Saturday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports:

Saturday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports:

Saturday 11/10 Service Plays

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Northcoast Early Bird

AzSt -6.5
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NC Comp Power Plays 4*

Mizzou -19.5

6-4 this year
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Underdog POW

Oklahoma St +6
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NCoast Comp. #2 Economy Club. 16-8 Last 2 years

NCSt -3
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Northcoast Big Dogs

Utah State
Memphis.

NCoast CUSA GOW 6-3 this year

Houston +1

NCoast Comp big12 pow. 29-8 last 37
TTech +6.5

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Teddy Covers is 9-0 in his 1 game per week contest with the other cappers on the sports memo. His pick this week is

Oklahoma -37

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KELSO STUREGON (STAT NEWSLETTER)

Air Force, at Notre Dame, is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games this season.
Alabama, at Mississippi State, is 6-4 SU but just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games with Mississippi State and lost to the Bulldogs, 24-16, last year as a 14-point favorite.
Arizona State is 2-5 SU and ATS in its last 7 games with UCLA.
Arkansas is 2-5 SU but 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games with Tennessee.
Auburn is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last 5 games at Auburn.
Connecticut, at Cincinnati, is 6-0 SU and ATS in its last 6 games and was favored but once in those contests.
Duke, hosting Georgia Tech, has averaged just 10.0 points in its last four games.
Florida, at South Carolina, is 9-1 SU and 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games with the Gamecocks.
Florida International, hosting Louisiana Lafayette, is 0-4 SU and ATS in this series and overall has lost 21 straight games.
Florida State, at Virginia Tech, is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last 3 meetings with the Hokies.
Hawaii, hosting Fresno State, is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last 5 home games against the Bulldogs.
Illinois, at Ohio State, is 2-6 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games with the Buckeyes.
Kansas, 9-0 SU and 8-0 ATS this season, is at Oklahoma State and stands 0-5 SU and ATS in its last 5 games with the Cowboys.
Kentucky, at Vanderbilt, is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games with the Commodores.
LSU, hosting Louisiana Tech, is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 games this season.
Michigan, at Wisconsin, is 7-1 SU but just 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games with the Badgers.
Michigan State, at Purdue, is 0-4 SU and ATS in its last 4 road games against the Boilermakers.
Middle Tennessee, hosting Louisiana-Lafayette, is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games this season.
North Carolina, at N.C. State, is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS on its last 4 trips to Raleigh.
Oregon is 9-1 SU and ATS this season and is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at Arizona.
Southern California, at California, has played to the "under" in its last 7 games and in 8 of the nine games it has played this season

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chuck o luck college goy flor atlantic

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Vernon Croy

Penn State vs. Temple (NCAAF)
Nov 10, 2007 12:00 PM EST

Play: Penn State

Take Penn St. -24.5, The Nittany Lions roll over Temple Saturday afternoon since Temple's QB is out for the season and Temple's defense is terrible against the run allowing 173.8 rypg this season. Temple is 0-3 against BIG 10 opponents the last 3 seasons and the last time these teams met Penn St. won 47-0 last season. I look for pretty much the same result in this game with Penn St. covering this number by the half. The Nittany Lions defense allowed just 74 yards in their last meeting against Temple and their defense is very solid this season allowing an average of just 301 ypg.

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Johnny Detroit

Marshall +7 CFB

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gary greene / bluebook bports

Arizona State (-6) over ucla - BEST BET

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Dr Bob

3 Star Selection
***Air Force (-3.0) 27 NOTRE DAME 14
11:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
I resisted going against Notre Dame last week in a Best Bet on Navy because I thought perhaps the horrible Irish passing attack would have some success against the nation’s worst pass defense. That was certainly not the case, as Notre Dame averaged a shameful 3.4 yards per pass play and 4.2 yards per play against a Navy defense that would allow 8.8 yppp and 7.0 yppl on the road to an average offensive team. For the season the Irish have averaged a pathetic 3.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. That is the worst offensive rating of any team in recent years (worse than some bad Sun Belt teams even) and a solid Air Force defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team) isn’t likely to surrender much real estate to the Irish in this game. Notre Dame does have a solid defensive unit that has yielded 5.1 yppl to teams that wold combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit, but they’re not that much better than an Air Force attack that has been 0.3 yppl better than average so far this season. My math model gives Air Force a 58.9% chance of covering (based on the historical predictability of my model) and the Falcons also apply to a 66-15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Notre Dame’s only win this season came in a game against UCLA in which the Bruins’ 4th string quarterback turned the ball over 7 times while Notre Dame suffered no turnovers. In other words, Notre Dame is just no good enough to win a football game unless they get very lucky. The math and the strong indicator make Air Force a 63.8% play at -3 points and I’ll take Air Force in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less, 4-Stars at -2 ½ points (at -115 odds or less) and for 2- Stars from -4 ½ to -6 points.

