Tuesday Service Picks and Consensus Reports

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WINNING POINTS

NBA

Tuesday, December 11

*Cleveland over Indiana by 5
Maybe the Pacers will catch a break and Jermaine O?Neal (check status) won?t be able to play. He?s only been a shade of his former self this season. O?Neal?s low-post presencedoesn?t fit in with new coach Jim O?Brien?s fast-paced style. Indiana won five of its first six games without O?Neal, who has been battling a knee injury. The Pacers have averaged 108 points during this span and have defeated Dallas and Denver. They were held to 90 points or less five times during November ? all five times O?Neal was in the lineup. CLEVELAND 110-105.

*Washington over Minnesota by 8
Al Jefferson has emerged as a solid double/double man, averaging better than 20
points and 11 rebounds through the month of November. Unfortunately for
Minnesota, there is little else. The Timberwolves are 17-41-2 ATS heading into
December. The Wizards were 5-4 in their first nine games without Gilbert Arenas.
WASHINGTON 112-104.

Toronto over *Atlanta by 2
The Raptors have the superior guard depth, especially at point guard with T.J. Ford
and Jose Calderon. TORONTO 103-101.

*New Jersey over Los Angeles Clippers by 4
The Nets are banged-up in the fore-court, the Clippers have backcourt injuries. The
Clippers had failed to cover nine of their last 10 games entering December. NEW
JERSEY 101-97.

Detroit over *Memphis by 4
Often overvalued by the bookmaker, the Pistons have failed to cover 14 of their last
21 through Dec. 1. The Grizzlies have three shot-blockers with Pau Gasol, Stromile
Swift and Darko Milicic. DETROIT 110-106.

**PREFERRED
Seattle over *Chicago by 1
The Sonics have some serious deficiencies, with lack of a reliable point guard being
perhaps their No. 1 headache. But the team is better than the linesmaker often gives
them credit for and getting away from their unsettled and negative home situation
could be a positive thing. The Bulls opened with 10 losses in their first 13 games.
There is concern the players are turned off by Scott Skiles? in-your-face coaching style.Ben Wallace has regressed and Ben Gordon?s shots haven?t been dropping. Chicagoisn?t nearly good enough to cover a medium pointspread without a strong effort.
SEATTLE 103-102.

**PREFERRED
*Utah over Portland by 16
Expect the Jazz to be fired-up since this is their only home game during a five-game
stretch. Carlos Boozer (check status) is turning into an MVP possibility, averaging better than 25 points and 11 rebounds through November. The Jazz have covered six of their first eight home games, while the Trail Blazers were 2-6 away from the Rose
Garden heading into December. UTAH 114-98.

San Antonio over *Golden State by 5
After dropping their first six games, the Warriors have gotten hot capturing eight of
their last nine through November. However, they still ranked second-from-last in
defense allowing 107.9 points per game, while the Spurs ranked in the top five defensively.We prefer defense over offense. SAN ANTONIO 102-97

WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE HOOPS

Tuesday, December 11

Bradley over Wright State* by 7
Central Florida* over UL-Lafayette by 1

Southern Illinois* over St. Mary?s by 7
St. Mary?s won?t defend the Salukis as well as USC and Indiana did and the Gaels had way too many free throws in non-conference home wins vs. Oregon and Seton Hall to not be skeptical about. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, 68-61.

Valparaiso* over Evansville by 5

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WUNDERDOG COMP NHL PLAY

Game: Tampa Bay at Montreal (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Montreal -1.5 goals +190 (puckline)

Tampa Bay is 11-5 at home but just 2-12 on the road! While scoring 3.5 goals per game at home, they average just 2.4 on the road - a 1.1 goal difference. On defense, it gets worse. They give up just 2.3 goals per game at home but 4.1 per game on the road - a whopping 1.8 goals per game difference! Montreal is no defensive stalwart but it doesn't matter as the Lightning are 3-9 this year vs. defenses allowing 2.9+ goals per game. Montreal on the puckline here.

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Fairway Jay

Utah/Portland Over 202

Utah has been ‘Jazz-ed’ the past three weeks, on an 8-0 ‘over’ the total run. Yet tonight’s total has dipped down to 202 with Portland’s leading scorer and rebounder LaMarcus Aldridge out for a week. Still, the Blazer’s are playing more efficient with Brandon Roy at the point, as he can both create shots for his teammates and score. Portland is just 1-9 on the road and defensively they ‘give it up’, with recent results showing 106, 105 and 100 points allowed to modest scoring teams. Utah remains one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA, but still allow a high opponent FG percentage. They remain on top of their division and return home following three straight road losses and on a 0-4 ATS run. Look for Boozer, Brewer, Kirilinko and Okur to get plenty of chances inside tonight as Deron Williams set the tone for the Jazz offense following his career high 41 points in recent defeat to Dallas. Play ‘over’ the total.

