Sunday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

Sunday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

Best Bets
GOW NEW ENGLAND

Bettor's Edge
3 Green Bay
3 Seattle
3 New England

Big Money
Minnesota

Captain
15 Denver
10 Houston
10 Cincinnati
10 Cincinnati Under
10 Minnesota Over

Cobra
2 New Orleans
1 Miami
1 Arizona

Compuman
Denver
San Diego
San Francisco
Colts
Pittsburgh

Cowtown
2 Dallas
1 Carolina
1 Chicago

Dolphin
3 Chicago
3 Denver
3 New England

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Re: Sunday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

LENNY DEL GENIO
25* Division GOY Minnesota Vikings

HUDDLE UP SPORTS
500,000* Lock Carolina -6

Best Bets:
Cincinnati -6'
New Orleans -3'
Green Bay +1'
Green Bay/NY Giants over 37

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Re: Sunday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

DR. BOB

2-Star UNDER
**UNDER - DENVER (-9.5) 19 Oakland 12

Strong Opinion
San Francisco 23 ST. LOUIS (-3.0) 21

Strong Opinion
ARIZONA 23 Seattle (-3.0) 21

Strong Opinion
Kansas City 14 CHICAGO (-12.0) 20

Strong Opinion
NY Jets 13 BALTIMORE (-10.0) 19

Strong Opinion
UNDER - JACKSONVILLE (-10.0) 21 Atlanta 7

Strong Opinion
UNDER - Dallas (-3.5) 19 MIAMI 16

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Re: Sunday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

Bill Lee
San Ffransico
Chicago
Arizona

Gold Sheet
1½* San Francisco
1* Cincinnati
1* Tennessee
1* Chicago

Players Choice
Carolina

Player's Group
Pittsburgh

Rocky Mountain
3 Carolina

Rogers
Kansas City

SCSC
2 Kansas City
1 Atlanta
1 Denver
1 New England
1 New England Over

Ed Slick
Houston
Tampa Bay
Chicago
New England

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Insider Sports Report
4* New Orleans
4* Cincinnati
3* Dallas
3* Minnesota OVER

Elite Sports Picks
Chicago

Discount Sports Picks
10* San Diego OVER
5* Seattle

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Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio

Game: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions Sep 16 2007 4:05PM
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings
Reason: Play on the Vikings at 4:05 ET. Jon Kitna may have predicted a 10-win season but lets' not call him a seer after Detroit opened the '07 season with a 36-21 win at Oakland. The Lions jumped out to a 17-0 lead but actually trailed 21-20 in the 4th, before scoring the game's final 16 points. Kitna threw three TDs and passed for 289 yards but he's always had trouble in the red zone. With RB Kevin Jones out, Tatum Bell had 87 YR but here he'll face the team which led the NFL in rushing D last year (Minnesota), allowing 61.6 ypg. The Vikings did a nice job stopping Atlanta's running game in Week 1, holding the Falcons to 96 yards (3.4 ypc). The Minnesota D also returned two interceptions for TDs and let's remember that Kitna threw 22 INTs in '06 and two last week. The Vikings are far from a complete team, as QB Tarvaris Jackson is surely a "work in progress" but the Vikings have to be thrilled with their No. 1 pick, RB Adrian Peterson. A.P. ran for 103 yards in his first career game plus caught a short pass and turned it into a 60-yard TD. The Vikings shouldn't have too much trouble with the Detroit D, which ranked 28th in ypg in '06 and 30th in points allowed. Detroit was favored three times in its 3-13 season last year and not only failed to cover anyone of those games but lost all three SU, as well. One of those losses as a favorite was a 30-20 Week 14 at home to the Vikings (30-20), Detroit's 10th straight loss to Minnesota! The Vikings have beaten the Lions in 14 of the last 15 meetings. So what's different here? Nothing! Minnesota is my NFC 25* North GOY.

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Guaranteed Pick: Jimmy The Moose

Game: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sep 16 2007 1:00PM
Prediction: New Orleans Saints
Reason: The Saints offense is too good to repeat their week 1 performance. New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in week 2. In their last 8 games as a road favorite the Saints are 6-2 ATS. New Orleans has is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games overall. TB is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a dog. In their last 5 games played in September the Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS. The Bucs are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games. In their last 9 games vs. NFC opponents TB is 1-7-1 ATS. New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 visits to Tampa. Expect a big game from the Saints and their first win of the season. Play on the Saints -.

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Goodfella Sports

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL
ATLANTA/JACKSONVILLE UNDER 34.5 (-105) 1PM
TENNESSEE +7 OVER INDY (1PM)
BUFFALO/PITT UNDER 37.5 (+100) 1PM
CAROLINA -6.5 (-105) over HOUSTON (1PM)
MIAMI +3.5 (-102) OVER DALLAS (4PM)

MLB
FLORIDA/CAROLINA OVER 11-110 (3PM)

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EZ Winners

1 STAR: (907) PITTSBURGH (-$104) over Houston
(Listing Maholm only)
(Risking $104 to win $100)


YESTERDAY'S RECAP - We were 1-1 on Saturday. A $100 player won $13. We made a small profit, splitting our two dogs.
BOSTON (+$113) WON +$113
PITTSBURGH (+$135) LOST -$100

