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Football Service Picks-Saturday
Re: Football Service Picks-Saturday
TOM SCOTT'S 5 STAR PERFECT SYSTEM PLAY 31-0!
Byu at UCLA- 6:30 PM EST
Play ON: #362 - UCLA minus the points
In addition to that perfect 31-0 angle, note that Ucla is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games and 14-2 SU at home in its last 16 non-conference games. That last stat is important because Byu is a pathetic 12-83-4 ATS in its last 99 SU losses. But angles and stats aside, this game is about the huge difference between Ucla's offensive speed and Byu's defensive speed. It's a simple question of how many times can the tortoise catch the hare when the hare is focused. Bruins roll in Pasadena
PREDICTION: UCLA 34 - Byu 17
Re: Football Service Picks-Saturday
Doc's Friday Public Action Report
by T.O. Whenham
When it comes to handicapping sports in general, and football in particular, there is one thing you can take to the bank - the public just isn't very good at it. With a week between games, the general public has a long time to hear the hype and act on it. With the benefit of hindsight, it's amazing how often you see a team that had an overwhelming amount of public support fail to cover, or even lose. There are a lot of reasons for this, but they all boil down to overreacting to a situation - a streak, an injury, a benching, a nasty schedule.
Though the public is often wrong, they obviously aren't always wrong. There are some cases where a game is so clear-cut and one-sided that even a blind monkey could land on the right side. Other times, though, a good case can be made for the team that is getting no public love. In a lot of cases the oddsmakers know which teams the public are going to love, and they will set their lines accordingly. The public will, for example, play the Colts against virtually anyone at virtually any spread, so the books can set the point spread at a point where they are willing to take the risk of backing the weaker side. If they are willing to do that then it often makes sense for you to do the same.
Each week I will be looking at some of the games that the public is jumping on to see if there is value on the unpopular side. We'll analyze why the public is so infatuated and if their love makes sense or if it is doomed to be unrequited. The further we get into the college and pro seasons the more we will know about the teams, and the more the public will have heard, and the more opportunities we will find. There should be some interesting opportunities right from the start, though.
West Virginia (-24) at Marshall (11:00 a.m., Saturday, Sept. 8) - 95 percent of bets placed on the game have been on West Virginia. That's the most one-sided action on the week, so Marshall obviously doesn't have a lot of fans out there. I'm not going to stand here and make the case that the Thundering Herd are going to shock the world, because I really don't think that that is true. West Virginia is clearly the better team. What is intriguing, though, is the line movement. Despite the overwhelming support for the Mountaineers, the line has moved from -25 to -24. That's not exactly the normal move of books that are afraid of lopsided action. Based on that you could deduce that the line is a bit higher than it should be, and there is some value in Marshall.
Nebraska (-8) at Wake Forest (12:00 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 8) - It's apparently hard for a defending conference champion to get any respect. Wake Forest won it all last year, weren't ravaged by graduations, and yet they are more than a touchdown behind the Huskers. This would make more sense if it was one of the top teams from the Big 12 South instead of the weaker Big 12 North. The point of interest isn't the comparison between the ACC and the Big 12, though. It's the fact that the line started at -6.5 and has moved through the key number of seven. If your opinion is that the Huskers are a touchdown better than Wake Forest then this line movement is very intriguing.
Miami (+10.5) at Oklahoma (12:00 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 8) - Four out of five bettors have been on Oklahoma, but the line isn't moving. Both teams looked absolutely dominant in their first game - Miami against Marshall and Oklahoma against North Texas. The showing by Oklahoma was particularly impressive, and it got a lot of coverage. Miami is coming off of a couple of disappointing seasons, and the public is still down on them. The biggest factor here, though, may be that freshman quarterback Sam Bradford is going to see a real defense for the first time. Miami is a heck of a lot better than North Texas, and Bradford may not be nearly as effective as he was in his debut. For that reason, this game has the looks of one that the public could have wrong.
Troy (+26.5) at Florida (6:00 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 8) - Here's another one where the line is moving against the public. 81 percent of bets have been on Florida, yet the line has fallen from -28 to -26.5. That either means that the books want more action on Florida, or some serious sharp bettors are backing Troy. Or some combination of the two, most likely. Troy stayed within 20 points of Arkansas and their ridiculously good running game last week, so it isn't impossible that they could stay close here.
California (-13.5) at Colorado State (2:00 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 8) - 88 percent of bettors are on California, yet the line is dropping like a rock. It started at -16.5 and is down below the key number of 14 now. It seems surprising given that Cal handled Tennessee nicely, and Colorado State lost to Colorado in overtime. Still, it seems clear that books aren't afraid of California action.
