Sunday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports:

Sunday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports:

MTI - WEEKEND PLAYS

Killer Sports/MTI

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Heres the plays
5*Pats -5..38~17
4*Houston + 6 1/2...~Jags 24~23

4* Tenny over 38
Tenny 24~21

Teaser of the Month
5-star Miami +15, Chicago +5, Baltimore +0’
who knows if this is true but this is what it says

The combined record of this week’s teaser trends is 109-1-1.

Perfect NFL Systems ACTIVE Week 6
system sports Data Query Language
The league is 10-0 ATS (+16.3 ppg) since 12/31/2005 as a dog after a
win as a home favorite in which they made more field goals than touchdowns.
(HOU)



The league is 0-12 ATS (-13.5 ppg) since December 17th 2006 as a
home favorite when they stopped their opponent on at least 10 third downs
attempted as a favorite last week. (JAC, GB)



The league is 0-12 ATS (-8.8 ppg)since December 26th 2005, at home
after a road loss last week in which their opponent never had goal to go.
(NYJ)



The league is 0-9 ATS (-14.6 ppg) since December 10th 2006 at home
after a road loss in which they converted more than 50% of thier 3rd downs.
(NYJ)



The League is 0-10 ATS (-11.9 ppg) since November 05, 2006 within 3 of
pick at home when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak. (KC, TB, GB)



The League is 0-8 ATS (-14.0 ppg) since December 10, 2006 as a favorite
the week after on the road in which their completion percentage was at least
ten points higher than their season-to-date average. (JAC, TB)


The League is 7-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since October 24, 2004 as a road dog
the week after a loss on the road as a dog in which they led after each of the
first three quarters. (MIA)


The League is 0-10 ATS (-16.0 ppg) since November 23, 2006 within
3 of pick after a loss in which they were winning at the end of the third
quarter. (NYJ, GB))

The League is 0-8 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since October 08, 2006 as a home
favorite the week after a straight up win as a favorite in which they had at
least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. (ARZ)

The League is 0-11 ATS (-14.0 ppg) since December 10, 2006 as a home
favorite the week after in which they had at least three fewer minutes of
possession time than their season-to-date average. (SEA, TB)

The League is 7-0 OU (25.1 ppg) since October 22, 2006 within 3 of
pick the week after a straight up loss when the line was within 3 of pick’em
in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their
season-to-date average. (KC)

The League is 7-0 OU (17.2 ppg) since October 31, 2004 as a favorite
after a loss at home as a favorite in which they were winning at the end of
the third quarter. (GB)

The League is 10-0 OU (11.2 ppg) since September 25, 2005 as a home
favorite when they lost by 19+ points last week against a non-divisional
opponent. (SEA, TB)

The League is 0-6 OU (-16.3 ppg) since December 04, 2005 as a road
7+ dog the week after a straight up loss in which they had at least 100 more
yards of offense than their season-to-date average. (STL)



MTi’s OU Trend of the Week!!
Rams ravens over

SYSTEM ANALYSIS
Skins

COLLeGe sYsTeM OF THe WeeK
Northern illi

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Dr. Bob

Rotation #226 Dallas (+5 1/2) 3-Stars at +4 or more, 2-Stars at +3 1/2.
Rotation #220 Tampa Bay (-3) 3-Stars at -3 (+105 odds or more) or less, 2-Stars at -3 (even to -115 odds).
Rotation #213 Minnesota (+5 1/2) 2-Stars at +4 or more.
Rotation #215 Philadelphia (-3) 2-Stars at -4 or less, 3-Stars at -3 at (-115 odds or less).

Strong Opinion - Rotation #230 Seattle (-6 1/2) Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #209-210 Houston-Jacksonville Strong Opinion OVER (37) 38 points or less, 2-Star OVER 36 1/2 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #211-212 Miami-Cleveland Strong Opinion OVER 45 points or less.

