2007 NFL Mock Draft
2007 NFL Mock Draft
2007 NFL Mock Draft
by Robert Ferringo
"Advice is judged by results, not by intentions."
I feel like this quote is the epitome of what handicapping is all about - results. Intentions are the cousins of excuses, and what actually happens supercedes what we want to happen. Whether it's in sports, betting, or any other aspect of life, this is as true as the sunrise.
OK, so what does this have to do with my 2007 NFL Mock Draft? I've gotten a ton of emails - from the accusatory to the appreciative - regarding my first two versions. But I just want to be clear about what the point of this exercise actually is. Not only my intentions but the results I hope to glean from it.
My basic idea is simple: first and foremost I want to entertain you while you're wasting time at a job that you probably resent. And second, I want to get you to look at your team and other teams around the NFL from a different perspective. I'm not trying to pacify my readers or fill their heads with pie-in-the-sky ideas. And to be honest, I don't care how many first round picks I get right. Mock drafts are like setting up dominos; if one misfires then the whole setup is a waste.
Contrary to popular belief, the draft is much less a reflection of the players taken as it is a demonstration of the state of the franchise and team that does the selecting. Who your team chooses, and when, says a ton about how they view next year's squad. There is a lot of innuendo and insight that can be extracted by simply watching how teams handle themselves and what weaknesses they address on this day, and that can be just as important to any bettor as the fact that some unknown offensive tackle from Eastern Michigan went late in the first round. It's a telling time, and you'll find that you're instincts - not the ones spoon-fed to you by ESPN afterwards - about teams on Draft Day are usually pretty close to how teams perform during the season. I'm talking about the whole team, not just their picks.
The NFL Draft will take place in eight days. It commences on my birthday, Saturday, April 28, and retires on Sunday, April 29 in New York City. This may or may not be my final Mock (depends on my schedule for next week) but for right now this is how I see things shaking out. Again, at this stage of the mock I'm still going primarily on whom I think teams should take as opposed to solely whom they might take.
And without further ado, here's Doc's Sports' 2007 NFL Mock Draft Version 3.1:
1. Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
Been saying Russell since January so I'm not changing my mind now. Though I think it's ridiculous to get a quarterback who excels at downfield throws and then put him behind a line that's easier to get through than a condom that's gone through a blender.
2. Detroit Lions - Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
It's not that I'm backing off from my Detroit-Atlanta trade (though I think I'm the only one pimping it right now). I just don't think that Matt Millen is intelligent or competent enough to maneuver any sort of deal out of this spot and still land the player they desperately need (Brady Quinn). After several busts in free agency the offensive line is still a wreck. This is a very safe pick.
3. Cleveland Browns - Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
I was at a bar when I heard about Reuben Droughns being traded and the first thought that went through my head was, "Man, our waitress' chest is HUGE. Are those real?" My second thought was, "Now I gotta listen to all these dumbass Giants fans tell me how good Droughns is for six months." My third thought: "I guess that means the Browns want Adrian Peterson."
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
This may even put a smug smile on Chucky Gruden's face. It will definitely be enough to make Johnson roll up a fat joint and go to work. Oh, and pencil Johnson in for 175 and two touches in Week 7 in Detroit. That may also be the day that Ford Field gets burned to ashes.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
The Cardinals will be screwed if this is what they end up with because they desperately need an offensive lineman or some bulk on the D-line. The best-case scenario is that the Lions don't take Thomas and he falls here. Unless Gruden decides to be a dick and grab JT. Ken Whisenhunt isn't sure if he wants to go with a 4-3 or a 3-4, but Adams can rush the passer in either set.
6. Washington Redskins - Laron Landry, S, LSU
The Skins ditched Cyber Archuleta and sent Troy Vincent back to the Smithsonian. Landry fills a need and is the best secondary player in the draft. Also, since he's been in Louisiana for the past two years he's probably had some experience with automatic weapons. That should endear him to Sean Taylor.
7. Minnesota Vikings - Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
In the, "Um, OK" Pick that happens in the Top 10 every year the Vikings will snag Mel Kiper Jr.'s wet dream. Allegedly the Vikings are still high on Tarvaris Jackson. But that's why they're the Vikings. Either way, as a Bears fan I couldn't be happier at the prospect of facing either QB twice a year for the next few seasons.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
The Falcons are hoping that the Skins grab a D-lineman and that Landry falls. If not, Bobby Petrino selects a kid he's familiar with. Okoye's rookie hazing will include cleaning Ron Mexico's bong and reciting lines from "Half Baked" on cue.
9. Miami Dolphins - Jamal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
It would be tough to pass on Levi Brown here and I'm not really sure if Cam Cameron would do that. But their defensive line is full of guys that would get the senior citizen discount at Disneyworld. Anderson is a beast and would be a nice building block for the defense.
10. Houston Texans - Levi Brown, OT, Penn State
Though I do have it down in this mock I think it would be a minor upset if Brown made it past Atlanta and Miami. He'd be a strong pickup for the Texans who, after the Matt Schaub trade, don't pick again until roughly 2011. If Brown is gone you can pencil in Leon Hall.
11. San Francisco - Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
After watching Branch break dance - including a rad pike freeze - in an ESPN feature on him I'm convinced he should be a Top 10 pick. However, his stock is dropping as his waist expands. Now instead of talking about his sweet moves they're talking about his Bust Potential. Would love to see San Fran get a wideout here but I don't think it's going to happen.
