Saturday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

Saturday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

Football Chicks will be unavailable and released their Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday picks this moring. DISCLAIMER NOTE...They said if Saturday shows a profit then cut the Sunday units in half. If Saturday is a losing day then leave the Sunday units as is.

Thursday - pass
Friday - pass

Saturday college 3-teamer of the year:
7 units - 131 Army +20
7 units - 156 East Carolina +1
7 units - 166 Alabama -3
1 unit parlay - 131/156
1 unit parlay - 131/166
1 unit parlay - 156/166

3 units - 153 Akron +13
3 units - 152 Navy -7
1 unit - 121 Cincy -9
1 unit - 125 Iowa -17.5

Sunday NFL 3-teamer of the year:
7 units - 214 Jax -10
7 units - 221 Seattle -3
7 units - 225 Oakland +10
1 unit parlay - 214/221
1 unit parlay - 214/225
1 unit parlay - 221/225

5 units - 211 Green Bay +1
1 unit - 210 St Louis -3
1 unit - 215 New Orleans -3.5

NFL Chicks = +12.00 units (25-21)
NFL Chicks Fade = -22.60 units (21-25)
NCAAF Chicks = -0.20 units (1-2)
NCAAF Chicks Fade = -0.20 units (2-1)

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Re: Saturday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

SPYLOCK (5* Highest rated play ):
5* NEBRASKA
1* FLORIDA
1* BALL STATE

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Re: Saturday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

Executive

Sat , September 15 12:30
AUBURN -13
over Miss State


FREE SELECTION ANALYSIS

Auburn has blown away Miss State in their previous 5 meetings winning by an
average margin of 31 points.

They shut them out the past 2 years, as they won
by an average score of 31-0.

This is Auburn's Conference opener and their 3rd consecutive home game of the season.

Look for them to bounce back in a big way off their
loss last week to So.Florida.

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THE GOLD SHEET
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

AUBURN by 24 over Mississippi State

MICHIGAN STATE by 18 over Pittsburgh

BOSTON COLLEGE by 3 over Georgia Tech

UTEP by 4 over New Mexico State

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BIG AL'S FULL SERVICE CLIENTS

5* kentucky
3* ga tech - washington

OPINIONS - kansas - notre dame - tulsa

Saturday:
Our college football selections include Kentucky, Notre Dame, Washington, Tulsa, Kansas, and Georgia Tech.

Kentucky -- At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats plus the points over Louisville. Steve Kragthorpe's Cardinals struggled last Thursday against Middle Tennessee State. The Cards won, but surrendered 42 points in the process. That does not bode well for Saturday night's game against rival Kentucky, whose offense is clicking on all cylinders. The Wildcats own blowout wins over Kent State (56-20) and Eastern Kentucky (50-10) and fall into a super system that is a perfect 15-0 ATS since 1981. What we want to do is play on any home dog getting 2+ points that scored 43+ points in its previous 2 games, provided it did not give up 35 or more points in its previous game. Take Kentucky plus the points.

Notre Dame -- At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Michigan. Of course the storyline of this game will be the fall from grace of College Football's two most storied programs. Notre Dame has been embarassed by both Georgia Tech and Penn State, and has rushed for negative yardage on the season (67 rushes for -8 yards). And offensive guru Charlie Weis' men have yet to score an offensive touchdown. But Michigan's performance has been even worse (if that's possible). The Wolves lost 34-32 to Appalachian State, and then were destroyed 39-7 by Oregon, as the Ducks rushed for 331 yards on 51 carries. Clearly, Ron English's defense resembles swiss cheese more than the impenetrable unit that took the field for much of last season. But regardless of the storylines, one thing has remained constant in this rivalry over the last 27 years: the underdog covers! And if the underdog is NOT going into revenge, it's a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1980. Last year, Michigan blasted Notre Dame 47-21. Look for the Irish to avenge that defeat on Saturday. Take the points.

Washington -- At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies plus the points over Ohio State. Last week, we used Washington as a home dog over Boise State, and Tyrone Willingham's men snapped Boise's 15-game win streak. Can Washington win back-to-back big games? My database indicates that the Huskies will do just that. Consider that, since 1980, road teams are a horrific 5-25 ATS in their 3rd game of the season, if they enter off two home wins, and their foe is off back to back SU/ATS wins, provided our road team did not score more than 37 points in its previous game (Ohio State scored just 20). And if our home team is off an upset win, then our 25-5 stat zooms to an almost perfect 11-1 ATS. Take Washington.

Georgia Tech -- At 8 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets minus the points over Boston College. Ga Tech has two blowout wins thus far in 2007: 33-3 over Notre Dame, and 69-14 over Samford. Now, Chan Gailey's men fall into a terrific system that's cashed 100% since 1980. What we want to do is play on any unrested, single-digit home favorite that scored 60+ points, if it's matched up against a foe off back to back SU/ATS wins. With Boston College indeed off two SU/ATS wins (over NC State and Wake Forest), we'll fade Jeff Jagodzinski's men and lay the points with Georgia Tech.