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ACE/ACE

OAK +10-105.........................................$2400. 00

MINN +5 -105..........................................$2200 .00

TEN +3.-105.............................................$2000.00

TWO ACTION
ARI -4.5-107............................................... .$500.00

NYG UNDER 44-105..................................$500.00

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Selective Sports Systems




Rare 10 star - NE-Dall under 52 or better

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Selective Sports Systems




Rare 10 star - NE-Dall under 52 or better

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Selective Sports Systems




Rare 10 star - NE-Dall under 52 or better

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Pointwise Newsletter

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Rating:2 New England 34 Dallas 27

Rating:3 Oakland 22 San Diego 27

Rating:4 Tennessee 24 Tampa Bay 17

Rating:4 Seattle 31 New Orleans 14

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LineCrusher

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4*Jacksonville -6.5 over Houston
The Jaguars lost their home opener (division home opener) 10-13 vs Tennessee but have since won 3 straight and at 3-1 are in early playoff contention. Being 0-1 in division play and this being a division game a game Jacksonville should want considering they lost both games vs Houston last season. Those two losses vs the Texans (6-10 last season) were one of the reasons why Jacksonville was 8-8 and did not make the playoffs. With Houston being 3-2 doubt the Jaguars will take the Texans lightly and Jacksonville has a +46 net rushing yardage edge in this match-up. My computer line is Jacksonville by 7.5 points which isn't much of an edge but the intangible factors are. A division home game the Jaguars should want.

3*Minnesota +5 over Chicago
Statistically, the wrong team is favored. Minnesota has a +49 net rushing yardage edge in this match-up and the Vikings have a substantial +1.8 net yards per play edge in this match-up. Minnesota has the advantage of coming out of a bye week and the Vikings are playing with double revenge having lost both games vs the Bears last season. My computer line is Minnesota by 1 point, my year to date power ratings make it Minnesota by 11 points and my yards per play formula makes it Minnesota by 9. Upset...

4*Philadelphia -3 over Jets
The Jets at 1-4 are done. If there was a game they wanted it was last week which was a 24-35 loss vs the Giants and although listed as a road game for the Jets they both obviously play in Giants Stadium. The Eagles are 1-3, off of a loss, have the advantage of coming out of a bye week needing a win and can start salvaging their season with a win here. By the way, the Eagles last loss was a 3-16 loss vs the Giants in Giants Stadium week #4 before their bye week so they are returning to where their last loss was which I am sure they are aware of. Philadelphia has a +49 net rushing yardage edge in this match-up and the Eagles have a substantial +1.5 net yards per play edge in this match-up. My computer line is Philadelphia by 6.5 points, my year to date power ratings make it Philadelphia by 10 points and my yards per play formula makes it Philadelphia by 7.

3*Washington +3 over Green Bay
Statistically, the wrong team is favored. Washington has a +62 net rushing yardage edge in this match-up and the Skins have a +0.6 net yards per play differential in this match-up. The Packers are only rushing for 68 yards per game and that will not cut it in the NFL, especially when the weather gets bad which isn't far off. My computer line is Washington by 4.5 points, my year to date power ratings make it Washington by 6 points and my yards per play formula makes it Washington by 1. Upset...

3*Oakland +10 over San Diego
Percentage play on Oakland as a double digit underdog who is not as bad as people may think and it is no secret San Diego is struggling albeit they won 41-3 at Denver last week. Oakland has the advantage of coming out of a bye week and this is a meaningful division revenge game for the Raiders who have lost 7 straight vs the Chargers. The Raiders have a +84 net rushing yardage edge in this match-up which is huge and the Raiders also have a +0.1 net yards per play differential in this match-up. Statistically, the Raiders are not a double digit underdog in this match-up. Public perception... My computer line is Oakland by 1.5 points, my year to date power ratings make it San Diego by 1 and my yards per play formula makes it San Diego by 2.5 points. The Chargers 41-3 drubbing at Denver last week and now a double digit home favorite vs a team they have beat 7 straight sets them up for another fall. An outright win by the Raiders would be no surprise in this situation.