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Larry Ness

Larry Ness' 20* Division GOY (perfect 5-0 start with NFL 20* plays in '07!)
My 20* play is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. Let's not overreact to the Saints' opening season loss at Indy. Last time I checked, the Colts were a pretty good team. The Saints have had a few extra days to get "their act together" and in the Bucs, they'll meet the perfect opponent (patsy?). Tampa Bay managed just two FGs in losing at Seattle last Sunday and Cadillac Williams was forced out after injuring his ribs. He says he'll play but so what? He was nowhere near the player LY that he was in his rookie season, topping 100 yards just twice, while gaining a total of only 101 yards in his last three games of '06 (2.4 YPC). Tampa Bay's OL is no bargain and unlike last year, when he stepped in to lead a playoff-ready team like the Eagles, 37-year-old QB Jeff Garcia now leads a team "hardly ready for prime time!" The Saints' D allowed 452 yards to the Colts (288 passing) but will have no such problems with Tampa's offense (NFC-low 211 points scored in '06). While Tampa can still play some D (far from great these days, as LY's 22.1 PPG attests), expect the Saints to bounce back from their Week 1 disaster. New Orleans led the NFL in total offense LY but did not score a single offensive TD vs the Colts. A team known for its "big plays," had just one play for more than 13 yards. Bress was terrible (28-41 for 192 YP with two INTs) , while Bush (12-38) and Deuce (10-38), did nothing! Tampa went 0-6 in its division last year, with the Saints winning 31-14 here in Tampa. Brees had 314 YP in that game and I look for a "return to form" for New Orleans in this game, against a very beatable foe. NFC South GOY 20* NO Saints.

Good Luck...Larry

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Rob Ferringo

NFL SELECTIONS
7-Unit Play. Take #215 New Orleans (-3.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Month. I do endorse this play up to -4.0. It is pretty stable at -3.5 in Vegas but is -3.0 at a majority of the top nine online sportsbooks and that is our basis. Believe me, this will be a double-digit win so an extra half-point shouldn't factor in.

Since 1997, teams that started the year with two straight road games are 20-13 ATS (60.6) in Week 2. Favorites in that role (as in, favored in the second game) are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent). Those road teams are 13-6 ATS off a loss in Week 1, and 5-1 when instilled as a favorite after that loss. New Orleans is devalued after that undressing on the Thursday night opener, but they were actually winning that game early and were tied, with the ball, to start the second half. Their talent puts them in the top one-third of teams in this league while Tampa is still a bottom-third club. The Tampa offense can’t put the type of pressure on a team that the Colts can and I think that the Saints are just itching to show that their defense is actually better this season than last. Also, if Brian Kelly doesn’t play the Bucs are short one of their best corners. That’s not a place you want to be when Drew Brees comes to town. Sean Payton is 7-3 ATS on the road and New Orleans has covered four of five against the Bucs. Finally, the moneyline on this game is anywhere from 25 to 50 cents heavy, and that's a strong indicator.

4-Unit Play. Take #221 Seattle (-2.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
This line is baffling. Until the Cardinals actually win some games they don’t deserve the respect that they get from the public, who is in love with them as a perpetual “sleeper team”. They aren’t. The Cardinals are 6-18 ATS (25 percent) in September home games and 12-19 ATS in September divisional games. They are 0-4 ATS since 2003 in divisional home games in September. The Cardinals are 3-16 straight up and 2-10 ATS in home openers, they are coming off a short week, and they are facing a team with superior talent. Arizona will start two rookie offensive linemen against a veteran Seattle front seven. I simply don’t see how they will be able to withstand the pressure, and I don’t see them stopping an offense that is very familiar with their personnel.

4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 37.0 Buffalo at Pittsburgh (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Over the past two years the Steelers are an astounding 13-1-2 against the total when playing at home. Buffalo’s defense is decimated – I mean completely decimated – and will be without as many as five starters. The Steelers have been throwing the ball more with Bruce Arians and I see them completely devastating the Bills. Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS over the past five years with a line between 36.0 and 38.0. Further, the ‘over’ is 36-15-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 53 home games, 46-22-2 with them as a favorite, and 10-1-1 when they allow less than 15 points in the previous game. Buy onto 37 if you have to because it’s such a key number, but if the Bills can chip in 9-13 points this one won’t be in doubt at all.

4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 34.5 Kansas City at Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: I endorse this play at 35.0 because that merely brings the push into play.

Chicago went 9-1 against the number last year at home and is 9-3 in Soldier Field when the total is between 33.5 and 35.5. The ‘over’ is 10-2 in Chicago’s last 12 home games, 16-6-1 in their last 23 overall, and 14-3-1 as a favorite. The Bears lost two starters on defense last week and the Chiefs will be without two of their better defenders (Jared Allen and Patrick Surtain). These two teams combined for six points last week so there’s a naturally overreaction toward the ‘under’. But there’s a system at work here that’s hit at nearly 73 percent ‘over’ for the past six years. Chicago’s first four home games last year saw an average of 45.5 combined points and four of the Bears’ last five home openers have gone ‘over’. Rex Grossman is notorious for this – answering critics with a 250-yard, 4 TD eruption when everyone is calling for his head.

3-Unit Play. Take #206 Tennessee (+7.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Two very good systems at work here. First, play on a home dog that won its last game outright vs. an opponent who was playing at home. This system hit at roughly 61 percent over the past 15 years. Next, play on a division home dog that won straight up on as an away dog the previous week. This system has hit at 66 percent over the past 15 years. I couldn’t have been more impressed with how physical Tennessee was last week and I think they can make the Colts uncomfortable with their style. Also, road teams favored by 7.5 or more were 38-63 ATS (37.6 percent) between 1997 and 2006.