2 Star Selection
**VIRGINIA TECH (-6.0) 27 Florida St. 13
12:30 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Virginia Tech has a history of playing well at home against other good teams, as evidenced by their 37-14-1 ATS record in home games when not favored by more than 14 points. The Hokies are fortunate to be facing Florida State with Drew Weatherford at quarterback instead of Xavier Lee. Lee was better than Weatherford last season and he was better than Weatherford this season. Lee has averaged 7.3 yards per pass play on his 130 pass plays this season despite facing teams that would only allow 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Weatherford, meanwhile, is as mediocre as ever, averaging just 6.3 yppp on 203 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB. Weatherford doesn’t throw as many interceptions as Lee does because he doesn’t throw the ball down the field, but Lee is the better overall quarterback even with the interceptions factored in. Florida State has been just average overall on offense this season (5.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Seminoles are 0.4 yppl worse than average with Weatherford at quarterback and they won’t have many scoring opportunities against a very good Virginia Tech defense that has yielded just 4.4 yppl this season to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team. Only very good offensive teams LSU and Clemson have scored more than 14 points against the Hokies and I don’t expect Florida State to reach that number today. The problem with Virginia Tech is an offense that has been 0.5 yppl worse than average this season. Pocket passer Sean Glennon has hit his stride the last 3 weeks after struggling early in the year. Glennon was replaced by freshman scrambler Tyrod Taylor after their loss to LSU, and while Taylor’s passing numbers are not nearly as good as Glennon’s his scrambling (40 rushing plays for 336 yards) makes up for the difference. Florida State’s defensive weakness is pass coverage, so I suspect Glennon will get the nod in this game – although it doesn’t matter much. Overall, the Seminoles are only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively, allowing 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Virginia Tech’s defense is 1.7 yppl better than Florida State’s offense while the Seminoles only have a 0.8 yppl advantage over the Hokies’ attack. Virginia Tech also has better special teams - although being without return star Eddie Royal is worth just over 1 ½ points - and my math model favors the Hokies by 10 ½ points in this game. Florida State is coming off their upset win over Boston College (a product of a +3 turnover margin) but that win sets them up in a very negative 9-42-1 ATS subset of a 54-120-2 ATS road letdown situation. Frank Beamer has never beaten Florida State, but this is the first time since 1989 that he gets the Seminoles in Blacksburg and I expect a fired up Hokies team today. I’ll take Virginia Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.

2 Star Selection
**SOUTHERN MISS (-15.5) 42 Memphis 18
01:30 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Memphis is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation and the Tigers certainly won’t be able to stop the running of Damion Fletcher (990 yards at 5.4 ypr) and quarterback Jeremy Young (6.0 yards per rushing play). Memphis has allowed 5.9 yards per rushing play for the season (against teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average team) and the Tigers have been especially porous the last 3 weeks since injuries have hit their linebacking corps. Quinton McCrary missed week 8 against Rice and was out again last week while LB Winston Bowen has missed the last two weeks and is out for the season. In those past 3 games the Tigers have allowed 8.0 yprp (to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp) and last week, the only game in which both linebackers were out, the they allowed a preposterous 491 rushing yards at 11.2 yprp to a mediocre East Carolina rushing attack. McCrary may return this week from his injured toe, but he won’t be enough to stop the Southern Miss rushing attack. The Memphis offense is 0.2 yppl worse than average with starting quarterback Martin Hankins in the game but Southern Miss is solid defensively for a CUSA team (they rate as average on a national scale), so the Tigers will have a tough time keeping up with what their defense gives up. My math model favors Southern Miss by 23 ½ points and the Eagles apply to a very good 53-14-1 ATS home favorite momentum situation following last week’s 37-7 win over UAB in Jeremy Young’s first game back from 4 game absence. Memphis has a history of playing better off a loss than off a win under coach West and they’re 9-1 ATS as an underdog of more than 7 points after a conference loss. That team trend is not nearly as strong as the general situation favoring Southern Miss but it will keep me from making this a 3-Star Best Bet. I’ll take Southern Miss in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 3-Stars at -14 or less.

