0.4 yppl worse than average. Overall, my math model favors Arizona by 5 ? points, so the line is pretty fair, and the situation favors the Rams, who have covered 3 straight road games and are a surprising 6-2-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when visiting a team with a losing record (2-0 ATS this season). I?ll consider St. Louis a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more and I?d take St. Louis in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more (at -1.15 odds or better).
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Game: Cincinnati at Miami (Sunday 12/30 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Miami +3 (-125) (risk 5 to win 4)
Why in the world would Cincinnati even show up for this game? They played their Superbowl last week. We were on the Bengals in part because they have a heated rivalry with Cleveland, and anything they could do to serve as a spoiler in that contest they did. This week we'll fade them as we don't think they will show up for this game. It isn't any type of rivalry, and how does Cincy get up for the lowly Dolphins? After Miami put one in the win column vs. Baltimore, the stigma of losing to Miami is now gone. Miami is still playing hard, and they have already clinched the top draft pick (not affected by outcome of this game). With Bill Parcells hovering and making evaluations, you can be sure to see maximum effort here. The Bengals are getting all the action, but Miami is the team that has played hard all season. December home underdogs coming off a road blowout loss of 14+ points are 56-25 (69%) ATS since 1983. Miami should win this game outright but we'll take the insurance points.
Game: Buffalo at Philadelphia (Sunday 12/30 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Philadelphia -7 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Donovan McNabb looks like a guy trying to retain his starting position. He seems to be making a statement to the tune of "Yeah, my ankle is finally healed and those of you who thought I was done can kiss my a**!" He led the Eagles to a huge upset over Dallas two weeks ago and followed that up with a three-TD performance in another upset win last week. When he is on, and Brian Westbrook (1,291 yards rushing) is on, this offense is almost unstoppable. Buffalo has been a decent surprise this season but they remain lousy on the road, averaging just 9.6 points per game. Philadelphia is on a roll and we expect them to bring it again here, and the Bills will have trouble keeping up. Philadelphia is better than you think. Despite their lackluster year, this Eagles offense is still ranked 6th best in the league in yardage. In contrast, Buffalo's offense is ranked 31st, ahead of only San Francisco. Philly's defense is ranked 9th while Buffalo's is ranked 30th. Dick Jauron-led teams are just 2-11 ATS on the road vs. good offensive teams (those averaging 350+ yards per game). Under Andy Reid, Philadelphia is a team that doesn't let down after an upset win. In fact it's the opposite. They are 18-8 ATS coming off an upset win. They are also a great team to back as a favorite. We expect an ugly blowout here.
Game: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Sunday 12/30 1:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +3.5 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Pittsburgh stopped the bleeding last week ending a two-game slide by easily handling the Rams 41-24. They took a huge hit in that game though, losing the NFL's leading rusher, Willie Parker, for the rest of the season. It's the biggest fear of any coach down the stretch is to lose a key player or two, and with that fresh in the mind, you can bet playing Steelers starters throughout in this one won't likely happen. The absence of an able-bodied QB for Baltimore led to Troy Smith's first start last week. He played big-time, completing 16 of 33 passes for 199 yards and a TD, with no INTs. In Baltimore, that's certainly an upgrade. Baltimore has lost nine straight games, and you'd think they'd want to wipe out the pain of defeat, and secure one victory before the season ends. No one wants to end the season on an 0-10 run. The Steelers haven't won in Baltimore since 2002. This line in itself, is begging for Pittsburgh action. Think about it. San Diego is in Oakland this week in a similar game (one bad team that is out of the playoffs hosting a team going into the playoffs). San Diego is better than a TD favorite, while here the Steelers are favored by just a field goal. You might say that Baltimore is better than Oakland. But are they? The Ravens have managed two ATS wins all season, have lost nine in a row and are missing many key players. And, the Steelers do have something to play for - a better seed if they win and San Diego loses. Yet the line is hovering around a field goal. The oddsmakers seem to be begging you to take the Steelers. We're not biting. Since last season, the Steelers are 1-8 ATS on the road following a win and 0-6 ATS after scoring 35+ points. When a team is at its lowest, sometimes that's the time to back them. Baltimore is at rock bottom and heated divisional rivalries sometimes yield the unexpected, as we saw in Chicago last week. The Ravens surprise here.