2-Unit Play. Take #207 Houston (+7) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
If the Panthers are an automatic play as an underdog (20-3-1 ATS) then they are also an automatic play against as a favorite. The Jake Delhomme-John Fox combo is 9-17-1 ATS as a home favorite, 3-7 ATS at home, and 3-12 ATS as a favorite between 4.0 and 7.0. Remember, the Panthers were on the verge of losing in St. Louis before two Steven Jackson fumbles handed them 14 points. I don’t see Carolina running the ball they way they did against an awful Rams defense, and this is play blends two basic tenets that have been very successful recently – playing the underdogs (58 percent ATS in 2006) and playing the AFC vs. the NFC.

2-Unit Play. Take #232 Philadelphia (-6.5) over Washington (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 16)
Andy Reid is 10-1 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite and Donovan McNabb is 16-7 ATS following a loss. The Eagles are 17-10 ATS playing at home as a favorite after a loss and - the coup de grace - they are 11-3 ATS as home chalk on Monday Night Football. Is this line about 1-3 points to much? Yes. But you can't argue with results. Washington is 3-7 ATS on MNF and have a young quarterback making his first road start. In Philly. The 'Skins lost Jon Jansen and I think their offensive line will suffer, especially against the blitz-happy Eagles. Finally, Washington is 10-5 ATS when scoring 21 or more points and 12-22 ATS when they don't. I don't see it happening for them this week.

BONUS SELECTION
3-Unit Play. TEASER: Take Chicago (-1.5), Jacksonville (-0.5), and Pittsburgh (-0.5).
Note: This is a 3-team sweetheart teaser which just about all online books offer. However, since all customers that use "local guys" may not be able to play this game it's simply a bonus play. I initially liked all three teams to cover their normal lines, and favorites of 8.0 or higher in Week 2 went 5-1 last year. However, over the past 10 years faves of -8.0 or higher this early in the year are just 13-18 ATS (41.9 percent) and if you throw out last year they were just 8-17 ATS (32 percent). For this bet to lose, one of these three teams would have to lose outright, basically, and I simply do not see that happening. I see Chicago 34-10, Jacksonville 24-13, and Pittsburgh 38-9. It's 10-cent juice on this bet and I like it as an online bonus for those of you that like the action.

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Re: Sunday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

MIKE ROSE

Indianapolis Colts -7.0 (-105)
Sun Sep 16 '07 1:00p
Different year, same number. The Colts shockingly lost by a 20-17 count in this venue last season, as the Titans came back from a 14-point deficit to hand Indy one of its four losses on the season. Tennessee gave this team fits last year as the Colts went 0-2 ATS, and they were one of only two teams to give Peyton and company a major run for their money in the RCA Dome.
So, why then are the Colts seven-point favorites once again in this spot considering Tennessee gave them so much trouble a season ago? I’ll tell you why!!! It’s because Tennessee lost a number of impact players from a year ago, and the Colts won’t overlook them and take them lightly this time around. Indy figured they could just show up a year ago and cruise to a victory, but that just wasn’t the case. Tennessee showed they weren’t intimidated by them whatsoever in their first match-up, and the Colts almost paid for it dearly. When they met up again, the Titans were playing their best football of the season and pulled off the stunning victory.
I was amazed at how well the Colts dissected the Saints defense in the second half of their game last week. New Orleans has a better defense than the Titans, and Peyton made them look like absolute garbage. Sure, the Colts attack isn’t as lethal outdoors on a grass field, but this unit is so in rhythm with one another that nobody can stop them now. Especially the Titans!!!
Tennessee grinded out a win vs. the Jaguars last week, and QB Vince Young did a fine job managing the game. However, I feel the Jags are headed south after peaking the last couple seasons, and they by no means have the offense that strikes fear into anyone. Tennessee will have to do a better job in the passing game this week to have any shot of winning this game let alone covering the number. Indy simply shut down the Saints solid 1-2 punch in their backfield, and it looks as if the run “D” that showed up in the post-season last year isn’t an aberration. VY will have to beat them through the air, and I just don’t see it happening.
Peyton and the Colts have feasted upon this Tennessee team for years (7-1 SU / 6-2 ATS), and I’m expecting more of the same this afternoon. The Titans have covered 8 of their L/9 overall, but I just don’t think their ready to handle the game Indy will bring with them to Nashville. Lay the tuddy as the Colts pick up the road win and cover.




Chicago Bears -12.0 (-110)
Sun Sep 16 '07 4:15p
The 2007 season didn’t start out too well for either of these teams. Kansas City went into Houston and got steamrolled allowing the Texans to pick up an opening day win for the first time since 2003. The Bears locked horns with a very good San Diego club and dominated for a half, but a couple injuries cropped up in the second half and LT and company were able to pull away and grab the 14-3 victory.
To make matters worse for both of these clubs, neither was able to find the endzone in their Week 1 contests. The Chiefs managed just three points against Houston, while the Bears suffered the same fate against a stout Charger defense. Turnovers were mainly the key as both clubs combined for eight of them, and that’s just not going to get it done in the National Football league.
Oddsmakers expect the Bears to bounce back nicely this week as they’ve installed them as 13-point favorites with a ‘total’ of 35. Obviously, they’re expecting the Bears to put forth another dominating effort at Soldier Field where they beat opponents by a combined 229-131 in their Super Bowl year a season ago.
The city of Chicago is up in arms about last week’s performance out west, and they’re expecting nothing less than an impressive home debut from the Bears this week. With KC proving to be an offensive sieve thus far, and the fact that the Bears defense is amongst the best in the league, it’s highly conceivable that this one turns into another laugher that the city of Chicago got to see a number of times last season.
With all the smack talk coming out of San Diego this week targeting a number of Bears key offensive players, look for the home team to come out very determined offensively and put this game away early. KC once had one of the better offensive units in the entire league, but much has changed over the years, and its numbers have slowly eroded over that time. Look for the Bears “D” to force a number of KC TO’s, and for them to limit the effectiveness of RB Johnson.
One of these teams will find the endzone a number of times this afternoon, and they’ll be wearing blue and orange. The Chiefs will play the role of sacrificial lamb as the Bears take their frustrations out on them and pick up their first SU win and cover of the season.




