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Sport Favorite Underdog Pick

(Mon-Night) Ravens

cto

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10 BALTIMORE over *Pittsburgh

Late Score Forecast:

BALTIMORE 23 - *Pittsburgh 19

Marc Lawrence



BALT +9 (upset special)

Pointwise Phone Plays



2* Monday Night Pittsburgh

Brandon Lang
MONDAY

25 DIME

STEELERS

Free Pick - Ravens/Steelers OVER - (For analysis see Daily video)

Dave Malinksy

2 selections

5* BALTIMORE over PITTSBURGH
5* BALTIMORE/PITTSBURGH Over the total

It is rare that we put two plays together in the same game, but when extreme value presents itself we do not hesitate to do it. The key here is that making both plays is a key part of the equation. So we use this part of the page to tell the tale.

This line is wrong, very wrong, based on tonight?s lineups. Had these two teams met here on week #1 we would have projected the Steelers at -3, and in truth not all that much has happened to increase the spread by nearly a full touchdown. A win tonight and these two are tied atop the AFC North standings, after all. And as for historical perspective, the Ravens have lost one game by more than 10 points the past two seasons. In their last four meetings vs. the Steelers they are 3-1, with the only loss coming by a single point, and in the last five seasons they are 5-0 SU and ATS off of their bye week, with four of the wins coming in double figures.

So where does the line come from? Partially from the Steelers being over-rated. They have built their 5-2 record by facing one of the league?s weakest schedules, with only Cleveland currently sporting a winning record. But the Browns that they faced were the Charlie Frye edition, not the current Derek Anderson model. There has also been some downgrading of the Ravens, who have stumbled and wheezed to their 4-3 record, but there needs to be an * next to many of those games, which also provides a key starting point in terms of going forward tonight.

The Baltimore offense has struggled, which is what is going to happen to any attack that is playing without their starting QB, top receiver, and both starting OT?s. That has been the case for much of the current campaign, but Steve McNair, Todd Heap, Jonathan Ogden and Adam Terry are all back in the starting lineup for the first time since the opening week of the season. That means a chance to get back to playing their brand of football again, and causing the same problems that they caused the Steelers LY ? in rolling up 58 points in the 2-0 sweep McNair was 39-55 for 470 yards and four touchdowns, with 11 of those passes caught by Heap. They did an outstanding job of negating the Steeler blitz packages, and if anything they match up even better this time ? Willis McGahee is a much better runner on the corners than Jamal Lewis was, and with the Steelers missing DE Aaron Smith getting to the edge becomes even easier.

So let?s get back to that pointspread, and show how this sequence can best be worked. At +9.5 and 35.5 (the latter starting to show this morning), the oddsmakers are projecting a 22.5 ? 13 final score. That means our bottom line is if the Ravens can reach 13 points, we are guaranteed to win either the Side or the Total; there is no way to lose anything more than vigorish. That becomes an easy projection to make for an offense that is now healthy - Baltimore has been held to less than 13 points just one time the past two seasons, and never in that span with McNair at QB.

Should this game play Under the total, it is obviously difficult to lose the Raven side; for every point Under that it goes the +9.5 becomes bigger and bigger. Yet not only can we take advantage of the improper line by playing both ends of this game, we also build in a layer of protection ? if there is a genuine weakness for Baltimore tonight it is the absence of starting CB?s Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle. That can open the door for Ben Roethlisberger to make plays as he regains his chemistry with Hines War and Santonio Holmes.

The bottom line is that we will call for an aggressive Baltimore team to be in the hunt right to the final snap in this one, and for a reinvigorated offense to easily put more than enough on the board for us to cash both tickets. Here is the key from a * Rating standpoint. At +9.5 and 35.5 the Raven magic number is 13, in which case we play a 5* each way. If you can only find a +9 or a 36 the magic number goes to 14, and in that case we make it a 4* each way.