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Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CBB (6-0 run since Nov 23!)

My Oddsmaker's Error is on Bradley at 7:00 ET. Wright St has played just five games this year and is coming off a HUGE 43-42 win over previously unbeaten Butler on Saturday. The win was very impressive, as the Bulldogs were pointing to their game with the Raiders, who had knocked them off twice last year (keeping the Bulldogs from the Horizon title). Wright St misses conference P-O-Y DeShaun Wood, who started all 119 games in his career and averaged 36 MPG last season. Two sophs man the backcourt TY, Brown (15.4-5.0) and Duggins (14.0-3.8), while the 6-6 Wilson (11.2-5.2) and the 6-8 Pleiman (6.4-5.8) are the best frontcourt players. Wright St really goes just six-deep and will have matchup problems with Bradley. Bradley was a Sweet 16 team two years ago and LY won 22 games. Ten players have appeared in all nine games this year and Bradley's perimeter game is superb. Seniors Ruffin (16.4-3.6-7.0) and Crouch (14.6-3.1-2.9) are joined by soph Warren (10.3), plus swingman Wilson (7.4-6.3) and the 6-7 Salley (5.4-5.0) round out the starting five. The 7-0 Collins ()7.1-4.4) gives Bradley height that Wright St can't match. Bradley is 6-3 but two of those losses have come vs No. 10 Michigan St (66-61) and unbeaten and 23rd-ranked Vandy. The other loss came in the Braves' first game, a trip to Illinois-Chicago where Bradley shot just 41 percent (8-of-28 on threes), while Illinois-Chicago shot 54 percent, including 9-of-13 behind the arc. Bradley CRUSHED Wright St last year 88-49 and with Wright coming off the Butler win, will win handily again tonight! Oddsmaker's Error on Bradley.

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Larry Ness | NBA Sides

CHI -8.5

Analysis: Following a miserable start, the Bulls thought they were turning the corner with four wins in five games. Chicago ranked last in the NBA in scoring (86.5 PPG) and FG percentage (38.5) while losing 10 of its first 12 games. Over their next five contests, the Bulls began to look better, scoring 97.6 points and shooting 43.7 percent to go 4-1 in that stretch. However, their offensive struggles returned Saturday, as they shot 36.0 percent in a 92-81 loss to Boston. The Bulls have been held under 40.0 percent 11 times this season, matching their total from all of last season. The main culprits have been guards Gordon and Hinrich. After shooting a career-best 45.5 percent in 2006-07, Gordon's shot a career-worst 37.3 percent this season. Hinrich averaged a career-best 16.6 PPG last year (shot 44.8 percent) but is down to 10.3 PPG this year, while shooting 35 percent. Despite Saturday's loss, Chicago can be encouraged that it came against one of the league's best defensive teams. The Bulls' only two losses since returning from a 1-5 road trip have come against Boston (league-best 17-2 record) and Dallas, which led the NBA with 67 wins last season. Tonight's opponent is the Sonics, who are 6-15, including 2-8 on the road. This is the "right" team at the "right" time for the Bulls. Lay the points.

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Lenny Del Genio | CBB Sides

free pick522 Southern Ill. -4.5 (-110) BetUS vs 521 St. Mary's (Cal.)

Analysis:
Play on Southern Illinois at 8:05 ET. We cant see the Salukis losing a fourth straight game when favored, even if it is against a 7-0 foe. That unbeaten opponent, St. Marys, is making its first road trip of the season and is running into a SIU team that will refocus on the defensive end and hand the Gaels their first loss of the season. For a team that finished 11th in the polls LY and is coming off six-straight 20+ win seasons, the Salukis are too good to let this one get away from them, especially considering their recent 80-4 SU home mark. Take Southern Illinois.

