Sunday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports

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Brandon Lang

SUNDAY

50 DIME

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

25 DIME

CHARGERS - only lay 7. if your man has 7 1/2 u buy the half and only lay 7. never and I mean never get beat by the hook. Only lay -7.

BROWNS

15 DIME

Indy
Jaguars
Cardinals

10 DIME

Eagles
Lions

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ATS Lock Club

7 units on the New England Patriots (-5) over the Indianapolis Colts, 4:00
7 units on the Dallas Cowboys (-3) over the Philadelphia Eagles, 8:00
5 units on the Washington Redskins (-3 1/2) over the NY Jets, 1:00
4 units on the Detroit Lions (-3) over the Denver Broncos, 1:00

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Scott Spreitzer-Smashmouth Sports

5 * Arizona Cardinals
4* Carolina Panthers
TKO New Orlean Saints-Heavy Hitter Game of the Month
TKO Houston Texans
KO Philadelphia Eagles
KO Indianapolis Colts
Total 5* Houstan Texans/Oakland Raiders under 41.5
Insider Seattle Seahawks

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Big Al's plays

At 4:15 pm, our AFC Game of the Month is on the Indianapolis Colts plus the points over New England. This game has had so much hype that I will steer clear of the obvious, but suffice it to say, the New England Patriots have made a run for the record books. Not just in the margin of victory column, but in the ATS Winning streak as well. Indeed, over the past 28 seasons, there had been eight teams prior to New England that had started the season with six ATS wins. And ALL EIGHT OF THESE TEAMS not only failed to cover the spread in Week 7, but all eight lost the game straight up (and all eight were favored to win by anywhere from 3 to 9.5 points). But New England bucked history and covered vs. Miami in Week 7, and then covered in Week 8 vs. Washington. Although the Patriots are the best team I've ever seen in a season's 1st half, the pointspread has definitely caught up with them. Consider that, if this game were being played in New England, then the Patriots would be favored by around 12 points. But they were only favored by 15.5 points last week vs. Washington, and Washington is about a touchdown worse than Indy. So, just after last week, the oddsmakers have adjusted New England's power rating by about 3 points. Last year, Indy was favored by 3.5 points at home vs. New England, which is 9 points away from the current number! And all Indy has done is win 12 straight games dating back to last season, and going 9-3 ATS, with six of those 12 games against playoff-caliber competition. In contrast, New England has only played two games this year vs. playoff-caliber opponents: San Diego and Dallas. And the Colts are much better than either of those two teams. The increased level of talent of its opponent, combined with an adjusted pointspread, will be too much for New England to overcome this week. For technical support, we note that unrested .888 (or better) teams off six straight wins and 3 straight ATS wins are 1-25 ATS since 1980 as favorites of -12 points or less vs. .333 (or better) foes. Of course the only time this 25-1 ATS system failed to get the $$$$ was last week when Indy covered its fourth straight game as a 7-point favorite over Carolina. But I look for this time-proven angle to get back on the winning track this Sunday, and move to 26-1 ATS since 1980. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NFL Division Game of the Month Winner, or my Monday Night Game of the Year.


At 8:15 pm, our NFC East Game of the Month is on the Philadelphia Eagles plus the points over Dallas. Both of these divisional rivals come into tonight's contest off wins over the Vikings: Dallas defeated Minnesota two weeks ago (and then had last week off), while Philly upset the Vikes 17-10 as a 1-point underdog last week. That victory by Philly is key here, as over the last 28 years, one of the best bets in the NFL is to play on divisional home dogs of less than seven points, with a losing record, off an outright win as a dog, if they're matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS win. These teams have cashed a super 71.4% of the time. Philly is 13-6-1 its last 20 games vs. Dallas, including a perfect 9-0 off a win of seven or more points. Donavan McNabb is 6-1 SU as a starter vs. the Cowboys, while Dallas QB Tony Romo struggled in his only start vs. Philly (14 of 29 with one TD and 2 Interceptions). Romo is also in poor form, as he's committed 8 turnovers in his last three games. The Eagles played terrific defense last week vs. Viking RB Adrian Peterson, holding him to just 70 yards, and the Eagles' stop unit will be buoyed by the return of Brian Dawkins this week. With tough road games still to come against New England, New Orleans, Washington and these Cowboys, this home game is close to a 'must-win' game for Philly. They'll get it. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NBA Winner today.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Phoenix played perhaps its worst game ever in the Mike D'Antoni era two nights back, when it got blasted 119-98 to the Lakers (and Kobe Bryant didn't even have a good game). Rest assured that the Suns won't have two awful games in a row in front of their home fans, especially after being booed off the court on Friday. Professional athletes have a lot of pride, and embarassment is often a big motivating factor. Indeed, since 1993, .500 or better NBA home teams are a solid 14-0 ATS off a home game in which they failed to cover by 25 or more points, provided they're matched up against a foe off exactly one win. Take Phoenix. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

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The Miller Group

GAME: New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts Nov 4, 2007 4:15PM
SPORT: National Football League Picks
PICK: Indianapolis Colts
Offered at: 6.5 BoDog
REASON FOR PICK:
Sure, the Patriots have looked invincible through the first eight weeks of the season, going undefeated, and winning by an average margin of 25.5 points per game.