Tulsa -- At 9 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane plus the points over BYU, as Tulsa falls into a Game 2 System of mine that has cashed 60% since 1980. What we want to do is play on any rested home dog off a win in Game 1. And Tulsa also falls into a 2nd system of mine that is 69-29 ATS which also involves playing on rested teams in Game 2. After leaving his assistant coaching position at Tulsa for the head coach job at Rice, Todd Graham returned this season to take the top job (following Steve Kragthorpe's departure for Louisville). Graham did a super job last year at Rice (the Owls won and covered their final six regular season games), and led that school to its first bowl bid in 45 years. Look for Graham to have a super year at Tulsa. Take the Golden Hurricane plus the points.

Kansas -- At 7 pm, our selection is on Kansas, as the Jayhawks fall into several 'momentum' systems of mine following their 52-7 and 60-0 wins over Central Michigan and SE Louisiana. Now, the Jayhawks will try to avenge their 37-31 loss at Toledo in Week 3 last season. And home favorites priced from -2 to -33 points off a shutout win of 40+ points are a super 79% ATS since 1980 vs. an opponent off a loss. With the Rockets off a 52-31 blowout loss at Central Michigan, we'll fade Toledo and lay the big number with Kansas. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

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Gavazzi Steamrollers


5% MICHIGAN ST



Unfortunately, I did not heed the advice about getting “dogged” in my article entitled “Don’t get DOGGED” available under “Free Stuff” on this site. Our 5% play Northwestern won but did not cover 36-31 with the final falling above the week 1 line but below the week 2 line. This week, however, I see plenty of value as we return to a Spartan team who won as a 5% Steamroller in week 1, 55-18, over UAB when they out gained the Blazers a balanced 593 to 226. Look for more of the same today against a Pitt team who could gain just 321 yards in defeating Grambling LW. That was even worse than- the 326 yards they gained against lowly E. Mich in week 1. A major reason for this is the fact they have lost their #1 QB, Stull, #1 WR Kinder and have an unsettled OL. Now they must step way up in class to face a rejuvenated Spartan team who is allowing just 30 RYPG on 1.0 YPR. Meanwhile, RB’s Ringer and Caulcrick are balancing the offense behind QB Hoyer who is averaging 220 YPG on 68% C. LY State rolled Pitt 38-10, running over them for 335 yards. Mark that down as a potential final for today, though the margin may be more.



3% OREGON



Seldom do you get a week 3 (2-0) SU ATS HF who covered by 39 points LW who is not a public favorite. Yet, due to the 0-2 SU start by Michigan, Oregon gets little credit for their dismantling of the Wolves. Rather, we get a fair price because of Fresno’s reputation which was only enhanced by a 3 OT loss at A&M LW. The perception is that HC Hill will have his minions in bounce back mode against yet another Big Boy while Oregon will fall flat following their performance in The Big House. The truth is that Fresno is a very emotional team which feeds on it’s most recent result and stands 4-16 ATS off a loss. Most indicative for our purposes is the fact that Fresno was out rushed 318-139 by A&M LW while the balanced Oregon attack was Steamrolling Michigan for 624 yards including a 331-144 overland advantage. Momentum works at a fair price equivalent to that of week 1.



3% VA TECH



We switch to bounce back mode to back this week 3 National power house who enters at 0-2 ATS following a 7-48 embarrassment at LSU LW. In (2) games they have been out rushed 439-104. Enter the perfect victim, the Ohio U. Bobcats. To rejuvenate the offense HC Beamer will insert true frosh QB Taylor as the starter. Look for an offensive explosion today. The Bobcats have a poor recent history. LY Ohio scored a combined 13 points on a combined 49 RY in losing to Rutgers and Missouri. With graduation of all their starting LB’s, look for things to get worse. LW, they allowed LA Lafayette to total 534 yards including 277 RY on 5.5 YPR. Look for teams to return to a September form which finds Ohio to be a recent 9-21 ATS while VA Tech is 34-15 ATS vs. Non cons. Big time Bounce Back Steamroller at a price below that of week 1.

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SATURDAY

Pointwise Redsheet

89 Kansas 57 Toledo 13

89 Tennesee 22 Florida 23

88 Michigan State 38 Pittsburgh 20

88 Indiana 41 Akron 17

88 Arizona State 56 San Diego State 7

87 Missouri,New Mexico,Penn State,Texas Tech

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DR. BOB !! Strong Opinions on UCLA at -14 or less and Miss State at +11 or more.