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Rocketman 3* CBB

3* Southern Illinois Salukis -4.5

Southern Illinois is allowing only 60.5 points per game overall this year. Southern Illinois is 3-1 SU and ATS overall vs St Mary's since 1997. ST MARYS-CA is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game since 1997. ST MARYS-CA is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals since 1997. S ILLINOIS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games since 1997. We'll play Southern Illinois for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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Frank Rosenthal

NBA
503 WOLVES+9 SB
509 PISTONS-5 SB
UNDER 205 SB
514 JAZZ-13 SB+

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Vegas Expert
Tom Freese

Game: Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz Dec 11 2007 9:05PM

Prediction: Utah Jazz

Reason: Utah is 14-3-1 ATS their last 18 home games as favorites. The Jazz are 9-3 ATS their last 12 home games vs. Portland and they are 5-1 ATS as favorites of 11 or more points. The Trailblazers are 1-6 ATS with one day of rest and they are 1-7 ATS away vs. a team that has a better than .600 winning percentage at home. Play On UTAH

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RF ( THE HULK)

3-Unit Play. Take #517 Bradley (-1.5) over Wright State (7 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 11)
Weʼre catching Wright State in a letdown situation here after their big win over Butler on Saturday. The Raiders have been less than impressive to this point of the season as they still adjust to the loss of Deshaun Wood to graduation. Bradley has already scored road wins at Loyola-Chicago and they beat Wright State by 39 points at home last year.

1.5-Unit Play. Take First Half: #524 Valparaiso (-7) over Evansville (8 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 12)
Valpo has been red hot lately and they should exact revenge over an Evansville squad that beat them just last year. The Crusaders have gotten off to hot starts recently, covering their last four halftime lines by taking leads of eight, four, 13 and 14 into the break. The Aces have been spotty on the road, and are just 1-2 versus the halftime line on the road. I think that this one is a blowout and I think that Valpo dominates from start to finish. But our money goes on a hot start for the home team.

1-Unit Play. Take First Half: #520 Central Florida (-7) over Louisiana-Lafayette (7 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 11)
Lafayette isnʼt very good to begin with. But when you mix in an 11-day layoff and an opponent that has played five of its last six games against teams in the RPI 100 and I think you have the makings of a blowout here. The Cajuns donʼt have the athletes to keep up with the Knights in this one and I see it getting out of hand in a hurry. UCF has won its four home games by an average of 13.8 points and are 10-2 ATS after a loss.

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Thanks for picking up the slack while the hogs on break

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77% Avoid Me
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LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): EVANSVILLE vs VALPARAISO

Play: VALPARAISO -10 ( WITH A HOOK)
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: VALPARAISO -10 ( WITH A HOOK)^^^^ This is the advantage of purchasing early as we get this out to you in the early AM. We are going to take full advantage of this generous opening line. It starts out at 10.5 so purchase a hook and get it to 10 as that's a number we always like when we have a big spread. For tonight's action it's really a simple breakdown for handicapping so early in the season. Bottom line is you face many unknowns to start a new season in any sport and the easiest way to counter act that is to go with experience. We have an overwhelming edge there with Valparaiso who return all five of their starters from last years team giving us experience balance and cohesiveness. Evansville is a bi-polar opposite losing 3 of their 4 best scorers from last years team. Evansville has been struggling to say the least to adjust to the changes. Both teams have two common opponents already this early in the season. Austin Peay who Evansville beat by 10 points and Valparaiso beat by 14 and Ball State who Evansville struggled to beat by one point and Valparaiso dominated winning by 13 points. Evansville averages 58.4 points while Valparaiso averages 74.3 points. We have the more experienced team in what looks to be the better offensive minded team and we get them on their home court taking advantage of the opening line. Purchase that hook as once again we are being very line specific here. We are willing to see it go to 11 but to insure the win, we'd like to see out clients protected and take the 10 and lets cash this one in tonight on Valparaiso
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) LATE ADDITION SELECTION: SEATTLE vs CHICAGO

Play: SEATTLE +8.5 (NBA)
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) LATE ADDITION SELECTION: Always check back by 7pm est week days and 6pm est on the Week ends. Always remember that plays posted early are always LVTR primary plays. Today's Late addition play is : SEATTLE IN NBA +8.5 ( Seattle is 9-2 ATS at Chicago and the Sonics are 5-2 vs spread in their last seven games )

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Larry Ness' Late-Breaking NBA Play (3:00 ET update!)