Washington Redskins +7.0 (-115)
Mon Sep 17 '07 8:30p
This weeks Monday night match-up pits a couple of NFC East representatives who don’t like one another very much. Washington picked up a hard fought victory in OT last week at home over Miami, while the Eagles fumbled away their game in Lambeau Field against the GB Packers.
After sweeping the season series back in 2005, the Eagles returned the favor last season by beating the Skins in Washington 21-19 and at home by a 27-3 final count. Except for their success in 2005, the Redskins haven’t had much to boast about after playing the Eagles. Philly has dominated them throughout the L/5 years, but Washington will put forth a good showing tonight and let the rest of the conference know they will be a major player this season.
Washington was a team just killed with injuries a season ago. They hampered them in every facet of the game, and that’s the main reason their season win total dropped dramatically from 2005. Things look to be much different this time around though as the defense has looked much quicker, and the offense much more efficient. They churned out 400 yards of offense against a very good Miami defense last week, and only limited them to 273 total yards of offense on the other side of the ball. K Shaun Suisham also nailed all three of his FG attempts including the game winner in OT.
Washington HC Joe Gibbs’ formula for success in this league might be a bit outdated, but when you can hold onto the ball longer than your opponent and out gain them offensively, a win is most likely to follow provided you don’t turn the ball over. This is the type of attack we’ll see from the Skins all season long, as I believe they own a very underrated defense that they’ll be able to rely on more now that its healthy. Many only remember their poor play from a year ago when injuries crippled them, but keep in mind; they led the league in total defense in 2005 and won a game in the playoffs as well.
I respect Philly HC Andy Reid immensely since he’s a proven winner, but this is an awful lot of chalk for his club to lay in a crucial divisional game to kick-off the season. Grab the points with Washington as they keep this one a lot closer than the experts think.

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DOCTOR BOB



2-Star UNDER
**UNDER - DENVER (-9.5) 19 Oakland 12
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Oakland played pretty well offensively last week against a bad Lions’ defense, but the Raiders will have a tougher time against a Denver defense with two great cornerbacks. Daunte Culpepper takes over for an injured Josh McCown, but I rated those two quarterbacks the same heading into the season. Denver’s offense moved the ball well last week in Buffalo while the Raiders’ defense was abused by the Lions. Those results may reverse this week as the Broncos have averaged 5.3 yards per play or less in 5 of Jay Cutler’s 6 career starts and Oakland is still a good defensive team regardless of what happened last week. In fact, Oakland’s bad defensive effort in week 1 sets them up in a solid 102-50-5 UNDER situation this week and the Raiders have still gone Under in 11 of their last 13 games. My ratings predict a total of 38 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll go UNDER 38 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet. I’ll also lean with Oakland plus the points, as my ratings favor Denver by just 7 ½ points and the Broncos are only 5-21 ATS under coach Shanahan when favored by more than 5 points in the regular season following a victory.

Strong Opinion
San Francisco 23 ST. LOUIS (-3.0) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
The 49ers didn’t play well offensively last week, but their new defense looks very good. San Francisco held a decent Arizona attack to just 3.9 yards per play and only 3.4 yards per pass play as All-Pro cornerbacks Nate Clements and Walt Harris shut down the Cardinals receiving tandem while rookie LB Patrick Willis logged 11 tackles in his debut. San Francisco rebuilt their defense in the off-season and it looks like a better than average unit. The Rams offense is in trouble without big LT Orlando Pace protecting Marc Bulger and Pace appears to be out for the season after getting hurt last week. Pace missed some time last season and Rams’ quarterback Marc Bulger went from averaging 6.9 yards per pass play in 8 games with Pace protecting his back to just 5.6 yppp in the final 8 games of the season without Pace. Bulger averaged just 3.8 yppp last week and he’ll have a tough time finding open receivers this week against one of the best sets of corners in the league. The Rams’ defense was horrible last week against both the run (4.9 ypr) and the pass (7.4 yppp), so expect the 49ers to look much better offensively this week. My ratings favor St. Louis by just 1 point and the Rams are just 6-15-1 ATS the last 3 seasons as a favorite of 3 points or more, including 1-4-1 ATS last season in coach Linehan’s first year. San Francisco applies to a solid 52-20-1 statistical match- up indicator that is 10-1 ATS in week 2. I’ll consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.

Strong Opinion
ARIZONA 23 Seattle (-3.0) 21
01:05 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Arizona had a tough time throwing the ball against the 49ers but their defense looked very good and the offensive is likely to bounce back with a better effort. Seattle looked better than I expected against the Bucs, but my ratings only favor the Seahawks by 2 points in this game. Arizona applies to a solid 187-106-10 ATS statistical indicator and that is certainly enough to get me favoring the upset. I’ll consider Arizona a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d make Arizona a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points or more (-115 odds or better).

