Thursday Service Plays

Re: Thursday Service Plays

L. Ness' Holiday Bowl 24* (Texas/Arizona St)

My 24* is on Texas at 8:00 ET.

One could make a solid argument that BOTH of these teams are disappointed to be here. Texas had national title hopes before the season (at a minimum expected a BCS bowl bid) while ASU opened a surprising 8-0 and with a win on Thanksgiving night at home vs USC, would have secured a Rose Bowl bid (lost 44-24). Even with the Rose Bowl out of the picture, the Sun Devils were a likely BCS bowl team but the Rose Bowl decided on a traditioanl Big 10/Pac 10 matchup, chosing Illinois to play USC. If the Rose Bowl had chosen Georgia, then ASU would have likely filled that 10th BCS bowl spot! In the end however, I just don't have ANY faith in ASU in a big game. In its two biggest tests TY, ASU flopped at Oregon and at home to USC (lost by 20, allowing 508 yards!). Rudy Carpenter had an excellent year at QB (63% / 251.2 YPG / 23-8 ratio) but he was sacked 51 times (Texas defensive front will love that!). Texas QB McCoy was erratic this year (21-18 ratio), after posting a 29-7 ratio as a freshman. He did lose his best WR (Sweed) and two OL but Texas has great depth. RB Charles (1,458 / 6.3 / 16 TDs) was great and should have a big game. Texas lost back-to-back Big 12 games to open the year but then won five straight (avg win by almost 20 points!) before throwing in a clunker vs an inspired A&M team in its final game. ASU fell behind Colo (14-0), Ore St (19-0) and Cal (13-0) but came back to win each time, in starting 8-0. Then, the Sun Devils "spit out the bit" when it counted. Erickson's team is overrated and is in over its head vs Texas. Head coach Mack Brown just continues to win, as he's the only coach to guide his teams to nine-plus wins in 11 consecutive seasons! Class wins out. 24* Texas.

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B. Burns' Thursday Night CBB ROAST *7-1 L8 Roasts!

I'm taking the points with HAWAII.

The Lobos are a solid team and they were playing well heading into the Christmas Break. However, they've ben much better at "The Pit" for years and this is a difficult situation. The Lobos are 0-2 their last two road games and now they have to travel directly after Christmas to take on a revenge-minded Hawaii team on its home floor. Looking back to last season and we find that the Warriors also played a home game, immediately following Christmas. They easily took care of Tenn. Martin in that game, winning by double-digits. Despite covering in the earlier meeting, the Lobos are also just 2-7 ATS their last nine games against teams from the WAC Conference. They're also just 1-3 ATS as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. During that stretch, the Warriors have gone 7-4 ATS as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. The Warriors are also 6-4 SU/ATS the last 10 times they faced a team which allows 64 points or less and a healthy 14-9 SU the last 23 times they were coming off three or more consecutive losses. Despite a slow start here this season, the Warriors are also 29-11 their last 40 home games. I look for homecourt and the "holiday travel" to be the difference tonight as the Warriors play an inspired game and avenge the earlier loss. *Thursday Night Roast.

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S. spritzer's CBB TKO Game of the Week! *58-23, 72% Run!

I'm laying the points with Seton Hall on Thursday.

The already quality-depth shy Wolfpack just suffered a tough blow. Coach Sidney Lowe announced that starting PG Farnold Degand will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Degand was not a big scorer, averaging about 7 PPG, but his leadership on the floor was invaluable. The loss knocks NC State down to six quality bodies in reality. They have a few players to fill time, but no one can step up and provide the quality minutes. It's a Wolfpack team that dropped their previous two road games, even with a healthy Degand on the floor. NC State was pounded by Michigan State and sufferend an away loss to ECU, also. The Pack allowed 81 and 75 points in those defeats and will be hard-pressed, without their floor leader, to have any say in the tempo tonight. Seton Hall loves to run the floor and should have little trouble cruising past this low spread. I'm laying the points with the Pirates on Thursday.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Winners edge

NBA:

Dallas Mavs -6.5 , 2 units

CFB:

Texas -2.5 , 2 units

CBB:

N.C State +3 , 1 unit

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

JIMMY KRUGER

Arizona State +2.5 over Texas - Bronze 3*


Pointwise Phone (Bowl Record 0-7)

4* Arizona St.