2 Star Selection
**Florida (-6.5) 37 SOUTH CAROLINA 23
04:45 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
I’m sure Steve Spurrier would love to beat his old team, but the Gamecocks just aren’t as good as the Gators and Florida applies to a very strong 66-15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator while South Carolina applies to a negative 22-67-2 ATS situation. Florida’s offense is the best in the nation, averaging 7.0 yards per play against 8 Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow just 5.0 yppl to an average attack. South Carolina’s defense is very good at defending the pass, but Urban Meyer is smart enough to take advantage of a soft defensive front that has allowed 5.5 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp against an average defensive team. Arkansas ripped through that defense last week for 541 rushing yards at 9.3 yprp and the Gamecocks could be without leading tackler Emanuel Cook, who sprained his ankle early in the 2nd half last week, and starting CB Captain Munnerlyn (more likely to miss with a more severe ankle sprain). Overall South Carolina is 0.4 yppl better than average defensively and they are at a huge disadvantage against Florida’s multi-faceted attack. South Carolina’s offense has been just 0.1 yppl better than average this season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they won’t be able to run against the Gators, who have allowed just 3.8 yprp this season. The Gators have some trouble against the pass (6.3 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppp against an average team), but Gamecocks’ quarterback Blake Mitchell has actually been worse than average throwing the ball this season despite playing a bit better than average the last two weeks since getting his starting spot back. These teams both have a weakness on defense and rate about the same overall on that side of the ball, but Florida is MUCH better offensively and the Gators have better special teams. My math model favors Florida by 11 points and the technical analysis also favors the Gators in this game. The only negative is Florida’s 1-10-1 ATS mark as a regular season favorite away from home under coach Meyer, but Spurrier is just 2-5 ATS as a home dog at South Carolina and the angles are much more significant than the team trend against Florida. I’ll take Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.

Strong Opinion
TCU 21 BYU (-7.0) 23
06:00 PM Pacific, 08-Nov-07
TCU has certainly been a disappointment this season, but the Horned Frogs are not easy to beat with a defense that goes from very good to great with star DE Tommy Blake back in the starting lineup. Blake has only played in 4 games this season and the Horned Frogs have allowed 4.3 yards per play in those 4 games (to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team). Blake had missed 4 consecutive games prior to starting last week against New Mexico and TCU dominated a decent Lobos offense in allowing just 119 yards, 2.0 yppl and 0 points. BYU is only 0.3 yppl better than average offensively (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), so the Cougars are not going to have an easy time moving the football. TCU’s below average attack (5.0 yppl with starting QB Dalton in the game, against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) will also struggle against a BYU defense that has yielded just 4.8 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. Overall, TCU has a 1.0 yppl edge on BYU’s offense while the Cougars have a 1.0 yppl edge on the Frogs’ attack. TCU has the edge in special teams and I rate the Horned Frogs as the better team overall in this game. I would have considered TCU as a possible Best Bet in this game if not for the fact that Thursday night home favorites of 2 points or more on a winning streak are 39-16-2 ATS over the years. I’ll consider TCU a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Indiana (-2.0) 33 NORTHWESTERN 26
09:00 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Indiana is certainly not a great team, but the Hoosiers are a better than average team and they should be able to beat a sub-par Northwestern team today. Indiana is 0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), but they have an advantage over a Northwestern defense that has allowed 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average defense. Indiana also has a slight advantage when the Wildcats have the ball, as Northwestern is 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively while the Hoosiers are 0.1 yppl better than average on defense. Indiana also has an advantage in projected turnover with Kellen Lewis and his 9 interceptions in 10 games going up against Northwestern’s C.J. Bacher, who has thrown 14 picks in 10 games. The big difference in these teams is special teams, as the Hoosiers are better in all facets of special teams and have one of the most valuable place kickers in college football in Austin Starr (his kicking has been 1.4 points per game better than an average kicker, which is the best in the nation). My math model favors Indiana by 7 points and I’ll consider Indiana a Strong Opinion at -3 or less and I’d take Indiana in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.

Strong Opinion
TENNESSEE (pk) 35 Arkansas 30
09:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Arkansas won for me last week at home against South Carolina but that win sets up the Razorbacks in a very negative 93-185-5 ATS road letdown situation while Tennessee applies to a very good 132-50-6 ATS home momentum situation. Those situations combine to give Tennessee a very profitable 58.5% chance of covering at a fair line but the fair line on this game is Arkansas by 2 ½ points. The Volunteers still have a 54.1% chance of covering at pick, which is good enough to make them a Strong Opinion (it’s 55.6% at +1). I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at pick or better and I’d make the Volunteers a 2- Star Best Bet at +2 points or more (57.8% chance of covering).

