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MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK NEWSLETTER NFL pick

Houston Texans Over Denver Broncos By 3 Points

Denver 0-10 off SU win vs opp off DD SU dog win
HOUSTON SU winner 11-0 vs AFC WEST opp (3-0 this year)


LT's Lock Of The Day


The LOCK: The Texans +1

The STREAK: 2 losses

The RECORD: 529-427-21


Jim Rich

Texans Under (47)


Kevin O'Neil (the Max)

Under DENVER/HOUST


Winning Points

Broncos


Paul Leiner

Sport: CBB

Game: Mississippi State/Miami

Prediction: 5* Miami +6


Frank Patron Comp

Sport: NBA

Game: Washington at Miami

Prediction: Washington Wizards +5.5

Michael Cannon comp

Lay the points with the Heat tonight when they host the Wizards.
This is Miami's first game back from a grueling West Coast trip that featured six games in nine days.

The Heat have had three days to rest and prepare however, and should be able to crank it up against an injured Wizards team missing Gilbert Arenas.

Washington doesn't play good defense which should help Dwyane Wade slice through the lane for easy buckets or dunks from Shaquille O'Neal.

Lay the points with Miami as they grab the home win and cover.

Drew Gordon comp

Take Miami comfortably over Washington in this NBA match up


Tony Mathews comp

Matchup: San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Selection: San Antonio/Los Angeles Over


R&R Totals comp

Montreal @ Philadelphia 7:05 PM EST
Play On: UNDER THE TOTAL


James Patrick Sports comp

Davidson


Brad Diamond Sports Comp

Play On: San Antonio


Gamblers Data comp

Washington Wizards +5.5

Jeff Benton

Thursday's NFL two-fer ...

15 Dime: TEXANS (plus the points vs. Broncos)

10 Dime: Texans-Broncos OVER the total ... NOTE: Bet the total early, as it always goes up on these singular NFL prime-time games!


Texans

I absolutely cannot comprehend the line movement in this game. Why is all the money coming in on the Broncos? Because they’re still “in the playoff hunt”? Please. Denver has no shot at the last AFC wild-card spot and would need a complete collapse by the Chargers to overtake San Diego in the AFC West. And besides, like the Broncos, the Texans are “mathematically alive” in the playoff chase, too.

So I don’t buy into the whole playoff motivation angle. Nor do I buy into the Broncos having turned the corner because they’re coming off their most dominating performance of the season, last week’s 41-7 home win over Kansas City. That’s because the Chiefs are among the fifth worst teams in the NFL right now. And prior to that win, Denver lost back-to-back road games to the Raiders (34-20) and Bears (34-37), two teams with a combined record of 9-17.

In fact, the Broncos are just 4-7 in their last 11 games, with two of the wins coming against the Chiefs and another being a home victory over the freefalling Titans. Also, if you take away a road win at Kansas City (a joke) and a last-second 15-14 win at Buffalo in Week 1 – when kicker Jason Elam sprinted onto the field and barely got the kick off before time expired – and here’s what the Broncos have done on the road: 38-20 loss at the Colts, 44-7 loss at Detroit, 37-34 loss at Chicago, 34-20 loss at the Raiders. In their six road games, the Broncos are giving up – are you ready for this? – 29.7 points per game!

So again, I ask you, why all the money on Denver? It’s not like Houston is terrible. In fact, the Texans have the same 6-7 record that the Broncos have. Also, they’re 4-2 at home following last week’s 28-14 win over playoff-bound Tampa Bay, which was 8-4 going into last week’s game. And if not for a last-second 38-36 loss to the division-rival Titans, the Texans would be riding a four-game home winning streak right now. (Besides the loss to the Titans, Houston’s only other home setback was a 30-24 defeat to the Colts!).

Also, while the Broncos are surrendering nearly 30 points per game on the road, Houston is giving up just 19 points per game at home, holding the Bucs (14) and Saints (10) to a total of 24 points in the last two home contests.

And I haven’t even mentioned the fact that this game pits former Broncos offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, now in his second year at the helm of the Texans, against former mentor Mike Shanahan. Think Kubiak isn’t aware of his former boss’s tendencies?