However, this is a team that laid just six points at the New York Jets in Week 1, seven points at Cincinnati in Week 4, and five points at Dallas in Week 6. We simply can't make a case for them to be favored by six-and-a-half on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs, who just so happen to be undefeated as well. Indianapolis has a legitimate shot to not only cover this number, but win the game outright. We'll gladly take the generous helping of points.


There really isn't a list of negative points we can bring up about the Patriots. There's no question they've played nearly flawless football through eight weeks. We will point to the Dallas game as a point of reference as to why the Colts can win this game.


Remember, the Patriots actually trailed the Cowboys 24-21 midway through the third quarter in that contest. Poor execution on both sides of the ball would eventually kill the Cowboys as they lost the game 48-27.


We don't expect a lack of execution to be an issue for the Colts. The Colts defensive numbers are almost a mirror image to those of the Patriots, while their offense has been every bit as consistent, but not quite as potent. You can make the case that Indianapolis has put up those numbers against stiffer competition. Their opponents own a combined 27-24 record, while the Patriots opponents have posted a collective 23-34 mark.


Colts WR Marvin Harrison is expected to be in street clothes for this one, but we don't see that as a huge issue. Peyton Manning has done an excellent job of spreading the ball around, and Reggie Wayne has become his go-to-guy this season. Harrison is certainly a big part of this offense, but his absence isn't going to disrupt the Colts offensive gameplan.


The Patriots aren't the only team that has improved significantly since last season. The Colts are playing with a lot more confidence, and most importantly are playing loose. Winning the Super Bowl has taken the massive weight off of their shoulders and allowed them to play their game. Unlike other teams, they're not going to be intimidated by the mighty Patriots. Having the advantage of facing them at home doesn't hurt either.


We've been surprised by the amount of public love the Patriots have received in this one. It's important to note that this line opened at -3, and has since been bet up by as many as three-and-a-half points at some books. It's simply too significant of a move in a game that we feel could go either way. The Patriots dream season may continue, but it's not going to be a cakewalk. Take Indianapolis.

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O.C. Dooley

"2 UNIT" UPSET SHOCKER

(49ers +3' at Falcons in a 1:05 eastern kickoff):

The bottom line regarding this release is that I have found out that due to waning fan support, the 49ers are going to play this game with a sense of URGENCY not normally found when facing a struggling opponent with just one win. It seems like an eternity since San Francisco's season opening 2-0 winning streak as it appeared this franchise was finally starting to turn the corner. One of the reasons why there was so much enthusiasm at the start of this campaign is due to the fact that the normally spendthrift 49ers shelled out nearly $40-million of guaranteed cash in the offseason to upgrade the DEFENSE. I just have a feeling that defense is going to look tremendous this afternoon against an injury-ravaged Atlanta offensive line that has already gone through 3 different players at the left tackle position alone. Other than last week against a New Orleans attack that was rated #1 a year ago, there has been hope for that San Francisco defense and note that rookie linebacker Patrick Willis currently leads the entire NFL with an average of 10.4 tackles per game. I am fully aware that the San Francisco offense statistically is at the very bottom of the league right now averaging an awful 220 total yards per game, but they are slowly getting HEALTHY. Last week QB Alex Smith returned from injury and obviously was rusty, but I have found out that the former #1 draft choice has earned plenty of RESPECT from his teammates for playing through the pain of a separated shoulder. It was two weeks ago when San Francisco's main offensive threat (TE Vernon Davis) also returned from an injury absence and I feel both he and his quarterback are now undervalued. Last year Frank Gore rushed for nearly 1,700 yards but this campaign has yet to reach the 100 yard barrier in any contest, so he is undervalued as well even though currently battling an ankle problem. Of course things in Atlanta made a dramatic turn for the worse when star QB Michael Vick got into trouble with the law. In the past few years one thing Vick did with his mobility was have the Falcons constantly lead the NFL in rushing, but those running statistics in 2007 have made a complete about-face. Not only did the Falcons lose the face of their franchise, they also changed to head coach Bobby Petrino whose disciplinary style has rubbed many veterans on this squad the wrong way, including star CB D'Angelo Hall who already got into an altercation with his coach on the sidelines. Hall was also vocal during the BYE week when the Falcons sent a message and cut their best defensive lineman Grady Jackson who constantly defied the coaching staff and refused to follow the called plays on the field. Basically Petrino's timing taking on this NFL job was poor as he is trying to install a completely new style of play as opposed to what Jim Mora Jr. ran successfully for so many years this decade. One of the many things Petrino has changed is the "zone blocking" style that used to work wonders for the rushing attack. With the aforementioned injuries across the offensive line, both the Falcons rushing and passing attacks have suffered as the quarterback's have been "sitting ducks" in the pocket. Today they will be facing an improved 49er defense and will have there collective hands full. Since they no longer play in the same division, it is rare that these 2 teams face each other as today marks San Francisco's first visit to the Georgia Dome since way back in the 2001 playoffs. In 2004 Atlanta went out to San Francisco on opening day and won a tight contest decided by TWO POINTS. The 49ers are backed by a fabulous "30-8 System" that in the past decade has covered at near an 80-PERCENT clip! This incredible system sides with ROAD teams like San Francisco coming off a game where they allowed 30+ points on the scoreboard, facing an opponent who has scored 17-or-LESS points in 3 consecutive outings. For those of you who have already given up on the 49ers, that may be a poor decision. Last year San Francisco started 2-5 out of the gate and promptly went on a 3-game WINNING streak to reach the .500 mark! In a case of deja-vu, the 49ers again are off to a poor 2-5 start, but if they follow last year's pattern they are going to win this contest OUTRIGHT. That is why I am personally dabbling on the money-line (+165) as well.