King Totals

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Ravens/Steelers over 36

COMPS:




HUDDLE UP

COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Memphis -36





Dave Cokin

501 Rockets @ 502 Mavericks 8:35PM ET

Play: Rockets +5






Scott Rickenbach

Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Pittsburgh @ 8:30 ET







MIKE WYNN

Houston/Dallas Under 190






PLATINUM PLAYS

NHL: the BUFFALO SABRES + 130 Over the Montreal Canadiens






TV HOTLINE

RICHMOND





Jennifer Barry
Monday, November 5 2007

Sport: NBA
Matchup: Houston at Dallas

Prediction: Houston Rockets +5








BIG TIME SPORTS

MONDAY NOVEMBER 5th
FLYERS / RANGERS OVER 5.5







florida booky busters

NBA 11/5/2007 at 8:30:00 PM
Houston at Dallas

Houston/Dallas o190








ARTHUR RALPH

COLORADO (NHL)






#1 SPORTS

CALGARY FLAMES + 140






GINA

Monday, November 5th 8:30 p.m. est.

Baltimore Ravens (4-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
Heinz Field- Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Series: Pittsburgh 14-9 - (1-0 in playoffs)

Pittsburgh has won five of their last seven games, going 5-2 ATS, while Baltimore is 4-3 straight-up and a nasty 1-6 ATS.



Baltimore won both meetings last year against the Steelers and has covered the spread in the last four meetings. However, the Ravens have struggle this season with an ineffective offense and is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road. Take Pittsburgh. The Steelers at home on a Monday night will be a tough assignment. They have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 contests on Monday night in Pittsburgh. The Ravens gloomy offense will have problems scoring tonight in Heinz Field.

Pittsburgh Steelers -9









NEVADA SHARPSHOOTER

DALLAS -5 OVER HOUSTON NBA






HAWKEYE

RICHMOND -6? OVER MAINE












SCOUT

Houston/Dallas over 190









Frank Patron
Date: Monday November 5, 2007

Sport: NBA
Game: Houston at Dallas

Prediction: Dallas Mavs -5









Paul Leiner
Monday, November 5, 2007

Sport: NBA
Game: Dallas/Houston
Prediction: 10* Over 190 Hou/Dal










Karl Garrett

The Rockets are off to a nice 3-0 straight up start under new coach Rick Adelman, but their stop in the Metroplex tonight will result in their first loss of the year says the G-Man.
Dallas just covered a 15-point impost at home against Sacramento, and the Mavs have certainly had their in-state rivals number of late. Dallas has won and covered the last 3 series meetings. They have covered in 6 of the last 7 overall meetings, and I don't see anything changing here.
Houston has been playing some inspired ball to start the campaign, but Dallas has been one of the teams in the west the Rockets just haven't been able to solve, and I don't see them solving their matchup problems tonight against the Mavs.
In the only game on the NBA dance card tonight, the G-Man says to lay the home wood with the Mavericks.

2♦ DALLAS









Chuck Franklin

Houston has won the first three games this season playing their typically strong defensive game. They are allowing an average of only 89 points per game in those wins. Dallas is coming off a win in which they shot over 65% and scored 123 points. I say Dallas will hit the century mark tonight and that will be enough to easily cover the number. The Mavericks beat the Rockets three of four times last season, including both games at home. Dallas has won four in a row and 11 of the last 14 at home.
The Rockets may be off to a good start, but lately they have had trouble competing within the Western Conference. They have only covered the spread in seven of the last 29 games played against a Western Conference opponent. Also note that Houston is only 2-9 ATS the last 11 games after a win and 1-7 ATS the last eight road games. The Mavericks are a solid winner when facing an opponent from the NBA Southwest Division. They are on a 37-16-1 ATS run in that situation.