Game: Detroit at Green Bay (Sunday 12/30 1:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Green Bay -4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Green Bay had everything to play for last week and got smashed in the mouth by Chicago. They lost all hope of home-field advantage through the playoffs. Do they want to enter the playoffs on a downward spiral, losing yet another game after that one - a loss to the lowly Lions at home? No way! We look for Green Bay to bring an effort here to avoid that nightmare. You can bet Favre is itching to get back on the field after his 153-yard performance last Sunday. It was the worst playing conditions he's faced in his career, according to Favre. With 40-mile-per-hour gusts of wind and sub-zero windchill temperatures, we can give a "pass" to the Packers. Especially considering that they had two punts blocked and two turnovers. Brett Favre has never lost to Detroit at home and the Lions haven't won here in 16 tries. Green Bay is 13-3-2 ATS in their last eighteen games vs. Detroit. The Lions snapped a horrific second-half skid with a 5-point win over KC last week. But, do they deserve much credit for that? The Chiefs afterall have lost eight games in a row! Detroit is 2-10 ATS the past two seasons as a road underdog of 7 points or less and 2-9 ATS on the road vs. conference foes. Green Bay to roll against the defenseless Lions here.
Game: St. Louis at Arizona (Sunday 12/30 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 48 -110
It's hard to believe either of these teams will show much interest here. What might be a great high scoring game in the middle of the season is likely to more resemble an exhibition game. The difference is, totals posted in exhibition games are typically in the low to mid 30s, not pushing 50. We have a totals system in play here that applies to late-season NFL play that has produced over 60% UNDERs. We also have a week-17 totals system that applies here and has gone 44-22 to the UNDER over the past eight years. We will ride the UNDER in this one.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Strike Point Football
Sunday's NFL Plays
2-Unit Play. #423 Take Cincinnati -2.5 over Miami (1 pm)
In this match-up you can't rely on either defense, but offensively the Bengals are more capable, and arguably they have performance better with Kenny Watson carrying the load in the backfield. Coupled with a strong passing game from last week, look for Carson Palmer and his receiving corp to cripple the Miami secondary and come through with enough points to cash with the road cover.
2-Unit Play. #435 Take Seattle +3 over Atlanta (1 pm)
Similar to a preseason game, the depth of a team that has already clinched a playoff birth can dictate so much. Seattle is capable with Seneca Wallace at quarterback and Maurice Morris, a reliable back, rushing the ball. The Seahawks won't look to lie down, so expect the same style of playcalling, just with several different players. Atlanta with Chris Redman = awful, and that's the truth. He was a turnover machine against Tampa Bay, and at least a little of me still thinks this team is ready to give up on this final game of an awful season. Seattle will jump into this game looking to keep its winning ways going, and here they come through with the outright victory.
3-Unit Play. #433 Take Pittsburgh -3.5 over Baltimore (4:15 pm)
The Ravens have been underachievers all season long, and with Boller and McGahee both likely out, Pittsburgh will be able to capitalize even with its secondary players on the field. Charlie Batch has shown his ability to come in and produce right away, while Najeh Davenport will still get some reps as he preps for the full time role come the playoffs. I still think the Steelers defense will get some time on the field, but more so this Ravens team has been weak on offense, not to mention a defense that allowed the Dolphins to walk all over them in the second half of last weekend's game. Pittsburgh will take this one to get some momentum on its side heading into the postseason.
3-Unit Play. #440 Take Indianapolis +6.5 over Tennessee (8:15 pm)
Call me crazy, but I totally see the Colts at home keeping divisional rival Tennessee out of the playoffs. Vince Young has been inconsistent to say the least all year, and I wouldn't want to bank on him in a must win game on the road. Indy doesn't have to rest its starters, although they likely will. The Colts still are a tough out at home and getting this many points at home seems like too many to pass up. Here, the home dog comes through and plays spolier despite them already being locked in to the #2 seed in the AFC.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
3 Unit Play. #28 Take Green Bay -4 over Detroit (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) The Packers have already clinched the NFC #2 seed, but want momentum heading into the divisional playoffs. Detroit has not won a game in Wisconsin since 1991 and laying around a field goal is too good of an opportunity to let slip by. An interesting angle in this game is that a favorite coming off a loss in week 16 and returning home as a favorite of less then 10 points is 15-0 ATS since 1991. It all leads back to 1991 and both streaks will still be active after Sunday. Green Bay 28, Detroit 17.