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Larry Ness

Game: Panthers at Titans
Pick: Panthers

Reason: The Titans have been a great underdog these last two years but have fared poorly as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Panthers have been the league's best road dog, going 19-7-1 ATS in that role since 2002. No reason to buck that trend here, regardless of the QB situation for Carolina (Vinny or Carr). Tennessee is having its fair share of QB problems as well, as Vince Young returned last week but completed just 6-of-14 for 42 yards, in a 13-9 win over Oakland (another failure as a favorite for the Titans). Young was highly praised for his play last year but the fact remains that he completed just 51.5% of his throws in '06 with a 12-13 ratio and a QB rating of 66.7. His completion percentage is way up this year (64.0) but his ratio is poor once again (3-6) and his QB rating is only 68.0. The Titans opened the '07 season by rushing for 282 yards vs the Jaguars but since then the running game has averaged a much more modest, 129.0 YPG (which would rank them about 10th in the league). I'm taking the points with the Panthers.

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THE LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS


Play: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7 (BUY ONE POINT)
Comments: THE LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7 (BUY ONE POINT) Get in now as the books are beginning to move the line down. The major books still have it at 6. Although we feel strong about the Colts covering the 6, we'd like to see our clients invest the extra .20 cents to the dollar and insure themselves against a push. This is where the rubber meets the road. We'll find out if the Pats are for real or have played a soft schedule or if the Colts are as good as advertised. From a betting perspective, we have to side with the Colts here. Getting a plus 6 line with any team, even the worst the NFL has to offer is a bit too much. Sharpening the angle buying the point makes it a big lean to the bettor to get 7 points in any NFL game never mind getting last years Super bowl champion at this price. Brady has been racking up great stats, but how could you not when Randy moss is being double covered and you basically have a receiver either uncovered or in man to man on every play? Has anyone even noticed that the Colts lead the league in pass defense? So if anyone can stop the Pats passing game, you're looking at it today. Teams have been basically intimidated and playing scared against the Pats forcing them to get desperate and attempt big plays which forces mistakes. The Colts are a patient team and will take what you give them be it short passes, down the middle, or long yardage. That patience is what's needed to win today. As far as the rosters and person to person, the Colts can equal the Patriots for talent. With Marvin Harrison in today that takes the attention off of Dallas Clark who has been the x-factor for the Colts. Once you think you have it worked out, Clark is wide open and with his sure hands it's frustrating defenses. Patriot's offense is undoubtedly top notch, but that defense has not been tested and it will get a full exam today. Indianapolis has won the last three meetings between these two teams, including last year's AFC championship. the difference this year is the Colts have a defense. Colts are at home where they always play better as any dome team should. It should be a closer than expected game and although we truly believe the Colts win it SU, we can't over look the amount of points Vegas is giving away here and by grabbing the extra point then this game is insured as far as we can take it. It's value to have this line with any team in the NFL. Grab the generous points and lets enjoy a great game today.

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feist--
inner circle.............sf under 37, det
platinum goy................philly
platinum......................colts
personal best.................bills, wash
total...........................ne over 56.5, car under 35.5
island source......................sd
personal elite...................clev over 46.5, nuggets
teasers............car,sd,philly
............car,det

spritzer--
5 star hammer...............ariz
4 star hammer...............carolna
tko heavy hitter gom..........new orlns
tko.................hous
ko...................philly, colts
total..................5 star oak under41.5
insider........................seatt
direct line release..................sd

cokin--
fat man releases................kc-2.5, sd-7
under the hat...................dallas
window..........................wash
total..............................sf under 37
big shot...........................hous
super total........................clev over 46.5

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DOC SPORTS

4 Unit Play. #112 Take Kansas City -2 over Green Bay (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) The Packers are set to invade AFC West territory for the second straight week and will be coming off a short week after their magical victory on Monday night. The Packers have always suffered a letdown when entering a short week with just two pointspread victories in their last seven games following a MNF game. Arrowhead Stadium has always been a tough place to play, especially for NFC teams and the Chiefs have the defense to match-up with the Packers. QB Favre suffers a letdown and tries to do too much when the running game fails early. KC wins this low scoring game. Kansas City 20, Green Bay 16.



3 Unit Play. #113 Take San Diego -7 over Minnesota (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) I was all set to use the Chargers as a selection last week, but because of the wildfires no line was posted until Friday, which is after the time that we release selections for the weekend. They cruised to a victory last week against a better Houston team then they will face this week in Minnesota. The Chargers are finally playing up to their potential and because they play in a bad division, they should have no problem winning the AFC West for the second straight year. Minnesota has no offense to speak of and Brad Childress in on the hot seat. They have a solid back in Peterson but do not have a quarterback in Jackson. Things have gotten so bad that QB Bollinger may see action and he has been a flop at every stop in the NFL. San Diego will not beat themselves and win this game by double-digits. San Diego 28, Minnesota 10.



