Friday Service Plays
Re: Friday Service Plays
Friday's fantastic 4-0 card
500-Unit Bowl No-Brainer - BOSTON COLLEGE
Boston College was one of those teams that shot out of the gate this year, opening the season 8-0, only to do like a lot of others and climb to that No. 2 ranking and tumble. The Eagles lost three of their last five, including a 30-16 loss to Virginia Tech as a five-point road underdogs in the ACC title game on Dec. 1.
The key to the Boston College team is keeping QB Matt Ryan interested and excited about the game. He completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 4,259 yards, 28 TDs and 18 INTs. He's got an NFL body and arm, but needs to get it figured out in the brain.
The Eagles have a seven-game bowl winning streak (6-1 ATS) and this is the ninth straight bowl game for them.
Michigan State hasn't played since Nov. 17 when they beat Penn State 35-31 as a 2 1/2-point home underdog. Five players have been suspended from the Spartans roster for the bowl game, most notable DE Jonal Saint-Dic who was a beast on defense, recording 10 sacks and eight forced fumbles.
This is the first bowl game since 2003 for Michigan State and the Spartans are just 7-10 SU all-time in the postseason and 5-8 ATS. So expect a lot of bright eyes and too much "having fun" from the Spartans to really focus on winning this game.
Boston College is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games against teams with a winning record. Today, look for the Eagles to come out with a hunger to just dominate the Spartans. Plus Ryan wants a good show in front of some NFL scouts. He'll step up and deliver a quality game today.
Play Boston College.
200-Unit NBA Road Warrior - N.O. HORNETS
Do not doubt New Orleans and its ability to beat bad teams. The Hornets are showing if you just take care of business against the bad teams, you make yourself look a whole lot better.
The Hornets have won three straight and six of nine going back to Dec. 7 with only one of those wins coming against a team with a winning record. New Orleans just went to Memphis and scored a 116-98 win as two-point road favorites after beating Minnesota 110-76 as 12-point home chalk.
New Orleans is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 road games and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 against the Southeast Division. Charlotte, on the other hand, is a horrible 2-10 ATS in its last 13 overall.
The Bobcats have dropped four of six and 12 of 16 overall (4-12 ATS) and have losses at home to the Wizards, Orlando and a Bulls team that has been horrible this season. Charlotte has two of the most inconsistent players in the league it has to count on for big numbers to have any chance in Jason Richardson and Gerald Wallace.
The Hornets' Chris Paul is a superstar and is coming in off a 40-point, nine-assist performance against the Grizzlies. Throw in a shooter like Peja Stojakovic and guys who'll do the dirty work like Tyson Chandler and David West and we've got ourselves a team that can make a little noise.
New Orleans is scoring 102 per game in the last five and holding the opposition to 90.6. I like this Hornets' team and we're going to back them tonight in Charlotte.
100-Unit NBA Slam Dunk - L.A. LAKERS
The Jazz might have the strangest schedule in the NBA as they've played nine of their 13 December games on the road and were just home for one game before jaunting to Los Angeles for this one.
We like the way the Lakers are playing and with Utah being road weary, we're backing Los Angeles in this one.
Utah had a four-game, six-day East Coast swing, came back to Salt Lake City and beat the Mavericks 99-90 on Wednesday, and now head back out on the road for this one. Utah is just 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their nine December road games and 3-9 SU (4-8 ATS) in there last 12 overall.
The Lakers have won three straight and just beat the Suns 122-115 as 2 1/2-point home underdogs on Christmas Day. Los Angeles has rattled off nine wins in their last 11 games (8-3 ATS) and with the play of center Andrew Bynum, this team has a lot of potential.
In two meetings so far between these two, the home team has dominated. The Lakers won 119-109 as a one-point 'dog on Nov. 4, then Utah scored a 120-96 burial as a 7 1/2-point favorite on Nov. 30. The home team is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings.
Los Angeles is 10-4 (9-5 ATS) at the Staples Center this season and they've won four straight in front of the home fans.