3 Unit Play. #28 Take Green Bay -4 over Detroit (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) The Packers have already clinched the NFC #2 seed, but want momentum heading into the divisional playoffs. Detroit has not won a game in Wisconsin since 1991 and laying around a field goal is too good of an opportunity to let slip by. An interesting angle in this game is that a favorite coming off a loss in week 16 and returning home as a favorite of less then 10 points is 15-0 ATS since 1991. It all leads back to 1991 and both streaks will still be active after Sunday. Green Bay 28, Detroit 3 Unit Play. #28 Take Green Bay -4 over Detroit (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) The Packers have already clinched the NFC #2 seed, but want momentum heading into the divisional playoffs. Detroit has not won a game in Wisconsin since 1991 and laying around a field goal is too good of an opportunity to let slip by. An interesting angle in this game is that a favorite coming off a loss in week 16 and returning home as a favorite of less then 10 points is 15-0 ATS since 1991. It all leads back to 1991 and both streaks will still be active after Sunday. Green Bay 28, Detroit 17.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
5-0 BEST BETS last Sunday so let's keep it going:
****BEST BET*****ATLANTA FALCONS (-1) VS. Seattle Seahawks: Strange line here as coach Mike Holmgren has gone out and said that the Seahawks will play their starters the majority of the contest. Atlnata is truly one of the worst teams in the league and even if the ‘Hawks go with their backups, Seneca Wallace has proven he can win games and move the team into scoring territory so this should be an easy win for Seattle. THE PICK: Seattle Seahawks (+1)
***BEST BET*****Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS: The Steelers have a shot to lock up the third seed in the AFC so motivation is certainly on their side. The Ravens are truly awful and have been one of the worst ATS clubs in history. There is no justification for taking the points here as the Steelers have something to play for and also have the bonus notion of pounding a division foe. THE PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
***BEST BET****ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6) VS. St. Louis Rams: The Rams are the clear play here as the Cardinals are now 0-7 ATS in their last seven as a favorite of 3 or more. The Rams are playing great on offense and they will be able to put up points in bunches against a truly awful Cardinal secondary. Both teams are playing for nothing but the Rams are the much more in sync offense and should even be able to win outright. THE PICK: St. Louis Rams (+6)
***BEST BET*****San Diego Chargers (-8.5) VS. OAKLAND RAIDERS: This game is a blowout waiting to happen as the Raiders will be going with rookie JaMarcus Russell at QB and the Chargers have to win to maintain the number 3 playoff seed in the AFC. The Raiders are truly abysmal with Russell at QB and the Charger defense will be licking its chops all afternoon as they storm into the Oakland backfield all game. THE PICK: San Diego Chargers (-8.5)
***BEST BET****Minnesota Vikings (-3) VS. DENVER BRONCOS: The Vikings are pretty much done in the playoff race in the NFC and they were victims of their woeful passing game. The blame falls squarely on the terrible play of QB Tarvaris Jackson who will find he going even tougher on the road in wintry Denver. The Broncos have been maddeningly inconsistent this season but they have been tough at home with QB Jay Cutler throwing the ball well in his comfort zone. The Broncos also have a slew of trends pointing in their direction as they are 10-2-1 ATS at home when not giving more than 2 points. They also are 4-0-1 ATS as a home underdog so its clear who to take here as Minnesota falls again. THE PICK: Denver Broncos (+3)
****STRONG OPINION****GREEN BAY PACKERS (-4) VS. Detroit Lions: The Packers will look to right the ship after a disgusting loss last week to the Bears and they would love nothing more than to inflict more misery on their woeful NFC North counterparts in Detroit. The Lions are a joke who have completely mailed in the season weeks ago and you can be sure that Brett Favre and company will be on top of their game with the playoffs on the horizon. THE PICK: Green Bay Packers (-4)
****STRONG OPINION****New Orleans Saints (-1.5) VS. CHICAGO BEARS: The Bears are the sure play here as you have a dome team coming into the harsh winter conditions in Chicago. The Bears have played with a spark the last few weeks and they certainly will be confident after knocking off the Packers last week in a rout. The Saints are a terrible cold-weather team who will find