Thursday Service Plays

Thursday Service Plays

Ryan's 5* SEC Monster Play of the week - 67% ATS

Ryan has hit 67% ATS over the past 3 seasons with his 5* MONSTER plays and his two best conferences have been the Pac-10 and the SEC. Here is his SEC 5* MONSTER Play of the Week. This play is backed by Ryan's extensive research featuring an incredible system and an 8-1 ATS angle.

Guaranteed Pick: John Ryan

Game: Kentucky at South Carolina Oct 4 2007
Prediction: Kentucky

Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Kentucky – AiS shows an 82% probability that Kentucky will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Let's first look at one of the dominant factors in this game. The Kentucky rushing game will be the reason that Kentucky covers and may win the game as well. The projections call for them to rush for at least 100 yards in this game and note that Kentucky is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they rush for 100 to 150 yards over the last 3 seasons. Plus, Kentucky is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. South Carolina has a strong offense featuring Spurrier's pass happy schemes. Kentucky's ability to run the ball keeps the SC offense off the field and keeps the SC defense fresh. Kentucky is 5-0 and 4-0 ATS and they are coming off a big win against an inferior opponent in Florida Atlantic. Note that Kentucky is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after a win by 17 or more points since 1992. During HC Brook's tenure the Wildcats are 8-1 ATS after a win by 17 or more points. Supporting this DOG is a money line system that has gone 28-8 and has made 17.5 units since 2002. Play against any team after a win by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 37 points or more in 3 straight games. Take Kentucky

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UNDERDOG SPORTS

NCAAF Kentucky vs. South Carolina

Take Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky has not lost a game this year and are ranked 14th in offense. Take the Wildcats for the underdog free play of the week.

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DCI

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Southeastern Conference
SOUTH CAROLINA 30, Kentucky 29

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Tim Sullivan

SO. CAROLINA (-31/2) over Kentucky: The Wildcats may have the better team, but Steve Spurrier on a national stage at home with a small number is too good to pass up.

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Michael Cannon Thursday Plays

10 Dime –

SOUTH CAROLINA (Buy the ½ point if your line is -3 ½)

Lay the small number with South Carolina tonight when they host Kentucky.
I know Kentucky brings the best player into this game in Andre Woodson. The Wildcats quarterback is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate and is one of the nation’s most accurate passers.

But he’s not going against some run-of-the-mill secondary in South Carolina.
The Gamecocks have a veteran laden defense and sport the No. 1 pass defense in the country. The home crowd will add to that advantage by making it difficult for Woodson to call out his signals.

South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier absolutely owns Kentucky, going 14-0 SU in his career against them. The ‘Ol Ball Coach is 33-12-1 ATS playing an SEC opponent off a win and the Gamecocks have won seven in a row against Kentucky (5-2 ATS).
It also helps that South Carolina has already faced two of the SEC’s top teams in Lsu and Georgia, and covered the number in both games.

I’m just not convinced that Kentucky is worthy of its Top 10 ranking, as they haven’t faced the caliber of competition that South Carolina will bring tonight. Sure the Wildcats 40-34 victory over Louisville was impressive at the time, but that win was tempered after the Cardinals lost at home to Syracuse two weeks ago.

The coaching edge definitely goes to South Carolina in this one and it’s hard to go against Spurrier at home laying just a field goal.

Lay the points with South Carolina and remember to buy the ½ point if your line is -3 ½.

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Pointwise - Newsletter Play

KENTUCKY over South Carolina RATING: 4

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Dunkel Ratings

1-1 Last night
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 4

Game 305-306: Kentucky at South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 102.548; South Carolina 101.526
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 1; 55
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 3 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+3 1/2)

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THE GOLD SHEET

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 4

*Kentucky 27 - SOUTH CAROLINA 25--Although RS frosh QB Smelley gave South Carolina's "fun & gun" a lift in 38-21 win vs. Mississippi State, still prefer hot, confident 5-0 UK (best start since 1954!), ready, willing and able to end 7-game series losing streak. Cats sizzling Heisman hopeful sr. QB Woodson (67%, 16 TDs, 1 int.) owns more proven big-play weapons at WR (Burton & Lyons have combined 53 catches) than 'Cocks. And Brooks' opportunistic squad (+7 TO margin) less likely to make crucial error than Carolina (11 giveaways, -4 TO margin). Coming Cats now 9-1 vs. spread last 10. TV--ESPN