Strong Opinion
MISSISSIPPI ST. 22 Alabama (-4.5) 21
09:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Mississippi State has already upset Auburn and Kentucky this season on the road and the Bulldogs have had an extra week to prepare for this game against an Alabama team that may be emotionally drained after blowing a lead last week to LSU. Teams coming off close losses to superior teams often suffer a letdown the next week while dwelling on what could have been and Mississippi State is not a team that Alabama will have an easy time getting up for. The Crimson Tide apply to a negative 64-145-1 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week’s close loss and Bama also applies to a negative 97-173-11 ATS road favorite situation. Mississippi State is good enough defensively to compete with Alabama in this game, as the Bulldogs are 0.4 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) while Alabama is 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season and are now even worse without two starting offensive linemen and their #2 running back likely to sit out their 3rd game due to suspension. Mississippi State’s offense is 0.8 yppl worse than average for the season and also 0.8 yppl worse than average with Wesley Carroll as the starting quarterback, but the Bulldogs are improved with Carroll, who has not thrown an interception in 137 pass attempts (the other quarterbacks threw 11 picks in the first 6 games). Alabama is good but not great defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team), so Miss State should have a few scoring opportunities. Mississippi State is only 7-13 ATS at home under coach Croom, but they’re 3-0 ATS as a home underdog after a bye week, so the Bulldogs should be ready to play. My math model favors Alabama by 5 points, so the line is fair, but I’d like to have some line value on my side. The situation is certainly strong enough against Alabama to consider Mississippi State a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points or more.

Strong Opinion
TULSA (pk) 41 Houston 35
12:00 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Tulsa has been hurt by turnovers this season (-11 in TO margin), which partly explains their 3-6 ATS record. However, the Golden Hurricane are a better team than Houston from the line of scrimmage and should win this game. Tulsa has been fantastic offensively this season, averaging 7.0 yards per play with starting quarterback Paul Smith on the field, against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. Smith has been particularly good in averaging 8.4 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback) and he’ll feast on a porous Houston pass defense that’s allowed 6.6 yppp this season despite facing teams that would combine to average only 5.4 yppp against an average defensive team. Overall, Houston rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively and Tulsa has a 1.4 yppl advantage when they have the ball. Houston’s offense ahs an advantage too, as the Cougars are 0.4 yppl better than average offensively (6.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl) while Tulsa rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average with top defensive back CB Roberts playing (the secondary was torched by UTEP when Roberts was out). Houston’s offensive advantage of 0.9 yppl isn’t as much as Tulsa’s 1.4 yppl advantage and the difference is even more with this game being played at Tulsa. Houston does have an advantage in projected turnovers and 3 points in special teams but my math model still favors Tulsa by 3 ½ points in this game. Tulsa applies to a solid 105-50-1 ATS home momentum situation, but the Hurricane doesn’t apply to the best part of that angle, so I won’t make Tulsa a Best Bet at the current line. If Houston becomes a favorite or pick then the Cougars would apply to a negative 93-185-5 ATS situation and that would certainly be enough, combined with the extra line value, to make Tulsa a Best Bet. I’ll consider Tulsa a Strong Opinion at -1 or pick and I’d take Tulsa in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.

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Doc's

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5 Unit Play. #27 Take Michigan -2 ½ over Wisconsin (Saturday 12:00 pm ESPN) Never like to go against Wisconsin @ Camp Randall, but feel we are getting a couple of points, since I felt the opening line should have been five. With this much discrepancy, I have to take a serious look at the roadster. The injuries are starting to take its toll on the Badgers, as DT Chapman is out, RT VanderHeuvel is doubtful, and CB Langford is out as well. RB Hill is questionable and many thought he would play last week, but choose not too. As for the Wolverines, they continue to get better with age, having not lost a game since Oregon on September 8th. They have a strong defense in which Wisconsin will struggle to move the football all day long. They will put pressure on Donovan and the Badgers inability to run the football is a real cause for problem. Look for Seniors Henne and Hart to make the difference as they want to enter their annual meeting with Ohio State undefeated in the Big Ten. This will be a low scoring game that the Wolves control from the onset. Michigan 20, Wisconsin 10.

4 Unit Play. #28 Take Under 46 ½ in Michigan @ Wisconsin (Saturday 12:00 pm ESPN) The Badgers are really banged up and Michigan still likes to pound the football with RB Hart. Michigan will control this game from the onset and we collect big with a side and total. Michigan 20, Wisconsin 10.

4 Unit Play. #36 Take Mississippi State +5 over Alabama (Saturday 12:30 pm ESPN Gameplan) Bulldogs have always been a dangerous team @ Wade Stadium and are coming off a bye week facing Alabama. The Tide is coming off a disappointing game to LSU last Saturday losing, 41-34. That being said that game should not have been that close, as the Tide were out gained, 475-254. The Bulldogs have held Bama without an offensive touchdown the past two years making the points very attractive in 2007, call the upset. Mississippi State 24, Alabama 21.