their passing offense tough to get going in the swirling Windy City winds. THE PICK: Chicago Bears (+1.5)
****STRONG OPINION****CLEVELAND BROWNS (-10) VS. San Francisco 49ers: The Browns have their playoff fates tied up with the result of the Titans’ game and so they might not have the edge needed to cover such a big number. The 49ers on the other hand are playing carefree football that has resulted in some solid play of late behind QB Shaun Hill. The spark Hill has given the team has translated into confident play on both sides of the ball and the Brown’s defense is so bad that a close game is to be expected in this game. THE PICK: San Francisco 49ers (+10)
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers - Sunday December 30, 2007 1:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: Green Bay Packers -4 (-111)
We like Green Bay in this game up to key # of -4, even though they are locked in as the #2 seed in NFC playoffs, regardless of the outcome of this game. After last week's disaster in Chicago, Packer coaches and players are anxious to re-establish their season long positive momentum with a solid win here, and unlike most of the other playoff teams playing under similar circumstances, there has been little talk of players being held out or seeing "limited duty." With back-up QB Aaron Rodgers being held out of last week's game due to injury even after that game got out of hand, and listed as "very questionable" for this game, it appears that Brett Favre will be taking most of the snaps for the Pack. Speaking of injuries, Lions lost their top RB Kevin Jones (600 YR and 8 rushing TDs) in last week's narrow escape at home over a lousy KC team. Detroit has to be on a mental "downer" even after that win, after having gone from the "penthouse" (at 6-2) early in the season to the "outhouse" at 7-8 going into their final game, courtesy of an ugly 6 game losing steak at the worst possible time. Included in that streak were three bad losses in their L3 road games, giving up a steadily increasing number of points each time, first with 31 at Arizona, then 42 at Minny, and finally 51 in their thrashing at San Diego two weeks ago. Lions are just 2-5 ATS TY on the road, including those last three "no shows." Contrast that to Green Bay, which is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS at home TY, and has beaten detroit 15 straight times on the "frozen tundra" at Lambeau Field. Favre really carved up the lions' secondary in the earlier meeting of these two teams in detroit TY, and while the weather won't approach the ideal conditions at climate controlled Ford Field, it's predicted to be much more "playable" than what the Pack had to endure last Sunday in the "windy city." We are releasing this pick now and urging customers to get in their bets ASAP on Green Bay at - 4 or better, as we think that's the best price we will get and that the line will rise past the key # of - 4. We will have an update on this pick later in the week as game day approaches.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Sunday, December 30th, 2007
@Eagles (-7.5) over BillsThe Eagles are quietly ending the season verystrong. They?ve won their last 2 games impressively, and they?ll carry that momentum into their home finale here against the Bills. Donovan McNabb looks as though he?s got his legs back under him after returning from injury, and when he?s able to scramble, the Eagles are a totally different team. Even though Philadelphia sits at just 7-8,they?ve outplayed that record this year. The Eagles are the only team in the NFL to have a losing record and still have a positive points per game average as compared to their opponents. That alone tells us that the Eagles are a much better team than their win-loss numbers indicate. It?s hard to see Buffalo bringing their A-game in this spot. Two weeks back they played in a meaningful playoff implication game at Cleveland and lost 8-0.This past week, the Bills hosted the Giants in another meaningful game. After jetting out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, Buffalo proceeded to get out-scored 38-7 the rest of the game. The Bills got a very emotional speech before the game from teammate Kevin Everett, and even head coach Dick Jauron said that his team was inspired by it and wanted to win the game badly for him. But that emotion lasted only one quarter and it was most certainly drained after the game. "It gets disappointing as the year goes on," defensive end Chris Kelsay said. "It's another year we're not going to the postseason. I'm getting frustrated." Clearlythe Bills are not right mentally, and playing out the string on the road against a team playing with confidence only spells disaster.Theres no