3♦ DALLAS










Drew Gordon

In what will be a better match up once the Rockets get fully-acclimated to coach Adelman's more up-tempo style, this early in the season, Houston is still vulnerable in this spot.
The Dallas offense has picked up right where they left off. After a disappointing loss to the Hawks, they bounced right back with a monster win and cover against the Kings at home. The fact that Josh Howard is back (27 points in his return from suspension) only makes it that much harder for the Rockets to match up in this contest.
Speaking of match ups, the Mavericks have the size and depth to deal with the Rockets two-man show. Its been the problem year after year in Houston, after Yao and T-Mac, who steps up? You know damn well Dallas will be keying on those two players, and I just don't see where else they get their production from consistently.
Finally, you might not have heard his name, but PG Jose Juan Barea is showing why the Mavs are so dangerous. You'd think with Devin Harris out, the Mavs offense would slow a bit, but no, Barea scores a team-high 25 points, including 4 for 4 from 3-point!
Bottom line, at some point Houston is going to have to open up the offense to compete with other up-tempo Western Conference teams, but they're just not there yet. Dallas takes advantage of their tremendous depth and an excellent home court edge to get the win and cover Monday night.
Take Dallas comfortably over Houston in this NBA match up.

2♦ DALLAS







LSO (3-1-0 / +190)
NBA - Dallas Over (190)









Nostradamus (3-1-0 / +195)
NHL - Florida (-140)








JIM FEIST

The Ny Rangers quite possibly the best defensive team thus far in the young NHL season. Even though the club is 6-7 on the year, they have allowed just 1.77 goals per game. In fact, of those 13 games plays, 11 have gone under. Additionally, three teams have been able to split the pipes against goaltender Henrik Lundqvist this season. The Philadelphia Flyers have been one of the surprise teams this season starting out 8-4 after a horrendous 2006 season. The biggest difference has been the addition of goalie Martin Biron. Biron already has two shutouts on the young season and is eight in the league with a 2.11 goals against average. With two of the top 10 goalies in the league facing off, we look for a hard fought, defensive battle here tonight and the game to go UNDER the total.






SUNSHINE FORECAST

Monday, November 5, 2007

Baltimore Ravens (+9?) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Power Rating Projection:

Pittsburgh Steelers 25 Baltimore Ravens 17
Statistical Projections

Baltimore Ravens 16

Rushing Yards: 93
Passing Yards: 217
Turnovers: 2 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Rushing Yards: 116
Passing Yards: 234
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Baltimore Ravens
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Baltimore Ravens 16






JEFF BENTON

Monday we?ll take the Mavericks at home against Houston in the only game on the hardwood tonight.
I know the Rockets are off to a 3-0 start, but only one of those was a quality win (at Utah on Thursday night). In the other two contests, Houston nearly blew a 12-point lead with 90 seconds to play against the Lakers, escaping with a 95-93 win as a 5?-point favorite. Then in their home opener on Saturday, the Rockets struggled to put away the crappy Blazers, winning 89-80 as an 11 ?-point favorite, shooting just 39.6 percent from the field while allowing Portland to connect on 40.8 percent of its shots.
Now, without question, Houston is facing its toughest foe to date in the Mavericks. Although Dallas is just 2-1, its two wins were very impressive ? 28-point rout at Cleveland and a 21-point pummeling of the Kings at home on Saturday. The Mavs got Josh Howard back from suspension against Sacramento, and all he did was score a team-high 27 points to go with seven rebounds and five assists.
Howard torched the Rockets in Dallas? three wins last year against Houston. In fact, the Mavs have owned the Rockets going back to a 2005 playoff series, going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes, including 5-0 at home (4-1 ATS). In those five home wins, Dallas has posted victories of 22, 13, 17, 9 and 40 points.
So while Houston may be improving, it?s not ready to compete on the Mavericks? level just yet. So to only have to lay 5 or so in this spot is a steal.
(based on a 1 to a 10 ♦ Rating)

2♦ DALLAS MAVERICKS






Matt Rivers comp
For Monday take the number back with the Rockets.






Trace Adams

MONDAY'S COMP PLAY - Houston Rockets.






Jake Timlin

Your complimentary Monday selection is the Dallas Mavericks.

LT Profits NBA
Houston/Dallas under 2*



LT Profits NFL
under 2*