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Monday Service Picks and Free Consensus Report:

Re: Monday Service Picks and Free Consensus Report:

Bob Balfe/sunday Selections



Cowboys / Bills UNDER 45 (NFL: 8:30 ET)

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Re: Monday Service Picks and Free Consensus Report:

Insider-picks ;

7* Buffalo +10.5

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Re: Monday Service Picks and Free Consensus Report:

John Ryan

Cleveland Indians vs. New York Yankees (MLB)
Oct 8, 2007 7:35 PM EDT

Play: New York Yankees

Ai Simulator 1* graded play on the NYY – This is a pretty easy call to make given the pitching mismatch. This is only a 1* graded play due to the high line and the simple fact that Cleveland is an elite team. Still, risk/reward profiles form the AiS show that this is a solid 1* investment o make. Supporting this graded play is the fact that CLEVELAND is 4-11 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season. CLEVELAND is 24-40 (-19.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NYY are 11-2 and +7.5 units as a home favorite of -175 to -200 this season

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Re: Monday Service Picks and Free Consensus Report:

BIG AL

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills plus the points over Dallas. In the NFL, one of the more reliable situations is to take any double-digit home underdog. These teams have been solid ATS, and especially against a foe off a SU win, going 56-39 ATS since 1980. A lot of times, when a team is a double-digit home dog, it's because they're in complete disarray and/or have lots of injuries. One thing I like to do is filter out teams in a free fall. Thus, if we eliminate teams that have failed to cover the spread by more than a touchdown in each of their previous two games, we improve our 55-39 set to 50-24 ATS. Buffalo checks in off an upset win, 17-4, over the Jets last week, so the Bills fall into our 50-24 subset. Now, another reason a team might be a double-digit home underdog is that it is matched up against a terrific opponent. Clearly, Dallas is pretty good at 4-0, and if our double digit dog is matched up against an .800 (or better) foe, then we improve our 50-24 set to 29-7 ATS. The last game in this system was a year ago in Monday Night Football, and Arizona almost upset the undefeated Bears, losing 24-23 as a 12.5-point underdog. I look for a similar outcome at Rich Stadium tonight. Take the Bills. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie. And don't miss my Baseball Winner as we're 7-2 in the Playoffs.


At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees with Chien Ming Wang over Cleveland and Paul Byrd. Wang was the Game 1 loser last Thursday and will be pitching on three days' rest, but he only lasted 4 2/3 innings in that game and will be ready tonight. Wang won 19 games on the season, and had a 2.75 ERA at home this year (in 16 starts) with a 1.13 WHIP, and a .235 opponent batting average against. Even more impressive has been his record in nighttime starts, as he is 13-2 (in 18 starts). In 2006, Wang was also solid at night, going 12-3 (in 21 starts), and he was 11-3 at home that season (in 17 starts) with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. The Indians have struggled at Yankee Stadium, winning just 3 of 21 games, and Paul Byrd has a high ERA at night this year (4.88 ERA) with a .304 batting average against. Last year, Byrd also struggled at night, with a 5-7 record (in 22 starts) with a 5.66 ERA and a .333 batting average against. And in his only start vs. the Bronx Bombers this season, he surrendered seven runs in two innings, for his worst outing of the year. He's not defeated New York in seven straight starts, going 0-4 with a 4.87 ERA. Take New York. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

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Re: Monday Service Picks and Free Consensus Report:

JOHN RYAN

John Ryan

Monday's plays

Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Dallas – I just do not see anyway whatsoever that Buffalo defense would be capable of containing the Dallas offense for four full quarters. AiS shows an 83% probability that they will win the game by 11 or more points and also a 90% probability that they they will gain 400 or more yards in total offense. Note that Dallas is 24-8 ATS when they gain 400 to 450 total yards since 1992 and they are on a 7-1 ATS run when they simply gain 400 or more total yards. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 95-56 ATS since 1983. Play against any team with a poor rushing defense allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. Dallas defense is in full gear as well. Note that DALLAS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games since 1992. Phillips is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=130 rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992. Phillips is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in all games he has coached since 1992. Take the Cowboys.




Ryan is on a 10-4 ATS run with his 5* Monday Night FB releases dating back to last season. Here is another one of those powerful; 5* Monster plays backed by Ryan's winning research, a strong 25-year time tested system, and angles combining for an 83% ATS mark. Pay only when this 5* MONSTER wins ATS.







Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Ottawa – Ottawa is a bit tired having played 4 games already, but it is so early in the season that Fatigue will not be an issue at all. Ottawa, as I had said in pervious text, is on a mission to win the Stanley Cup and anything short of that would be a failure. New Jersey finds itself coming off a road blow out win at Florida 3-1 and this puts them into a poor role for this game. NEW JERSEY is 0-5 against the money line (-7.8 Units) off a road blowout win by 3 goals or more over the last 2 seasons. Take Ottawa.




Ai Simulator 1* graded play on the NYY – This is a pretty easy call to make given the pitching mismatch. This is only a 1* graded play due to the high line and the simple fact that Cleveland is an elite team. Still, risk/reward profiles form the AiS show that this is a solid 1* investment o make. Supporting this graded play is the fact that CLEVELAND is 4-11 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season. CLEVELAND is 24-40 (-19.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NYY are 11-2 and +7.5 units as a home favorite of -175 to -200 this season.

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Re: Monday Service Picks and Free Consensus Report:

NORTHCOAST

Monday Night Magic

2* Dallas -10.5

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