4 Unit Play. #131 Take Baltimore +9 over Pittsburgh (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) Both teams still win games via their defense and this is way too many points to be laying with a run first offense in Pittsburgh. This visitor has owned this series of late going 10-5 in the last 16 meetings (one tie). The Ravens won in Pittsburgh last year, 31-7, and expect a solid effort from them on Monday. Baltimore needs this game more and thus will sneak out a victory in a low scoring game. Baltimore 19, Pittsburgh 17.

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Brian Sherwood



NY JETS +4 and +1.75 over Washington

The Jets really don?t offer much but if you think the Skins offer more you?re incorrect. Washington cannot run, they cannot pass and had they not hosted games against the Dolphins, Cardinals (with a one-armed QB) and Lions they?d very likely be 1-6. This is the worst 4-3 team ever and it?s not close. The Skins offense is ranked 28th in the league and that?s after playing a slew of very average defenses. The defense has performed decently but we?re not convinced that they're good either. A close look reveals that the defense has had one good game thus far. Meanwhile, the Jets stock can?t get any lower and when that occurs so does an inflated line against them. Stubborn Eric Mangini has finally relented and has named Kellen Clemens his starting QB this week, a move that was far, far overdue. The problem with the Jets was their inability to finish off drives and that?s because when every drive is 14 or 15 plays something bad invariably happens. Clemens has a great arm and great instincts and if nothing else, his ability to thrown downfield will loosen up the opposing ?D?, which in turn will help the running game tremendously. He?ll also give the Jets a much-needed boost in the arm. The Jets have played a much tougher schedule, they?ll be playing a weak NFC team and there?s no reason they can?t get off the mattress here. Joe Gibbs still thinks it?s 1983. Play: NY Jets +4 (Risking 1.1 units to win 1) Play: NY Jets +1.75 (Risking 1 unit).



KANSAS CITY ?1? over Green Bay

Can there be a more vulnerable spot on the board then the Packers this week? Green Bay is coming off a huge Monday Night game in which they had no business winning. The Broncos had everything go against them including a fumble on the Packers one-inch line, a phantom offensive holding call on a touchdown and two long bombs that fell from the sky perfectly for two TD?s against them. Denver kept moving the chains at will all night long but it just wasn?t meant to be. Now the 6-1 Packers will take their show on the road again on a short week after the dreaded big Monday night win. Does it get any sweeter? Not really. The Chiefs are coming on and they?re coming on strong, very quietly, we might add. They?ve won four of five and there?s a quiet confidence about them. They spanked the Chargers and they also beat an erratic but dangerous Bengals squad. The Chiefs only loss over that stretch was to a quality Jacksonville team. Oh, one last thing, since the start of the ?90 season, no team boasts a better home record than Kansas City?s 104-35 mark at Arrowhead. Dating back to ?95, the Chiefs also own an NFL-best 21-4 home record against NFC opponents and this one sets up as good as any of them. Play: Kansas City ?2 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).



DETROIT/Denver over 45.5

Personally, I?m not a totals player because I just don?t like them. However, with these two teams playing indoors in perfect conditions we have no idea how they?re going to stay under this total. The Broncos are playing on a short week and their defense is just brutal. When we take a close look at the Broncos we see they played Buffalo, Oakland and Jacksonville the first three weeks of the year and that trio might just be the three worst offensive teams in the league. When the Broncos took a step up in class and faced the Colts, Steelers and Chargers the next three weeks they allowed 38, 41 and 28 points, respectively. Now they?ll once again face one of the most explosive offenses in the league. The Lions need to score about 35 a game to have any chance of winning because they, too, couldn?t stop the marching band. Detroit's fairly decent season thus far and wealth of talent at the skill positions has masked the team's shoddy play on defense but we haven?t forgotten the 34 they gave up to Washington and the 56 they gave up to Philly. So, what we have here is all offense and no defense and it says here this one will likely go over before the end of third quarter. Play: Detroit/Denver over 45? (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).