My Late-Breaking Play is on the GS Warriors at 10:35 ET. The Spurs are off two big wins without Duncan, first against the hated-Mavs (97-95) and then the Jazz (104-98). Ginobili stepped up in both games with 37-point efforts and now leads the team in scoring at 21.1 PPG (4.8 RPG and 4.5 APG). Parker (20.6-6.8 AP{G) is not far behind, with Duncan at 17.6-8.9. Duncan is expected to play in Oakland tonight and considering that since drafting Duncan first overall in 1997, the Spurs are 33-5 against the Warriors (19-0 in San Antonio and 14-5 in Oakland), the Spurs are the play, right? WRONG! I expect Duncan to be less than 100 percent for this one and while the Spurs' depth is usually a HUGE advantage for them against most teams, that's NOT the case against the very deep Warriors. Davis (23.1-5.2-8.4) and Jackson (21.8-4.8-4.0) are the stars but four other players are in double digits, plus Pietrus (7.9) and Barnes (7.7) are close. Guard Ellis (16.5) has is shooting touch back and forward Harrington (14.8-5.6) loves playing with this team. SF Azubuike, who played in just 41 games as a rookie averaging 7.1 PPG, has played in almost as many minutes this year in 20 games (603) as he did in all of LY (689), while posting averages of 13.2-5.0. Then there's center Biedrins (11.-0-10.0), who is averaging a double-double! Another key here is that while the Spurs have typically been near the top in opponents FG percentage, this year they rank 23rd, allowing 46.5 percent. That's NOT good news vs a team that's averaging 110.4 PPG! Late Breaking Play on the GS Warriors.

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Wunderdogsports (nba)

Game: Minnesota at Washington (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 196.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Washington is 11-8 OVER overall and 6-4 OVER at home this season. They are scoring 103.4 per game here while allowing 101. Minnesota is an awful team, but it's really their defense, not their offense. The Wolves are averaging 93 ppg both on the road and at home - not great but not terrible. They are allowing opponents 102 ppg. They are getting to the free throw line 20 times per game and Washington is 20-5 OVER the past two seasons vs. teams shooting 24 or fewer free throws per game. The Wizards are also 8-1 OVER after scoring 100+ points in two straight games.

Game: Toronto at Atlanta (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Atlanta +135 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 5.4)

The Hawks have won three straight, capped off by our moneyline pick on them yesterday (won outright as a 9.5 point dog). They have been a winning team at home all season, playing to a 6-5 mark which includes 4-1 in their last five. The Raptors are not off to the type of start many believed they would be, as they are hovering around .500 at 11-10. Part of the reason is their road play, which has seen them drop four of their last five. Home wins against Dallas and Phoenix show this team is capable of winning at home against good competition so we will ride the Hawks to again get the SU win.

Game: Detroit at Memphis (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 204.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Detroit is scoring this year. They are averaging 100 ppg and actually scoring more on the road than at home. Their defense remains great at home, but is average on the road (95.3 ppg allowed). Memphis can score with anyone. They are averaging 103 ppg and 110 per game at home, while allowing 106 per game. There's no way they keep Detroit under 100 and likely not under 110. And we think the Grizzlies also get to triple-digits. While 8-2 UNDER on the road, Memphis is 7-2 OVER at home this season and 31-18 OVER at home dating back to last season. That includes an 11-2 OVER mark when the total is between 200 and 210. Detroit is 8-3 OVER on the road!

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Greg Shaker....

double-dime bet Wright St / Bradley Under 139.5 BetUS
Analysis: NCAAB: Bradley Braves at Wright State Raiders - Under 139.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES

Note: These two teams played last year at Bradley and in that game we saw 137 points scored. However, the Braves got 88 of that and absolutely crushed this Raider team. But that was on the road where the Wright State offense has not been as prolific as it is here at home. What I mean by that is that they don't control the tempo as well when they travel, but they do here in a big way. They have certainly got to do that tonight and they certainly do know. This team can be as slow paced as anyone in the country with most games seeing 110 shots or less. Their last game verses Butler just 88 taken in what we all expected to be a yawner. That was with Butler, a team much like theirs. Wright took just 38 of those, and if they have their way tonight we will see them control the pace and work for the good shot. That "Good Shot" is going to be the 3 pointer in many cases and they can shoot the Big Shot well. They will have to to beat this very good Braves Squad. We have seen teams that possess good D slow down Bradley this year, including Iowa, Loyola Chicago, and Iowa State. All of those games went UNDER the Total, and all games saw a low number of shots taken. Certainly Michigan State did the same just the other day on 114 shots and just 127 points scored on a 144 Total. If you allow the Braves to play their kind of game, they are going to beat you. I doubt that Wright State has enough horses to win this game, but I know they know that and they will be using Mules tonight, and lot's of halfcourt and a D that is #90 out of 341 NCAA Teams this year. Barring outstanding shooting we should see a total end in the 120's. Play down to 134.