3 Star Selection
***MIAMI OHIO 24 Cincinnati (-8.5) 23
09:00 AM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Cincinnati won for me last week as a 3-Star Best Bet in their 34-3 romp over Oregon State, but the situation is not good for the Bearcats as they hit the road for the first time and Cincy is now overrated. The Bearcats have won their two games by a combined 93- 6 score, but they are averaging a +4.5 in turnover margin, which certainly isn’t going to continue. Cincy only out-gained Oregon State 4.8 yppl to 4.1 yppl last week, so they weren’t nearly as dominant as the final score indicates and Miami-Ohio is a missed kick away from being 2-0 after losing in 3 OT’s at Minnesota last week. The Redhawks upset Ball State on the road in their opener and they are a much improved club after last season’s uncharacteristic 2-10 record. My ratings only favor Cincinnati by 4 ½ points in this game and Miami is certainly capable of an upset win here given that the Bearcats apply to a negative 31-75-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation (that worked against Cal at Colorado State last week). Cincinnati, meanwhile applies to a 109-46-1 ATS home underdog situation and the record is 19-6 ATS for the home dog when both of those situations apply to the same game. Miami’s starting running back Brandon Murphy is out, but backup Andre Bratton is solid. One concern is the questionable status of top defensive player Joey Hudson, who led the team in tackles, tackles for loss and interceptions last season. Hudson is worth 1 ½ points based on last year’s stats, so I’d still only favor Cincy by 6 points if Hudson doesn’t play. I’ll take Miami-Ohio in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +6 ½ or +6 points.

3 Star Selection
***KANSAS (-23.0) 42 Toledo 9
04:00 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Kansas was very impressive in their 52-7 opening day win over a decent Central Michigan team and the Jayhawks followed that up with a 62-0 rout of SE Louisiana last Saturday. Kansas is no fluke. The Jayhawks’ defense struggled a bit last year with just 3 returning starters, but they look as good as the 2004 and 2005 defensive units, which had an average rating of 0.9 yards per play better than average. This year’s team finally has an offense to compliment their defense, as sophomore quarterback Todd Reesing has looked sharp while the rushing attack has been better than average as well. Toledo was a bad team last season and they don’t appear to be any better this year after getting blown out by Purdue 24-52 at home in week 1 and then losing 31-52 at Central Michigan last week – the same Central Michigan team that Kansas beat 52-7. The Rockets have averaged just 5.0 yppl while allowing a horrendous 7.2 yppl in their two games and they won’t be able to compete with Kansas in this game. The Jayhawks apply to a very strong 68-15-1 ATS fundamental indicator, a 110-43-1 ATS home momentum situation and a 46-8 ATS momentum situation. Toledo, meanwhile, is just 12-22-3 ATS on the road under coach Todd Amstutz. My ratings favor Kansas by 23 ½ points and I’d favor the Jayhawks by 37 points if I only used this year’s games instead of incorporating my pre-season ratings. The Jayhawks certainly have incentive after dominating last year’s game against Toledo only to lose in overtime thanks to -5 in turnover margin. I’ll take Kansas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less, for 4-Stars at -21 points or less and for 2- Stars from -24 ½ to -26 points.

2 Star Selection
**KENTUCKY 40 Louisville (-6.5) 37
04:30 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Louisville’s offense is as explosive as ever, but the Cardinals allowed 42 points on 564 yards at 10.3 yards per play in their 58-42 win over Middle Tennessee State last week. Kentucky has averaged 301 rushing yards at 7.8 yards per rushing play in the first two games and senior quarterback Andre Woodson is among the nation’s best quarterbacks after rating at 1.3 yards per pass play better than average last season with 31 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions (he’s now gone 206 passes without throwing a pick). Kentucky will give up tons of yardage on the ground to Louisville but the Wildcats’ secondary is much better this season and the ‘Cats have certainly played better defensively than Louisville has so far this season. My ratings favor Louisville by 5 points, but Kentucky has actually been the better team so far this season. The reason for the play is not the line value but rather a number of strong situations that favor the Wildcats in this game. Kentucky applies to a 48-8-1 ATS subset of a 144-63-3 ATS home momentum situation while Louisville applies to a negative 93-167-10 ATS situation that plays against road favorites coming off a home game in which they allowed a lot of points (applied against Cal last week). I’ll take Kentucky in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and I’d make Kentucky a 3-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of 7 points or more again.