questioning what Philly wants out of this game. I saw an interview of McNabb after the New Orleans win, and he stated that he definitely wants to return next year and that the team wants to finishout strong and go out on a winning note which would give them a boost going into the off-season.And considering they were 5-8 at one point, a 3-game winning streak to end the season would do exactly that. The Eagles have covered the spread in every game they?ve won this year, and their two home wins were by 35 and 10 points. Theyve also lost back-to-back home games so a solid win at the Linc will help erase the disappointing year. When the Bills lose on the road, they lose big as themargins have been by 23, 31, 22, and 8 points.This game could get ugly real quick. Eagles by 14.@Packers (-3) over Lions Selection and analysis by Dave FobareDetroit enters the final game of the season off a 25-20 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, breaking a 6-game losing streak. The Lions would love to close the season at 8-8 to give them their first non-losing season in the Matt Millen regime. But the offensive injuries are piling up. OLG Edwin Mulitalo missed last weekend's game with a concussion, and may miss the finale as well. ORT Damien Woody left the game in the first quarter with a shoulder injury, forcing the former Bronco lineman George Foster to fill in. Foster had been benched several times earlier in the season forineffective play, and when he took over forWoody there was a noticeable decline in production. Foster is so deep in management's doghouse he was fortunate just to be named to the game day roster and will be dropped from the roster in the offseason. While Woody is not currently on the NFL's injury list it is unlikely he will play the whole game against the Pack. Woody will be a free agent, and the Lions are desperate to re-sign him. Lead RB Kevin Jones suffered a knee injury that willdefinitely keep him out against Green Bay, and leading WR Roy Williams' season ended a couple of weeks ago. The Packers blew an opportunity to gain home field advantage thru the playoffs in a 35-7 loss to division rival Chicago. Favre was at his worst on a bone chilling, windy and at times snowy Sunday afternoon, and the Packers (12-3) took their most lopsided loss of the season. He passed for just 9
yards in the first half and 153 overall. Normally a great bad weather QB, Favre had problems the entire game trying to figure out how to deal with thewind. Bears' DB Alex Brown picked Favre off on the first possession of the third quarter, setting up a touchdown that made it 21-7, and LB Brian Urlacher ran one back 85 yards early in the fourth after juggling the ball. Favre wasn't the only Packer to give up big plays; the Bears blocked two punts by Green Bay's Jon Ryan, who also dropped a snap and booted a 9-yarder.The opening line on this game certainly indicates a belief that many Packers will be sitting out this meaningless final game. As of this writing Packer's head coach Mike McCarthy has said nothing aboutthis weekend's lineup. But the Lions are so banged up they could easily lose to Green Bay's backups The Pack is also backed by 22-5 ATS game 16 system worth over 9 points per game. The system features good teams that already haveplayoff spots locked up so I'm less concerned about who will don the uniform for the Pack. After KC's QB Brodie Croyle was injured midway thru the 2nd quarter against Detroit last week, grizzled vet Damon Huard came in off the bench and lit up the Lions for over 300 yards in just 2? quarters. Green Bay should have little trouble moving the ball on Detroit no matter who they suit up. Take Green Bay and
lay the points. Green Bay by 10
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Denver + over Minnesota (Sunday)
If you had to choose a team in a late-season must-win situation against a team with no incentive to win the Vikings would be the last team you'd choose as there have been several memorable late season losses for Minnesota that were costly, most notably in Arizona a few years back. Last week the Viking blew a golden opportunity and now the playoffs are out of their control. Denver features a tough home-field and a good secondary while the Vikings have shown the propensity for mistakes in recent games.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Miami +3 (1 unit)
Dallas +9 (1 unit)
Green Bay -3 1/2 (4 units)
Jaguars +6 1/2 (1 unit)
Over 39 Titans-Colts (1 unit)
Denver +3 1/2 (1 unit)
Chargers -7 1/2 (2 units)
St Louis +5 1/2 (1 unit)
Over 47 Rams-Cards (1 unit)
Over 34 Jets-Chiefs (1 unit)
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TEDDY COVERS 13-2-1
Jacksonville at Houston -4 O/U 41