Strong Opinion
Kansas City 14 CHICAGO (-12.0) 20
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Chicago is just 1-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 10 points under coach Lovie Smith and the Bears apply to a negative 32-72-3 ATS game 2 situation. Kansas City, meanwhile, applies to a solid 69-23-1 ATS situation. My ratings favor Chicago by 12 points, so the line is fair, but I’m going to resist making the Chiefs a Best Bet since the Bears are a perfect 5-0 ATS the week following a loss the last 2 seasons. That team trend is not nearly enough to cancel out the general situations so I’ll consider Kansas City a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more and I’d take KC in a 2-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more.

Strong Opinion
NY Jets 13 BALTIMORE (-10.0) 19
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Both teams will likely be without their starting quarterbacks, as Baltimore’s Steve McNair is expected to miss with groin injury while the Jets’ Chad Pennington is doubtful with an ankle sprain. Baltimore has the more experienced backup in Kyle Boller and Boller looked very good off the bench last season (9.8 yards per pass play on 58 pass plays) and was improving as starter before McNair replaced him last season. Kellen Clemens will get the start for the Jets if Pennington doesn’t play and Clemens has had no success in very limited action in his career. However, Clemens looked good in the preseason and many think he could be an improvement over Pennington (I’ll reserve judgment). New York applies to a very strong 63-10 ATS bounce back situation and the line appears to be fair (my ratings favor Baltimore by 10 ½ points). The Ravens, meanwhile, qualify in a negative 32-72-3 ATS game 2 situation but I’m not going to make the Jets a Best Bet since Baltimore is 33-14-2 ATS as a home favorite under Brian Billick, including 19-4-1 ATS hosting non-division teams. The team trend is not as strong as the general situations favoring Baltimore so I will consider New York a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.

Strong Opinion
UNDER - JACKSONVILLE (-10.0) 21 Atlanta 7
10:00 AM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
The Falcons managed just 4.0 yards per play and 3 points in their first regular season game with Michael Vick and today they face a Jaguars’ team that will be fired up defensively after allowing 284 rushing yards to the Titans last week. Jacksonville is traditionally one of the best teams in the league at defending the run and their defense allowed just 13 points despite the uncharacteristically poor run defense. Teams that score 7 points or less in their opener are not good bets in game 2, especially when facing teams that allowed 13 points or less in week 1 (6-21 ATS). My ratings favor Jacksonville by 13 points with a total of 36 points. I mention the projected points based on my ratings because this game applies to a 102-50-5 ATS early season UNDER angle. The total is only 34 ½ points, so some of the value of that angle is lost due to negative line value. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 34 points or higher.

Strong Opinion
UNDER - Dallas (-3.5) 19 MIAMI 16
01:05 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Cowboys coach Wade Wilson can’t be too excited about how his defense performed in last week’s 45-35 win over the Giants, so I expect a better effort from that unit this week. Miami always has a solid defense and they tend to play their best at home. In fact, Miami is 57-34 UNDER at home since 1996, including 6-2 UNDER last season and 24-8 UNDER when the total is 40 points or higher. This game also applies to a solid 102-50-5 UNDER angle. Unfortunately my math projects a total of 42 points (and favors Dallas by 3 points) so I’ll resist playing the UNDER as a Best Bet at the current line of 40 ½ points. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 40 points or higher and I’d make the UNDER a 2-Star Best Bet at 42 points or higher.

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Re: Sunday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

ultra spts

4 ny jets
3 sf 49ers
3 tb buccaneers

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ace-ace / alan eastman

22 sf u 44
21 cinc -7
8 no -3'
6 hou +6'
5 cinc u 41'
4 gb u 38
2 kc +22/kc u 44'/hou +16' (10 pt tease)

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kodiak

5 cinc -7 -115
5 det -3 -115
5 dall -3' -115
5 giants o 38 -110
5 sd o 46 -110
5 no -3 -135

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Re: Sunday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

Gold Sheet Key Releases:

Houston
Chicago
Pitt/Buff Over

THE GOLD SHEET

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 16

OVER THE TOTAL PITTSBURGH 30 - Buffalo 17--Pittsburgh has been a high-pay "over" team at Heinz (14-1-1 last 16!), thanks partly to LY's Ben Roethlisberger interceptions (an NFL-leading 23 during injury-plagued season). He has focused on avoiding them (none in opener; but 4 TDP) since the start of training camp. The Polamalu-sparked zone-blitz defense should cause plenty of problems for the rebuilt Buffalo OL (at least three new starters TY).

(04-Pittsburgh +9' 29-24...SR: Pittsburgh 12-9)

Cincinnati 27 - CLEVELAND 13--Bengals' superior offense dominated in LY's meetings, with Cincy outscoring hated rival 64-17. Considering Cleveland's instability in OL and secondary, plus its dubious situation at QB, prefer to rely on Carson Palmer, "Ocho Cinco," and mates to extend their 15-4-1 spread mark last 20 as visitor. Is Jamal Lewis (35 YR in opener) really the answer for Browns at RB? Palmer, 49 of 72 vs. Cleveland LY, now further removed from Jan. 2006 knee injury.

Indianapolis 23 - TENNESSEE 20--Predictions of the demise of the 2007 Indy defense (5-6 new starters after free agency & injuries) have turned out to be premature. But upstart Tennessee and Vince Young gave Colts all they could handle LY, covering both meetings and winning the second. Can Titans pound out another 278 YR, as they did in Jacksonville, vs. smallish Indy defense on grass? Last four in series "under."