INDIANAPOLIS +6 +1.00 over New England

If you wager on the Patriots here and you cash your ticket you?ll feel like a bigger genius then Bill Belichick. However, when the Colts are celebrating at the end of this game you?ll say to yourself,? What an idiot I am for betting against the Colts at home?. Sure, New England is blowing out everyone and they look unbeatable but seriously, whom have they played. They blew out the Jets, the Bengals, the Brownies, the Dolphins the Redskins, the Chargers in week 2 when San Diego was way, way out of sorts, the Bills and finally, they beat a very decent NFC team in the Cowboys. However, let?s not forget that Dallas took a third quarter lead before they had a fourth quarter meltdown. So, yeah, New England has answered the bell in every game and then some. Even great teams sometimes allow lesser teams to hang around but the Patriots have shown no mercy whatsoever. They?re destroying everyone in their path and could go down in history as the best ever. However, the Colts are also 7-0 and in a vulnerable spot last week they destroyed the Panthers 31-7 in Carolina in what was supposed to be a tune-up game for this one. In fact, Indy has won by 18 or more points the past four games they played. The Colts have won 13 in a row at the RCA Dome and they also possess the number one ranked pass defense in the league. No team in the NFL has allowed fewer points. We?d still take Peyton Manning over Tom Brady and we?d still take the Colts defense over the Patriots defense. The Patriots have not faced anything close to resembling these Colts and the fact that we get points with this juggernaut of a team in their own crib, no less is simply ludicrous. If this game were in New England the six points would still be very appealing. The Colts are a powerhouse and taking points at home with them is as sweet as it gets. We?re calling the upset but give us six points and we?ll see you at the cahier?s booth about 7:30. Enjoy. Play: Indianapolis +6 +1.00 (Risking 2 units).



CLEVELAND 1 over Seattle

We?re really not sure if the betting public or the books realize just how tough this Brownie team is becoming. This is either a bad line or a sucker bet and we?re leaning to the former. Derek Anderson is fast becoming one of the best QB?s in the league. Anderson is getting very comfortable out there and he has the weapons to compliment him. His 17 TD passes are second in the NFL to that guy in New England. The Browns offensive line is one of the top three, if not the top units in the league and it?s also worth noting that with the exception of a Week one meltdown against a very good Steelers team, Cleveland has played with a ton of energy and focus in its home building this year. The Seahawks have thrived against a bunch of dregs all year long. They?ve played one, maybe two quality opponents all year if you count the Saints. They lost to New Orleans by 11. Against the other quality team they played, the Steelers, they lost 21-0 but that score was flattering to Seattle. The Seahawks win have come against Arizona, Cinci, St. Louis and San Fran and that quartet is a combined 6-22. The Dog Pound will be in a frenzied state this week and after years we finally trust that the Brownies can be relied upon to deliver. This host has a ton of confidence. Play: Cleveland ?1 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

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Michael Cannon

Take the points with the Panthers today when they travel to take on the Titans.
David Carr will probably start for Carolina at quarterback and that's not necessarily a bad thing for Panther fans. He's familiar with the Titans defense after playing them twice a year when he was a member of the Texans.
That plus Carolina coach John Fox is as close to a sure bet as an underdog as anyone in the NFL.
The Panthers are 22-6-1 ATS under Fox as a road dog, including 21-3-1 ATS when taking 8 or fewer points!
The Titans on the other hand are just 1-10 ATS as a favorite off a non-division game when facing an opponent off a SU loss
Vince Young's performance last week was pitiful and I don't see him making the plays here today against a good Carolina defense.
Take the Panthers plus the points.

2♦ CAROLINA




Take the points with the Colts today when they host the Patriots

The NFL's biggest game of the regular season, possibly ever, goes today and the smart money will be on the Colts.
Forget about the defending champions being almost a touchdown underdog at home against a team they've beaten the last three times out.
That's the obvious and a novice handicapper could offer you that as the basis of their pick.
Let's look at the tactical reason why we're siding with the Colts.
Peyton Manning and his ability to completely suck the life out of an opposing defense by keeping them on the field longer than they want to be there.
What you're going to see here today is what Manning turned to late last season when he realized his defense wasn't going to stop anybody. He worked the underneath routes and utilized his running game to eat up the clock, thus keeping the ball away from the other team. He went so far as to ignore the deep pass for fear of scoring too quick!
That's what he's going to do here today at home against the Patriots because he knows the damage they can do offensively. It's what Manning did to them in the AFC Championship game last year.
The Colts were down 21-3 at the half and he orchestrated the finest comeback of his career by keeping the Pats defense on the field and tiring them out.
I know, I know, the Patriots are on a mission and Belichick's angry at everyone for cameragate and blah, blah, blah...
Might the loss suffered by Boston College last night be a portent of things to come for Boston fans?
Ride the Colts as they win outright.

5♦ INDIANAPOLIS

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THE GOLDSHEET
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 4

Washington 20 - NY JETS 13--Things seem to be going from bad to worse for laboring 1-7 N.Y. The defense, 28th in the NFL through Week Seven, is now without MLB anchor Jonathan Vilma (knee), the team's leading tackler LY. The pass rushers have recorded only 8 sacks; the unit only 6 interceptions. Is it going to Kellen Clemens this week in place of finesse-throwing Chad Pennington? The speedy Washington secondary of No. 1 draft picks will be in a bad mood after last week's 52-point humiliation in Foxborough. Jets 1-6-1 vs. the spread.

(03-WASHINGTON -3 16-13...SR: Washington 7-1)

KANSAS CITY 19 - Green Bay 13--They're not scoring many style points these days in K.C. (in fact, they're not scoring many points at all), but Herm Edwards' teams have long been able to get the most out of aggressive defense and low-risk offense. And with impact DE Jared Allen racking up sacks in bunches (8 already!), Edwards has the playmaker necessary to disrupt Brett Favre's timing, especially since the Pack not running the ball with much authority. Chiefs (13-5-1 vs. line as host since '05) usually offer good value at Arrowhead.