(06-S. Car. 24-KY. 17...S.21-17 S.39/190 K.27/62 K.18/32/1/289 S.15/23/1/193 S.0 K.0)

(06-Usc -4' 24-17 05-USC -12' 44-16 04-Usc -13 12-7...SR: South Carolina 11-6-1)

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Pointwise

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

KENTUCKY over South Carolina RATING: 4

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PICK: South Carolina
Your pick will be graded at: -3.5
EXPERT: David Malinsky
REASON FOR PICK: 4* SOUTH CAROLINA over KENTUCKY

We certainly tip our caps to what Rich Brooks has been able to do at Kentucky, turning around what had truly been a moribund program. But now the marketplace is giving them too much credit, and that gives us the ability to take advantage of the excellent matchups to the Gamecocks in this one.

First let’s address the market, and the best way to do so is to establish a historical perspective. This will be the third meeting between these programs since Steve Spurrier came to Columbia, with South Carolina winning 44-16 as -12.5 on this field two years ago, and then 24-17 as -4.5 at Lexington last October. We remember both games because we had the Gamecocks as 4* plays each time, and note that LY’s win was easier than the final score would suggest – Carolina led 10-0 at halftime, and 24-10 before a late back-door score was allowed, with the line of scrimmage being dominated to the tune of 190-62 in rushing yards. And of extreme importance was how the Gamecock defense shut down Andre Woodson & Co. on their own field.

Kentucky scored two TD’s in that loss, the first coming when the Wildcats were down 17-0 in the third quarter, and Brooks rolled the dice successfully on a fake punt after another drive had stalled. The other came when they were down 24-7 with less than three minutes remaining, getting set up by a 63-yard pass. It does not get any easier this time, especially in front of a rabid crowd at night, and facing a veteran South Carolina secondary that will have several players eventually playing on Sunday’s. The Gamecocks rate #2 in the nation in pass efficiency defense so far this season, second only to LSU, and through three SEC games they are allowing only 42.4 percent completions and an outstanding 4.5 yards per pass attempt, with more interceptions than TD passes allowed. There is so much quality depth that seven different players have started at least one game so far, and there is perhaps no better compliment than the one given to them by Carolina WR Kenny McKinley - ”I go versus them (in practice) and I’m like, ‘Man, no other team can be this strong.’”

If you take away the strength of Kentucky, which is Woodson and the passing game, this is still a team that is nothing special. The Wildcats had exciting rallies to beat Louisville and Arkansas, but in those games they were out-gained each time, with the defense allowing 467 yards to the Razorbacks and 495 to the Razorbacks. Even Kent State was able to pile up 463, with four turnovers keeping the Golden Flashes from getting more points on the board. This is an average team that has a couple of great skill players, and has gone +7 in turnover ratio so far. They are not good enough to beat this class of SEC opponent on the road.

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Rocketman comp
South Carolina -3.5

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Brian James
Free Pick for Thursday, October 4th:

Kentucky/S. Carolina UNDER 57.5 -107

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Ats Financial Package

Under 58...SC/KY............3 Units

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Brandon.lang

10 DIME

Kentucky

Kentucky/S.Carolina UNDER

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David Page

PREMIUM AND CONFIRMED

Thu, October 4th 2007 07:45:00 PM
NCF
South Carolina
Kentucky
Kentucky +4 (-102)

Thu, October 4th 2007 07:45:00 PM
NCF
South Carolina
Kentucky
Under 57.5 (-105)

