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Dave COKIN --- IS NOW 15-6 ON THE YEAR ON THESE EARLY RELEASES :


S. FLORIDA


CINCI


WEST VIRGINIA

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Sebastion

20* Rutgers

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Dr. Bob

Thursday, October 18
RUTGERS 24 South Florida (-2 ½) 23
South Florida has climbed all the way to #3 in the polls and #2 in the initial BCS rankings, but that means that they are now the hunted and it looks like another top 5 team may go down to defeat. The Bulls are fantastic defensively, allowing just 3.8 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team, but Rutgers has been nearly as good offensively. The Scarlet Knights have averaged 7.3 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. That attack has not played as well, on a relative basis, against decent defensive teams, but I’d still rate Rutgers’ attack at 1.1 yppl better than average after taking that into account. While South Florida has a 0.4 yppl advantage when Rutgers has the ball, the Scarlet Knights have an even bigger edge when their defense is on the field. South Florida has been only 0.2 yppl better than average on offense this season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), but Rutgers is 0.7 yppl better than average on defense (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defense). I decided to take Rutgers’ game against an overmatched Norfolk State out of my math model while also taking out South Florida’s game against Elon (the Bulls actually didn’t play well in that game as they could have been looking forward to Auburn). The math still favors Rutgers by 1 point and there are positive situations favoring both teams in this game. I’ll lean with Rutgers as a home dog.

TCU (-3 ½) 24 Utah 22
Utah has won 3 straight games since quarterback Brian Johnson returned to the starting lineup and the Utes have a chance to make it 4 in a row tonight. Johnson doesn’t have the receiving corps that allowed him to average 7.7 yards per pass play as a starter in 2005 and his numbers are a bit below average after compensating for the poor pass defenses that he’s been throwing against. The rushing attack went from horrible to decent when coaches decided not to redshirt Darrell Mack and Mack has piled up 622 yards in his 5 starts while averaging 5.2 ypr. Utah is still 0.2 yards per play below average offensively even with Johnson at quarterback and Mack running the ball and that unit should struggle against a Horned Frogs defense that is 0.7 yppl better than average and has only allowed Texas to average more than 5.0 yppl (Texas only got 5.6 yppl). TCU’s mediocre attack (0.1 yppl below average with Dalton at quarterback) will also struggle in this game against a solid Utah stop unit that’s yielded only 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl against an average team. These teams are very even from the line of scrimmage, but Utah has an edge on special teams and my math model only favors the Horned Frogs by 2 points. TCU tends to play their best at home against decent teams (22-6 ATS at home when not favored by more than 13 points), but Utah has a long history of success as an underdog (43-15-2 ATS, 5-3-1 ATS under their current coach). I’ll lean with the Utes but wouldn’t recommend playing this game given the team trends that favor both sides.

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Director sports:

Rutgers
TCU

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Headline: The still undefeated Gonzalez likes TCU this week

TCU -3
Utah at TCU, today at 5 p.m.

TCU's Horned Frogs have one of the best home records in the country at 37-5 since 2003. This year they are 3-0 at home and have an average margin of victory of 17.7 points per game. TCU's defense really picks it up a notch when playing in Fort Worth, holding opponents to 6.3 points per game. Two of the last five home games have been shutouts for the Horned Frogs.
TCU's offense started slow, but has come on strong in the last three games averaging 412 yards and 27.7 points per game. Quarterback Andy Dalton is coming off a strong performance against Stanford, when he threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns. The running game has been productive in home games, averaging 174.7 yards per game.
Under coach Gary Patterson, the Horned Frogs have been one of the best teams in the country, reaching 11 wins in three of the last four seasons. The 2007 Mountain West preseason player of the year, Aaron Brown, looks to be back after scoring two touchdowns in the fourth quarter against Stanford. With a solid game plan and defense, look for the Horned Frogs to get their running game going, to win and cover easily.

--Jorge Gonzalez, Listen to Gonzalez, "The Leader in Sports Handicapping," on the Good Sports Show on 720 AM (thats KDWN, Las Vegas, available on streaming audio on the net), Saturday and Sunday from midnight-2 a.m.

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Lt Profits:

Utah

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Northcoast :

Opinion - S. Florida

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PPP:

Opinion Rutgers
Opinion Over Rutgers
Opinion Utah
Opinion Over Utah

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Opposite Action Plays - All Picks: 23-7 last 30: 11-2 CFB

S. Florida / Rutgers UNDER 52

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Pacific Star 28-16 last 44 all sports

S. FLORIDA -2

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ATS Financial Package

3 Units TCU -3 1/2

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Drew Gordon Thursday Plays:
Today's Games...