4*Seattle -6.5 over New Orleans
The Saints at 0-4 are done. If they were going to pull out their season they would have done it in week #3 being 0-2 and at home on Monday Night Football. The Saints had a bye then lost at home again last week to go 0-4. New Orleans has a whopping -1.6 net yards per play differential, the Saints offense has to go 24 yards to score a point while the Saints defense only makes opponents go 11 yards to score a point. Over the last 4+ seasons Seattle is 31-7 at home and the Seahawks should want this national TV home game coming off of last weeks embarrassing 0-21 loss at Pittsburgh. Seattle is a playoff contender and this is not a home game you lose vs an 0-4 team. My computer line is Seattle by 18.5 points, my year to date power ratings make it Seattle by 17 points and my yards per play formula makes it Seattle by 13.5 points.

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Ferringo:
NFL SELECTIONS
6-Unit Play. Take #225 New England (-5.5) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Month.

This line has skyrocketed since Tuesday and, frankly, I’m stunned by it. That being said, you can’t argue with New England’s success. They have much more experience in these types of games and Tom Brady has been unreal in his career on turf. This is the fourth team that the Pats have played that employs the 3-4 defense and the Pats have covered against all of them. New England is 27-10 ATS on the road, 9-1 ATS as a road favorite, and they have a host of other trends that tell me one thing: the Patriots win. The Cowboys looked awful on MNF and that win reminded me an awful lot of Chicago’s victory in Arizona last year. Of course, the following week the Bears got creamed at home by Miami. I’ll take Brady and Belichick in this one.

Also, there is a system play here: play against a home underdog off a short week that failed to cover on the road in its previous game. That system has hit at 71 percent over the past 10 years.

5-Unit Play. Take #224 Arizona (-4) over Carolina (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
Note: Rate this as a 4.5-Unit Play if the line is -4.5 or higher. No play at -6.0 or above - unless David Carr doesn't play.

Never thought I’d live to see the day when Arizona was a solid home favorite play. But the bottom line is that their defense plays exceptional at home and they are facing an incredibly shaky Panthers squad. There is a specific system here – play against road teams with a winning record off an upset win – that has hit at 62.4 percent since 1983! David Carr is shaky enough when he’s healthy. But he’s been limited by injury and even though he’ll start on Sunday he isn’t 100 percent and we’re one rough hit away from a Vinny Testaverde sighting. Read that last sentence again and then walk confidently up to the window.

4.5-Unit Play. Take #219 Tennessee (+3) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
This one is automatic. The Titans are 13-3 ATS overall and 13-3 ATS as an underdog over the past two seasons. Jeff Fisher is 14-1 SU against NFC South opponents and Tennessee’s dominating defense should control the Tampa Bay offense. The Bucs have picked up their three wins against teams with a combined 3-11 overall record. I’m not impressed. The Bucs are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 as a favorite and I see the Titans winning this one outright so consider that moneyline as well.

3-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #213 Minnesota (+11.5) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14) AND Take #210 Jacksonville (Pick) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
The Chicago-Minnesota game is going to be a battle, and we’ll take the points. Chicago is coming off a huge win on Sunday night and now they face a well-rested Vikings defense. There is a system that has hit at 69.2 percent since 1997 that is in play here and I think that in a low scoring game having the points will be to our advantage.

Jacksonville was swept by Houston last year and I do think that they have revenge on their minds. I know that’s a reach considering that Houston is 6-4 overall against the Jags. But Houston is still banged up and have had a ton of trouble running the ball. It isn’t going to get any easier against a brutal Jags rush defense.

2-Unit Play. Take #229 New Orleans (+7) over Seattle (8 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
Over the past decade, teams that start the season 0-4 SU are a combined 23-11 ATS as an underdog in their fifth game of the season. Seven points are a lot to give up in any NFL game, and the Seahawks are just squirrelly enough to keep the Saints close. The Seahawks are 2-7-1 ATS as a favorite, 4-9-1 ATS against the NFC, and just 5-23 ATS in October games.