Strong Opinion
Mississippi St. 19 AUBURN (-13.0) 26
09:30 AM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Mississippi State came through with a good effort last week at Tulane despite being in a very negative situation and I expect the Bulldogs to build off of that performance against an overrated Auburn team that is already 0-2 ATS. The Tigers lost straight up to South Florida, which really isn’t much of an upset, and that loss sets up Auburn in a negative 9-43-1 ATS situation and a negative 30-66 ATS situation. Both of those situations are based on last week’s upset loss and the record is 0-5 ATS when both apply to the same game. Mississippi State looked horrible in their opening 0-45 loss to LSU, but that loss doesn’t look so bad now that LSU just dominated Virginia Tech 48-7. In fact, Miss State held LSU to just 4.8 yards per play while Virginia Tech’s top notch defense gave up 599 yards at 8.3 yppl to the Tigers. Mississippi State’s offense performed pretty well offensively last week, averaging a solid 5.8 yppl, but that unit is still below average and will probably have some trouble moving the ball against a good Auburn defense. However, Miss State is good defensively and Auburn has struggled on offense in their first two games against good defensive teams (just 4.3 yppl). The only negative is that Auburn is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite following a loss. My ratings favor Auburn by just 10 points and I’ll consider Mississippi State a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more and I’d take Mississippi State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.

Strong Opinion
UCLA (-14.0) 30 UTAH 10
02:00 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Utah’s offense went from a potentially potent attack to a worse than average unit when top back Matt Asiata and talented quarterback Brian Johnson both were injured in a game 1 loss to Oregon State. Backup quarterback Tommy Grady isn’t mobile enough to run the option elements of the Utah offense and the Utes don’t have a back that can run well without the benefit of the option’s deception. Grady was an Oklahoma transfer but he hasn’t shown any of his promise in 1 ½ games so far, as he’s averaged just 4.2 yards per pass play this season. UCLA’s defense is one of the better units in the nation and they should have no trouble shutting down the crippled Utes’ attack. UCLA, meanwhile, should be able to pound the ball up the middle against a soft Utah defense front that lost two run-stuffing tackles to graduation and now are without senior DT Gabe Long, who suffered an MCL injury last week. Utah has surrendered an average of 297 yards per game at 5.7 yards per rushing play in two games while UCLA has averaged 5.8 yards per rushing play in their two games. Talented Bruins’ quarterback Ben Olsen has done a pretty good job throwing the football (6.4 yards per pass play), but Utah defends the pass well – although UCLA probably won’t need to throw the ball much given their projected domination running the ball. The Bruins apply to a very strong 131-53-3 ATS fundamental indicator while Utah applies to a negative 30-64-2 ATS situation that is based on their upset home loss to Air Force. My ratings favor UCLA by 12 points and I’ll consider UCLA a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less and I’d make UCLA a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 or less.

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rob ferringo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLLEGE SELECTIONS
4-Unit Play. Take #133 Tennessee (+7.5) over Florida (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
You have to fade the national champs on general principle. And when you factor in that this is a rivalry game that has been decided by an average of 6.7 points over the last 10 years and 4.0 over the last three this is simply too many points. The home team is just 2-5 in this series and six of the past nine meetings have been decided by four points or less. Also, the Vols are 3-0 ATS as SEC dogs of 8.0 or more over the past decade and I think they’re better prepared for this game. UT has played two quality opponents in Cal and Southern Miss, while the Gators have beaten up cream puffs. We’ll take the points and the team with a chip on its shoulder.

4-Unit Play. Take #166 Alabama (-3) over Arkansas (6:45 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Last year the Razorbacks had a much better team and were playing at home, but barely escaped with an OT win over the Tide. This year Arkansas is not as good and is playing on the road against an improved team with revenge. I just don’t see how Alabama doesn’t win this game – and win it big. Arkansas simply is not as good as they were last year and the Tide is better. There is no lookahead situation here and the motivation of back-to-back OT losses is enough for ‘Bama to take this one.

4-Unit Play. Take #155 Southern Mississippi (-1) over East Carolina (6 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Right now is the perfect time to fade East Carolina, coming off an impressive game against a poor UNC team. Southern Miss, on the other hand, got slapped around by Tennessee. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t the much better team here. The Eagles are 9-2 against the Pirates since 1996, with SMU winning five of the last six by an average score of 32-14. Southern Miss is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six at East Carolina. The Pirates stole a fluke win last year on the road, and I think the Eagles get revenge this year with a strong showing.

3-Unit Play. Take #187 New Mexico (+10) over Arizona (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Any time you have a team that can run the ball and play the type of defense that the Lobos do you’ll happily take the points. I don’t trust Willie Tuitama at QB for the Wildcats, and that Lobos secondary is one of the best that Arizona will see all year. New Mexico is 19-10-1 ATS as a road dog over the last seven years and 10-4 ATS in the last three.

3-Unit Play. Take #167 Boston College (+7) over Georgia Tech (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I simply think this is too many points in a game featuring two good teams. Also, I trust Matt Ryan more than I do Taylor Bennett and after blowout wins over Wake Forest and N.C. State I think that the Eagles have proven more than the Jackets have with wins over sad-sacks Notre Dame and Samford. This should be a grinder, one that I think B.C. can win, and thus there is value in taking the points.