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Rocky Atkinson

Kentucky @ South Carolina 7:45 PM EST
Play On: 1* South Carolina -3 1/2

My ole Gamecocks are doing what I thought they were going to do. Hopefully all of you read my article and got down on the Over 7 regular season wins as my futures play in CFB this year. Steve Spurrier is one of the greatest CFB Coaches ever in my opinion. He sucked in the NFL but I'm glad he came to South Carolina. They now face a #8 ranked undefeated Kentucky Wildcat team with an awesome quarterback. I feel like they will be some points scored in this one but Spurrier will find a way to win it. Kentucky is 3-11 ATS since 1992 as a road underdog of 3 1/2 to 7 points. Sure, Kentucky can put up some offensive numbers but let's look at South Carolina this year. South Carolina is scoring 34.7 ppg at home this year. South Carolina is allowing only 15.6 ppg overall this year and 12.7 ppg at home this season. South Carolina has already faced the #1 team in the nation in LSU and held their own against them for a majority of the game. South Carolina is 2-0 SU and ATS overall vs Kentucky last 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on South Carolina tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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Dr. CHAD

CFB Kentucky

CFB Kentucky OVER

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LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) POWER PLAY: KENTUCKY vs SOUTH CAROLINA


Play: POWER PLAY: SOUTH CAROLINA -3 ( ALWAYS BUY THE HOOK)

Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) POWER PLAY: SOUTH CAROLINA -3 (ALWAYS BUY THE HOOK). Dont be fooled by all the hype surrounding Kentucky. How have we won for you the last two nights going against the public? It was simply a matter of looking at the level of competition each side has faced and as we look closer, all these SEC leading statistics have been against teams that shouldn't be in their class or teams that have been struggling. The Kentucky Wildcats lead the SEC in scoring this season and are second in passing yards yet they accumulated those great numbers against FAU, which is a notch above a community college in S. Florida. They faced a struggling Louisville team who was cruising on last year's success on the perception they were any good this year. Lets add powerhouses like Kent state, and Eastern Kentucky that UK has gained this reputation as an offensive powerhouse against. If Kentucky gets one stamp of approval you could give it to them for the Arkansas win. Now on the other side of the coin we have South Carolina who has faced #1 LSU, Mississippi state and Georgia. With that on their plate, South Carolina Gamecocks leads the nation in pass defense which means trouble for Kentucky as the pass is Kentucky's primary weapon, South Carolina are second in the conference in yards allowed. Spurrier is 14-0 vs. Kentucky. QB Andre Woodson has never beaten South Carolina. SC will be starting freshmen quarterback Chris Smelley in place of fifth-year senior Blake Mitchell. Smelley did a good job stepping up with 279 yards and two touchdown passes against the Bulldogs’ 48th-ranked pass defense with a 38-21 win. Look for Kentucky to finally see a defense that will be up to the level of competition and we expect a comfortable ATS win. The line is in that gray area between the 3 and 4 so put up the extra 10% and buy the hook as an insurance policy and secure your wager for tonight.

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Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio

Game: Kentucky at South Carolina Oct 4 2007 7:45PM
Prediction: South Carolina

Reason: Play on South Carolina at 7:45 ET. Spurrier versus Brooks is an all-time coaching mismatch on the sidelines. Spurrier is much more than just an avowed "offensive genius." He knows and understands his team's strengths and weaknesses. Spurrier knows he does not have a QB or the playmakers at the WR positions (the Gamecocks really miss Sidney Rice!) for his Fun 'N Gun offense to work. So what has he done in '07? Spurrier is relying on two excellent RBs, Cory Boyd (330 YR / 4.9 ypc) and Mike Davis (321 YR / 5.2 ypc), to pound the ball. He's playing more of a field position game these days, hoping for longer drives which will 'eat' up the clock (long drives will help keep Kentucky QB Andre' Woodson off the field in this game). Woodson is a wonderful QB (16 TD passes and just one interception) but Spurrier has an outstanding defense. It ranks 26th in overall yards allowed (307.6), 16th in points allowed (15.6) and is SECOND in the passing efficiency rantings (just 46.2 % with only two TDPs and six INTs). Kudos go out to Kentucky which has been one heckuva team since losing 49-0 at LSU last year, going 10-1 SU and 9-1 ATS. The school's No. 8 ranking in the latest AP poll is its highest since 1997 but the Wildcats have lost seven straight to the Gamecocks and have never beaten a Spurrier-coached team (0-14!). That WON'T change here. South Carolina is my 20* SEC Game of the Month.

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