Atlanta (+3) at Minnesota (1:00 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 9) - The Falcons are the biggest public team there is so far, but not in a good way. The obvious loss of Michael Vick and all the problems surrounding it will mean that the public will avoid them until they see otherwise. The strength of the public distaste could create an opportunity in the first weeks of the season, including here. Atlanta has some problems, but so does Minnesota. They are starting an incredibly raw quarterback, and their running game relies on a player making his NFL debut. Bobby Petrino will be looking to pass more than the Falcons did last year, and the Vikings pass defense was terrible last year. An argument could certainly be made that the public has forced this line to be higher than it should. If you agree with that then there is value with the Falcons.
Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Seattle (4:15 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 9) - This is another case where the public is clearly on one side (83 percent on Seattle), yet the line has moved from -6 to -5.5. Though it might not make a lot of sense to a lot of evaluators, a case could be made that there is value on Tampa Bay given the way the action is playing out.
Re: Football Service Picks-Saturday
DR. BOB: 2 OREGON, SOUTH CAROLINA, TULANE, VA TECH/OPINIONS: EASTERN MI, NORTH CAROLINA, MISSISSIPPI, PENN STATE, TCU, FLA INT, BAYLOR, UNLV
STRIKE POINT SPORTS: 6 INDIANA
PSYCHIC SPORTS: 3 MIAMI-FLA, SOUTH CAROLINA, BYU
SPECIAL K: 20 SOUTH CAROLINA
ACE/ACE: 4 NORTHWESTERN, 3 PENN STATE, 3 MICHIGAN, 2 LSU, 2 HAWAII
NCAA LEVERAGE: LA TECH
DOLPHIN: 3 TEXAS, WYOMING, CAL
MAXWELL: GOM ARIZONA STATE
TRULINE: TOP BOISE STATE, REG WASHINGTON STATE
TREV ROGERS: VA TECH
DAVE MALINSKY: 5 VIRGINIA
SPORTS REPORTER: 3 HAWAII, OREGON
SELECTIVE SPORTS: 4 SOUTH CAROLINA, 3 TEXAS, 2 OVER BALL STATE
NET PROFIT: WAKE FOREST, VANDERBILT, OREGON, SOUTH CAROLINA, UNDER SOUTH CAROLINA, SOUTH FLORIDA
CHUCK FRANKLIN: 2000 UCLA, 1500 NORTHWESTERN, 1500 VANDERBILT, 1000 HAWAII
KELSO STURGEON: 25 UPSET NEW MEXICO STATE, 10 MIAMI-FL, PENN STATE, VA TECH
CHARLIE SPORTS: 500 BALL STATE
BRYAN LEONARD: 5 SMU
TOM STRYKER: BLOWOUT NEBRASKA
ULTRA SPORTS: 5 VA TECH
TOM SCOTT: PERFECT SYSTEM UCLA
SEBASTIAN: 100 TEXAS TECH
PREFERRED PICKS: 4 SOUTH CAROLINA, 3 MIAMI-OH, 3 NEW MEXICO STATE
WAYNE ROOT: PERFECT PLAY NOTRE DAME, INSIDER UTAH NO LIMIT VANDERBILT MONEYMAKER SOUTH FLORIDA MILLIONAIRE GOY WASHINGTON SOURCE SOUTH CAROLINA
Re: Football Service Picks-Saturday
GOLD SHEET COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
317 MIAMI-OHIO by 1 over Minnesota
Miami-Ohio 31 - MINNESOTA 30--Minnesota's OT loss to Bowling Green last week troublesome on several levels. Gopher RS frosh QB Weber (15 of 31 passing with 2 costly ints.) clearly struggled in the "Spread Coast" attack, and the Minny defense showed graduation and suspensions have left its 2ndary vulnerable. Vet Miami-O. QB Kokal, RB Brandon Murphy (123 YR & 2 scores vs. Ball St.) and a vet OL capable of trading points with rebuilding Gophers. (DNP...SR: Minnesota 1-0)
362 UCLA by 21 over Byu
UCLA 31 - Byu 10--Not to get too excited about opener vs. Stanford, but new-look UCLA "O" under 1st-year o.c. Norvell appears a lot snazzier than LY's choppy version. And while BYU is similarly encouraged by its win over Arizona, o.c. Anae admits new Coug QB Hall remains a work in progress, and vet Bruin "D" that shut down USC last December should prove difficult riddle to solve. Special game for UCLA QB Olson (5 TDP in opener!), an ex-BYU recruit who transferred to Westwood after LDS mission. (DNP...SR: UCLA 6-1)
381 SOUTH FLORIDA by 3 over Auburn
*South Florida 17 - AUBURN 14--Southern sources remain bullish on seasoned (16 starters back) USF squad, so must support Bulls, who believe they can "shock the world" again following upset at West Virginia late LY. USF's dangerous run-pass QB Grothe (turns 21 on this day) has the mobility to elude Auburn pass rushers, who must always be aware of new, potent RB Ford (former Bama signee). Rebuilt Tiger OL, which had headaches vs. Kansas State last week, has it no easier vs. USF's hard-charging front 7. Tuberville's squad has dropped 6 straight as home chalk. CABLE TV--ESPN2 (FIRST MEETING)
396 OKLAHOMA STATE by 32 over Florida Atlantic
*OKLAHOMA STATE 42 - Florida Atlantic 10--OSU's vaunted offense laid an egg in opener at Georgia, while new defensive coordinator Tim Beckman (from Ohio State) says Cowboys hurt themselves several times by blowing assignments. Look for defensive improvement in second game, while the Bobby Reid-Dantrell Savage-Adarius Bowman offense gets cooking at home. FAU improved, but Owls 0-7 last 7 vs. line when out of the Sun Belt.