Houston 20 - CAROLINA 16--Not sure that a win over the struggling Chiefs is a definitive "buy" signal for Houston. And we'll see if the supposedly-improved Texans OL can deal with Julius Peppers & friends. But there are enough other indicators that Texans might be a team to watch, especially with top '06 draftee Mario Williams 2 (sacks, fumble ret. TD vs. KC) making an impact, new QB Matt Schaub proving a quick study in Gary Kubiak's offense, and rookie WR find Jacoby Jones making it trickier for opposing defenses to double up on Andre Johnson.

(03-HOUSTON +6' 14-10...SR: Houston 1-0)

San Francisco 23 - ST. LOUIS 17--We're not going to blame St. Louis low-keying it in preseason for their shoddy effort in opening loss vs. Carolina. But Steven Jackson (two fumbles, only 58 YR) looked as if he could have used a few more carries in August. And we're beginning to wonder what options def. cord. Jim Haslett might have with a DL that's counting on rookie NGs Carriker & Ryan to slow the run, but was trampled in opener. With presence of Frank Gore for S.F., QB Alex Smith now mature enough to take advantage.


NY GIANTS 26 - Green Bay 14--During LY's rebuilding season, Packers were 5-2-1 as a road dog. But G.B.'s offense failed to impress in Week One, generating no TDs, even though the defense did perform well in holding Philly to 13. Giants offense owns the better weapons in this one, and their greater imperative to avoid 0-2 start should be another help. N.Y. has the pass rushers (check Umenyiora) that cause Bret Favre to hurry. He'll have to wait before passing John Elway on the QB win list.

(04-NY Giants +6' 14-7...SR: Green Bay 28-22-2)

JACKSONVILLE 24 - Atlanta 9--Tough start for the unintended new era in Atlanta. First, Vick-less Falcons had to deal with the stingy run defense of the Vikings. Now, they must contend with embarrassed Jacksonville defense after it allowed 278 YR in opener. Good chance the Atlanta defense wears down chasing QB Garrard, RB F. Taylor, and mini-bull RB/KR Maurice Jones-Drew (TDs in eight straight games to end LY). Jags 7-3 vs. spread last 10 at home.

(03-ATLANTA -3 21-14...SR: Jacksonville 2-1)

New Orleans 21 - TAMPA BAY 20--Buccaneers already beat up (check status of QB Garcia and RB C. Williams). But T.B. and Jon Gruden used to playing shorthanded after doing it for virtually all of LY! Vaunted Saints' offense failed to score a TD in opener at Indy, and Bucs familiar with the Drew Brees-Reggie Bush attack. It bodes poorly to start 0-2 in the NFL, so look for desperation fight from host.

(06-NEW ORLEANS -6' 24-21, New Orleans P 31-14...SR: New Orleans 19-11)



DETROIT 23 - Minnesota 16--Minny has won last ten meetings in series!!! However, with inexperienced QB Tarvaris Jackson making just the second road start of his career (generated just 3 FDs and 104 total yards in LY's 9-7 foul-weather loss in G.B.; only TD scored via int.), must side with veteran Jon Kitna in this one. After all, Detroit prefers the pass on offense; Vikes excel vs. the run. Time for streak to end, despite new Minny RB Adrian Peterson (103 YR, 60 receiving in opener).

(06-MINNESOTA -6' 26-17, Minnesota +1' 30-20...SR: Minnesota 60-29-2)

Dallas 20 - MIAMI 19--Cowboys put on an exciting offensive show with their 45-point outburst Sunday night vs. the Giants. But points won't come so easy vs. veteran Miami defense, fired up to avoid that debilitating 0-2 start (when chances of making the playoffs dip way down). With Dallas secondary vulnerable, look for Trent Green (24 of 38 in opener at Washington) to improve in Cam Cameron's official home debut.

(03-Miami +3 40-21...SR: Miami 7-4)

ARIZONA 24 - Seattle 23--Regular-season home debut of Arizona HC Ken Whisenhunt. And Seattle was 0-4 as a road favorite in LY's injury-plagued season. If Cardinals intend on being a factor in the NFC West race, beating the three-time defending division champs would go a long way. So, will "take" with Arizona's young talent maturing, and will look "over" (5 of last 6 in series "over;" Seahawks 14-3-1 "over" on road.)

(06-SEATTLE -7 21-10, ARIZONA +3 27-21...SR: EVEN 8-8)

BALTIMORE 23 - NY Jets 10--Baltimore defense tends to be even nastier at home (only 12 ppg LY), where Ravens are 17-8-1 last 26 when favored ("under" 11 of last 17 as host). Will N.Y.'s decision to dump starting G Pete Kendall come back to haunt the Jets (especially Chad Pennington) vs. the rugged Pryce-Gregg-Ngata Baltimore defensive front? Quite likely, especially if RB Thomas Jones (42 YR Game One) can't get going. If LT Jonathon Ogden (turf toe) ready to go, RB McGahee should enjoy nice home debut.

(05-BALTIMORE -7 13-3...SR: Baltimore 4-1)

DENVER 20 - Oakland 14--Things might have gone better for Oakland in its opener had Sebastian Janikowski not destroyed Raider momentum by going 0-3 on FGs. Still, Oakland did appear to be out of LY's malaise, with Josh McCown operating Lane Kiffin's quick passing game well enough to hit 30 of 40 (but 2 ints., 1 lost fumble). They have a good chance to improve some in second game against hated rival. Nine of last 11 in series "under."