Utah is not good on the road, just 11-27 ATS dating back to last year and 6-12 SU and ATS this season.
Play Kobe and Co. in this one to win it by 10. Lakers score another home win.
100-Unit Texas Bowl Tussle - TEXAS CHRISTIAN
Houston hasn't won a bowl game since 1980 and got absolutely spanked by South Carolina in last year's Liberty Bowl 44-36 as a five-point underdog. This isn't a team I want to back in the postseason.
So let's put our money on the Horned Frogs. TCU finished this season on a 3-1 ATS run and is 11-4-1 ATS against teams with a winning record, 16-7 ATS as a favorite and 12-5-1 following an outright victory.
TCU showed in the season finale they can run or pass with RB Joseph Turner carring 33 times for 226 yards and four TDs in the 45-33 win over San Diego State. QB Andy Dalton also threw for 298 yards and rushed for 60 yards and a TD.
The Horned Frogs have beaten Houston seven straight times dating back to 1993 (6-1 ATS) and last won in 2004 with a 34-27 home win as 6 1/2-point favorites. This is the ninth bowl game in 10 years for TCU and seventh under coach Gary Patterson (3-2-1 ATS).
Houston just couldn't cash a ticket late in the season, finishing on a 1-5 ATS slide even though they went 6-1 SU. And when the division was on the line against Tulsa, Houston forgot to show up, losing 56-7 in a a pick'em contest. That's not the type of team we want to back in a bowl game.
TCU knows how to win a bowl game. Houston doesn't. Let's back the Horned Frogs in this one as they win this by 21 points.
Re: Friday Service Plays
If establishing a ground attack and preventing the opposition from doing so spells victory, then victory is spelled BOSTON COLLEGE here tonight.
Getting things going for this 10-3 Boston College Eagles team on the ground is running back Andre Callender who has gained 958 yards on the year, while averaging 4.7 yards per touch. Callender not only leads the rushing attack for this BC team that averaged 105 yards per game on the ground, but has also caught 72 passes good for another 705 yards of offense on the year.
The play caller for the Eagles quarterback Matt Ryan is currently ranked 3rd in the nation in total passing yards on the year, and broke the BC touchdown record in route to the high ranking.
The Boston College success on the season does not end with the offense in the air or on the ground, as the defense allowed a low 68.2 yards per game on the ground, which is tops in the nation, while recording 34 sacks on the year.
The importance of these numbers follows. The Michigan State Spartans if held for under 200 yards on the ground in a game when they travel outside the Big 10 are a lowly 8-30 ATS, including 0-2 this season. This unfortunately for MSU is more bad news as the squad from Boston has defeated 32 of their last 34 out of conference foes.
Making their ninth straight bowl appearance, the Eagles over the last seven years are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS.
All the numbers and match ups lead to what I believe will be a nice BC win and cover.
Boston College gets the tilt here tonight.
I haven?t really been all that impressed by this TCU team this year that will be taking on the Houston Cougars tonight. I am still not all that impressed, but am deeply concerned about how the Houston Cougars high performance offense will operate tonight.
TCU enters at 7-5 on the year out of the MWC, while the Cougars march in at 8-4 playing out of Conference USA. Houston has dropped the last seven in the series between these two, and has covered only one over the span. In Houston?s four regular season match ups against teams that are bowl bound the Cougars are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. In the four losses the Cougars were outscored by an average of 43-23.
Tonight though the thing that rests heavy on my mind is this Cougar team that will be led by an interim head coach. Head coach Art Briles who turned this Cougar team around has already jumped ship for Baylor taking co-offensive coordinators Philip Montgomery and Randy Clements along for the ride. This is a bad situation for this Houston team that is built around wide-open offensive attacks. The Cougars are very talented at the skill positions, but the uncertainty I feel will get the best of them tonight. This TCU defense they go up against tonight will be the toughest and the most physical they have faced all the year. This Horned Frog ?D? gave up an average of 17 points per game on the year and finds them ranked 8th in pass efficiency defense.