Bottom line: This is as big a game as the Texans have ever played, as a win here would get them to .500 this late in a season for the first time in franchise history. Trust me: They’ll be ready to play, and they’ll expose the Broncos like the fraud that they are. Play Houston.


Broncos-Texans OVER the total

I know I just sung the praises of Houston’s defense, and it has been solid for the most part at home. But the Broncos, who have averaged 31.2 points in their last five games, are going to score in this game. Thing is, they’re going to give up a ton of points, too. Denver has surrendered 34 points or more five times in the last 10 weeks, including four times in their last five road games!

Also, check out these trends: The over is 11-2 in Broncos games this year, including 6-0 in the last six. The combined point totals in those six games: 48, 54, 71, 54, 38 and 51. Meanwhle, the Texans have topped the total in consecutive games, and the over is 8-1 in Houston’s last nine December contests and 8-2-1 in its last 11 as an underdog (and I fully expect the Texans to go off as an underdog tonight).

Finally, both teams enter this contest with red-hot quarterbacks in Denver’s Jay Cutler and Houston’s Sage Rosenfels, both of whom have quarterback ratings in the 90s.

Throw in the fact that this game is being played in a climate-controlled

Iceman

Pick on PITTSBURGH.

Although they got crushed at Philadelphia on Tuesday, the Penguins are still fairly pleased with the results of their recent road trip. Indeed, they swept Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver in Sidney Crosby's Western Canada debut. The Penguins have been hot lately and Ottawa also played last night and had to travel. Lets play the Pittsburgh Penguins

THE MAXX / Kevin O'Neill

NFL
Broncos @ Texans under 47

This is a meaningful game for this pair of 6-7 teams, as if the season was over right now, a 7-6 team would be an AFC Wild Card team. Though there are teams ahead of them, the winner will move to 7-7and will still be alive (though in need of help) in the playoff chase. With relatively inexperienced teams, especially at quarterback, playing in a meaningful big game, don't be surprised at all if both of these coaches go conservative and have trouble trusting their young play callers. Mike Shanahan in particular may struggle to cut Jay Cutler loose. Cutler is a much better quarterback at home than he is on the road, with a 12/6 TD to INT ratio at home but struggling on that road with only 5 touchdown passes to 6 interceptions. Denver?s D is playing better than people realize.   

On Sunday 10 of Kansas City?s 12 possessions were 3 plays or less. And
while that was against a horrendously weak offense,they're previous two games weren't nearly as poordefensively as it appeared.At Oakland, turnoverinside of their own territory led to 31 of the Raiders 34 points, and at Chicago you?ll recall that specialteams miscues resulted in three Bears TD's.Sage Rosenfels has played better than Matt Schaub (higher rating, better TD/INT ratio) and with Schaub's dislocated shoulder, the backup is supposed to go again here. But when you look inside the Texans box score on Sunday, it does not inspire confidence that an offensive surge is on the way.

The Texans scored four TD's on Sunday, and three involved events other than impressive offensive drives. Houston scored on a kickoff return for a touchdown to start the second half and two of their touchdown drives were 23 and 17 yards. they gained less than 4 yards per play on Sunday in what on the surface seems to be an offensively productive win but was actually anything else.

Meanwhile their young defense continues to be better than people realize. With both teams possessing better D?s than people realize, young unproven quarterbacks in a big game, and these twoteams playing games with a lot of accidental points lately, well look for this game to go under the total.

Drew Gordon
Thursday Plays:

1. 300,000* Texans
2. 50,000* Miami-Florida

1. Texans- After watching the Broncos dominate the Chiefs 41-7 last Sunday in Denver, I can understand why the public seems to love them tonight in Houston, but like most cases where the public is in love with a team... They're dead-wrong and here's why:

For all of those people backing Denver tonight, did you forget to watch the Broncos on the road this season?! Losses at Oakland, Chicago, Detroit, and Indy come to mind! In fact, did you know Denver has covered only one road game this season, at the sorry-ass Chiefs! Guys, if you saw the Broncos last road game, where they got crushed by the Raiders 34-20, how can you possibly side with Denver in this game?!
The teacher versus pupil angle is being way overplayed in this one, but there is some credence to the fact both teams run similar offenses, so you'd expect them to be familiar with eachothers systems. Difference is the Texans defense is excellent at home, allowing just 19 ppg, while the Denver defense falls asleep on the road, allowing a whopping 29 ppg when they travel!