2-Unit Play. Take #149 UCLA (-14) over Utah (5 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
We’re going to keep going to the well until the well is dry with the Bruins. They hammered the Utes 31-10 last year in California, and while I do think that playing on the road will be much more difficult I also think that a veteran UCLA squad will remain focused. Utah has just been decimated by injuries, and will be without four offensive starters – their starting QB, RB, WR, and RT – and their young defense has gotten manhandled over the past two weeks.

2-Unit Play. Take #129 Eastern Michigan (+14.5) over Northern Illinois (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)
This is a lot of points to overcome for two offenses that don’t score much. Northern Illinois is only averaging 17 points per game and can’t be feeling too good about themselves after a loss to Southern Illinois. EMU has a wealth of experience and I think could be a surprise team in the MAC. I think they could win this one outright, and thus there’s value taking the points. Finally, the Eagles are 3-0 ATS in their last three trips to NIU.

1-Unit Play. Take #169 Duke (+16.5) over Northwestern (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Northwestern proved last week that it doesn’t deserve to be a double-digit dog and now they’re laying a ton of points to a team desperate for a win. The Wildcats are just 2-11 ATS as a home favorite since 2001 and will be without their stud running back Tyrell Sutton this week and Duke has covered in their of their last four trips to Chicago.

NFL SELECTIONS
7-Unit Play. Take #215 New Orleans (-3.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Month. I do endorse this play up to -4.0. It is pretty stable at -3.5 in Vegas but is -3.0 at a majority of the top nine online sportsbooks and that is our basis. Believe me, this will be a double-digit win so an extra half-point shouldn't factor in.

Since 1997, teams that started the year with two straight road games are 20-13 ATS (60.6) in Week 2. Favorites in that role (as in, favored in the second game) are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent). Those road teams are 13-6 ATS off a loss in Week 1, and 5-1 when instilled as a favorite after that loss. New Orleans is devalued after that undressing on the Thursday night opener, but they were actually winning that game early and were tied, with the ball, to start the second half. Their talent puts them in the top one-third of teams in this league while Tampa is still a bottom-third club. The Tampa offense can’t put the type of pressure on a team that the Colts can and I think that the Saints are just itching to show that their defense is actually better this season than last. Also, if Brian Kelly doesn’t play the Bucs are short one of their best corners. That’s not a place you want to be when Drew Brees comes to town. Sean Payton is 7-3 ATS on the road and New Orleans has covered four of five against the Bucs. Finally, the moneyline on this game is anywhere from 25 to 50 cents heavy, and that's a strong indicator.

4-Unit Play. Take #221 Seattle (-2.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
This line is baffling. Until the Cardinals actually win some games they don’t deserve the respect that they get from the public, who is in love with them as a perpetual “sleeper team”. They aren’t. The Cardinals are 6-18 ATS (25 percent) in September home games and 12-19 ATS in September divisional games. They are 0-4 ATS since 2003 in divisional home games in September. The Cardinals are 3-16 straight up and 2-10 ATS in home openers, they are coming off a short week, and they are facing a team with superior talent. Arizona will start two rookie offensive linemen against a veteran Seattle front seven. I simply don’t see how they will be able to withstand the pressure, and I don’t see them stopping an offense that is very familiar with their personnel.

4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 37.0 Buffalo at Pittsburgh (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Over the past two years the Steelers are an astounding 13-1-2 against the total when playing at home. Buffalo’s defense is decimated – I mean completely decimated – and will be without as many as five starters. The Steelers have been throwing the ball more with Bruce Arians and I see them completely devastating the Bills. Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS over the past five years with a line between 36.0 and 38.0. Further, the ‘over’ is 36-15-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 53 home games, 46-22-2 with them as a favorite, and 10-1-1 when they allow less than 15 points in the previous game. Buy onto 37 if you have to because it’s such a key number, but if the Bills can chip in 9-13 points this one won’t be in doubt at all.

4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 34.5 Kansas City at Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: I endorse this play at 35.0 because that merely brings the push into play.

Chicago went 9-1 against the number last year at home and is 9-3 in Soldier Field when the total is between 33.5 and 35.5. The ‘over’ is 10-2 in Chicago’s last 12 home games, 16-6-1 in their last 23 overall, and 14-3-1 as a favorite. The Bears lost two starters on defense last week and the Chiefs will be without two of their better defenders (Jared Allen and Patrick Surtain). These two teams combined for six points last week so there’s a naturally overreaction toward the ‘under’. But there’s a system at work here that’s hit at nearly 73 percent ‘over’ for the past six years. Chicago’s first four home games last year saw an average of 45.5 combined points and four of the Bears’ last five home openers have gone ‘over’. Rex Grossman is notorious for this – answering critics with a 250-yard, 4 TD eruption when everyone is calling for his head.