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Michael Cannon - - was 3-0 yesterday


50 Dime –
ARIZONA STATE

Take Arizona State as the small dog tonight in the Holiday Bowl over Texas.
This is not the best of spots for Texas, as they struggled down the stretch with their pass defense and now have to face a polished passer in Arizona State’s Rudy Carpenter.

Carpenter threw for 3,015 yards with 23 TDs and only eight INTs this year. He was a big reason the Sun Devils finished 10-2 on the year under coach Dennis Erickson.
The Longhorns struggled big time down the stretch on defense, particularly against the pass. Texas allowed a staggering 1,573 yards and 13 touchdowns through the air in its last three games and finished the season ranked 109th in the nation in passing yards allowed.

Arizona State leads the nation in Time of Possession (33:56), while Texas allowed rival Texas A&M to keep the ball for 40 minutes in its season finale. Mind you, the Longhorns were playing with revenge motive against the Aggies and still came up on the short end of a 38-30 final score.

The Longhorns are no pushovers with Colt McCoy leading the offense, but the sophomore quarterback has been prone to mistakes this year with 18 interceptions.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Sun Devils pick McCoy off a few times tonight, as their speedy secondary is ranked No. 6 in passing efficiency defense, allowing 232 ypg on 52 percent completions, with a 17-17 TD-to-INT ratio.

The Texas offensive line is banged up, with starting left tackle Tony Hills and starting center Dallas Griffin both out with season-ending injuries suffered a week apart in November.

Carpenter should have a field day against the Longhorns secondary, which will allow the Sun Devils to sustain drives and control the clock.

Texas is just 2-10 ATS as a bowl chalk (2-6 under Mack Brown). Big 12 bowlers are also just 2-9 ATS off a SU favorite loss, 5-16 ATS as a chalk versus a foe off an ATS win and 1-7 ATS in the last eight bowl matchups when favored over the Pac 10.
Holiday Bowl favorites are just 1-8 ATS and the underdog in Arizona State bowl games has cashed 10 of the last 12 tickets.

Take Arizona State as the small dog tonight as they get it done over Texas.

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Tony Mathew's Free College Basketball Selection for December 27, 2007.

Matchup: Idaho State vs. Utah

Selection: Utah -22 (-110)

Explanation: We will side with Utah -22 as they face-off against Idaho State in Thursday's College Basketball contest.

Utah has the much superior offense. Idaho State (on the road) is scoring an average of only 55.1 point per game, while Utah (at home) is scoring an average of 71.6 points per game.

Utah also has the much superior defense. Idaho State (on the road) is allowing opponents to score an average of 72 point per game, while Utah (at home) is allowing opponents to score scoring an average of only 58.4 points per game.

Idaho State is a poor road team. In fact, Idaho State is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games.

Take Utah -22!

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Sebastian

NHL

10* Phoenix
10* Atlanta

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Gina

8:00 p.m. Cleveland (13-16) at Dallas (19-10) Dallas Mavericks - 6½
The Mavericks have won the last three meetings versus the Cavaliers and 12 of the last 14. In the last meeting on October 31st, Dallas hammered the Cavaliers, 92-74 at Quicken Loans Arena. Go with the Mavericks to continue their command over the Cavaliers at home and grab their sixth straight win against Cleveland in Dallas. The Mavericks are 13-2 at home this season, while the Cavaliers are 5-10 on the road.


10:30 p.m. Boston (23-3) at Seattle (8-20) Boston Celtics - 9½

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SPORTS MONITOR

PREDICTION: Dallas 102 Cleveland 93

(TRENDS): The favorite has covered 10 of the last 14 in this series.The over is 12-5 in Dallas' last 17 home games. Dallas hascovered five of the last seven when hosting Cleveland.

