TheSpread.com

WUNDERDOG

Game: Portland at San Antonio (8:00 PM Eastern)

Pick: Game Total UNDER 189.5 -110

Portland's season took a hit when No. 1 pick, Greg Oden had season-ending knee surgery over the summer. The fact that they traded their most productive player, in Zack Randolph, and with Brandon Roy, their No. 2 scorer out as well with a heel problem, makes you wonder where the points will come from. San Antonio has long made it clear that they are committed to defending the court. The team led the NBA in points allowed last season, and they have a penchant for establishing that early in the season. The last five years, the Spurs’ early home games (first seven of the year), they have played 27 UNDERS to just eight OVERS. That is 77% of the time, so what this team is about is established right away. Portland really struggled last season against the top defenses. They averaged close to 10 points a game less than their overall average on the road against the NBA's top six defensive teams. They could manage just 83 ppg! Missing their two top scorers from last season won't help, and the Spurs like to get the message out early that are willing to defend. This game goes under.