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Bader vs. Nogueira Pick

ryan bader vs rogerio nogueria prediction

The co-main event of UFC 119 on Saturday is a light heavyweight contest between Ryan Bader and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.

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Bader enters the fight as the favorite with a betting line of -170 while Nogueria has been given a line of +140 according to online sports book Sportsbook.com. Here is a closer look at both fighters heading into this bout, which will take place from Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana at 10PM ET on Pay Per-View.
Ryan Bader (11-0):
Strengths
: Bader is undefeated in his relatively young career. The former All-American wrestler is strong in his grappling and fighting on the ground. He has 5 KO victories in his career, but most are due to ground and pound. Bader also has good cardio, which allows him to slowly ware down his opponents.
Weaknesses: Bader has not been tested by elite level fighters in his career. He did defeat Keith Jardine at UFC 110 by KO, but Jardine has had a weak chin for a number of years. Bader will have to show he can handle the mental pressure of fighting in the spotlight while also going through adversity when he fights the top guys in the division.
Last Five Fights:
Third round KO win over Keith Jardine at UFC 110 on Feb. 20, 2010

Unanimous decision win over Eric Schafer at UFC 104 on Oct. 24, 2010

Unanimous decision win over Carmelo Marrero at UFC Fight Night 18 on April 1, 2009

First round TKO win over Vinny Magalhaes at The Ultimate Fighter 8 Finale on Dec. 13, 2008

First round submission win over Buckley Acosta at XCC 6 on April 5, 2008

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (19-3):
Strengths: The brother of heavyweight Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria, Lil’ Nog as he is called, is a very strong submission fighter but has much better striking than his brother and tends to rely on his striking in fights. He has won his last seven bouts, four of which have come by knockout. Nogeuira has also fought some of the best fighters in the world in multiple divisions, so he will not be intimidated by Bader.
Weaknesses: Nogueria has struggled with bigger fighters that have strong wrestling ability, including his last fight, where he narrowly beat Jason Brilz, who was a big underdog coming into the fight. Nogeuira doesn’t have a lot of explosiveness and isn’t quite as light on his feet as the average light heavyweight.
Last Five Fights:
Split decision win over Jason Brilz at UFC 114 on May 29, 2010

First round TKO win over Luis Cane on UFC 106 on Nov. 21, 2009

Third round submission win over Dion Staring at JF13 on May 9, 2009

Second round KO win over Vladimir Matyushenko at Affliction 2 on Jan. 24, 2009

Unanimous decision win over Moise Rimbon at Sengoku – Sixth Battle on Nov. 1, 2008

Who will win: Bader can win this fight if his nerves are in check and he fights a smart fight. Bader has to close the distance and not let this bout turn into a boxing match. We think Bader will use his explosive wrestling to get the fight to the ground and grind out a decision over Nogueira.
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