6 Unit Play. #55 Take Arizona State -7 over UCLA (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) PAC-10 Game of the Year. The Sun Devils lost their first game of the season last Saturday in Eugene; however, they did out gain the Ducks and had their chances. Now they are back on the road again in Los Angeles, a very laid back environment @ the Rose Bowl. They will face the Bruins, a team riddled with injuries and a Coach on the hot seat. The UCLA defense has been torched the last two weeks, giving up 61 combined points to the two bottom feeder PAC-10 teams, Washington State and Arizona. The Sun Devils still have a chance to return to the Rose Bowl with a win here and with a bye week looming, look for Coach Erickson to pour it on. UCLA season is coming apart and this will be the icing on the cake, as the Devils prevail in a big rout. Arizona State 35, UCLA 10.
4 Unit Play. #59 Take Florida State +6 over Virginia Tech (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) This game reminds me a lot of last week’s game that they Seminoles had with Boston College. FSU still has a rock solid defense to keep the scoring at a minimum, but is finally starting to see a high powered offense that resembled their strong teams in the 1990s. QB Weatherford had been benched early this season, but has came back playing exceptional football and now there is no question this is his job. Florida State won at Boston College and Boston College has already won at Virginia Tech. Coach Frank Beamer has never beaten Florida State and in fact the Hokies last win over the Seminoles came in 1975. Bowden and company upset Tech in 2005 despite being a 14-point underdog and expect a similar situation to occur on Saturday, although a Seminole victory would certainly not surprise this write. Florida State 24, Virginia Tech 20.

5 Unit Play. #79 Take Oklahoma State +6 over Kansas (Saturday 8:00 pm ABC) No question, Jawhawks are on a roll, but I was not too impressed with their performance last week against a team that has thrown in the towel. The Cowboys have an offense that can score points and they are not afraid of anyone in the country. They will be playing their third straight home game and last one of the year, so they will want to give their fans something to remember them by. The Hawks have not played anybody during the non-conference season and don’t play Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas Tech in conference. OK State’s powerful running attack will make the difference and that will make the difference. Oklahoma State 35, Kansas 30.

4 Unit Play. #91 Take Central Florida -21 over UAB (Saturday 7:30 pm CSTV) Two teams going in different directions here, as the Knights still have visions of winning the C-USA title and the Blazers cannot wait for this season to end. The Knights should be able to control this game on the ground and wear down a UAB team that has nothing left. UAB did not have much talent to start the season and what little they had is now gone. It is a simple rout and that is all there is too it. Central Florida 48, UAB10.

3 Unit Play. #110 Take Green Bay -6 over Minnesota (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) The NFC North Division appears to be going through Green Bay and the Packers look to sweep the Vikings yet again. Green Bay has won three straight games in this series and many of them have not been close. They will focus in on RB Peterson and make some other Vikings beat them. The Vikings defense is solid against the run but terrible against the pass and thus QB Favre should have a field day. Minnesota still does not have a quarterback and that does not bode well in the cold environment of Lambeau Field. If the Packers do not beat themselves by allowing the Vikings to score on defense, they will cruise to a double-digit victory. Green Bay 27, Minnesota 13.

3 Unit Play. #117 Take Cleveland +9 ½ over Pittsburgh (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) The Cleveland Browns have been the surprise team in the AFC and look to tie Pittsburgh for the division lead in the AFC North. Cleveland can throw the football with QB Anderson. Cleveland has not had much success in this series, but they will have revenge on their mind from an embarrassing performance in week one of the season. Pittsburgh has played a weak schedule to account for their success and already has losses to Arizona and Denver. This game will be much closer then what the experts think and Pittsburgh playing on a short week will come up flat. Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 24.

4 Unit Play. #128 Take New York Giants +1 ½ over Dallas (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) The NFC East is up for grabs on Sunday when the New York Football Giants try and even up this series at one game apiece. The home team has dominated this series, winning 22 of the last 33 meetings ATS (one push). When these teams met earlier in the season, the Giants were banged up on defense, but they will be coming off a bye after their victory over Miami in London. The Giants have a strong pass defense that will be able to pressure QB Romo. The Cowboys have played a weak schedule to amass most of their victories in 2007 and their luck is about to run out on Sunday, as the Giants win this game by a botched field goal and move into first place in the East. New York 27, Dallas 24.

We received a few complaints this week, stating that we were not truthful with our NFL selections recently. I can assure you that is not the case and we never advertise any streaks that are not true. If we did, we would not have any loyal customers. I have said it before and will continue to say that we are always a lot stronger in college then in the NFL. If we have a good week in the NFL, we will certainly not be putting comments like, "We own the NFL" and so forth. I would encourage you to read my article (4th Down and Inches) each week, as I personally discuss the highs and lows of the previous weekend.

