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Jim Kruger- over 60% in CFB in 2006 + 2007

7:45p Jim Kruger
Southern Mississippi
+11.0 (-110) / 3 units

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Re: Thursday Service Picks:

Mike Rose


Southern Mississippi @ Boise St u49.5 (-110)
Thu Sep 27 '07 7:45p
Once again, we find ourselves in Boise, Idaho for a Thursday night ESPN primetime affair, as HC Jeff Bowers Golden Eagles of S. Mississippi will make the long treck out West to lock horns with the Broncos of Boise State on the “Smurf Turf” in what looks to be a very ugly affair on paper. Boise has thrived immensely in these spots in the past, but this is a much different Broncos bunch and they’re going up against a Golden Eagles club that’s made a habit of going into other peoples houses and playing some exceptional ball.

Neither of these teams has lit the scoreboard up this year. Boise has seen its offense take a few steps backwards this season, but that’s understandable considering the offensive weapons they lost from last years unit that put up close to 40 PPG. This year’s unit, led by QB Taylor Tharp and RB Ian Johnson has gotten off to a very slow start. Throwing away the 56-point outburst vs. Weber State in Week 1, the Broncos have combined to score 34 points in their last two games vs. Washington and Wyoming.

Southern Miss can hang its hat on the 35-points they notched against Tenn-Martin in Week 1, but they were only able to manage 19 against what’s turned out to be a very porous Tennessee defense and come into this match-up averaging 24 PPG vs. FBS competition. The game plan is quite simple for the Golden Eagles. Run the ball down their opponent’s throats, play solid on special teams, and rely on the defense to come up with the turnover so their offense can milk more time off the clock. This mindset will allow them to stay in the game here against a much lesser Boise team, but its up to the players not to get rattled by their surroundings and follow through. I like the 1-2 punch of QB Young and RB Fletcher, and believe they will be able to control the tempo of this game with their legs.

However, they have their work cut out for them as the Broncos boast the nations 14th ranked run “D” only surrendering 81 YPG, and the nations 11th ranked scoring defense (15 PPG). With the sledding ultimately going to be tough for both teams, I find value in backing the ‘Under’ in this match-up.



San Diego Padres (155)
Thu Sep 27 '07 8:05p
The Brewers really let one get away last night by losing to the Cardinals in the finale of their 3-game set. They lost the opportunity of closing the gap on the 1st place Chicago Cubs after they laid an egg in Miami, and lost their 9th straight to the Marlins. They still sit two games in back of the Cubs, but their rivals magic number was reduced to three even though they lost.

Hoping to pick up a solid win will be Yovani Gallardo whose been one of the bright spots in the Brewers rotation this season. He comes into this game 9-4 SU, and the Brew Crew has won nine of his 16 starts this season. That number includes a solid 5-2 SU mark in his Miller park starts. Currently, he boasts a 3.59 ERA and has only given up 98 hits in almost 106 innings of work.

Looking to keep the Padres momentum pushing forward will be Jack Cassel who will be making just his fourth start of the season. After pounding the Giants into submission last night, the Padres find themselves just a half game out in the NL West and up half a game over the Rockies and Phillies for the Wild Card.

With so much on the line here for both clubs, I almost find it impossible for either of these teams to be such heavy chalks over one another. The value is clearly with the visitors here since neither club is trotting an experienced vet to the mound, and they boast the much better overall bullpen. San Diego has been a much better hitting team on the road this season, and the Brewers bullpen has been letting them down on a consistent basis over the last couple months. Back the visitors in the first game of this series, and enjoy the handsome return once this ticket cashes!!!

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Vernon Croy


1 Unit, Take Tampa Bay ML +117

Tampa has the superior pitcher on the mound tonight and Scott Kazmir (13-9 ERA 3.54) has pitched solid against the Yankees this season with an ERA of just 3.06 over 17.2 innings. Kazmir has also pitched solid over his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 1.00 over 18 innings pitched. Kazmir's opponents are hitting just .227 against him since the All-Star break and I look for him to have another strong outing tonight. Phil Hughes gets the start for the Yankees and he has struggled against the Devil Rays this season with an ERA of 8.31 over just 4.1 innings. We are getting good value here tonight with Tampa Bay. Have a great Thursday, Vernon Croy

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Cappers Access

(Thur) CFB S. Miss
(Thur) CFB Arkansas St

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Jimmy Boyd of Locksmith Sports
MLB

1 Unit on Colorado -118 (action)

The Dodgers are just 8-25 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Colorado is 17-7 against the money line in September games this season and 7-0 against the money line off 4 straight wins against division rivals this season. The Rocks are 10-3 against the money line after 4 or more consecutive wins this season period. Take the red hot Rockies who have won 10 in a row!

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C-Star Sports Picks

1000 Units CFB Thursday Night Game Of The Month! Arkansas State/Memphis Over the total Memphis as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points 4-1 O/U in this past 3 years. Memphis against Sun Belt conference opponents 1-0 O/U in this spot past 3 years. Memphis when playing on a Thursday 1-0 O/U in this spot since 1992. Memphis as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points 3-1 O/U SINCE 1992. ARKANSAS ST against Conference USA opponents 4-0 O/U in this spot since 1992. When Memphis team played as Road team as a Underdog - Last 5 years - Coming off a Loss over Conference USA opponent 9-4 O/U in this spot. When Memphis team played as a Road team - During the month of September - Coming off a Loss over Conference USA opponent 5-1 O/U in this spot. When Arkansas State team played as a Home team - After a non conference game - Coming off a Loss over Southeastern loss opponent - Coming off a Road loss 3-0 O/U in this spot. When Memphis team played as Road team as a Underdog - During the month of September - Last 3 years 3-0 O/U in this spot.

