|UFC 129 Free Picks & Predictions: Lyoto Machida -325 vs. Randy Couture|
|Written by Drew Sharper|
|Saturday, 30 April 2011 15:00|
Couture vs. Machida Free Pick
Machida enters the fight as the clear favorite according to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bodog.com as he has odds of -325 while Couture has a money line of +250. UFC 129 takes place from the Rogers Centre and will air live on Pay-Per-View at 9PM ET.
WHY PICK COUTURE
Couture (19-10) is one of the top strategists in all of MMA as he always is able to find a weakness in his opponent that he can exploit. In the past Couture has asked to fight opponents where he has been the underdog, but still found a way to win decisively. The fact that he requested a fight with Machida tells me he knows of a weakness in the former champ that he feels he can capitalize on. Couture is also good at closing distances, which is what Machida wants to create for this fight. Machida is also on a two-fight losing streak and dealing with self doubt in terms of his style being effective enough to win.
WHY PICK MACHIDA
Machida (16-2) has a style like nobody else in MMA. A true karate fighter, Machida uses counter strikes very effectively as his punches have a lot of power and his kicks are devastating and come from different angles. Machida likes to work body kicks and knees to the body, which have been a problem for Couture in the past. Also, at 47, Couture won’t be as spry and quick as Machida, 32. Couture has also shown a weaker chin over the years, which doesn’t bode well against Machida, who can put fighters to sleep with a couple of strikes.
WHO TO PICK?
My heart says to go with Couture because of the storyline and because he seems to find ways to win the fights he shouldn’t, but my head says he is biting off more than he can chew against Machida. I like Lyoto to find a way to keep a distance for most of the fight and use his under rated grappling skills when Couture does get in the clinch. I pick Machida by decision.
UFC 129 FREE PICK: LYOTO MACHIDA -325