12. Buffalo Bills - Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss
With London Fletcher gone and TKO Spikes on his way out the Bills have a huge hole here. Fortunately Willis excels at filling holes (try to ignore how pornographic that sounds) and would be a very strong get for Buffalo.
13. St. Louis Rams - Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
This would be somewhat of a coup if the Rams land a guy projected in the Top 10. I would love to see St. Louis ignore their overmatched defense and grab Ted Ginn but I think Jim Haslett would spear Scott Linehan if that happened.
14. Carolina Panthers - Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
The Bitch-O-Meter will be off the charts if the Panthers don't grab TE Greg Olsen for Jake Delhomme. And even though the Panthers have a desperate need for linebackers they will improve their defense more by getting Mike Minter off the field than getting Nelson on it.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
I don't really get the buzz around Carriker, who strikes me as kind of a boring pick. But he has versatility and can play a few different spots in the 3-4. He'll likely fill in for Joey Porter, who at this moment is most likely heckling and throwing pickles at Levi Jones' kids.
16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
As much as I would love to see them address some defensive issues they have a tremendous need at running back. I'm sure Lynch will love it in Wisconsin. Honest.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida
Moss would get to stay in Florida - always a plus for a guy to stay in the state he made his name in - and he would be an excellent compliment to Reggie Hayward. I'll go on record saying Ted Ginn Jr. would be perfect here - but they won't take him.
18. Cincinnati Bengals - Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State
This is a bit high for a guy who only had one year as a starter under his belt before leaving early. But he is nasty. He hasn't had any "character issues" yet, which may drop him off Cincy's screen. But he did go to FSU and that's a great school for learning how to develop a criminal record.
19. Tennessee Titans - Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State
This is that pick that gets up to the podium in about 2.2 seconds. The Commissioner might not even be done reading the Bengals' selection when the Titans fly up to the podium and hand in their card. Ginn fits a big need for a kick returner and gives Vince Young a playmaker to go to now that Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade have taken their high-flying, thrill-a-minute skills elsewhere.
20. New York Giants - Paul Posluzny, LB, Penn State
As my good friend Nolan, a Giants fan and former gambling addict said about the G-Men when I was informing him of the anal raping his team is going to take in Soldiers Field this season: "If we don't draft a LB in the first round I won't be watching that game."
21. Denver Broncos - John Beason, LB, Miami
Now that Al Wilson is a cripple the Broncos are short a linebacker. D.J. Williams is awesome and he's a Miami product so I see Denver going back to the well. If they don't go for an LB I say they grab their highest-rated wideout.
22. Dallas Cowboys - Joe Staley, OT, Eastern Michigan
Right now the Cowboys have Marc Columbo and Flozell Adams as their offensive tackles. Not good, and no chance you're getting 16+ starts out of both next season. The Boys have picked nothing but defenders in the first round since 1997 but now they have a Golden Boy at QB that they might want to protect.
23. Kansas City Chiefs - Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
This is pretty much the best-case scenario for the Chiefs. Bowe is high on a lot of Wish Lists and could be a potential steal. Or he could be the next Snoop Minnis. Who knows? The Chiefs could use a corner here but I think they address their woeful wideout situation with either Bowe or Robert Meachem.
24. New England Patriots - Michael Griffin, S, Texas
This is a bit of a reach here (only by a few slots) but also a savvy move by the Pats front office because they know that Philadelphia needs a safety and Griffin won't be around for NE's next pick. Griffin is just a player, and a winner, so he'll fit right in.
25. New York Jets - Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
It's going to be awfully tough to lay off one of the top corners still on the board. But they're getting really good value here on a potential big-time playmaker. Jets tight ends tallied just 37 catches last year while some other big-mouthed ex-Miami TE across the city stole a headline or two.
26. Philadelphia Eagles - Darelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
The Eagles will have gotten kicked in the nuts if Bowe and Griffin get taken right in front of them. I know that a lot of teams have Aaron Ross rated ahead of Revis but I think Philly stays in-state and takes a guy they're familiar with…
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27. New Orleans Saints - Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
…And as a result the Saints end up with the top corner (in my view) on the board. The Saints corners are still having nightmares about Bernard Berrian. I'm still having nightmares about Rex Grossman.
28. New England Patriots - Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
They need a linebacker, and a defensive lineman never hurt. But I think they grab Ross as insurance for the whole Asante Samuel situation.
29. Baltimore Ravens - Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn
This guy is big, bad, and mean. He'll fit right in. USC center Ryan Kalil is an option here but I think they take the more thuggish of the two.
30. San Diego Chargers - Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
The Chargers need wideouts and would get a solid one here. And by "need wideouts" I just mean that LT gets sick of high-fiving the guys that the Chargers have now after he scores. He's looking for a new pair of hands to slap and Meachem's are a pretty good size.
31. Chicago Bears - Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee
As much as I'd love to see my boys grab a wideout or see a stud OLB I think getting Harrell would be sweet. The guy is an animal and played a game with his bicep hanging off the bone. Alfonso Boone is gone, Ian Scott has one foot out the door and Tank is in jail. Things aren't looking so hot on the D-line right about now. We still need OL, WR, and LB (in that order) but we'll address that later.
32. Indianapolis Colts - Tank Tyler, DT, Indianapolis
The Colts were a bit soft up front from September to December before tightening up in the playoffs. But they lost Montae Reagor to free agency and Corey Simon is off the reservation, so they're now extremely thin up front.
Oh, and I still think Peyton Manning is a Choker and a damn poser!!!!
(I really don't, but you wouldn't believe how pissed Colts fans still get about anyone critiquing their team. It's great fun.)