(GAME SUMMARY): The Cleveland Cavaliers promised they would improve following an opening night drubbing at home courtesyof the Dallas Mavericks. For a while, they delivered- then things got even worse.

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Mike Volpe 6-1 in bowl games after last nights win

Holiday BowlDecember 27, 20078 PM ET on ESPN

Arizona State Sundevils (O/U 62) versus Texas Longhorns -1 The Sundevils have dropped two of their four games outright and have lost four straight against the spread. As an underdog Arizona State has dropped four of the last five including a loss in last year’s Hawaii Bowl. 4* Play on the Texas Longhorns -1

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Northcoast Infomercial

California Sports
4* New Mexico -5

Economy Club
Tampa Bay

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Cajun-Sports

Holiday Bowl (San Diego, CA)

This Bowl Game features a first year Head Coach at one University and the other Coach leading his team to 10 straight seasons with at least nine wins. Dennis Erickson has done a masterful job with his Arizona State Sun Devil team as they come in ranked 12th in the nation with 10 wins in the regular season and a share of the PAC 10 Title, not too bad for his first season at the helm at ASU. While Texas head man Mack Brown has been consistent if nothing else as his Longhorns come in ranked 17th in the nation and a chance for a 10-win season.

Coach Erickson has brought a sense of stability and confidence to this program and that is reflected in both his offensive and defensive squads. On offense ASU QB Rudy Carpenter has been outstanding throwing for 250+ yards per game on 63% completions and a very impressive 23 touchdowns to only 8 interceptions. They have also averaged a little over 32 points per game on 12.7 yards per point.

ASU’s defense has been equally impressive holding opponents to 19.5 points per game. Their rush defense is allowing a little over 100 yards rushing per game on 3.6 yards per carry. Their pass defense is not quite as stout as their rush defense but they are only allowing 247 yards passing per contest on the year and forcing opponents to 18.5 yards per point.

The Longhorns have shown the ability to score as well averaging 35.2 points per game on the season on 467 yards of total offense. The Longhorns offensive attack is lead by QB Colt McCoy who has completed 65% of his passes for 261 yards per game. He has also thrown for 21 touchdowns which is very productive but when you add to that fact he has thrown 18 to the other team the numbers are not quite as remarkable.

The Texas defense is where the key for this game is found. The Longhorn defense is ranked 109th in the nation in pass defense allowing 275 yards passing per game. They are allowing over 24 points per game and in their last three contests they have averaged allowing 38.7 points per game and 534.3 yards of total offense. These types of numbers if they continue in this game will translate into a long day for the Longhorns as the ASU offense led the PAC 10 in passing efficiency.

Motivation is always important in any sport but it is especially important in College Bowl Games where you might have one team disappointed in the Bowl they are playing in because they had higher hopes for their season and then you have a team that is excited to be in the Bowl and looking forward to playing their opponent. Well based on the Longhorn Players themselves we think we know who will be the more motivated team in this contest.

The Texas Longhorns were hoping for bigger and better things at the start of the season than the Holiday Bowl. Texas started the year 4-0 and then lost their National Championship hopes when dropping back-to-back games in the Big 12. Texas coach Mack Brown said: “We didn’t play to our standards. Our guys need a really good opponent to get up for.” His players have one now in Arizona State, but most of the senior players are not happy with the team's finish, including DT Frank Okam who said: “This (the Holiday Bowl) is not where we want to be.”

There are a couple technical situations that back our position against the Longhorns. The first one is when Texas has played in a minor bowl coming in off a straight up loss and not an underdog of four or more points we find they are 0-5 ATS failing to cover by an average of over 17 points per game. The second tech situation finds Texas in the same situation but facing an opponent off a straight up win by two or more points the Longhorns check in at 0-5 ATS and failing to cover the number by an amazing 22 points per game.