Finally, while a lot is being made of Sage Rosenfels starting for the Texans, let's not forget, the guy is 2-0 in place of Schaub, and is coming off an excellent game versus a rock-solid Bucs defense. He not only completed 75% of his passes, but threw for 3 TDs and no picks, raising his overall QB rating for the season to 91.3 (4 points higher than Schaub)... So don't tell me the guy can't get the job done tonight, because he's proven more than adequate.

Bottom line, while I expect a close game here, the Broncos are garbage on the road, and eventually their lack of focus defensively costs them this game. Cutler is still vulnerable in hostile environments (see Raiders game - 50% completion, 0 TDs 2 picks) and with both teams on the outside looking in, the pressure is too much for Denver's young gun in Houston tonight.

Take the Texans plus the points over the Broncos as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Miami-Florida- Got to love the Hurricanes in this spot for several reasons, but none bigger than the fact they're outstanding basketball right now, sitting at 8-0 SU and 5-0 ATS, make no mistake, the Bulldogs are in for a battle tonight.

Guard-heavy Mississippi State is at a disadavantage against a 'Canes team built around tough perimeter defense, allowing 58 ppg on just 36% shooting (27% from 3-point) this season. Jamont Gordon is clearly the Bulldogs best option, but with Miami keying on him, I'm not convinced this Bulldogs team has another consistent threat.
Down-low the edge clearly goes the Hurricanes, as senior C King and forwards Asbubry and Collins are all rock-solid players. Whereas the Bulldogs rely on F Charles Rogers for most their frontline scoring, but have very little after him. Rogers will have his hands full all game, which eventually will wear him down.

Finally, one edge that cannot be ignored is Miami's depth compared to a very shallow Mississippi State bench. Bulldogs rotate about 7 players, but that includes several players averaging under 5 ppg... In other words, after their top-4 the drop-off in talent in significant. Look for Miami to take advantage when the Bulldogs go to their bench.

Bottom line, while Mississippi State may be at home, this Hurricanes team is not going down without a fight. Miami already went to Providence and got the 64-58 win, and although a tougher match up, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they pull out the upset tonight in Starkville.

Take Miami-Florida plus the points over Mississippi State in this college hoops match up.

Tony Weston comp

Coming into this season one could say there were high expectations for both the Miami Heat and Washington Wizards. The Heat have struggled this season, especially early on without Dwayne Wade. And the Wizards took a step back with the loss of Gilbert Arenas.

Wade’s back and Arenas is not. However, the Heat are still only 6-15 SU this season, while the Wiz are only 11-10.

After a six-game road trip that took them out west to take on some of the best teams in the Western Conference, the Heat finally play a home game for the first time since Nov. 30.

But that may not be a good thing as the Heat are 3-5 ATS at home this season, while the Wizards are 6-4 ATS on the road.

Washington is also 6-4 ATS its L10 games and 5-1 ATS its L6.

Over their L5 games both Miami and Washington are putting up strong offensive numbers with the Wizards averaging 103.8 points per game and the Heat averaging 107.4 in that five-game span. However, Washington is playing a little better defensively, giving up only 96.4 points a contest to Miami’s 109.8.

The Heat’s inability to get back and play some D will be key tonight.

The Wizards will light up the scoreboard and run past the home team.

Go with Washington on the road tonight.

2* WIZARDS (1* to 5* Scale)

Tony Stoffo

Florida Panthers vs. St. Louis Blues (NHL) - 8:35 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -150 St. Louis Blues Play Title: 15 Unit NHL Game of the Month

One of my top rated situational trends in the NHL goes here favoring the Blues for tonight. Play On - Home Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (St Louis) - after a close loss by 1 goal in their previous game against opponent after losing their previous game in overtime. This powerful trend as gone 39-5 over the past 5 seasons hitting at an incredible 89% Plus is a perfect 3-0 already this season. Plus add in the fact that the Panthers are 13-42 in road games during the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons makes St Louis my highly recommended play for tonight

ATS LOCK

4 Denver -1 1/2
Hoops
3 Lakers -4 1/2

ATS FINANCIAL

3 Over 47 Denver
Hoops
3 Washington +6