(03-Kansas City +2 40-34 (OT)...SR: Kansas City 6-2-1)

Arizona 21 - TAMPA BAY 20--Jeff Garcia had quickly become Jon Gruden's favorite QB because of his quickness in the pocket and care with the football (no ints. until 3 last week). But Arizona's bye came at a good time for Kurt Warner and his ailing left elbow, as the QB lacks similar escapability and ball possession skills. But he has excellent targets, and Ken Whisenhunt's Cards running with determination TY (E. James 605 YR). Arizona 4-0-1 as a dog in 2007 and 20-5-1 "over" last 26 on the road. (04-ARIZONA -3' 12-7...SR: Arizona 8-7)

Carolina 19 - TENNESSEE 13--Not sure if Carolina better off with old Vinny Testaverde (check ankle tendinitis) or unsteady David Carr at QB. But Panthers probably resourceful enough to hang tight vs. low-variance Tennessee, which doesn't offer the same value when favored (2-5 last 7 in role) as it does as underdog (10-0-1 last 11!). John Fox's veteran Panther defense should limit the damage the still-learning Vince Young (only 6 of 14, 42 YP in return to starting lineup last week) can cause, and PK Bironas' FG prowess (10 of 'em last 2 weeks!) alone not enough to push Titans over hump. (03-Tenn. +1' 37-17...SR: EVEN 1-1)

ATLANTA 19 - San Francisco 13--The idea of Byron Leftwich being the starter for Atlanta for the rest of the season lasted less than one game before the oft-injured QB suffered a high ankle sprain. So it's back to Joey Harrington (63.4%, 4 TDs, 4 ints.) for the grumbling Falcs, with rash CB D. Hall blasting management for releasing DT Grady Jackson (allegedly for "football reasons"), making more playing time available for promising rookie Trey Lewis. However, S.F.'s offense (9 ppg last 4) even less trustworthy than Falcs. "Under" might provide a better option (Atlanta 5-2 "under" TY; 16-6-1 last 23).

(04-Atlanta -3 21-19...SR: San Francisco 44-27-1)

Jacksonville 24 - NEW ORLEANS 13--As HC Sean Payton predicted when the Saints were 0-4, his team would fight back. And, indeed, N.O. since has three straight wins, with Drew Brees hitting 8 TDs vs. only 1 int. during win streak. However, Jacksonville is the bigger, meaner and tougher of these two teams, with QB Quinn Gray (7 of 16, 1 TD, no ints.) playing with poise in a tough environment at Tampa Bay in his first NFL start. The New Orleans defense (11 sacks, only 3 ints.) not super intimidating, and Saints only 3 covers last 14 when favored.

(03-JACKSONVILLE -2' 20-19...SR: Jacksonville 2-1)

Denver 24 - DETROIT 23--Detroit (5-2) is half way to Jon Kitna's much-scoffed-at preseason forecast of double-digit wins for the Honolulu Blue! And the pass-happy Lions even out-rushed the "Monsters of the Midway" 119-63 last week, while picking off 4 passes at Chicago. However, Denver's quick pass rushers hasseled Ben Roethlisberger into 4 sacks, two ints., and 1 fumble two weeks ago. Can they do the same vs. Detroit's high-risk aerial game (35 sacks) while ball hawks Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly (former Lion) blanket two of his receivers? Denver 10-1 "over" last 11 prior to Monday nighter vs. G.B.

(03-DENVER -12 20-16...SR: Denver 6-3)

BUFFALO 23 - Cincinnati 17--Whether it's Trent Edwards or J.P. Losman (key 85-yd. TDP last week at the Jets) at the controls, Buffalo has much more going for it in terms of defense and chemistry than 2-5 Cincy. Bills have fought through their injuries on defense, while Bengals have often languished in their problems, despite their proven talent on offense. Young DBs and LBs have helped generate 4 straight covers for Buffalo, which has also covered all 4 home games TY (and 8 of last 9 at Orchard Park).

(05-Buffalo +13' 37-27...SR: Buffalo 13-11)

San Diego 26 - MINNESOTA 13--Chargers now bringing their excellent talent to bear, cruising past last three opponents by a margin of 26 ppg. And, with Vikes' continuing QB issues (will it be Brooks Bollinger starting this week?), things will become increasingly difficult for rookie RB star Adrian Peterson (740 YR). Minny's pass defense (323 yds. vs. Philly last week) still problematic, while S.D. QB Rivers had 3 TDP last week and former Dolphin Chris Chambers caught a TDP in first game with the Bolts.

(03-SAN DIEGO +5' 42-28...SR: San Diego 5-4)

Seattle 27 - CLEVELAND 26--Seattle might no longer be able to lean as heavily upon Shaun Alexander, whose style isn't working lately because Seahawk OL failing to create the cut-back lanes Alexander once found with regularity for big runs. Or maybe it's because Alexander is now on the other side of 30. Yet Seattle's arsenal still plenty potent if WRs Deion Branch & D.J. Hackett return from injury (as expected), providing Matt Hasselbeck with improved targets. Cleveland "O" continues to percolate, but suspect 2ndary ranks way down in pass defense, contributing to Browns going "over" 6-0-1 in 2007. (03-SEATTLE -6 34-7...SR: Seattle 11-4)

INDIANAPOLIS 27 - New England 24--Indy has won & covered the last three meetings, including LY's exciting AFC title game, when the Colts trailed 21-6 at the half, but rallied to score the winning TD in the final minute. Who can knock N.E. and its 8-0 SU and spread record, 41 ppg offense, and Tom Brady's 30 TDP? No one. But if there is a more worthy foe than Indy to be a home underdog in the NFL, you've got a scoop. With Peyton Manning also at the top of his game, and with the healthy Bob Sanders leading 2007's quicker Colt defense, value lies with undefeated champs (13 straight home wins).