3-Unit Play. Take #206 Tennessee (+7.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Two very good systems at work here. First, play on a home dog that won its last game outright vs. an opponent who was playing at home. This system hit at roughly 61 percent over the past 15 years. Next, play on a division home dog that won straight up on as an away dog the previous week. This system has hit at 66 percent over the past 15 years. I couldn’t have been more impressed with how physical Tennessee was last week and I think they can make the Colts uncomfortable with their style. Also, road teams favored by 7.5 or more were 38-63 ATS (37.6 percent) between 1997 and 2006.

2-Unit Play. Take #207 Houston (+7) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
If the Panthers are an automatic play as an underdog (20-3-1 ATS) then they are also an automatic play against as a favorite. The Jake Delhomme-John Fox combo is 9-17-1 ATS as a home favorite, 3-7 ATS at home, and 3-12 ATS as a favorite between 4.0 and 7.0. Remember, the Panthers were on the verge of losing in St. Louis before two Steven Jackson fumbles handed them 14 points. I don’t see Carolina running the ball they way they did against an awful Rams defense, and this is play blends two basic tenets that have been very successful recently – playing the underdogs (58 percent ATS in 2006) and playing the AFC vs. the NFC.

2-Unit Play. Take #232 Philadelphia (-6.5) over Washington (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 16)
Andy Reid is 10-1 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite and Donovan McNabb is 16-7 ATS following a loss. The Eagles are 17-10 ATS playing at home as a favorite after a loss and - the coup de grace - they are 11-3 ATS as home chalk on Monday Night Football. Is this line about 1-3 points to much? Yes. But you can't argue with results. Washington is 3-7 ATS on MNF and have a young quarterback making his first road start. In Philly. The 'Skins lost Jon Jansen and I think their offensive line will suffer, especially against the blitz-happy Eagles. Finally, Washington is 10-5 ATS when scoring 21 or more points and 12-22 ATS when they don't. I don't see it happening for them this week.

BONUS SELECTION
3-Unit Play. TEASER: Take Chicago (-1.5), Jacksonville (-0.5), and Pittsburgh (-0.5).
Note: This is a 3-team sweetheart teaser which just about all online books offer. However, since all customers that use "local guys" may not be able to play this game it's simply a bonus play. I initially liked all three teams to cover their normal lines, and favorites of 8.0 or higher in Week 2 went 5-1 last year. However, over the past 10 years faves of -8.0 or higher this early in the year are just 13-18 ATS (41.9 percent) and if you throw out last year they were just 8-17 ATS (32 percent). For this bet to lose, one of these three teams would have to lose outright, basically, and I simply do not see that happening. I see Chicago 34-10, Jacksonville 24-13, and Pittsburgh 38-9. It's 10-cent juice on this bet and I like it as an online bonus for those of you that like the action.

That's it for this week. Good luck.

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ace-ace / alan eastman +9.25 units ncaa fb

4 Usc -9'
3 Mich -7'
4 Kansas -24

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Re: Saturday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

north coast early bird:

va tech -18' (mon line)

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Re: Saturday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

Mike Neri

5* Kansas

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Re: Saturday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

BIG AL'S 100% (15-0) 5* NON-CONFERENCE DOG OF THE YEAR -

5* kentucky

Kentucky -- At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats plus the points over Louisville. Steve Kragthorpe's Cardinals struggled last Thursday against Middle Tennessee State. The Cards won, but surrendered 42 points in the process. That does not bode well for Saturday night's game against rival Kentucky, whose offense is clicking on all cylinders. The Wildcats own blowout wins over Kent State (56-20) and Eastern Kentucky (50-10) and fall into a super system that is a perfect 15-0 ATS since 1981. What we want to do is play on any home dog getting 2+ points that scored 43+ points in its previous 2 games, provided it did not give up 35 or more points in its previous game. Take Kentucky plus the points.

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Re: Saturday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

SATURDAY

Phil Steel's Private Play Hot Line

ACC Play-O-The Week

Georgia Tech - (over Boston College)

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Re: Saturday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