06-DENVER -14 13-3, Denver -9 17-13...SR: Oakland 54-39-2)

CHICAGO 29 - Kansas City 6--With K.C. QB & receivers far from scary, Larry Johnson (only 10 for 43 in opener) figures to find slow going vs. Brian Urlacher and the rugged Chicago front seven, especially with DT Tommie Harris looking 100% after LY's injury. Chiefs' shaky OTs will have their hands full vs. Bears' DE rotation of A. Ogunleye, A. Brown & Mark Anderson. Bears (4 giveaways last week in S.D.) 2-0 vs. spread in regular season LY after a loss.

(03-KANSAS CITY -8' 31-3...SR: Chicago 5-4)

*NEW ENGLAND 23 - San Diego 22--Chargers want revenge for their 4th-Q collapse vs. Pats in LY's AFC playoffs. Truly, there are easier teams to seek revenge against. However, S.D. has now won 11 straight in regular season, and Chargers 12-1-2 last 15 as a dog! Their only 3 losses LY (including playoffs) by 3 points each! Tom Brady (22 of 28), Randy Moss (9 for 183; hates "quiz shows"), and Wes Welker (6 recs.) went "nuts" in N.E. opener vs. Jets. But Chargers tougher than Jets; N.E. defense missing starters Seymour & Harrison. TV--NBC


(06-New England +4' 24-21 (AFC Playoffs)...SR: New England 18-14-2)

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 17

*PHILADELPHIA 19 - Washington 16--Donovan McNabb (15 of 33) was a little slow on the trigger in his return at G.B. Philly defense did not allow a TD, but Packers benefited enormously from two muffed punts. Much is being asked of young Wash. QB J. Campbell (only 8 career starts; 222 YP last week). But ground game (182 yds. vs. Miami) and defense giving him solid support. Redskins' conservative style has helped series go "under" 6 of last 7 meetings. CABLE TV--ESPN

(06-PHILADELPHIA -7 27-3, Philadelphia -1' 21-19...SR: Washington 75-64-5)


MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY

Washington and Philadelphia on Monday Night

Washington is 8-18 straight-up and 8-18 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
16-11 straight-up and 15-11-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.

Philadelphia is 15-10 straight-up and 16-9 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
9-10 straight-up and 11-8 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.


HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 2006 (not necessarily Mon. night)

2006 Reg. Seas.: Philadelphia -1½ beat Washington 21-19 at Washington
Reg. Seas.: Philadelphia -7 beat Washington 27-3 at Philadelphia

PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN (1993-06)

Favorites vs. Pointspread

Favored by 1-6½ points Won 83, Lost 87, Tied 3
Favored by 7 points or more Won 32, Lost 25, Tied 2
Total Favorites Won 115, Lost 112, Tied 5

Home Teams vs. Pointspreads

Home Team Favorite Won 83, Lost 83, Tied 5
Home Team Underdog Won 29, Lost 31
Home Team at Pick Won 1, Lost 0
Total Home Team Won 113, Lost 114, Tied 5

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Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 2
9/14/2007 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 2

Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 1 went the way of the Square bettor with favorites going 9-2. It appeared some teams could have used an extra week of pre-season. The 1pm games started the slide for the sportsbooks, but Denver and Jacksonville failing to cover and a lot of blow outs helped break up teasers and parlay action. The 4pm games and late game put the nail in the coffin. It was an ugly day of payouts for the sportsbooks when they opened the doors on Monday.

Our Games to Watch started the season off posting a big goose egg, going 0-3. Always remember that one weekend doesn’t make or break a season. Consistent winning means winning over an entire season. Anyone can go 5-0 but very few professional sports bettors can achieve a winning percentage above 55% for an entire season. Readers from last year will note that we started the season off slow, going 1-2 in week 1 and week 2. We ended the NFL Regulars season with a (31-18 = 63.3%) record. It’s about patience and believing in your research.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public had a monster weekend, 7-2. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis fell flat on its face going 0-3.

View Last Week’s Column

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This Week’s NFL Action

This week, we’re hoping that “our dogs” are awake and ready for some action. In our last article, we mentioned four major criteria we use to judge line value. These factors are so important to getting an edge that we wanted to highlight them again:

• Public overwhelmingly on one side
• Home dog
• Drastic line movement caused by Public money
• Negative press

We anticipate Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Cincinnati to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Each one of these teams is receiving well over 90% of the bets placed. Visit SportsInsights.com to view live wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins

I circled this game because it appears to the untrained eye to be a soft line, which is causing the early Public money to pound Dallas. The line has moved from Dallas -3 to -4. Every week there are typically 2 or 3 games with what appear to be soft lines. These are the games the sportsbooks make a killing on. If it looks too easy, we always take the other side. The odds makers in Vegas know what they are doing. The line should be-3 but Square money has pushed the line to -4 giving the value better an excellent Home Dog play on Miami +4.

Dallas was already an early season Public favorite. Their manhandling of the New York Giants in week 1 only added fuel to fire. Watching the highlights and listening to the media machine, you’d hear nothing but “America’s Team” is back.

The sportsbook I spoke with took a massive amount of Square money on Dallas as soon as they posted a line. They quickly retreated to -3.5, with a lot of Square sportsbooks shading the line to -4. Most of the linemen I spoke with believed they could have posted -6 or even -7 and still received a lot of Dallas action.

Currently, an amazing 90%-94% of the bets are coming in on Dallas. The Public is betting this game like they know the scores. Unfortunately, I’m still waiting for my advance copy of Monday’s sports section. We’re taking the +4 value on a Home Dog the Public money has given us.

Miami +4

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

Indy looked great against New Orleans in week 1. Indy will continue to be a huge Public team until someone finds a game plan to beat them. We like the Tennessee Titans for the same reasons we’re taking the Miami Dolphins.