(06-Indy 27-N. ENG. 20...24-24 N.33/148 I.25/53 I.20/36/1/301 N.20/35/4/201 I.1 N.1)

(06-INDY 38-N. Eng. 34...I.32-17 I.30/125 N.24/93 I.27/47/1/330 N.21/34/1/226 I.0 N.0)

(06-Indianapolis +3 27-20, INDIANAPOLIS -3 38-34 (Playoffs)...SR: New England 43-27)

Houston 20 - OAKLAND 17--Yes, Houston was terrible in last week's 35-10 embarrassment in San Diego. But Oakland (0-3 when favored TY) has struggled for three straight games, generating a paltry 11 ppg. And the Raiders were fortunate not to get beat worse than 13-9 last week in Tennessee, when they recovered 3 of the 4 Daunte Culpepper fumbles. Whether it's Matt Schaub or Sage Rosenfels, the Texans bring more QBing to bear than the host, which has covered only 7 of last 28 in the "Not So Dark Hole."

(06-Hou. 23-OAK. 14...O.21-10 H.32/129 O.26/113 O.25/42/2/189 H.7/14/0/M5 H.2 O.3)

(06-Houston +3 23-14...SR: Houston 2-0)

UNDER THE TOTAL *Dallas 22 - PHILADELPHIA 16--Cowboys coughed up NFC East lead with pair of losses vs. Philly LY, with Terrell Owens limited to just 5 recs. for 68 yards by his old mates. Meanwhile, Donovan McNabb appeared to have regained his old form last week, hitting 23 of 36 for 333 YP vs. the Vikes, with no ints. & just two sacks (after 25 knockdowns the previous 6 games). But was that outburst vs. Minny a true indication of "problem solved" in Philly? We think not, with improved, rested, more versatile Dallas having the edge on both offense and defense. Eagles "under" 8 of last 11. TV--NBC

(06-PHIL. 38-Dal. 24...D.23-16 D.39/146 P.18/52 P.18/33/0/331 D.18/38/3/174 P.2 D.2)

(06-Phil. 23-DAL. 7...P.20-16 P.42/204 D.19/83 P.15/23/1/222 D.14/29/2/118 P.0 D.1)

(06-PHILADELPHIA +1 38-24, Philadelphia +7 23-7...SR: Dallas 53-42)

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 5

*PITTSBURGH 24 - Baltimore 20--QB Steve McNair (groin, back) and CB Chris McAlister (knee) are both expected to return for Baltimore. Both have lost something since their prime. However, bye week should help them stay within relatively roomy number, as Ben Roethlisberger was plenty bothered (4 sacks, 2 ints., 1 fumble) by the Denver pressure two weeks ago. And Baltimore (4 straight covers in series) can bring plenty of heat, as well. Steelers "over" 36-10-1 as host (but 1-2 TY). CABLE TV--ESPN

(06-BALT. 27-Pitt 0...B.19-17 B.35/114 P.11/21 B.21/27/0/161 P.22/42/2/151 B.0 P.1)

(06-Balt. 31-PITT 7...B.23-16 B.33/103 P.18/63 B.21/31/2/256 P.19/42/2/188 B.1 P.1)

(06-BALTIMORE -3 27-0, Baltimore +3' 31-7...SR: Pittsburgh 14-9)

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MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK:


NFL

5 BEST BET



Broncos finally take to the road after camping at home throughout
the month of October. History tells us it should not be much of
a problem, though, as Denver is 11-3 SUATS on the road after a
Monday Night performance, including 4-0 SUATS as a dog. The
bottom line is that we’re not all that enamored with the Lions’
lofty 5-2 record as they reside near the bottom of the league in a
majority of defensive stats. And because we like underdogs with
the better offense and the better defense, the feeling here is this
cowardly Lion gets exposed today when Denver improves on its 5-1
SU mark in this series.
Denver over DETROIT by 10



4 BEST BET
Truth of the matter is, off last week’s ‘inside-out’ win last Sunday
against Tampa Bay, we were prepared to fade the Jags today.
Then, after deeper research, we did an ABOUT FACE. Not only
does Marc’s BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article (see page 2) come into
play here today, but so, too, does Jack Del Rio’s glossy dog log
in non-vision games. That’s because he is 10-4 SU & 11-3 ATS in
these games when his team takes the fi eld with a .500 or better
record, including 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS when taking less than six
points. Expect the Saints' win skein to stop at three as they dip to
1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in games off a trio of wins.
Jacksonville over NEW ORLEANS by 8