Very quietly, under the radar, the Jacksonville Jaguars have becomethe NFL’s strongest Over team. The Jags have gone Overthe total in each of their last nine games. Jacksonville’s offensehas become a well oiled machine, putting up 24+ in each of thosenine games, including a whopping 49 points against the Raiderslast week. Quarterback David Garrard just set an NFL record withonly two interceptions in more than 300 pass attempts. And Jacksonville’sstrong running game, led by the duo of Fred Taylor andMaurice Jones-Drew, ensures that when they reach the red zone,
they score touchdowns. The Jags have big play potential from theirrunning game as well as their passing game, and let’s not forget tomention the defensive touchdowns that Jacksonville has scored–this team finds ways to reach the end zone, even in a meaninglessregular season finale. Houston has a similar Over bent. The Texansdefense has declined as the season has progressed, allowing 26+in eight of their last 13 games. But the Houston offense has beenextremely potent at home all season, averaging a full touchdownmore than they do on the road when playing at Reliant Stadium.Prior to their poor showing at Indy last weekend, the Texans hadput up 28 against the Bucs and 31 against the Broncos in theirprevious two games. With the Sage Rosenfels/Andre Johnsonquarterback/receiver duo making big plays every week and DariusWalker filling in nicely at running back for the injured Ahman Greenand Ron Dayne, look for Houston’s offense to be every bit as potentas the Jaguars offense, sending this game well Over the total.
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DAVID JONES 11- 5
St. Louis at Arizona -6 O/U 48
It has been a season to forget for the Rams after a promising8-8 campaign a year ago. Numerous injuries and a slow startultimately have led to a 3-12 mark coming into their finale. St.Louis has struggled on both sides of the ball this year. Thedefense has allowed 24 or more points in 10 of 15 games thisseason. A talented offense has lacked rhythm for most of theseason due to the injuries and a lack of consistency. However,the offense is vastly different when veteran QB Marc Bulger isbehind center. He should be able to have some success againsta vulnerable Cardinals defense. Arizona’s pass defense has beenunder fire in recent weeks due to some significant injuries. TheCards have allowed 27 or more points in five of their last six games coming into this one. Two of the worst offenses in the NFL(San Francisco and Atlanta) have combined to score 64 points in recent outings against Arizona. The Cardinals offense will be poised to keep pace with St. Louis in this contest. Former Ramshero Kurt Warner will be eager to give the Cardinals their firstnon-losing season since 1998. The club’s pass-oriented attackhas been in good form in the second half of the year. The Cardshave scored 24 or more points in six of their last seven efforts.In the first matchup between these clubs this year at the RCADome, the Cardinals held on for a wild 34-31 victory. This oneshould have plenty of offensive fireworks as both squads willbe firing the ball with success against a pair of soft defenses
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ROB VENO 11-3 -2
Seattle at Atlanta -2 O/U 38
Falcons defense continued its miserable downward spiral allowing30 more points and 437 total yards in last week’s overtime lossto Arizona. That marks the sixth consecutive week Atlanta hasgiven up 28 points or more. With Seattle clinching the NFC’s No.3 seed, head coach Mike Holmgren figures to either limit playingtime to or totally rest a majority of his starters but against this Atlantadefense, even the second team should get to 20 here. Backupquarterback Seneca Wallace has plenty of experience and he’llhave enough offensive line and skill position talent around him tovictimize the Falcons defense. Unlike their offense which is somewhatdepth shy and forced to go with a number of solid players, theSeattle defense can go to a full backup unit which can be exploitedby Atlanta. Resting here should be the disruptive members of Seattle’ssack happy defensive front, all three members of their fantasticlinebacking crew and their entire stellar unit of defensive backs.Atlanta piled up 27 points last week versus Arizona with QB ChrisRedman having a fantastic day (315, 2 TDs). RB Jerious Norwoodfigures to balance the offense here as he runs against backupswhich is likely to make the Falcons very potent in this contest. Seasonhome finale is likely to have Atlanta fired up as well as they’lllook to finish out strong for the crowd and interim head coach EmmittThomas. There’s just too much value in this total as this one screams of a game that’ll be all offense all day and post 43+ points.