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Rightside Sports

Auburn +2
Kent -3'
Michigan -2'
N.C. State -3'
Clemson -9
Colorado -5
Tulsa -1
Tennessee pk
Missouri -19'
Hawaii -17
North Texas +15
Duke +13'

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Robert Ferringo

COLLEGE SELECTIONS
2.5-Unit Play. Take #206 Florida Atlantic (-7) over Arkansas State (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10)
Arkansas State hasn’t performed well against the top of the Sun Belt this year, getting outscored 51-7 by Troy and MTSU. ASU’s QB is 50-50 to play, and even if he is under center we have to wonder about his effectiveness. I’m looking for a big bounceback game for FAU in their final home game of the season.

4-Unit Play. Take #151 Auburn (+2) over Georgia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10)
The Bulldogs have peaked and I think that Auburn is the stronger, more battle-tested team here. Auburn is 7-0 ATS as an underdog and 14-4-1 ATS after a win by 20 points or more. Georgia is 4-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.

5-Unit Play. Take #118 Miami (-3.5) over Virginia (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10)
I think that the Cavaliers are all out of miracles and that they are going to get ambushed in the last Hurricanes game in the Orange Bowl. This is a special game for Miami and I think they’ll play inspired ball, much like they did against Texas A&M. Virginia is just 5-13 ATS as a road underdog.

4-Unit Play. Take #116 Purdue (-4) over Michigan State (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 10)
The Spartans just had their hearts ripped out by Michigan and I think this is a letdown spot. They were actually still talking about the loss to Big Blue on Tuesday so that tells me they aren’t focused on a dangerous Purdue team. The home team is 8-1 ATS in this series and Michigan State is 9-24 ATS following a straight-up loss.

4-Unit Play. Take #119 Wake Forest (+9) over Clemson (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 10)
Underdogs have been a solid play in the ACC all season and I think that this is a few too any points to give the defending conference champions. Clemson has been beating cream puffs and they are 2-6 ATS at home and against teams with a winning record. The Deacons are 12-2 ATS against teams above .500 and are 11-5 ATS on the road.

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COMPS:


USC at California
By: Computer Sports
Free winner from Computer Sports: USC TROJANS -4.




Michigan at Wisconsin
By: Platinum Plays
Take Michigan -2½ Over the Badgers.





Wake Forest at Clemson
By: Dark Horse Sports
Take Wake Forest plus the points over Clemson.





Connecticut at Cincinnati
By: #1 Sports
Take Connecticut +6 1/2 points to improve your season article mark to 8-3.






Auburn at Georgia
By: Tom Hatfield of Razor Sharp Sports
Free winner from Razor Sharp Sports: Take AUBURN/GEORGIA OVER the total.





MIKE ROSE COMP

Air Force -3.0 (-105)
Virginia +3.5 (-110)
Houston @ Tulsa o77.0 (-110)



LT PROFITS COMPS

U Connecticut @ Cincinnati u48.0 (-110)
Virginia +3.5 (-110)

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Gamebreakers Sports Consultants

College Triple Power Play
Kent St
Midd Tenn St
East Carolina

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AAA~Sports

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Mississippi State +5 -110 | Unit Value: 3 DIME "SEC Dog of the Year"

Note: Mississippi State started off this season getting crushed by LSU but the Tigers have become their friends lately as once again, the Bullies will play a team fresh off a game with the best team in the SEC. They are the most physical team as well and I am sure you remember what Miss State did to Kentucky 2 weeks ago. The home team in this game has other advantages as well and that does include a week off to prepare. Bye weeks are very important at this time of the year and especially in the very physical SEC. It does allow for bodies to get well and that is so very important. Many times, listed injuries are not the only one's a team has and the fact is, every player has something nagging them at this time of the year. That is the advantage that the Bulldogs have this week in this game in Starkville and that is not the only thing. It is well publicised that Head Coach Sylvester Crooms was passed up for the Alabama job in favr of Mike Shula, and he and his football team have not forgotten that. Last year as a a 14 point dog, the Bulldogs travelled to Tuscaloosa and manhandled this team, coming away with an easy win. The motivation will continue Saturday. Of course it takes more than that to win games in this tough conference, and Miss State has the ability to do that with an offense that has come alive. QB Wesley Carrol is playing way beyond his years. The Dogs are a much improved team right now because of that and they have very good recievers and running backs. Alabama does have suspended players for this game but that is just not as important as the situation we have at hand with Miss State practices being very good all week including one on Saturday. These comments for Crooms came in the Starkville Daily News, At this point of the season, its the first time since weve been here that were playing for something. For bowl eligibility and a chance to really have an outstanding season if we can close it out strong. Playing them here, you couldnt ask for a better situation. Asked about the Alabama offenses ability to remain one of the leagues more productive units despite recent player suspensions, Croom had ZERO sympathy. Weve been without our quarterbacks all year long and nobody has rolled out any crying towels for us and Im sure not going to roll out any for them. The Bulldogs will be ready Saturday in very many ways. This betting line is 5.5 at many books but is good at any line. I will be throwing some cash on the moneyline.