The uncertainty of the coaching change at Houston and the defensive pressure they will endure tonight leaves me no doubt at all that TCU is the right side to be on.
The Horned Frogs get it done for us tonight.
Back the Terrapins tonight when they kickoff against the Oregon State Beavers. I really after all have no choice but to take the points in this one. Oregon State is a banged up team if there ever has been. Do not; I repeat do not let their three victories to close out the season fool you. Those victories came against the lowly Washington Huskies, Washington State Cougars, and oh yea the Oregon Ducks that completely collapsed when they lost their Heisman hopeful quarterback.
Maryland enters the game after starting the season 0-3, with an overall record of 6-6. The Terps were 0-3 ATS during their three-game losing start. They then turned the offensive controls over to quarterback Chris Turner who led Maryland to a 4-4 SU and ATS mark the rest of the way, connecting on 64.2 percent of his attempts.
Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen has been lights out in bowl appearances, as he has led the Terps to victories over Tennessee, West Virginia, and Purdue over their last three. Another intriguing number is the fact that ACC schools when battling a PAC 10 foe since 1992 in a bowl game situation are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS.
The Beavers have dropped their last four straight ATS when favored over an opponent at .500 or better.
The play here tonight is Maryland to hang around, if not win outright.
The 11-1 Butler Bulldogs hit the road tonight to take on the 5-5 Southern Illinois Salukis. The Bulldogs only blemish thus far was their loss at Wright State 43-42 back on December 8th. Tonight though weighing on their mind will be something bigger. Tonight they hunt for revenge. The Bulldogs into last season were proudly carrying a 22-game home court win streak when Southern Illinois came calling on February 17th. The result was a 68-64 Saluki victory, one that these Bulldogs have sure not forgotten.
Despite the Saluki?s home court domination they have enjoyed as of late, Butler comes in very well road tested already this year. Southern Illinois currently are 16-1 since the start of last season at home, and are 35-3 against non-conference foes when playing at home. Butler on the other hand has won most of their 11 battles this year away from home, as they have only played three times thus far on their home floor. With wins over Virginia Tech, Ohio State, and Florida State away from home, it is obvious the Butler Bulldogs are road tested and ready to avenge last season?s home loss to this Saluki team.
I strongly feel that Butler has proven to be the tougher team so far this year, based on strength of schedule and the grueling highways they have traveled so far.
Butler gets the win and cover tonight.
This is more of one of those feel good about a team situations, than a lot of stats and numbers to support them. The Huskies I realize are down slightly this year from the past, but come on people this is the University of Connecticut Husky basketball team. Not only are they led by one of the most storied coaches in Hall of Famer Jim Calhoun, they tote the reputation of being one of the most storied programs in college sports nationwide.
With this being said they travel today to take on C-USA member Central Florida who currently sits at 5-5 on the year. The lines makers are only asking for Connecticut to lay four in this spot. I have no problem with that at all. The Huskies come in 8-2 on the year, with their losses coming by a combined total of 14 at Memphis and against Gonzaga. In the winning column however the Huskies eight victories have come by a whopping 23 points per game average.
I cannot turn down this opportunity to back this Calhoun led team tonight as they take on what I feel is a much lesser competitor.
Connecticut is the play tonight.
Mississippi has risen up to be the lookout for team thus far in the SEC. The number 22 ranked Rebels tip it off tonight against the Golden Eagles of Southern Miss.
Tonight the Rebels look for their first 12-0 start ever when they take on this Eagles team on a neutral court in Southaven, Miss. Ole Miss. had been criticized early on as their wins were coming at home to lesser opponents.
Mississippi proved themselves more last time out when they defeated the Clemson Tigers 85-82 Saturday in the San Juan Shootout.
Miss. is being led by senior center Dwayne Curtis who has averaged 18.0 points over the Rebels last three.