50 Units Arkansas State Minus the points Over Memphis When Arkansas State team played as a Home team - After a non division game - Vs Non Conference Opponent 10-4 ATS in this spot. When Memphis team played as a Road team - During the month of September - During Week 4 to 8 2-13 ATS in this spot. When Arkansas State team played as a Home team - Vs Non Division Opponent - After a non division game - Coming off a lost on grass 9-2 ATS in this spot.

1000 Units CFB Thursday night ESPN Game Of The Year! Boise State Minus the points Over Southern Miss When Southern Mississippi team played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs Non Conference Opponent - Coming off a win on grass 0-11 ATS in this spot. When Boise State team played as Home team as a Favorite - Playing on turf surface - Coming off a win on turf 16-3 ATS in this spot. When Boise State team played as Home team as a Favorite - Playing on turf surface - Scored 24 points or more FOR in their last game 19-1 SU in this spot. Boise State 44-2 SU and 33-13 ATS in lined home games, including a sweet 11-0 pointspread streak when favored by 12 or less points.


50 Units Atlanta -135 Over Philadelphia
50 Units NY Mets Run Line -1.5 -120 Over Washington
50 Units Tampa Bay +120 Over NY Yankees

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COMPUTER PLAYS

BEST BET
7:05 p.m. Boston Red Sox - 240 * * *

7:05 p.m. Toronto Blue Jays + 110
10:05 p.m. Cleveland Indians - 130
10:10p.m. Colorado Rockies - 120

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MR A

Thursday, September 27th, 2007, 7:05 p.m. est.

Minnesota Twins (77-81) at Boston Red Sox (94-64)
(R) Boof Bonser (7-12) vs. (R) Josh Beckett (20-6)


R) Josh Beckett


Minnesota sends Boof Bonser (7-12, 5.09), to the hill. The right-hander is 2-10 with a 5.76 ERA in his last 17 games. Bonser allowed two runs over seven innings in an 8-2 win in his only career start against Boston in 2006.


Boston counters with Josh Beckett (20-6, 3.14 ERA). The right-hander is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last four starts and 9-4 with a 3.98 ERA at Fenway Park. Beckett will make his first appearance against the Twins this season.


Take the Red Sox tonight at Fenway Park with Josh Beckett on the hill. Beckett has pitched outstanding this season, while Twins' Boof Bonser has been awful. Minnesota is 2-7 in Bonser's last 9 starts, 2-8 in his last 10 on the road


Oddsmakers:
Boston as a -245 home favorite with the total listed at 9 'over'.

Boston Red Sox

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Re: Thursday Service Picks:

Jimmy Broadway
Thursday

300 Stars Southern Miss
300 Stars Yankees
300 Stars Padres

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CHRIS JORDAN

Thursday 3-0 sweep ...

100♦ RED SOX RUN LINE (LIST Beckett) - Analysis by 4 p.m. eastern

100♦ BOISE STATE -

100♦ BREWERS RUN LINE -

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Dave Cokins Service

3* Boise State

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Re: Thursday Service Picks:

Marc Lawrence

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, September 27th, 7:05 P.M. EST EST

Braves right hander John Smoltz takes on the Phillies in the finale of this three-games series knowing he is 12-5 in his L17 team starts in September and also 9-3 in his L12 team starts on Thursdays. He's also in commanding KW form with 3 walks and 31 strikeouts in his L5 road starts. Look for more of the same here this evening. Good Luck - Marc Lawrence

Play on: Atlanta

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NORTHCOAST

Marquee Play

So.Miss +10.5

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Thursday, September 27 Doctor BOB
BOISE STATE (-10 ½) 31 Southern Miss 16
Boise State is 20-4 ATS at home in their history when not favored by 21 points or more and I see no reason to buck that trend even if it is just 1-3 ATS recently. Boise is not the explosive team they’ve been in recent years, as new quarterback Taylor Tharp has been just average so far (6.2 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and the rushing attack has also been mediocre as teams are able to stack the line to stop RB Ian Johnson with less fear of being beaten up top. Southern Miss is just average defensively so the Broncos should move the ball at a decent rate. The Broncos’ good defense (3.9 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team), meanwhile, should limit a sub-par Southern Miss attack that has averaged 5.6 yppl with starting quarterback Jeremy Young in the game against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack. My math model favors Boise State by 15 ½ points and I’ll favor Boise to add to their impressive home spread mark.

ARKANSAS STATE (-5) 35 Memphis 26
I had a Best Bet last season on Arkansas State when they visited Memphis as a 10 point underdog and came away with a 26-23 win and it still appears as if the Tigers are overrated (or Arkansas State is underrated). Arkansas State has one of the best running back in the nation in Reggie Arnold, who ran for over 100 yards at 5.1 ypr last season and has averaged 118 yards per game 7.7 ypr this season, including 7.3 ypr against Texas and Tennessee. Memphis just gave up 321 yards at 5.5 yards per rushing play to Central Florida last week, so I doubt that they’ll be able to stop Arnold in this game. Memphis is actually not so bad for the season against the run but the Tigers have been horrible defending the pass (7.1 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppp against an average defensive team) and Indians’ quarterback Corey Leonard is good enough to take advantage. The Memphis offense and the Arkansas State defense are equally below average, so the only mismatch in this game is the solid Arkansas State offense going up against a bad Memphis defense. My math model doesn’t officially apply to this game because both teams have played just 3 games (I need 4 games each for an official math model play) but the math using this year’s games only favors Arkansas State by 15 ½ points. My ratings favor Arkansas State by 9 points and I’ll consider Arkansas State a Strong Opinion at -4 or less.

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Kiki Sports ()

2 units Boise State
1 units Arkansas State

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