Thursday Service Picks and Consensus Reports

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John Ryan's 5* Monster Play

Game: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans Dec 13 2007 8:15PM
Prediction: Houston Texans

Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Houston Texans ? AiS shows an 83% probability that Houston will win this game. Simplistically, Houston has a fantastic passing offense and a horrible passing defense; both of which work against Denver. Seems Denver cannot exploit weak passing defenses nor can they defend against strong passing offense. Denver is 0-7 ATS versus awful passing defenses that are allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons. Also, Denver is 0-7 ATS versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons. Denver is coming off a strong win 41-7 at home over KC. In that game they gained well over 6.0 YPP and this puts them into a terrible spot for this game. Note that Denver is 0-7 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game this season. A big factor in this game is that I see Houston stopping the Denver running game by playing a Tampa-2 scheme. Linebackers Morlon Greenwood, DeMeco Ryans, and Danny Clark will be able to show run support at the LOS and drop back into under neath pass coverage. Denver QB Cutler can be easily confused by this simply that he loves to take chances. By seeing run stop he can believe that the middle of the field will be open, but with the Tampa-2 the MLB will drop into the area usually open with a conventional cover-2 scheme. Plus, and most important, the LB corp has the athleticism and skill to stop the run without gimmicks. Take Houston

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WAYNE ROOT

Chairman - Texans

Passing on Hoop

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Dr. Bob:

Denver (-1.5) 26 HOUSTON 23
05:15 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Dec-13

Stats Matchup
Denver is an improved team thanks to a switch they made on the defensive side of the ball in week 10 – moving Hamza Abdullah into the starting lineup in place of Nick Ferguson and putting more emphasis on stopping the run (Abdullah is better in run support). The Broncos allowed 5.1 ypr and 6.2 yards per play in their first 8 games while rating at 0.8 yppl worse than average, but they’ve yielded just 3.7 ypr and 4.6 yppl (although to teams that would combine to average only 4.4 yppl against an average team) in 5 games since making the move. Houston is going with Sage Rosenfels at quarterback for the injured Matt Schaub again this week and there isn’t any difference in value between the two quarterbacks. Rosenfels is actually better on a compensated yards per pass play basis (6.6 yppp against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback) but he is more interception prone than Schaub. Overall, my math model makes this game a pick if WR Brandon Stokley plays for Denver and favors Houston by 1 points if he doesn’t (he’s a game time decision with a bad knee). I’ll lean with Denver regardless given that Houston is coming off a nice win over Tampa Bay last week and the Texans are just 7-17 ATS in their history the next week after a win, including 1-9 ATS against a team with a losing record.

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Re: Thursday Service Picks and Consensus Reports

Frank Rosenthal
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 13, 2007

NFL WEEK # 15
BRONCOS VS TEXANS
251 BRONCOS-1 SB+
OVER 47 SB

NBA
501 WIZARDS+6 SB+
UNDER 202.5 SB
504 LAKERS-5 SB

COLLEGE HOOPS
506 MISS ST-5 SB

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Tony Stoffo's

Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Florida at St. Louis
Time: 8:35 PM EDT (Thu)

Play: St. Louis (+ML-150)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: December 13, 2007 @ 10:47:17 AM EST

NHL Game of the Month Florida at St Louis One of my top rated situational trends in the NHL goes here favoring the Blues for tonight. Play On - Home Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (St Louis) - after a close loss by 1 goal in their previous game against opponent after losing their previous game in overtime. This powerful trend as gone 39-5 over the past 5 seasons hitting at an incredible 89% Plus is a perfect 3-0 already this season. Plus add in the fact that the Panthers are 13-42 in road games during the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons makes St Louis my highly recommended play for tonight

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The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!! Technical Plays of the Week

DENVER-HOUSTON “Over” (Thursday)...Broncos “over” 16-2 last 18 on
board


GOLD SHEET

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 13
*Denver 27 - HOUSTON 24—Mike Shanahan takes on long-time right-hand
coaching man Gary Kubiak for the first time in the regular season. Well, at least the
two friends can commiserate about the slew of injuries that have greatly hampered
their offenses TY. We’ll side with underdog Denver, which at least has kept QB Jay
Cutler healthy and developing TY and which has more quickness in the backfield
(Longhorn product S. Young 156 YR last week at K.C.). TV—NFL
(04-DEN -7 31-13...SR: Den 1-0)

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Marco D'Angelo | NBA Sides Single-Dime Bet
WAS +5.5 vs  MIA

Analysis: Tonight in the NBA Miami returns home from a West Coast Road trip. I like to go against a team returning home from a long road trip as that first game home they are not yet back into a routine. This was a 6 game trip over 10 days. Look for Miami to be sluggish tonight and for Washington who has adjusted nicely to the injury to Arenas to take this one to the wire. I have Washington Winning by 2-5 points.  TAKE WASHINGTON and make them a SINGLE DIME PLAY.