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Point Trains's FOOTBALL PICKS 12/30/2007
NFL DOG DOMINATOR
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5)over HOUSTON TEXANS
Rating: 3 units
Jacksonville (+) over HOUSTON at 1:00 pm EST Jacksonville has slid under the radar throughout this season, posting the AFC’s third-best record behind New England Indianapolis. And the Jags have come on at the right time, riding a wave of momentum into the playoffs with six straight outright wins and seven straight ATS victories. They have nothing to gain from this game and their starters need rest but HC Jack Del Rio also doesn’t want to team to lose its hard-earned momentum. The Jacksonville starters may not play the entire game but they’ll get enough to keep this game close. A good example of what Jacksonville can do to Houston is its 37-17 win in the first meeting this year. The Jags ran for 244 yards on 9.4 ypc in that game while holding the Texans to 61 rushing yards on 2.5 ypc. They may be located in Florida but the Jags are a team for the postseason and the cold weather. Weather won’t be an issue in this game but Jacksonville’s up-front domination will be. The Jags are 2nd in the NFL with 152.8 rushing ypg and 7th with just 94.5 rushing yards allowed per game. That’s the kind of domination in the trenches that wins football games. Even if Del Rio does decide to rest his starters, he has plenty of capable backups at his disposal. Backup QB Quinn Gray has seen action in six games this year, even throwing for two TDs last week against Oakland. The RB duo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew might not see much action but backup back Greg Jones has ran the ball 241 times with nine touchdowns over the last three years, so he’s more than capable of stepping in. Jacksonville is a hot team right now and will want to remain hot heading into the postseason. It may not win this game with its starters resting a portion of the game but a deep roster will keep this game within a touchdown. Ride with the Jags.
6-UNIT NFC GAME OF THE MONTH
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6) over St. Louis Rams
Rating: 6 units
ARIZONA (-) over St. Louis at 4:15 pm EST Neither one of these teams has any chance at the postseason but one, Arizona, has a lot more to play for. The Cardinals, currently sitting at 7-8, can avoid finishing a season with a losing record for the first time since 1997, when they went 9-7, with a win over St. Louis. HC Ken Whisenhunt has had his team playing well since the opening game and he’ll continue to have them playing hard in this game. Arizona QB Kurt Warner has shown glimpses of the MVP quarterback that led his opponent in this game, St. Louis, to two Super Bowls. He has thrown for more than 3,000 yards with 24 touchdowns and a very solid 90.0 quarterback rating. Warner has two Pro Bowl-caliber wideouts at his disposal with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin and he knows how to find them. The Rams defense has been awful since the week’s opening week as it is 30th in the NFL with 26 points allowed per game and 21st with 221.7 passing yards allowed per game. St. Louis has allowed 37 ppg in its last two outings and allowed 34 points in its first meeting with the Cardinals. Arizona will match, if not surpass, that score in this meeting. St. Louis has all but packed it in for this season. Frustration from Torry Holt was seen on the sideline during last week’s 17-point loss to Pittsburgh and the rest of the team is in the same boat. Expect the Rams to come out flat while the Cards come out fired up. Ride with Arizona.
INDEPENDENCE BOWL MASSACRE
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-3.5,ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -vs-Colorado Buffaloes
Rating: 3 units
Alabama (-) over Colorado at 8:00 pm EST Alabama may have lost six games this year but each of those losses were extremely close games. The Tide’s losses came by just 6 ppg and Alabama had a chance to win each of them. If the Tide had received a few more favorable bounces they easily could be playing in a much better bowl game Alabama played very good defense this year despite playing those tough SEC programs. Alabama allowed just 21.8 ppg on the season, including just 18.3 ppg over its last three contests. The Buffs are 72nd in the nation in total offense and will have an extremely tough time moving the ball against the Tide “D”. HC Nick Saban has coached in tons of bowl games so you can be sure that he’ll have his team ready for this contest. Expect Alabama to concluding Saban’s first season with a win. Ride with the Tide.