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T.Covers 20* NCAA Pac-10 GOM (+12.40 NFL/NCAA) 11/9/07 Daily Selection

11/10/07 CFB 20* Big Ticket: USC -4 (193)

ANALYSIS:
Quite simply, Cal is a shell of the team that we thought they were a month ago, when they went up to Oregon and beat the Ducks at Autzen Stadium. The banged up Bears have lost four straight ATS and three of the four in straight up fashion. Each of the four ATS losses came by more than a touchdown against the pointspread – Cal has collectively played 49.5 points worse than the betting marketplace’s expectations. The mediocre Bears are still wildly overvalued in this pointspread range against an elite level team, making this play worthy of Big Ticket status.
Better Cal teams than this one have been unable to hang with USC in recent years. Last year, Cal lost 23-9 to the Trojans; in ’05 they lost at home 35-10. There’s little reason to believe that the Bears offense will have any more success this time around. Bears QB Nate Longshore has been hobbled by an ankle injury, barely able to walk off the field on his own power last week. Longshore’s accuracy has been negatively affected by his injury, throwing six interceptions in his last three games after tossing only two during Cal’s 5-0 start to the season.
The Bears receiving corps is just as banged up. Lavelle Hawkins has averaged only eight yards per reception over the last three games. DeSean Jackson has seen his Heisman candidacy fizzle, held under ten yards per reception in half of the Bears last eight games. Robert Jordan, too, has seen his stats suffer markedly in recent weeks, unable to regain his explosiveness since missing the UCLA game due to injury. It’s worth noting that all three playmaking receivers are little guys, less than 180 pounds, exactly the type of players who tend to wear down over the course of a long season. Cal managed only 20 points against a bad Washington State defense last week. They might struggle to score half that here. The Bears quotes are very telling this week, giving us a true picture of their fragile psyche at this stage of the season. Linebacker Zack Follett: “There’s nothing we can do except keep playing.” Head coach Jeff Tedford: “It’s been a hard three weeks.” Contrast that with the quotes we’re getting out of Pete Carroll following a dominant defensive performance in their 24-3 win over Oregon State last week: “It just was an overwhelming night for our defense. That doesn’t surprise me. We’ve been playing great ‘D’ all year.” USC is 21-0 in November games under Pete Carroll, a team that saves their best football for the stretch run every single season. And it’s surely worth noting that every November win since 2002 has come by more than a touchdown – they haven’t exactly been squeaking past their foes at this time of the year. We’ve seen them play dominant football on the road, winning big at Nebraska and Notre Dame. Right now Cal isn’t a heck of a lot better than either one of those two football teams, physically or mentally. Big Ticket: (#193) Take USC

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20* NCAA Game of the Year Superplay Report 11/9/07 Daily Selection

11/10/07 CFB 20* Superplay: Mississippi State +4.5 (

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Game: Arizona State at U C L A (Saturday 11/10 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on U C L A +7

Arizona State, as have many college football teams this year, saw the magic come to an end last week as they were handed their first defeat at Oregon. This is yet another team that has not shown any success on the road. Yes, they beat a weak Stanford team 41-3. But, they barely beat Pac-10 cellar dweller Washington State 23-20 on the road in a game they were outgained by 150 yards. So, in two of the three games they played on the road they have been significanly outplayed. Now they face the Bruins who are complete no-shows for the easy games, but show up big for the bigger games. They beat a very good BYU team soundly, handed Oregon State a thrashing on the road (OSU's only home loss) and pounded a good California team. But, the Bruines got crushed by an average Utah team and were hammered at Washington State. The message is clear: bring in a big team, and the Bruins come up big. Pu Arizona State on the road, and they are ordinary. Getting a bundle of points with the Bruins is a very sound, value laden investment. This is also a big letdown spot for ASU after losing for the first time, with USC on the horizon as well. UCLA has lost just twice in conference, and if they pin another loss on ASU, they are within striking distance of Oregon. UCLA is 13-5 ATS as an underdog under Karl Dorrell and 13-4 ATS at home over the past three seasons. We like the Bruins a s a live dog in this one.