From a situational standpoint we know to “Play Against” CFB Neutral field favorites in minor bowl games (played in December), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, 53-19 ATS the last ten seasons and 12-4 ATS the last three years. “Play Against” CFB Neutral field favorites (TEXAS) - in minor bowl games (played in December), good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season, 48-18 ATS the last ten seasons and already a perfect 2-0 ATS this year.

Finally we have a Super System that backs our play on ASU. Following a straight up win but a poor spread performance where a team failed to cover the spread or score 21 points after scoring at least 21 points in its previous 3 games they have bounced back strong as evidenced by this Super System. It says to Play ON a team with 21+ days rest off a SU win & ATS loss/push, scoring less than 21 points in its last game and scoring 21+ points in each of its 3 games before that, 18-0 ATS since 1980. This system qualifies a Play ON Arizona State (+)

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Root

Chairman - Texas Longhorns

Millionaire - Hawaii

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Doc's Sports
Sport: College Football
Game: Arkansas Razorbacks @ Missouri Tigers - Tuesday January 1, 2008 11:30 am
Pick: 1 unit (Free Play) ATS: Missouri Tigers -3 (-110)

Free Play. #2 Take Missouri -3 over Arkansas (Tuesday January 1st, 11:30 am Fox) If coaching has any impact on this game, one would have to figure Missou has a huge edge, as they recently gave Coach Pinkel an extension. Arkansas forced out their coach, as Houston Nutt thought Ole Miss had brighter pastures in the future. The Hogs still cannot throw the football whatsoever and expect the Tigers to crowd the line of scrimmage and not let McFadden or Jones beat them. The Tigers have an explosive offense led by Heisman finalist Chase Daniels, who can beat you with his arm or his legs. This line is low because Vegas expects Missouri to be down about playing in the Cotton Bowl instead of the Orange Bowl, but I expect just the opposite to occur, as the Tigers come out and make a statement. It also helps to have revenge on their minds, as Arkansas knocked them off in 2003, 27-14. Docs Sports is your place for consistent winners in the NFL, NBA, NHL, and College Basketball, with 36 years of winning experience. Be sure to check back for daily updates from some of the finest minds in the industry.

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OC DOOLEY COMP

1 UNIT” NBA NATIONAL-TV TOTAL (Cavaliers at Mavericks OVER 193 in an 8:05 eastern tipoff on TNT-TV): Cleveland actually faced Dallas way back on opening night when the squad put only 74 combined points on the scoreboard, and LeBron James was held to just 10 points. I just have a feeling “the king” will score many more points tonight, considering that he has averaged a whopping 29 points per game lifetime against the Mavericks. The player that I will be watching closely is Dallas point guard Jason Terry who has had 2 of his absolute best 5 career performances against Cleveland, including a massive 43 POINT effort back in the 2003 campaign. Also note that Mavs superstar Dirk Nowitzki has averaged OVER 20 points per game in his career when opposing the Cavs defense. Speaking of that Cleveland defense, they certainly looked good in a Christmas Day cover against Miami. Following that contest, LeBron James mentioned to the assembled media that when his team plays solid defense, they quote “look good”. The problem is that Cleveland’s defense has NOT put up very many solid performances, as they have already allowed opponents to score 100+ points on the scoreboard SEVENTEEN times in 29 total games. To put this in proper perspective, Cleveland allowed the opposition to score in “triple digits” only 18 times all of last year, spanning from November-through-June! Getting back to that Christmas Day game that was on National TV, the Cavs offense just happened to put a healthy 96 points on the scoreboard, led of course by LeBron’s 25 point, 12 assist output. What caught my attention most was off the BENCH as guard Daniel Gibson contributed 16 points. Tonight’s total has started to drop from an opening figure of 194 points, due to the fact that Dallas last night lost a low scoring affair in Utah where the team was lucky even to make the 90-point barrier. But consider that last night was the only ROAD game that Dallas is playing in a rather lengthy EIGHT game stretch, so I fully expect their offense to rebound this evening. My database research indicates that Cleveland has played OVER in 9 of 15 ROAD games this season, where the awful defense has permitted 100 points per pop. Dallas just happens to be 8 of 13 OVER the total so far in front of the HOME fans, where the defense has been shockingly poor permitting 99’ points per contest. Note that ever since Mike Brown has been head coach, Cleveland is 53-36 OVER the total after consecutive games when the team has been cast as a favorite.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