Southern Miss. had their five game win streak snapped last time out by McNeese State 63-57.
The Rebels have pretty much dominated the series between these two winning 15 of the 19 meetings
With the Rebel?s strong play so far this season I see no reason that domination will not continue tonight
The play is Miss. to role.
Re: Friday Service Plays
30 DIMER - TCU HORNED FROGS.....10 DIMERS - MARYLAND TERRAPINS, & SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS
30 DIMER - TCU HORNED FROGS
Once TCU got healthy they were able to string together wins in 3 of their last 4, and the G-Man thinks the Frogs defense is going to do some damage to this Houston attack.
This is a Houston team that saw their Conference USA title hopes dashed when they were soundly thumped by Tulsa 56-7 in the middle of November. Now the Cougars have to play this bowl game with their offensive braintrust already on their way to Baylor, as coach Art Briles took his 2 co-coordinators along with him to Baylor University.
TCU is not an offensive juggernaut, but if you recall they trounced Northern Illinois 37-7 in their bowl game last year holding the dangerous Garrett Wolfe to under 100 yards rushing. The Frogs will use that blue print to stop the Cougars, frustrate the Cougars, and coast to an easy win and cover.
The Frogs get it done!
10 DIMER - MARYLAND TERRAPINS
Just don't see 5-points or so seperating Marylnad and Oregon State this evening in the Emerald Bowl.
Both schools should be pretty close to back to health, and if past history is any indication of how the Terps will fare, then things look good!
Ralph Friedgen has won his last 3 bowl trips with the Terrapins, including an upset win over Purdue in their bowl game last year.
I would not be surprised to see Maryland pull the outright victory in this spot, but I definitely like the fact we are getting over a field goal in this game. It only makes things better.
Take the points with the Turtle tonight against the Beavers.
10 DIMER - SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS
Last night I used the revenge angle to perfection as NC State won outright over Seton Hall. Tonight I use the revenge angle again, as Cal Irvine visits South Carolina.
Granted the Gamecocks are not as powerful as they have been in the past, but they are at home once again this holiday season, and catch the Ant Eaters playing their 3rd in a row since before Christmas. Irvine is 0-7 on the road, and 0-5 against the spread on the road thus far.
South Carolina lost a 67-52 contest last year at Cal Irvine, expect them to get revenge against a tired Cal Irvine team.
Re: Friday Service Plays
300* SOUTH CAROLINA
Charlotte Bobcats +4
MICHIGAN STATE 4
MICHIGAN STATE at BOSTON COLLEGE Under 56.5
TCU at HOUSTON Under 58
OREGON STATE -5
ST JOHNS -5
SAN JOSE STATE 10
MARYLAND at OREGON STATE Over 48
MONTREAL at FLORIDA Over 5.5
Re: Friday Service Plays
5* graded play OVER San Jose/St. Louis – AiS shows an 86% probability that 6+ goals will be scored in this game. STL has been struggling mightily having lost 6 of their past 8 games, but this puts them into an offensive frame of mind. Note that they are 19-9 OVER (+19.0 Units) after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. The last time these two teams played was on 2/13/2007 and it was a barn burner 6-5 San Jose win. There were also 21 assists in that game and I see no reason not to expect the same type of game tonight. STL vulnerable to the SJ power play as they have allowed a 25% conversion rate in their past 5 games.
3* graded play on Florida Panthers – Montreal lost at home to the Panthers 3-2 installed as a -170 favorite on December 18th and are not a solid bet in revenge situations. Note that 5-13 against the money line (-10.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite this season. Panthers also have a mental edge having a 22-16-4 (+8.9 Units) against the money line versus Montreal since 1996. In Florida home games they are 12-7-1 (+3.4 Units) against the money line versus Montreal since 1996 and 3-1-0 (+2.0 Units) against the money line versus Montreal over the last 3 seasons. Florida playing fine defense allowing just 6.9% of shots on goal to be scores. Plus, the Florida power play is hitting 25% conversions at home.
