|UFC 130 Picks & Predictions: Thiago Alves vs. Rick Story|
|Written by Drew Sharper|
|Saturday, 28 May 2011 16:00|
Alves vs. Story Free Pick
Alves enters UFC 130 as the favorite to win this contest according to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bodog.com as he has odds of -220 to win while Story has a money line of +180. UFC 130 takes place from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada and will air live on Pay-Per-View at 9PM ET.
WHY PICK ALVES
Alves (18-7) was a former No. 1 contender in the UFC welterweight division and he has faced much tougher opponents than Story in his career. Alves is a powerful striker with some of the best leg kicks in all of MMA. His punching is technically sound, but he does have one-punch KO power. Alves is a big 170-pound fighter as he will likely be closer to 190 pounds by the time the fight starts. His opponent, Rick Story, is taking on the biggest fight of his career, which could work into Alves’ favor as Story may have some nerves for the fight, while Alves should be very collected.
WHY PICK STORY
Story (12-3) is a grinder that likes to push the pace against his opponents. He is on a string of five-straight wins, with a lot of the credit to his victories going to the pressure he puts on his opponents. Story will have the grappling and wrestling edge in this fight, as Alves relies mostly on his striking. Story may lack in size in this fight, but he has shown the ability to thrive on his conditioning. Story has been pushed for 15 minutes in a number of his fights and found success. The key to Story winning this fight will be his ability to get Alves to the ground, where Alves has shown he can be controlled.
WHO TO PICK?
As promising as Story seems to be, my pick goes with Alves for this fight. Story is a good grappler, but he lacks the real explosion in his takedown attempts that will be able to get a man the size of Alves to the ground. I see Alves being able to keep the fight standing, where he will have the clear edge. Look for Story to succumb to strikes against Alves sometime in the second round.
UFC 130 FREE PICK: THIAGO ALVES -220