3 BEST BET
If there’s one constant in the NFL we’ve come to rely on it’s
Panther head coach John Fox taking points. That’s confi rmed
by his sterling 22-6-1 ATS mark as a road dog in his NFL career,
including 21-3-1 ATS when taking 8 or fewer points. Whew! Meld
those numbers into Tennessee's terrible 1-10 ATS log as a favorite
off a non-division game when facing a foe off a loss and suddenly
it’s a Pointer Sisters feeling (We’re All Excited). Vinny or no Vinny,
we’re on a Fox hunt here today.
Carolina over TENNESSEE by 7

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Sports Memo

Capper/record/this weeks pick/last week

Teddy Covers 8-0 NC State +12.5 (W) Central Michigan -2
Rob Veno 6-1-1 LSU -7 (W) West Virginia -6
David Jones 6-2 Alabama +7.5 (W) Georgia +9
Fairway Jay 5-3 Georgia Tech -2.5 (L) Dolphins Over 47.5
Sonny Palermo 4-3-1 Falcons -3 (L) Vikings pk
Ed Cash 4-4 Indiana -6.5 (W) Mississippi State +13.5
Brent Crow 3-4-1 Stanford +3 (L) Texas A&M +2.5
Donnie Black 3-5 Colorado +4 (L) Duke +17.5
Marty Otto 2-5-1 Browns Over 46.5 (W) Georgia +9
Erin Rynning 2-6 Oklahoma State +3 (L) Jets Over 37
Tim Trushel 2-6 Syracuse +12 (W) Washington State +6
Jared Klein 1-7 Indiana -6.5 (L) 49ers Under 40.5

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EROCKMONEY

NFL: 32-21 21-16 SIDES 11-5 TOTALS

(1.) Kansas City (-2.5) v. Green Bay

I love picking against teams coming off wins on Monday night, unless their are elite teams like the Pats and Colts. I, unlike the majority of the public, think Herm Edwards is a great coach. He took the average Jets and Chiefs to the playoffs and everyone wants to run him out of town. Arrowhead is the most difficult place to play in the League and the Chiefs are healthy coming off a bye week.

Pick: Chiefs by 7

(2.) Minnesota (+8.5) v. San Diego

Everything points to a Chargers blowout in this one, but I'm just not feeling it. The Vikings are a very difficult team to blowout as I've stated before. They can run the ball and they can stop the run, like a poor mans Jacksonville. The Metrodome is loud and will cause the Chargers problems. Rivers has been very unimpressive this season, unless Tomlinson is running wild or the defense is forcing mass turnovers. Tomlinson won't be running wild in this one, although the Vikings terrible passing game could turn the ball over often. I think the Vikings show up.

Pick: Chargers by 5

(3.) Tampa Bay (-3.5) v. Arizona

I was impressed with Tampa last week in a loss versus the Jags. I thought the Bucs really outplayed Jacksonville. Garcia missed a wide open Galloway twice, one for a sure TD, and Hilliard for a game winning score late. I like the Whisenhut / Grimm combination, but not this year. The Cardinals are soft and one thing the Bucs aren't is soft. The Bucs outhit and outplay the Cards.

Pick: Bucs by 9

(Blowout of the Week) Cleveland (-1) v. Seattle

The Browns have been playing great at home and the Seahawks struggle on the road. Cleveland needs this one with tough divisional road games on the horizon. The Seahawks are always a solid "play against" on the road unless they are going against a really poor team. Anderson and the Browns remain hot in this surprising blowout.

Pick: Browns by 14

(Upset Special) Carolina (+4) at Tennessee

Once again this a game everyone thinks the Panthers will lose, so they will win. The Titans are excellent at home and are better at almost every position than the Panthers. Fox gets the crew fored up for this one especially after a blowout loss to the Colts.

Pick: Panthers by 4

(Under 57) New England at Indianapolis

Unlike the shootout everyone expects, I think the defense will show up. The Colts are a more complete team the Patriots and have faced stiffer competition this season. A surprising defensive struggle in this one.

(Over 35.5) Washington at NY Jets

Clemens makes his debut as the full-time starter for the Jets and he won't let the faithful fans down. I like this young QB and his arm strength brings a new dimension to the Jets offense and their speedy WR's. I expect both teams to score in this one and easily clear the 35.5

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Wayne Root


Chairman - Jets
Millionaire - Colts
Money Maker - Panthers
No Limit - Eagles
Billionaire - Vikings

He has no "Insiders Circle" selection today

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Maddux Sports

5*
Philadelphia +3.5 -120 (Sunday Night Game of the Year)

4*
Houston +3 -120

3*
San Francisco +3.5 -120
Minnesota +7.5 -115
Indianapolis +5.5

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Kelso

15 Unit Detroit -3 over Denver

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Insider Sports Report


4* New England/Indianapolis (NFL) OVER 56.5
Range 54.5 to 58.5

3* Seattle/Cleveland (NFL) OVER 46.5
Range 44.5 to 48.5

3* Jacksonville/New Orleans (NFL) OVER 40
Range 38.5 to 42

3* Atlanta -3 over San Fran (NFL)
Range -1.5 to -5

3* Dallas -3 over Philadelphia (NFL)
Range -1.5 to -5
Reply With Quote

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