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 53.0 New England at Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
This too is automatic. Games set at 50.0 or higher over the last three seasons are just 2-14 against the total. Granted, not too many of those games have featured two teams averaging 35 points per game, but this is one of those trends that goes against the grain and one that I will always play when given the opportunity. We are already 2-0 this year going ‘under’ on totals of 50+ so we’re going to go with it.

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 37.5 Minnesota at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
The Vikings don’t have the weapons to take advantage of Chicago’s weakened defense and the Bears don’t have the strength up front to sustain drives against the Vikings front seven. I will be very surprised if this game sees more than 30 points and I don’t see more than three combined touchdowns.

2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 45.0 Miami at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
Let me get this straight: a game where the starting quarterbacks are Cleo Lemon and Derek Anderson has one of the highest totals of the weekend? I don't think so. Cleveland has gone 'over' in all five of its games this year, but against the Patriots it took a fluke pick-six to push the game over the total. That's a red flag and I expect their streak to come to an end.

2-Unit Play. Take #227 Oakland (+10) over San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
The Raiders have lost seven straight against the Chargers. But if they’re not ready to compete with them now they likely never will be. This is a ton of points in a rivalry game and after an extra week of rest and preparation I think that Oakland is ready to go toe-to-toe with San Diego.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTION
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 43.5 New York Giants at Atlanta (8 p.m., Monday, Oct. 15)
The Falcons are 15-0 against the total as an underdog in the week following a road game in which they got a first down in less than 25 percent of their offensive plays. Kind of a weird trend, eh? Some more tangible numbers are that the Giants are 8-2 against a total in this range, 7-1 as a favorite (5-0 as a road chalk), and the Falcons are 5-0 against the total as a home dog. Finally, the ‘over’ is 11-4-1 in Atlanta’s last 16 home games. The Falcons haven’t done much scoring this season, but they’ve also faced three of the top six scoring defenses (Minnesota, Jacksonville, Tennessee) in the league this year. Against the two average defenses they faced – Houston and Carolina – the Falcons averaged 23.0 points and went ‘over’ in both games.

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Wild Bill

Cincinnati -3 (3 units)
Houston +6 1/2 (1 unit)
Chicago -5 1/2 (1 unit)
Eagles -2 1/2 (5 units)
Tennessee +3 (1 unit)
Oakland +10 (1 unit)
New Orleans +6 1/2 (1 unit)
Giants -3 (2 units)

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Victor MOnte GOY

Chiefs

Silver Fox GOY

Texans

Superbest bet

2* Pats

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EXPERT: Bryan Leonard
TITLE: NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year!
REASON FOR PICK: Patriots/Cowboys under: The public is focused in on these outstanding offenses, which is why this total is high. They are completely overlooking two of the top defenses in the NFL. Last year the Patriots were No. 5 in total defense, the Cowboys were 13th. This season they are second and 8th. The defensive personnel on both sides is deep and strong. The Patriots are outstanding against the run and the addition of Adalius Thomas has improved and already strong LB corps. Dallas is allowing just 80 yards rushing per game and Bill Parcells built a very talented LB corps for new coach Wade Phillips. The Patriots just got S Rodney Harrison back last week after a 4-game suspension. It's not going to be easy for either team to score in the red zone, forcing more field goals than oddsmakers think. The last 18 times an NFL total has been this high, the under is 15-3. We saw that already this season when the Colts and Saints met and the public bet the total up and up and up, and it sailed under. It is likely the Patriots defensive game plan will be to keep QB Tony Romo in the pocket, where he is far less comfortable. Belichick has the schemes and the personnel to get that done. The Cowboys love to blitz under Phillips and the Pats should struggle to run with RB Laurence Maroney still ailing (he's missed 2 straight games). PLAY THE PATRIOTS/COWBOYS UNDER THE TOTAL

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Al

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4* Vikings
3* Az Cards; Cowboys; Bengals
Opinion Texans; Packers