300,000♦ Utah

100,000♦ Red Sox

Utah- Several reasons to like the Utes here, but none bigger than their signal caller, Brian Johnson, who finally has the Utah offense firing on all cylinders. They've topped 500+ total yards two weeks in a row, and shouldn't have much trouble against a Horned Frogs defense that has gotten torched in their last two contests.
If you watched TCU's last two games, you saw their defense get demolished for a combined 60 points on 730 total yards! Its plain as day that this TCU defense sorely misses its two stalwarts on the D-line, Blake and Vess. Look for Utah to exploit this weakness, using Johnson and Mack (who's been on fire) to run all over the Horned Frogs.
Also consider Utah's defense, which statisically maybe similar to TCU, but over the last 3 weeks has been solid. Even limiting Louisville to 35 points at Papa John's Stadium ain't half bad, when you consider what Brohm and the Cardinals have been doing offensively this season. While TCU's offense "appears" to be back on track, only once this season have they scored more than 3 TDs. But didn't they show improvement against Stanford, scoring 38 points? No, the fact of the matter is Stanford's defense is ranked 106th in the nation.
Bottom line, Utah's offense will score early and often against this sputtering TCU defense, which immediately puts the Horned Frogs offense in a bind, as playing in comeback mode isn't their specialty. While neither team can afford to lose this conference game, the Utes have the edges necessary on both sides of the ball to keep this one razor close, with the outright upset a definate possibilty.
Take Utah plus the points over Texas Christian as your top-rated play of the day.

Red Sox- Momentum is strong thing, but two things override the momentum the Indians have built in winning 3 straight: Josh Beckett and the Red Sox bats against lefties.
Do I even need to tell you Josh Beckett is the man? He allowed 2 runs over 6 solid innings in the ALCS opener, easily outpitching Sabathia. He was even better in the Divisional Series opener, getting the shutout win over a baffled Angels club, allowing just 4 hits overall! There's no reason to believe he won't produce another impressive effort tonight at Jacobs, period.
Speaking of Sabathia, I told you in the series opener that the Red Sox have been killing lefties, batting .368 against them over their last 10 games. They've also won 6 of their last 7 contests against left-handed starters, including the series opener, when they crushed Sabathia for 8 runs in just 4 1/3 innings! That's as strong a case against a lefty as I've seen in a while, plain and simple. Look for Boston, and especially the meat of their lineup, Ortiz, Ramirez, and Lowell to deliver tonight.
I know the Red Sox haven't played well on the road this postseason, but this is the match up they wanted. They got Beckett on the mound fully-rested and ready to rock, not to mention another crack at Sabathia, whom they dominated in Game 1. Up 3 to 1, there's some room for a letdown here, as the Indians have relatively cruised the last two... Look for Boston to extend this series behind their ace tonight at Jacobs.
Take the Red Sox behind Beckett over the Indians in Game 5 of the ALCS.

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Wolkosky Milan


10* RUTGERS +3
10* TCU -3½
10* SFU/RUT OVER 52



10* INDIANS
10* BOS/CLE UNDER

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Kelso 25-unit

USF -2

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lem banker

rutgers

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TOUTHOUSE TOP PLAY CLUB

Thursday, October 18th 2007
TOP PLAY: TCU Horned Frogs -3 (1.5 Units)
TOP UNDERDOG: No Selection Today
TOP TOTAL: No Selection Today

TOP OPINIONS:
NCAAF - Rutgers Scarlet Knights +2 (1/2 Unit)
MLB - Boston Red Sox -120 (1/2 Unit)
NHL - New York Islanders +140 (1/2 Unit)
NHL - Florida Panthers +110 (1/2 Unit)

(Early Bird) NCAAF - Colorado Buffaloes +3.5 (1/2 Unit)
(Early Bird) NCAAF - Navy Midshipmen +3 (1/2 Unit)

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Cal Sports
5* Total of Year---under 8 Clev/Boston

Billy Coleman
5* Boston (GOY)

3* Utah

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Scott Spreitzer's CFB Thursday Nite Game of the Month! (29-11, 73% ATS!)

Scott's GAME OF THE MONTH run has reached 29-11, 73% winners! Scott passed last Thursday, but WON HIS SEC GOM two weeks ago with South Carolina. Put the Station Casino's ALL-TIME WINS CHAMP to work for you!

TCU -3

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Marc Lawrence

South Florida Bulls at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Thursday, October 18th, 7:45 P.M. EST EST

Key game inside the Big East Conference pits two teams with Top 15 defenses, each of whom which surrender less than 300 YPG on the season. Look for a defensive battle under the ESPN lights tonight. Good Luck - Marc Lawrence

Play on: Under

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