College Football: Home Dogs and Betting Against the Public (2003-2006)

College Football: Home Dogs and Betting Against the Public (2003-2006)

College Football Dogs and Home Dogs

Bettors often talk about underdogs.  How have dogs done over the past few years in college football?  And what about "home dogs?"  Table 1 shows the results contained in our database since 1998.  We purposely show results over individual years to highlight how performance can jump around -- even over entire seasons.   

Table 1 – College Football Dogs and Home Dogs

Period Dogs Home Dogs
1998-2006 50.1% 51.8%
2001 52.4% 49.3%
2002 50.2% 50.0%
2003 48.3% 51.4%
2004 52.1% 60.2%
2005 51.4% 50.7%
2006 51.0% 48.7%
Last 4 Years (2003-2006) 50.1% 52.5%

Here are some key "takeaways" from the chart:

The results continue to validate previous academic research -- that there is a bias towards underdogs, and in particular, home dogs.
The results show that although there is a bias, the sports marketplace is relatively efficient, so that the vig is difficult to overcome.
Performance can fluctuate dramatically.  Similar to the investment world, past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results. 
In this article, we highlighted all 2003-2006 periods in yellow to make comparison more convenient amongst the various approaches and tables.
Home Dogs Getting Points

Table 2 shows the performance of Home Dogs receiving a given amount of points.  The past two years have been mediocre for this strategy.     

Table 2: College Football Home Dogs Receiving X Points

Period 0.5 or More Pts 3 or More 7 or More 14 or More
2003-2006 52.5% 52.4% 52.4% 52.9%
2003 51.4% 52.7% 52.8% 51.0%
2004 60.2% 58.0% 61.2% 57.4%
2005 50.7% 49.1% 45.9% 46.2%
2006 48.7% 50.0% 49.6% 56.8%



Betting Against the Public -- on Home Dogs

Last year, we saw that combining "Betting Against the Public" with betting on "Home Dogs" -- was a profitable betting strategy.  We updated this information to include the 2006 season and present the results in Table 2's format for comparison purposes. 

Table 3: College Football Home Dogs and Betting Against the Public (30% Level)

Period 0.5 or More Pts 3 or More 7 or More 14 or More
2003-2006 54.7% 53.4% 53.4% 54.7%
2003 60.0% 58.7% 58.5% 53.1%
2004 60.6% 58.8% 59.3% 56.8%
2005 51.0% 48.3% 47.6% 53.1%
2006 50.0% 50.0% 50.6% 56.8%

The Hog
useravatar
Offline
3330 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
44363
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
275722
Average Posts Per Hour:
4.0
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3466
Newest User:
Eleazer L. Erandio
Members Online:
0
Guests Online:
1800

Online: 
There are no members online

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com