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Vegas Runner

Tue, 12/11/07 - 7:00 PMvegas-runner | CBB Sides
triple-dime bet518 Wright St 2.0 (-110) Bodog vs 517 Bradley
Analysis:

** 3* NCAABB PLAY of the DAY **

Allright gentlemen, this is the 3* for tonight's NCAABB Action, and as soon as I saw this number posted...the first thing I thought, is that the wrong team is favored...Bradley came into the season with 7 new faces that they need to get playing as one team and although they are 6-3 so far this season, they are only 2-2 on the road, and at the college level, it remains the toughest part of a successful season...Wright St was fortunate to get 3 of their main part back for another run at the Horizon League Title and although they are only 3-2 so far this year, expect them to be in the mix, all the way to the end...

Wright St is 3-1 at home and is shooting 44% from the field and allowing only 40% FG by their opponents, which shows just how well this team plays defense...they are able to get to the line about 19-20 times per game and connect on almost 80% of those attempts...their 3 Pt shooting is excellent, as they are able to hit 47% from beyond the arc this year at home...the one other fact that I found which shows me just how well this team is capable of playing at times, is their ability to control the ball and not make those costly mistakes which turn into easy buckets...in fact they average only 12 TO per game which is just excellent...they should also have some success tonight from the perimeter, as Bradley is allowing 40% 3pt shooting against them...and with Wright St finally having some very decent size down low for the first time in years...we should be able to get the win and cash in on a nice 3* Wager...our first this week in the college ranks...

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EZ Winners

NBA

1 STAR: (506) ATLANTA (+3) over Toronto
(Risking $110 to win $100)

1 STAR: (507) LA CLIPPERS (+6) over New Jersey
(Risking $110 to win $100)

1 STAR: (511) SEATTLE (+8.5) over Chicago
(Risking $110 to win $100)


NCAA Hoops

1 STAR: (521) ST. MARY'S (+4.5) over Southern Illinois
(Risking $110 to win $100)

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WILL SYKE'S IS NOW 19-10 ON FREE PLAYS
FOR TODAY:Minnesota vs Washington

MAJOR TRENDS
*Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
*SU winner has covered 9 of the L10 games in this matchup. (When Washington play as a home favorite, with a spread between 8 and 10.5, they're a awesome 37-1 SU since 1991)

COUNTER TRENDS
*Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference, BUT Timberwolves are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 vs. Eastern Conference.
*Timberwolves are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, BUT Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
*Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog, BUT Wizards are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.

COMPARING TRENDS
*Timberwolves are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Southeast, AND Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest.
*Wizards are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win, AND Timberwolves are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I'll hand the T-Wolves one trend that was standing out to me but won't even make a difference, its that the T-Wolves are 5-3 ATS on away, but that's only because they're getting some ridiculous lines like +11, +14, etc. This time these Wolves are in a horrible spot where they're 0-2 ATS off 2 days rest this year, which comes to another nice trend that the Timberwolves are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. Minnesota has the worst record in the NBA at 3-15 and one of those wins came on their last game beating the Phoenix Suns and snapping their 5 game winning streak when shooting 44% and the Suns shooting a slight better at 45%. The Wolves not only won that game (100-93)but they won by 7 points as 10 point underdogs, which then follows my point that the Wolves are horrendous 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win and at the same time they're are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. In that game they did score 100 points which comes to another bad trend because the Timberwolves are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Now doesn't this game look too easy when first looking at it? That since the T-Wolves easily beat the Suns SU as dogs, they should be able to keep this game close and we should take the generous points against this mediocre Washington team with Gilbert Arenas out, thing is that the Wizards are a winning 8-4 ATS record with Gilbert out and the rest of the trends support big time in Washington's favor. Don't even think about taking these points, as this game has blowout written all over it and yup, you guessed it, those sneaky little oddsmakers are psyching you out into taking those points. Best thing here is to stick with Sykes and you won't be psyched.

Wizards -8.5

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Alex Smarts

Washington Wizards
-9.0 / 3 units

7:05p The Pres
Toronto Raptors
Atlanta Hawks
o185.0 (-110) / 3 units 3* - Toronto and Atl OVER 185

7:35p The Pres
Los Angeles Clippers
New Jersey Nets
u184.0 (-110) / 3 units 3* - NJ and LA Clippers UNDER 184

8:05p The Pres
Detroit Pistons
Memphis Grizzlies
o203.5 (-110) / 3 units 3* - Det and Milw OVER 203.5

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California Sports

NBA: NBA game of the month: 5* detroit (-5) 8:05est
CBB: 3* evansville (+11.5) 8:00est


Billy Coleman

NBA: 4* toronto (-3)

CBB: College basketball game of the month: 5* bradley (-1.5)
3* southern illinois (-4.5)

NHL: 3* San jose ( under 5)


Billy Coleman free 4 star: Toronto Raptors


Young Gun free 3 star is on Seattle Sonics

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