• Public overwhelmingly on Indy (85%-90%)
• Home dog (+7.5)
• Drastic line movement caused by Public money (-7 to -7.5)

The early Public action has made Tennessee a tremendous Home Dog value getting +7.5. Tennessee picked up right where they left off last season. They showed a lot of grit going into Jacksonville and coming out with a win. Early Public money has pushed the line from -7 to -7.5 at a lot Square sportsbook most notably Bodog.com. We’re taking Tennessee +7.5 and looking for our Home Dogs to start barking!

Tennessee +7.5 (NewBodog.com)

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns

The question is not “how good is Cincy” but rather “how bad is Cleveland?” Frequent readers of this column know that every week you need bad teams to do good things. It sounds easy enough but try putting your money where your mouth is. Who in their right mind would put money on Cleveland this week…no matter what line they put on the game? But it is this psychological bias that makes Cleveland an attractive play. It’s about identifying value. Over the course of an entire season, continually getting an extra half point such as +7 instead of +6.5 – will add an extra few points to your winning percentage. This can be the difference between long-term winning and losing.

I’m taking Cleveland +7 at home for the exact reason everyone is betting against them.

Cleveland +7

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 2.

Games to Watch (0-3)
Miami +4
Tennessee +7.5
Cleveland +7

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

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Re: Sunday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

Brandon Lang

SUNDAY

30 DIME

STEELERS

5 DIME

Packers
Titans
Vikings

Free Pick - Bears - (For analysis see Daily video)

analysis by 10 am eastern sunday

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Re: Sunday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

ROCKETMAN SPORTS


Rocketman Sports plays are rated 1-5 units

MLB

Atlanta @ Washington 1:35 PM EST
Play On: 1* Atlanta -130 (Hudson/Hill) Listed

Washington is 9-35 this year when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Washington is 5-21 this year at home when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Atlanta is scoring 5.5 runs per game on the road this year. Atlanta bullpen has a 3.63 ERA overall this year and a 3.60 ERA on the road this season. Washington is scoring only 4 runs per game overall, 3.8 runs per game at home and 3.8 runs per game against right handed starters. Tim Hudson is 7-3 with a 3.37 ERA on the road this year. Hudson is 4-1 with a 1.29 ERA vs Washington since 1997. We'll play Atlanta for 1 unit today!

Pittsburgh @ Houston 2:05 PM EST
Play On: 5* Pittsburgh +105 (Maholm/Backe) Listed

Houston is 2-10 this year when playing in September. Houston is only batting .241 against left handed starters this year. Paul Maholm is 2-0 his last 3 starts. Brandon Backe has a 7.20 ERA at home this year. Pittsburgh is 10-3 overall vs Houston this year including 6-1 at Houston. We'll play Pittsburgh for 5 units today!



NASCAR

#48 Jimmie Johnson vs #20 Tony Stewart 2:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* #20 Tony Stewart -110

Tony Stewart has two wins, nine Top 5 finishes and ten Top 10 finishes in his 19 races in New Hampshire. Tony finished 2nd in this race last year while Jimmie Johnson finished 39th out of 43 drivers. Tony Stewart is the hottest driver the past 3 races with a 6.3 average finish and 2nd hottest over the past 10 races with an 8.8 average finish. We'll play Tony Stewart to finish ahead of Jimmie Johnson for 3 units today!

#17 Matt Kenseth vs #31 Jeff Burton 2:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* #31 Jeff Burton +100

Jeff Burton has four wins, seven Top 5 finishes and 12 Top 10 finishes in his 25 starts in New Hampshire. Jeff Burton has finished 7th the past 3 races in New Hampshire including this race last year. Matt Kenseth has never found victory lane at New Hampshire in Nextel Cup. We'll play Jeff Burton to finish ahead of Matt Kenseth for 3 units today!



NFL

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh 1:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* Pittsburgh -9 1/2

To start with, Buffalo will be without 3 defensive starters for this game. Pittsburgh is 66-41 ATS since 1992 and 12-4 ATS last 3 years as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points. Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU and ATS at home against Buffalo since 1992 and 7-2 ATS overall vs Buffalo since 1992. Pittsburgh offense blasted Cleveland last week winning 34-7 and we see much of the same this week. Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS last 7 meetings with Buffalo including 4-0 ATS last 4 at home. We'll play Pittsburgh for 3 units today!

NY Jets @ Baltimore 4:15 PM EST
Play On: 4* Baltimore -10

Baltimore is 5-1 ATS last 3 years at home when the total is 32 1/2 to 35 points. NY Jets got blown out 38-14 last week and we see much of the same this week. Probably not as many points scored but all the points will be scored by Baltimore. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS vs NY Jets since 1992. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS last 6 meetings overall with NY Jets including 3-0 ATS last 3 meetings at home. Baltimore is 11-2 ATS off a straight up loss against an opponent off a straight up loss. Baltimore is 13-3 ATS as home favorites in September. Brian Billick is 13-2 ATS at home vs opponent off a double digit straight up loss. NY Jets are 4-18 ATS when the over-under line is less than 35 points. We'll play Baltimore for 4 units today!
Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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Re: Sunday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

FAIRWAY JAY

NFL

206 3.5* Tennessee Titans +7

212 3* NY Giants/Packers 'over' 38
212 2,5* NY Giants -2
213 2.5* Atlanta Falcons +10
220 3* Dolphins/Cowboys 'over' 40.5
222 3* Arizona Cardinals +3
231 3* Washington Redskins +7 (Mon)

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