Larry Ness' 20* Conference GOY (perfect 7-0 start with 20* plays in FB '07!)-Saturday
My 20* play is on Southern Miss at 6:00 ET. Jeff Bower may be the least appreciated coach in the nation. He enters his 17th season at Hattiesburg and after a 1-1 start in '07, has compiled a 113-78-1 mark. That includes taking the Golden Eagles to NINE bowls in the last 10 years (six wins, including C-USA's lone bowl win LY!). Skip Holtz has done a real nice job at East Carolina, as he took over a school which had gone 3-20 in '03 and '04 and is 13-13 since '05. More impressively, his ATS mark is 19-7! To open '07, the Pirates went into Blacksburg and played Va Tech well, losing 17-7 as almost a four-TD underdog. They then beat North Carolina 34-31 on a last-second FG last Saturday, for the school's first win over the Tar Heels since 1975 and just the SECOND in school history! QB Patrick Pinkney was great LW (406 YP and three TDs) but he gets little help from a rushing game that's averaged just 103 YPG (3.0 per). While the Pirates are home, they'll have a tough time with Southern Miss. East Carolina could easily be 'flat' off the North Carolina win plus Southern Miss will surely be focused after losing to EC last year at home! The Pirates scored on a 4th down play from the two-yard line, to send the game into OT with 13 seconds remaining. EC then won 20-17 in OT. That ended a five-game winning streak in the series for Southern Miss, in which it had outscored EC by the combined score of 174-66! QB Jeremy Young is now a senior and RB Damion Fletcher is off a freshman year in which he gained 1,388 YR (5.0 per) and scored 11 TDs. Revenge is a major motivating force here and Bower leads his team to yet another conference win. C-USA Game of the Year 20* Southern Miss.

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Re: Saturday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

HERD ( 6-3 )
Colin Cowherd ESPN Radio :

NOTRE DAME
FLORIDA
FRESNO STATE
KENTUCKY

Opinion- ALABAMA, UCLA

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CKO Gold Sheet

10 *INDIANA over Akron

Late Score Forecast:
*INDIANA 39 - Akron 16

Indiana HC Bill Lynch has done an excellent job getting the Hoosiers mentally
ready to play this season in the wake of former coach Terry Hoeppner's death.
The team is focused and playing with purpose. Talent-wise, this is one of
the most gifted Hoosier squads in years, as maturing soph QB Kellen Lewis has
thrown for 3 scores in each of the first two games as his receiving stars
James Hardy (6-7; 51 catches LY) & James Bailey (6-2; 40 recs. LY) have been
augmented by emergence of soph smurf wideout Ray Fisher (9 catches vs. W.
Mich.). Akron attack has been constricted by delayed development of soph QBs
Chris Jaquemain & lefty scrambler Carlton Jackson. Neither has distinguished
himself, and Zip HC Brookhart has also been hampered by an OL that has 4 new
starters (2 are RS frosh, another a soph). Two-TD spread not enough.

10 *NORTH CAROLINA over Virginia
Late Score Forecast:
*NORTH CAROLINA 27 - Virginia 13

Long-time ACC scouts are extremely bullish on chemistry-rich, hungry UNC
squad that's thrilled to be playing for upbeat, respected 1st-year mentor
Butch Davis after suffering through 5 years of bumbling, brutish John
Bunting. Tar Heels quick-learning, accurate 6-3 RS frosh QB Yates (66%; 344
YP vs. E. Carolina) will burn a Virginia 2ndary that has tendency to give up
too many big plays. Conversely, Cavs frustrated HC Groh says he will
continue to rotate his QBs (inserted true frosh Lalich), since soph
triggerman Sewell has seriously struggled in early going without top WR
Ogletree (out for year). Either QB will get pressure from hard-charging UNC
frosh DT Austin (rated nation's top prep DLman). So, look for rejuvenated &
revenge-minded Heels (lost 23-0 in Charlottesville LY) to cover small number
vs. poor-travelin' UVA squad that's 1-9 as a road dog since 2004.

10 *ALABAMA over Arkansas
Late Score Forecast:
*ALABAMA 28 - Arkansas 13

SEC scouts say it won't take much for HC Nick Saban to get the Crimson Tide
ready for this match vs. Arkansas, which won LY's meeting 24-23 in OT in
Fayetteville, thanks to three missed Alabama FGs in regulation and a blown
PAT in the extra session! Moreover, improving jr. QB John Parker Wilson, who
was making his first road start in that contest, provides the Tide with an
important balance edge on offense. Razorbacks had last week off to prepare
more plays for their versatile, excellent RB duo of McFadden & F. Jones.
However, with the health of star WR Marcus Monk (knee) up in the air, Saban
can focus his revamped, NFL-style, Bama defense (255-pound ILB Prince Hall
returned from suspension last week) vs. Hogs' ground game. In the first of
several SEC "crucials" for Saban's crew, Red Elephants get their revenge.