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Brandon Lang

THURSDAY

15 DIME TEXANS

5 DIME LAKERS -

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Wunderdog NHL

Game: Edmonton at Detroit (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 5.5 -110

Edmonton is on an uncharacteristic scoring spree but they run into one of the best defenses in the league tonight. Detroit has allowed just 1.9 goals per game on the season at home. Over their last six games, they have allowed just eight goals in total. We don't expect Edmonton to get a lot tonight. Detroit could score a lot against this Oilers defense, but keep in mind that over the past three seasons, the Red Wings are 49-31 UNDER vs. poor defensive teams (those allowing 30+ shots on goal per game). They are also 11=2 UNDER the past two seasons after allowing 2 or fewer goals in four straight games. They are also 9-2 UNDER after winning two straight this season.

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LVTR

Play: HOUSTON +1.5 (NFL)
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: HOUSTON +1.5 (NFL) 
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) LATE ADDITION SELECTION: MIAMI HURRICANES  vs MISSISSIPPI STATE     

Play: MIAMI (NCAAB +6)
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) LATE ADDITION SELECTION: Always check back by 7pm est week days and 6pm est on the Week ends. Always remember that plays posted early are always LVTR primary plays. Today's Late addition play is : MIAMI (NCAAB +6)

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) LATE ADDITION SELECTION: MIAMI  vs MISSISSIPPI STATE     
 
Play: MIAMI vs MISSISSIPPI STATE OVER 135 (NCAAB)
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) LATE ADDITION SELECTION: Always check back by 7pm est week days and 6pm est on the Week ends. Always remember that plays posted early are always LVTR primary plays. Today's Late addition play is : MIAMI vs MISSISSIPPI STATE OVER 135 (NCAAB)

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King Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet HOU /  DEN Over 47.0 BetUS

2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAAL

Yes, it's a high OU line tonight in Houston (opened at 46... up to 47). But current 2007 results based the closing OU line have produced profitable OU results in this 'range'. Since October 1st, NFL games with a closing OU line of 46.5 pts... 47 pts... or 47.5 pts have gone 11-2 O/U.

Here's all the applicable OU Systems that I queried from the Playbook NFL database:

NFL Game 14 teams who rushed for 200 > yards last week (DENVER) have gone 8-1-1 O/U in the last 4 seasons.

So far this year, NFL teams off a SU home DIVISION win of 21 > points (DENVER won 41-7 last week) have gone 5-1 O/U.

Since 1996, DECEMBER teams who have gone OVER the Total in each of their last 6 games (DENVER) have gone 16-4-2 O/U.

I wrote about some of these HOT "Before and After" current OU patterns in this week's TOTALS TIPSHEET: NFL teams are a PERFECT 8-0 O/U before playing the Indianapolis Colts (HOUSTON plays 'em next week). NFL teams are 13-2 O/U before playing the San Diego Chargers (DENVER plays 'em next week).

Since 2000, DECEMBER home teams playing off a SU home non-division win as DOGS of 3 > points (TEXANS) have gone 6-1 O/U. With the home UPSET win over the Bucs last week, HOUSTON is a qualifier tonight.

In the last 12 months, Road teams (DENVER) playing off a home game are 12-2 O/U when facing an opponent with the exact same W/L record (Both teams tonight have identical 6-7 SU records).

In the last 2 years, NFL teams with a gameline of 3 < points are 18-4 O/U after a game in which they scored 34 > points (DENVER).

In the last 12 months, NFL teams playing off a game with 0 turnovers (BRONCOS) have gone 19-5 O/U.... and 11-2 O/U as favorites (DENVER)

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Charlies Sports Members Section

nfl. denver @ houston undr 47 (500* )
nfl. denver-1 (30*)
cbb. miami fl+5' (20*)
nba. lakers pending (20*)
nba. washington @ miami over 204 (10*)
nba. miami-5' (10*) free play

FADE AWAY

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