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POWER SWEEP NEWSLETTER

NFL

4* Philadelphia (over N.Y.Jets)

3* New England (over Dallas)

2* Oakland (over San Diego)

2* Cleveland (over Miami)


OVER/UNDER NFL:

3* Redskins/Packers UNDER 41

3* Raiders/Chargers UNDER 44

2* Panthers/Cardinals OVER 40

2* Rams/Ravens UNDER 37.5

2* Dolphins/Browns OVER 43


PRO STAT PLAY : Philadelphia


PRO ANGLES : (3) Cleveland


SYSTEM SECTION

Play on any team that allowed 28 or more points last week if they have a bye on deck.

1995-2007 29-10-1 74%

This Weeks Plays : Cleveland & Arizona


SOME WORTHY NOTES :

In the pros the (4) Angle plays are 18-8 65% the last 3 years. Only a (3) Angle play this week.

The Systems Section has been a consistent winner for 24 years.

The Power Rating play of the week : 1995-2007 is 68-42-1 62% 7 years.(This week : No Play)

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Ben Burns' #1 AFC GAME OF THE MONTH! *EARLY KICKOFF

It's been a decade of dominance on the gridiron for Ben Burns and it continued in a BIG way last weekend. The Man was a PERFECT 5-0 with his NFL sides last week, including a massive winner with his NFC North GOY on Chicago. Burns returns with an absolute showstopper from the "other" conference this week.

DOLPHINS +3

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Ben Burns' 2007 NFL "BLOWOUT" GAME OF THE YEAR! (EARLY KICK)

Ben Burns was a perfect 5-0 with his NFL sides last week, including a 34-3 ROUT with his "blowout special" on the Skins. If you liked that romp, you're simply going to LOVE this week's monster, as it's got all the makings of an absolute masscre. In fact, it's Ben's #1 GAME BLOWOUT OF THE YEAR!

RAVENS -10

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Ben Burns' #1 NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Ben Burns was a sizzling 5-1 with his NFL picks on Sunday, including an easy winner on Sea/Pitt. "under" the total. However, he came up just short with his AFC Total of the Year in the SD/Denver game. The Man doesn't have a GrandMaster Rating with his NFL totals for nothing though & he's only releasing one today!

UNDER Raiders/Chargers 43

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Ben Burns' 3-Game EXEC. Report (includes Sunday Night G.O.M!)

Ben Burns has released four 3-Game "Executive Reports" in the NFL over the past month, going a perfect 4-0 with those packages and a powerful 9-3 with the individual plays. That includes a 3-game sweep with last Sunday's card. Burns is getting out the broom again this week. First game goes early.

COWBOYS (+4 or better)

BUCS (-3 or better)

SAINTS (+6 or better) Sunday Night GOM

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Marc Lawrence Playbook

5* Eagles

4* Vikings

3* Raiders

Totals

5* Browns under

4* Bears over

3* Packers under

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RED SHEET



NFL

Tennessee 24 - TAMPA BAY 19 - (1:00) -- Line opened at TampaBay minus 2½, and is now minus 3. The
brilliant accomplishments of the Titans, under the leadership of Vince Young, just continue
on. An amazing 14-2 spread run, winning 9 of their last 11 on the field. A week ago, Young
was an unlikely 0/3 (touchdown passes to interceptions), & yet Tennessee still prevailed,
20-13, over Atlanta, missing the spread by a mere pt (what else is new in the NFL?). But
that line miss only served to move the success of the underdog in Tennessee games to
mind-blowing 12-0 ATS. So here we go again, grabbing the Titans in the role of dogs,
thanks to the recent improvement of the Bucs, who covered their last 2 HGs by 34 pts, but
who are also in off a 28-12 FD deficit in their stepup shot at Indy. Upset call.
RATING: TENNESSEE 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): NFL: Miami, NewEngland, Atlanta

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): NFL: Houston (+8 to +6½); StLouis (+11 to +10); Oakland (+11 to +10);
NewOrleans (+7½ to +6½)



RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY

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