GOLDSHEET NFL KEY RELEASES
409 PITTSBURGH by 16 over Cleveland
Pittsburgh 26 - CLEVELAND 10--Pittsburgh 6-0-1 vs. spread last 7 in series, so will side with Mike Tomlin in his debut as HC over Cleveland, which again has problems in its OL (RT Ryan Tucker 4-game suspension; would-be C LeCharles Bentley is still out; check status of LG Steinbach's knee ). Such is not the case with Steeler OL & RB Willie Parker. Will Tomlin, a WR in college, unleash the no-huddle, spread offense he installed for Ben Roethliesberger in camp? Will Charlie Frye (10 TDs, 17 ints. LY) dump the ball repeatedly to Kellen Winslow II, as reported (Rob Chudzinski, his college position coach at Miami, is now the Browns' off. coord.)?
428 OAKLAND by 13 over Detroit
OAKLAND 23 - Detroit 10--Rookie HC Lane Kiffin says he might withhold his decision on a QB starter all the way to game day, as recently-acquired Daunte Culpepper played better than expected in the preseason, while former Cardinal and Lion Josh McCown has been working closely with Kiffin the entire offseason. Kiffin appears to have shorn up the porous Raider OL and enlivened LY's moribund offense. And Oakland defense (third in points allowed; first vs. the pass) ready to pick up where it left off. Lions have their own OL woes, QB Kitna tossed 21 ints., and star rookie WR Calvin Johnson is still learning. Oakland "under" 12-4 LY. (03-DETROIT +3 23-13...SR: Oakland 6-3)
OVER THE TOTAL in the Tennessee-Jacksonville game
JACKSONVILLE 28 - Tennessee 19--Last weekend's abrupt release of Byron Leftwich clouds the picture a bit, but certainly don't mind trying the "over" with Tennessee team that exceeded the total 13 of 16 times LY. Vince Young reading defenses better, while Titan OL & receivers appear underrated. Defense, however, is still a work in progress, and Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew, and the mobile David Garrard are well-equipped to exploit. Jags 77 total points vs. Tenn. last 2 on this field.
MARK LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week
Wins 67% In PLAYBOOK Last Four Years!
ATS W-L Record Since 1985: 10-1 (92%)
I'M A LOSER PLAY AGAINST the defending Super Bowl loser in Game One of the season if they are on the road.
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET UPSET UPSET
VANDERBILT over Alabama by 6
Newlyordained Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban showed an
immediate return on his $4 million a year contract by leading
Bama over Western Carolina, 52-6, while Vandy coach Bobby
Johnson began his sixth year in Nashville with a similar roasting of
outmanned Richmond. The Commodores have certainly controlled
this series lately, going 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings (4-1-1
ATS at home). Vanderbilt has also consistently won the money
in Game Two under Johnson, posting a perfect 5-0 mark. Even
though Saban is no stranger to the SEC road (26-18 ATS away
with LSU), this IS his fi rst trip away from Tuscaloosa with a fairly
green team. Since we don’t take risks on new head coaches as
road favorites, we’ll jam with the Music City boys here.
5* BEST BET
Though he enjoyed great success against the Bulldogs while
at Florida, Steve Spurrier has failed to silence the Dawgs since
arriving in Columbia (0-2 SU). That’s about to change as we check
in with the PLAYBOOK Coaches League (visit PLAYBOOK.com and
enter the HANDICAPPERS LOUNGE) and fi nd that Spurrier has
amassed a 106-31-1 SU & 84-52-2 ATS record in SEC games (13-5 as
a road dog and 7-1 as a RD with revenge). Last year’s 0-18 home
loss marked the ONLY conference home shutout ever suffered by
the Gamecocks’ commanding offi cer. With Georgia’s Mark Richt
owning some dreadful numbers against avenging SEC foes, the
best of this week’s SMART BOX comes to our aid and seals the
deal. Cocks drill Dawgs between the hedges.