Game: Memphis at Southern Miss (Saturday 11/10 4:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Memphis +16.5

We see a large overlay in this one. Southern Miss has dominated this series going 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS the past 15 years. But, the average spread in those games was Southern Miss by 5.5 points. Even in games played at home Southern Miss wasn't asked to lay anything near 16.5 points. The average home line was half of this number. It is difficult to ask a team that scores 26.9 ppg to cover a huge spread, especially when they are out-scoring their opponents by just 3 ppg on the season. Memphis is a team that can score. Their offense ranks #45 amongst all teams and at 27 ppg, should be able to put enough points up to cover this lofty spread. Southern Miss has had trouble with large spreads at home, because they have never been an offensive team, having covered a double-digit line just once in four years (total record: 1-6 ATS). Memphis has been just the opposite, as they have failed to cover as a double-digit dog on the road just once since November of 2001, and stand at 6-1 ATS in this role. With Tommy West as head coach, Memphis is 9-2 ATS on the road vs. winning teams. Southern Miss has just nine TD passes from their quarterbacks to 10 intercepts while Memphis stands at 21 TDs to 9 INTs. Memphis is going to be able to score enough to stay within the number here.

Game: Florida at S. Carolina (Saturday 11/10 7:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on S. Carolina +7.5

It's hard to believe these two teams are a combined 7-7 in the conference, but such is life in the rugged SEC. This is an interesting match-up of opposites. South Carolina is the #1 stop unit vs. the pass, but has trouble stopping the run. Florida is strongagainst the run, ranked 18th, but 80th vs. the pass, which is what SC does best. It appears to be a challenging game for the defenses. This is a much different team than we saw last season with Florida. The Gators played 14 games last season, and just three times did they allow an opponent to reach 20 points. This year's team has allowed 20 or more in each of the last eight! S. Carolina, after opening 6-1, has fallen on hard times dropping their last three. But, two of those losses were on the road. This is a game that SC will have no trouble getting up for. With former Gator coach Steve Spurrier at the helm, SC has always seemed to be ready to face Florida. Last year they had a 16-10 lead late on the road, and almost pulled off the shocker before falling by 1 point. Two years ago they soundly beat the Gators at home. Florida lost 10 of their top 12 tacklers from a year ago and it shows. If there's one thing at which Spurrier excels, it is putting together a pass oriented offensive attack. This is a perfect matchup to exploit the Gators' weaknesses. This is a bigger game for SC than it is for Florida, and playing at home, versus his old school, you can bet his Gamecocks will be fully energized. The home crowd will be lathered up as well. In a game that should go the wire, we like the lofty spread. Throw in the fact that the gators are a horrible 1-8 ATS as a road favorite under Urban Meyer, and we have a play on the Gamecocks.

Game: Kansas at Oklahoma State (Saturday 11/10 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Oklahoma State +6

Last week we saw a Kansas team in waiting, in a circled game against Nebraska, a team that had completely humiliated them on many occasions. The Jayhawks certainly got themselves up for the game, and put one on Nebraska. It was a big "take that" beat down based on years of pent up frustration. It has been 100 years since Kansas has opened a season 9-0. The nation has finally noticed. Their perfect record thus far is in part because of their very good play, but also comes thanks to a cupcake schedule. Kansas played no one out-of-conference. Games vs. Central Michigan, SE Louisiana, Toledo, and Florida International filled the stat sheets and the win column, but did little to prepare them for the road ahead. They have also met Baylor and Nebraska at home. The 6-0 home record shows Kansas out-scoring these teams 348-72. But these teams Kansas has beaten at home are a combined 5-24 SU with wins vs. such powers as Kent State, Western Michigan, Ball State and Buffalo. These six teams that combine for a 5-24 road record are being out-scored on the road by 1225-531!! If you look at Kansas on the road, they have been held in check all season. Wins have come by 5, 6 and 8 points to mediocre teams as the Jayhawks put up just 22.7 ppg (vs. 58.0 in home games). They are off their most emotional win of the season, and have Missouri waiting in the wings. Meanwhile Oklahoma State hasn't dropped a game to Kansas at home since 1995. We will ride the points, and what could be an Oklahoma State straight-up win.

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Big Al McMordie ACC GOY

Va Tech

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NOVEMBER 10-11 WEEKEND PICKS



Missouri -19 Over Texas A&M (Favorite Game)
North Carolina State -3.5 Over North Carolina (Favorite Game)
Mississippi State +4.5 Over Alabama
Cincinnati -6.% Over Connecticut
South Carolina +7 Over Florida
Auburn +2 Over Georgia
Kentucky -3.5 Over Vanderbilt
Ohio State -15 Over Illinois
Oregon State -5 Over Washington
Southern Mississippi -16.5 Over Memphis
Arkansas +1 Over Tennessee

Dolphins +3 Over Bills
Giants +1.5 Over Cowboys
Chargers +3.5 Over Colts

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Nationwide (goldst):

Super 7: Iowa,
Top: Bc, Reg: Wf, Rice, Oh St, Stan Under

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