5* graded play on Michigan State – AiS shows a 75% probability that MSU will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and a 55% probability that they will win the game. The biggest mad most important matchup in this game for both teams is MSU DE Jonal Saint-Dic against LOT Gosder Cherilus. Matt Ryan is arguably going to be a successful NFL QB as he has the size and arm strength. Yet, in the last 3 games of the season he has thrown more picks than TDs. The simple reason for this is defensive pressure and the inability of his receivers to get enough separation to make a pass attempt. This is exactly where MSU has a huge advantage and I feel can completely shut down this offense. Saint-Dic is explosive off the edges and will win that battle easily in obvious passing downs. Also of note that is that BC RB Callendar is the leading receiver on the team. In situations where MSU knows Ryan will be passing there is no doubt you will see zone blitzes and a safety covering Callendar out of the backfield. MSU will make certain that Callendar is never covered by an underneath LB – expect in 3rd and 10+ yard situations. Special teams will also be a factor in this game and favor MSU. BC PK Steve Aponavicius has connected on just 11 of his 17 field goal attempts, and he's had two of his attempts blocked this year including one in the ACC Championship game. BC passing defense is just not good and I see no reason that MSU will not have long time consuming drives that will wear down the BC defensive front. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 27-6 ATS for 82% ATS since 2002. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a bowl game and in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. Here is a second system that has gone 48-19 ATS over the past 10 seasons for 72%. Play against neutral field favorites in minor bowl games played in December and is a team winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season. MSU is in a perfect role here as well knowing that they are 6-0 ATS versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.
3* graded play on Oregon State – Pac-10 off to a rough start this bowl season, but they should get their first win in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 24-5 ATS for 83% since 1992. This system is also 6-1 ATS last 3 seasons. Play against any team in non-conference games that is a good passing team averaging 7.5-8.3 PYA and is now facing a poor passing team allowing 5.6-6.4 PYA after 7+ games. Specifically, OSU is a solid 9-2 ATS versus poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons. Maryland is also in two poor roles for playing a team with the characteristics that OSU possess. Note that Terrapins are 9-21 ATS in road games versus good rushing defenses that are allowing <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992. Plus, they are 4-16 ATS in road games when facing teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season since 1992.
3* graded play on Indiana – AiS shows a 73% probability that Pacers will lose this game by 9 or fewer points. Detroit is certainly a hot team winning 16 of their past 20 games, but that strong run puts them into a poor role for this game. Detroit is 30-47 ATS (-21.7 Units) after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games over the last 3 seasons.
3* graded play on Charlotte – AiS shows a 75% probability that Charlotte will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 29-8 ATS since 1996. Play against road teams after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game. NO has won 3 straight and is coming off a divisional win at Memphis 116-98 and were installed as a 2 point favorite. This puts them into a weak role tonight with letdown ramifications. Note that NO is just 4-20 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival since 1996.
3* graded play on Portland – AiS shows a 78% probability that Portland is going to win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 36-13 ATS for 74% since 2002. Play against dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points versus divisional opponents and off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. Portland is playing well and is a big surprise in the NBA this season. The dominant reason is that they just don’t make many mistakes and this most evident in their turnover total and ratios. Minnesota does not play well against these mistake free teams noting that they are 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) versus good ball handling teams that are committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
3* graded play on Central Florida – AiS shows a 77% probability that Central Florida will lose this game by 4 or fewer points. Respective of the records may indicate onw thing – but CF is a very good team. They have played a far more difficult schedule to date and this seasoning will pay off for this top level matchup. CF also has a very good pressing and suffocating style of defense. Note that UCONN does not fare well against similar teams. They are just 6-16 ATS versus good defensive teams with a shooting percentage defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. UCONN has had a break and is coming off two consecutive games as a favorite and 3 versus conference foes. Not good news as they are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons. UCONN is also 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons. UCONN is 0-6 ATS in road games after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
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