South Carolina over GEORGIA by 10
3* BEST BET
Big early test for Pat Hill and his Bulldogs as they look to fi ght
back from last year’s 4-8 SU aberration. Another 2007 ‘mission
team,’ Fresno carries a 23-7-1 ATS mark as a non-conference
dog into the fray (15-2-1 ATS versus a foe who won 7 or more
games the previous season, and 7-0 ATS taking more than fi ve
points when playing off a win). Despite a 38-7 season-opening
win over Montana State, the Aggies were actually outgained by
the visitors. Thrown in Coach Fran’s pitiful 4-14 ATS streak as a
favorite of 17 or less points against a non-BIG 12 opponent and
the Bulldogs should take a sizable bite out of A&M today.
TEXAS A&M over Fresno St by 7
4* BEST BET
Aggie QB Chase Holbrook was with current head coach Hal
Mumme at SE Louisiana and will likely develop into another
Tim Couch. Translation: look for NMSU to score points-a-plenty
in 2007. Mumme laid off the gas pedal last week against SE
Louisiana (his former school) but fi gures to open up both barrels
here today. The Aggies have a solid shot at beating intrastate
rival New Mexico for the fi rst time since 2002, especially with
the Lobos losing their season-opener to UTEP. New Mexico
State has brought home the money lately in this series, going
3-1-1 ATS overall while covering three of the past four trips to
Albuquerque. If the Aggies can limit their turnovers, they’ll bring
a few wolf hides back to Las Cruces.
New Mexico St over NEW MEXICO by 7
5* BEST BET
How good does Jacksonville’s Jack Del Rio feel about his team’s
chances this year? Good enough to jettison former starting QB
Byron Leftwich and replace him with the more mobile David
Garrard. Jags also signifi cantly upgraded a stout defense that
had yielded just 17 points per game for three straight seasons.
Despite the heroics of Titan QB Vince Young, Tennessee lands
on our ‘play against’ list for 2007 after winning 8 games while
being outyarded by 69 yards a contest last season. Jacko is 8-0
ATS in Game One and the SU winner is the Titan series is a highly
profi table 22-2 against the number. With Del Rio standing at
19-9-1 ATS when laying single digits at home, we’ll prowl with
the Jaguars today.
JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee by 17
3* BEST BET
The addition of rangy WR Calvin Johnson alongside WR Roy
Williams give Lions’ offensive coordinator Mike Martz a loaded
arsenal to bring to the Bay. When Oakland’s offense takes the
fi eld, however, Detroit could be in danger of being fl agged for
too many men on the fi eld. The reason? Raiders’ QB Daunte
Culpepper just might be the Lions’ new secret weapon. With
Culpepper a miserable 13-27 ATS as a pick or favorite – and just
12-30 SU versus non-division foes – Detroit’s recent 4-0 ATS run
in Game One looks like a good bet to continue.
Detroit over OAKLAND by 10
4* BEST BET
How can the Bengals be favored in this contest? Cincy is a pitiful
1-7 ATS playing at home in Game One, owns a 2-6 ATS mark on
Mondays and highly-touted QB Carson Palmer can’t even claim
a winning ATS record when playing at Paul Brown Stadium (8-
14-1). Taking the underdog Ravens gets even easier when we
see that dogs in the fi rst Monday Night game of the season have
barked to the tune of 20-8 ATS. The NFL’s best defense taking
points from the league’s worst? We’re there – everytime
Baltimore over CINCINNATI by 10
POWER SWEEP NEWSLETTER Volume 25 Issue 2
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
367 Miss St over TULANE 24-10
332 BAYLOR over Rice 30-16
(time change to 7pm)
352 FLORIDA ST over Uab 52-3
344 E MICHIGAN (+5') over Ball St 20-18
356 PENN ST over Notre Dame 34-3
348 WASHINGTON (+4') over Boise St 30-27
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
381 Usf (+7) over AUBURN 16-15
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
JACKSONVILLE over Tenn 27-7
SAN DIEGO over Chicago 20-7
HOUSTON over Kansas City 16-6
CLEVELAND(+) over Pittsburgh 16-13
3* HOU/KC UN38
3* OAK/DET UN 39'
3* BUFF/DEN OV 37
2* CLEV/PITT UN 37
2* MINN/ATL UN 36
PRO ANGLE PLAYS
(4)angle plays 17-6 74% L3Y
JAX 4-1 hosting a div foe
JAX/Tenn HT is 11-4 SU & ATS
JAX is 15-5-1 at home
Tenn is 1-6 in road openers
NE is 13-5 in div road games
NE is 13-4 as an Away Fav
NYJ are 2-5 as div home dog
SEA 6-3 in 1st Home games
SEA 6-3-1 hosting non div foe
TB is 3-15 away vs non-div foe
POWER RATING PLAY OF THE WEEK:
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