LVTR 3-1 yesterday

CFB
Arizona Sate +3
Over

NBA
Boston Celtics


Doc's

CBB

4* Senton Hall


Yankee Capper

NCAA Football
2 Units - Arizona State +2 ½

NBA
2 Units - Boston Celtics -9 ½

NHL
5 Units - Montreal Canadiens
1 Units - NY Islanders

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Robert Ferringo

2-Unit Play. Take #711 New Mexico (-5.5) over Hawaii (11:50 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 27)
I?ve found it shocking how bad the Warriors have been at home this year, dropping five of their eight contests on the island. New Mexico is the best team they?ve faced yet and has already beaten Hawaii by 29 points. The Warriors are also going to be without starting center Steve Verwers, who broke his leg yesterday in practice. That doesn?t bode well for a team that was outrebounded 33-18 in the last meeting. In all, New Mexico is 23-2 SU against Hawaii and I think they manage another double-digit win tonight. New Mexico is 11-2 ATS in nonconference games while Hawaii is 6-20-1.

2-Unit Play. Take #715 Rider (+2.5) over Drexel (7:30 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 27)
Rider has won three straight road games and hasn?t taken any bad losses this year. The Dragons have only beat third- and fourth-tier schools this season and I don?t think they have enough firepower in this one. Drexel is 8-24-1 ATS at home and a better Dragons team than this lost to Rider last year. The Broncs brought back about 90 percent of their scoring from that game while the Dragons have about 40 percent. (And this is a win-win situation. If we do lose this one we?ll likely get better value against the Dragons and make a killing going against Drexel next Monday vs. St. Joe?s.)

2-Unit Play. Take #710 Seton Hall (-2.5) over North Carolina State (7:30 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 27)
N.C. State has been underwhelming this season and has dropped both of its road games. The Wolfpack also lost its point guard and leading assist man, leaving them only three scholarship guards on the roster. Seton Hall?s backcourt is its strength and to this point the Pirates are 5-0 on their own turf. This one should be close, but if The Hall can knock down some jumpers they should control this one

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Black Magic Sports

NCAA Basketball:

5 Unit Black Magic NCAA on ESPN 2 BEST BET on Nevada +21.5

Nevada has plenty of talent to keep this one close against the North Carolina Tar Heels Thursday. First Team All-WAC selection Marcellus Kemp is back this year after averaging 18.5 points a game last season. He will give the Tar Heels match-up troubles all game. Kemp is putting up over 19 points a game this season. Nevada has now won 5 straight games so they are playing their best ball of the year heading into this contest. Nevada is 27-8 ATS after a game with 9 or less assists since 1997. Nevada is 14-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders since 1997. Nevada is 14-4 ATS off a road win over the last 3 seasons. Cash in with Nevada as the underdog.

NCAA Football:

4 Unit Holiday Bowl BEST BET on Arizona State +2.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils should not be the underdog Thursday. The Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Big 12 opponents. The Longhorns are 2-9-1 ATS Longhorns are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 points. The Longhorns are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games as a favorite. We will play against the Neutral Field favorites in minor bowl games (played in December), good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season. This System is 48-18 over the last 10 seasons with a 73% winning ratio. Cash in with Arizona State as the underdog.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

ATS LOCK

3* Arizona St. +2 1/2

Hoops

3* Seton Hall -2 1/2


ATS FINANCIAL

3* Over 61 1/2 Az St.

Hoops

3* North Carolina -21

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