10 *FLA. ATLANTIC over Minnesota
(at Dolphin Stadium)
Late Score Forecast:
*FLA. ATLANTIC 29 - Minnesota 27

Acknowledge FAU's recent woes outside of Sun Belt, failing to cover last 8 in
role. But Owls usually on road for those paydays (including the last 7), and
now get rare chance to host BCS conference foe in south Florida. And Howard
Schnellenberger's troops are catching Minnesota at a good time. That's
because Gophers in adjustment phase for 1st-year HC Tim Brewster, with RS
frosh QB Andy Weber still getting feel for Minny's new spread attack.
Meanwhile, early efforts vs. modest MAC opposition have underlined concerns
about Gopher "D," especially suspect 2ndary already torched by undynamic
Bowling Green & Miami-O attacks. No reason maturing FAU "O" and emerging soph
QB Rusty Smith can't do same. And vet (10 starters back), quick-footed Owl
"D" that put clamps on potent Middle Tennessee in opener not a bad matchup
vs. young UM QB Weber, making first road start.
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HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games)
PURDUE (-20) vs. Central Michigan
IOWA STATE (+17) vs. Iowa
KANSAS (-22) vs. Toledo
CENTRAL FLORIDA (+19) vs.Texas-Longhorns




Gold Sheet

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

AUBURN by 24 over Mississippi State
MICHIGAN STATE by 18 over Pittsburgh
BOSTON COLLEGE by 3 over Georgia Tech
UTEP by 4 over New Mexico State


Illinois 22 - SYRACUSE 17
CONNECTICUT 46 - Temple 10
NORTH CAROLINA 26 - Virginia 19
PENN STATE 51 - Buffalo 10
VANDERBILT 30 - Mississippi 20
AUBURN 30 - Mississippi State 6
PURDUE 43 - Central Michigan 17
Cincinnati 23 - MIAMI-OHIO 19
VIRGINIA TECH 36 - Ohio 10
Iowa 23 - IOWA STATE 13
KANSAS 51 - Toledo 23
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 30 - Eastern Michigan 10
WAKE FOREST 40 - Army 13
FLORIDA 27 - Tennessee 24
MICHIGAN 24 - Notre Dame 20
OKLAHOMA 54 - Utah State 3
OREGON 38 - Fresno State 17
MICHIGAN STATE 35 - Pittsburgh 17
Ohio State 17 - WASHINGTON 16
Texas 29 - UCF 16
CALIFORNIA 48 - Louisiana Tech 23
Ucla 26 - UTAH 10
*NAVY 30 - Ball State 27
*INDIANA 37 - Akron 16
*EAST CAROLINA 28 - Southern Miss 24
*MISSOURI 49 - Western Michigan 24
*WASHINGTON STATE 38 - Idaho
*Houston 42 - TULANE 23
*KENTUCKY 42 - Louisville 41
*ALABAMA 27 - Arkansas 16
*Boston College 30 - GEORGIA TECH 27
*NORTHWESTERN 35 - Duke 14
*Southern Cal 23 - NEBRASKA 17
*Utep 31 - NEW MEXICO STATE 27
*BOISE STATE 23 - Wyoming 17
*TULSA 27 - Byu 24
*Hawaii 41 - UNLV 20
*Florida State 24 - COLORADO 23
*ARIZONA STATE 48 - San Diego State 13
*ARIZONA 25 - New Mexico 22
*STANFORD 27 - San Jose State 23

MIAMI-FLORIDA 45 - Florida Intl. 3
*TEXAS A&M 38 - La.-Monroe 7 (FIRST MEETING)
*ARKANSAS STATE 34 - Smu 28
*Minnesota 29 - FLORIDA ATLANTIC 23
*LSU 49 - Middle Tennessee State 3

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Re: Saturday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

Norm Hitzges (went 11-10 ncaa & 6-5 in nfl, he counts double plays a two plays)

Weekend of 9/15/07

NCAA

Double Play--Kansas -23 vs Toledo
Illinois -12.5 vs Syracuse
Wake Forest -19.5 vs Army
Arizona State -28 vs San Diego State
Buffalo +34 vs Penn State
Vandy -5 vs Mississippi
VaTech -20.5 vs Ohio
Michigan State -11 vs Pittsburgh
Kentucky +6.5 vs Louisville
USC -9.5 vs Nebraska
Georgia Tech -6.5 vs Boston College
California -33.5 vs LaTech
NFL

Double Play--Cincy -6.5 vs Cleveland
Tennessee +7 vs Indy
San Francisco +3 vs St Louis
Green Bay pk vs NY Giants
New Orleans -3.5 vs Tampa
Chicago -12 vs KC
San Diego +3.5 vs New England
Tennessee/Indy Under 45.5
Jacksonville/Atlanta Under 34.5
Baltimore/NY Jets Under 33.5

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Re: Saturday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

THE GOLD SHEET Late Telephone Selections:

#166 ALABAMA = SUPER POWER 7 (which I think means it's a 2 unit play)
#175 TEXAS-EL PASO = Top Play (which translates to 1 1/2 units)
#122 MIAMI (Ohio) = Regular Play (1 unit)
#124 VIRGINIA TECH = Regular Play (1 unit)
#133 TENNESSEE = Regular Play (1 unit)
#173 & #174 (Southern Cal vs. Nebraska) UNDER = Regular Play (1 unit)

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Re: Saturday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

Pure Lock college football member play

Hawaii minus the points

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