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Penn vs. Fitch Prediction

2011 UFC Picks and Predictions Fitch Penn

SYDNEY, Australia (TheSpread) – The main event of UFC 127 on Saturday night is a welterweight showdown between B.J. Penn and Jon Fitch. Here is a breakdown of my pick for this bout.

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Fitch enters the fight as the favorite according to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Sportsbook.com with betting odds of -200 while Penn comes in with odds of +160. UFC 127 takes place from Acer Arena and will air live on Pay-Per-View at 10PM ET.

WHY PICK FITCH

Jon Fitch (23-3) is 13-1 in his UFC career and he has not been stopped in his time in the octagon. He has ran through everyone in the division outside of Georges St. Pierre. Fitch grinds out wins, smothering opponents with his wrestling and ground and pound ability. He will be the bigger fighter in this bout as Penn is a natural lightweight and will likely weigh under the 170-pound limit at fight time.

WHY PICK PENN

Penn (16-7-1) is one of the most naturally gifted fighters in all of MMA. He has incredible flexibility that helps him avoid takedowns and allows him to apply difficult submissions that others can’t. On his feet, he has very quick and powerful hands and his recent work with Floyd Mayweather Sr. on his boxing has made him even more dangerous. Penn has handled bigger fighters before, but has struggled with stronger wrestlers. Penn will always be looking to finish the fight, while Fitch is more of a grinder that wins by decision. If the fight gets to the ground, it is likely in Fitch’s favor, but if the fight stays standing, Penn should be able to win.

WHO TO PICK?

Penn has more overall tools and skills, but this is a bad matchup for him. Fitch has the perfect game to defuse Penn, he will just have to avoid exchanging a lot of punches. Look for Fitch to force a lot of clinching early to tire out Penn’s arms before working takedowns in the later rounds in order to secure another decision victory.

UFC 127 FREE PICK: JON FITCH -200

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